DAVE COKIN
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MILWAUKEE BREWERS / SAN DIEGO PADRES
Take MILWAUKEE BREWERS
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The Brewers have had a rough go of it over the past month. But they finally have a little something going with back to back wins as they head to San Diego, and with three games against the Padres, it's an important opportunity for Milwaukee to try and make some lost ground in the NL Central chase. Chad Gaudin has been okay for the Padres and the team is on their own mini-roll, but I'll take my chances with Looper and the Brewers here.
Robert Ferringo
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Take Tampa Bay (-1.5) over Kansas City
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As long as the Royals keep trotting out Sir Sidney Ponson it continues to be a license to print money. Ponson has lost eight of his last nine starts and he is sporting a fat 6.79 ERA this season. This will be just his second road start since May 1 and away from home this year he has a 13.97 ERA. His counterpart, David Price, has been exceptional at home this year and will take advantage of the fact that Kansas City is just 6-17 against a lefty starter. Tampa Bay has won 22 of 29 meetings in Tampa Bay and is 23-8 overall in their series with the Royals. I look for that domination to continue after the Rays had a day off on Thursday and I think a good ass-kicking is in order.
Allen Eastman
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Take Under Seattle at Texas
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I think this number will be somewhere between 10 and 11 and I think it offers very good value. I don’t think that the Rangers would be pitching Vincente Padilla if he wasn’t fully recovered from the swine flu. The ‘under’ is 6-0 in his last six home starts and the ‘under’ is 45-16-3 overall in Rangers games. Seattle has been equally an ‘under’ club, going just 18-41-2 against the total in their last 61 games. I like this Jason Vargas kid for the M’s and I think that he’s continue his strong pitching. Four of the last five meetings have gone ‘under’.
Vegas Sports Informer
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Take New York Yankees over Chicago White Sox
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The Yankees have been on fire since the All Star break and I think it will continue in the Windy City this weekend. Clayton Richard will be on the mound for Chicago and he has really had an off-again, on-again season. But he’s been unbelievable in this last two starts going eight innings and giving up just one run in both outings. Therefore I think we can get ahead of the public here and bank on his inconsistency. Coming into this series the Yankees had won five of six in Chicago and 10 of 13 against the White Sox. I think their domination continues.
Dave Busk
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Take Boston -125 Over Baltimore
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This number should come out with the Red Sox's and Smoltz at about a (-140) favorite and while I'm not big on laying this much, we are helped out a little with it being in Maryland. Smoltz has had one good start in a Red Sox uniform and that came in Baltimore until a rain delay removed him from the game before the bullpen collapsed and the Orioles came back and won. Smoltz started against Baltimore in his most recent start and was waxed giving up six runs lasting just five innings. He did strike out six compared to just one walk. Smoltz will face struggling Baltimore starter Jeremy Guthrie who, this year is much different, as he has already giving up (23) home runs. Guthrie was roughed up in 6 2/3 innings giving up five runs on eight hits Saturday vs. the Sox's and I think Smoltz will get the better of him on Friday.
Nick Parsons
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Toronto Blue Jays / Oakland Athletics
Play Toronto Blue Jays
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With or without Halladay on their roster, the Blue Jays will look to end a miserable July on a high note Friday night when they open a three-game road series against the Oakland Athletics. Oakland returns home after splitting a four-game series at Boston. The A’s totaled 17 runs and 31 hits in consecutive wins before blowing a 4-1 lead Thursday en route to an 8-5 defeat and I look for it to stumble again this evening! Dallas Braden (7-9, 3.74) will take the mound for Oakland hoping to rebound from his worst start of the year. The left-hander was tagged for a season-high seven runs in 5 2-3 innings of a 7-5 road loss to the New York Yankees on Sunday. Look for TORONTO to improve to 8-7 (2.6 units) as a road dog of +100 to +125!
BIG AL
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Chicago Cubs at Florida Marlins
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The Cubs have taken over first place in the NL Central Division and they have to be feeling pretty good about the situation they are in right now. After a disappointing first half which featured numerous injuries to key players, the Cubs, although not fully healthy, have the services of almost all of their offensive players back, including first baseman Derrek Lee and third baseman Aramis Ramirez who both missed time before the All-Star Break. They've also just seen the return of starter Ryan Dempster to their rotation and although he got roughed a bit on Tuesday, that's to be expected as he shakes off some rust. Tonight the Cubbies will pin their hopes on another veteran righthander, Rich Harden. Harden says his problems in the first half of the season were due to poor mechanics and not anything related to yet another injury, and that he's corrected those flaws in his delivery. After a 2-0 start to the second half in which Harden's ERA is 0.95 in three starts, I'm going to take him at his word. When he's on and healthy, Harden possesses perhaps the nastiest stuff in the entire league. This would seem to be a great match-up for Harden, against the Marlins and young Chris Volstad. Volstad did have quality starts in the month of July against the Padres and Giants -- two NL West teams NOT known for their offensive prowess. Take the Cubs.
