Wunderdog
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Washington at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh +110
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It's hard to even consider backing the Nationals on the road as a favorite, under any circumstances. They have their best pitcher in John Lannon on the hill, but it begins and ends there. The Nats, even with Lannon on the mound are still just 3-6 in his nine starts on the road. The Nats have been the worst road team against righthand pitching, perhaps of all time. They come into this one with an 11-51 mark in their last 62 games - not numbers that exude confidence with a favorite. Russ Olendorf has been steadily improving for the Pirates as they have now won five straight home starts with him as a home dog. It looks like a live dog here, so I'll go with the Pirates here.
Freddy Wills
Take WAS/PIT UNDER 8.5
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We've got John Lannan vs. Ross Ohlendorf here tonight. The line opened up at -125 in favor of the Nationals. In my opinion there is no reason why this line should go the other way given how Lannan has pitched this year but the line has dropped to -114 despite 55% of the public being on the Nats. Vegas is expecting a close game and it is because of the pitching here tonight.
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I can state Lannan's stats as I did in the Pitching report today. He has a 2.70 ERA in his last 5 starts and he's got 1 start vs. Pirates this year going 7 innings and giving up 1ER. He'll face a lineup without Wilson and Sanchez today as this team continues to get weaker and weaker. The Pirates are scoring 0.78 runs per 9 innings in their last 5 and it's going to take them a while to gel and establish a team that can find it's groove again. To me as it stands today the Pirates are the worst team in baseball. However, Vegas is moving the line the other way and it is for no other reason than Ross Ohlendorf. Pirates are 1-7 in their last 8 starts vs. LH starter.
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Ohlendorf has the 6-2 record and a 3.39 ERA at home this year including a 1.80 ERA in his last 4 home starts. He faces the Nationals who do have a decent lineup but still on the road they just aren't a good hitting team. Pirates are under 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a losing team as he seems to get most of his quality starts against the bottom half of the MLB.
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The Nats are Under 6-0 in their last 6 as favorites -110 to -150 and they are under 18-4-1 with Lannan on 4 days rest. They are under 12-1 in their last 13 overall games as favorites for the Nats, and they are under 7-1 in their last 8 on the road. The Pirates are under 11-2 in their last 13 as a home dog and 8-1 in their last 10 following an off day.
Rocketman
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Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Boston Red Sox
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Boston comes in with a 59-42 record on the season while Baltimore has a 44-57 record this year. Boston bullpen has a 3.21 ERA overall this year and a 3.21 ERA on the road this season. Boston is 32-14 overall vs Baltimore the past 3 years including 8-2 vs Baltimore this season. Guthrie is 1-3 overall vs Boston since 1997 and his team is now 2-7 overall vs Boston during those starts. Orioles are 17-47 in their last 64 vs. American League East. Red Sox are 61-27 in the last 88 meetings in Baltimore. We'll recommend a small play on Boston tonight!
ALEX SMART
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Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Washington Nationals
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The Washington Nationals John Lannan (7-7, 3.25 ERA) continues to be the most consistent cog in his teams pitching rotation this season. That was evident in his last start when he threw eight-innings allowing just one-run on Sunday against the Padres. Im betting on him putting forward another top notch effort vs a Pittsburgh Pirates team that has produced an average of just 3.6 RPG vs southpaw starters this season and is currently in a terrible funk losing 5 straight while scoring just 4 runs during that span. Final notes & Key Trends: Pirates are 9-23 in their last 32 games as an underdog.
Ben Burns
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Chicago Cubs at Florida Marlins
Prediction: Under
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The Cubs saw each of their last three games produce double-digits in combined runs. Those games were at Wrigley Field against the Astros. I expect to see much better pitching for this evening's series opener at Florida.
Harden gets the call for the Cubs. After a uncharacteristically slow start, he's been dominant recently. In fact, over his last three appearances, he's gone 2-0 with an extremely stingy 0.95 ERA. During that 19-inning stretch, he's recorded 21 K's while issuing just two free passes. Not surprisingly, all three of those games stayed below the total.
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While Harden has had some trouble during the afternoon and at Wrigley, he's been excellent both on the road and under the lights. In seven evening starts, he's gone 5-1 with a 2.23 ERA. In seven road starts, he's gone 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA. The 'under' was 5-1-1 in those games and is 6-1-1 his last eight road starts, dating back to last season.
Volstad goes for Marlins and he's allowed four earned runs or less in seven straight starts, four of which stayed below the total. Looking back to last season and we find that he's allowed four earned runs or less in 16 of his last 17 home starts. It's also worth noting that Volstad has a very solid 2.84 ERA in three career starts vs. the Cubs. He allowed two earned runs in all three of those games, lasting a minimum of six innings in each.
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With Volstad's consistency and Harden currently in top form, I feel the 'under' is well worth a look.
Matt Fargo
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Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets
Prediction: New York Mets
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The Mets had their five-game winning streak snapped in the second game last night against the Rockies but they should be able to get it right back tonight. New York is 28-21 at home on the season and is keeping a glimmer of playoff hope alive. The Diamondbacks are coming off a 3-4 homestand and are 20-25 on the road for the year. Livan Hernandez has been solid since the All-Star break as he has tossed two straight quality outings and both of those were on the road where he has not had a good season. His numbers at home have been far from outstanding but most of the damage can be attributed to one horrible outing against the Dodgers. Take that away and his ERA drops from 4.78 to 3.29 in his other six home starts. Four of those six outings were quality performances. He will be opposed by Doug Davis who has been horribly inconsistent this season. He is coming off six shutout innings against the Pirates but prior to that, he allowed 13 runs in 6.1 innings covering two starts. He has allowed four runs or more seven times and even when he pitches well, he is not picking up the wins. Arizona is 6-15 in his 21 starts on the season including 2-7 in nine road starts.
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3* New York Mets
John Ryan
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Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Kansas City Royals
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Kansas City as they travel to face TB set to start at 7:38 EST. Tb in a series of poor roles. Note that they are 11-16 (-11.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season; 14-18 (-10.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season. KC is a nice 102-116 (+35.1 Units) against the money line after having lost 18 or more of their last 25 games since 1997. This angle is analogous to playing Black Jack and losing slightly more hands than won and still walking out of the