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Play on: Chicago Cubs
LT Profits
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Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds
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Aaron Cook is having another fine season for the Colorado Rockies as his fine sinker keeps balls out of the thin air when he pitches at home. He has been even better on the road, although the same cannot be said about the Colorado offense, which sets up this Under play when the Rockies visit the Cincinnati Reds.
Cook is 10-3 with a 3.87 ERA overall, and if you ate looking for a reason why someone that pitches half of his games at Coors Field can be so successful, look no further than his impressive 2.24 groundball/flyball ratio. His numbers are slightly better on the road, as you might expect, where he is 6-2 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He has also allowed three earned runs or less in four of his last five starts vs. the Reds.
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Now Cincinnati counters with Justin Lehr, who is making his Major League debut tonight. However, it appears Lehr has a good chance to be successful right out of the gate here. He was very impressive in the minors this season, going 13-3 with a 3.31 ERA and he is facing a Colorado offense that is not nearly as formidable on the road. The Rockies are only batting .241 as team away from home, and the fact that they are unfamiliar with Lehr should help his cause.
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Thus, look for both offenses to struggle tonight, resulting in a rather safe Under.
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Pick: Rockies/Reds Under 9
The Sports Investing Professional
There is really only one game to even consider on todays MLB. These matchups are terrible so I look to the hottest pitcher and that's the Cubs Rich Harden. He has been great his last 3 and great throughout his career at night so with all things considered the price is real good.
Chicago Cubs -120
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Texas Rangers -1.5 +117
The Rangers crushed the Mariners 7-1 last night to improve to 4-0 at home against them this season and 7-3 in all meetings. I expect this domination to continue as the M's just don't have the fire power to compete. The M's are averaging just 3.9 runs per game on the road while the Rangers are scoring 5.4 runs per game at home on the season. Seattle is only 3-14 revenging a road blowout loss vs. an opponent of 6 runs or more over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 3.6 to 5.8. Texas is 17-6 in home games against left-handed starters this season, winning by an average score of 6.3 to 3.4 in these games. Lastly, Padilla is 12-4 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons, with the Rangers winning by an average score of 6.4 to 4.1 in these spots. Cash in with the Rangers on the run line.
Tom Freese
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Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
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Boston starter John Smoltz has a better than 4 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. Boston is 24-10 vs. AL East teams. The Red Sox are 32-15 in Game 1 of a series and they are 4-1 their last 5 Friday games. Baltimore starter Jeremy Guthrie has more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts. Baltimore is 17-47 vs. AL East teams. The Orioles are 0-8 in Game 1 of a series and they are 6-15 on Friday. PLAY ON BOSTON -
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
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The Texas Rangers who are known for always having a very strong offense have been finding themselves in much lower scoring games. They are facing a Seattle Mariners team who are scoring just 3.8 runs per game and allowing just 4.3 runs this season. Three of the four meetings this year in Arlington have resulted in UNDER’s. With the total set at 10, we recommend playing the UNDER tonight.
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Play on: UNDER
Vernon Croy
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Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and I look for the Orioles to hit John Smoltz (1-4, 7.04 ERA) hard tonight. Smoltz has struggled over 6 starts this season with an ERA of 7.04 and pitching with just 4 days rest will not help him tonight. The Orioles lit up Smoltz in his last outing as he allowed 9 hits and 6 earned runs over just 5 innings and I look for the Orioles to hit him hard again tonight. There is a reason why the Atlanta Braves departed with Smoltz, his fastball is not as good as it use to be and he has given up 42 hits over just 30.7 innings this season. The Red Sox are just 1-5 in Smoltz's last 6 starts and they are just 1-4 in their last 5 road games as a favorite. Jeremy Guthrie (7-9, 5.21) has only allowed more than 3 earned runs just once over 10 home starts this season and I look for him to have a solid start at home tonight. Take the Baltimore Orioles Friday night.
Tommy Gill
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Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Under 8.5 for 2 units
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Today we are getting a gutted Pitt team with no offense do to trades against a Washington team that has struggled to put up runs this season especially on the road. Both pitchers in this game are 29-11 combined to the Under this season. Lannan for Washington is their best pitcher by far on their team while Ohlendorf has pitched well for Pitt. Both teams are on major runs to the Under this season with Pitt 21-7-2 in their last 30 games to the Under. The Under is also 11-3 in Pittsburgh last 14 home games and 39-17-2 when facing a lefty. The Under is 7-1 in Lannans last 8 starts on the road and with Washington as a favorite they are 12-1 to the under their last 13 games. I believe we are getting a great spot for the under today with these two teams but not knowing the ump for the game is the reason for a free play.
THE SPREAD
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, 7:05PM ET
Boston is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Baltimore
Boston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Pick: Boston
Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets, 7:10PM ET
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 11 games on the road
NY Mets are 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
NY Mets are 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Arizona
Pick: New York
New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox, 8:11PM ET
NY Yankees are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games when playing Chi White Sox
NY Yankees are 10-5 SU in their last 15 games on the road
Chi White Sox are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games
Chi White Sox are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home
Pick: Chicago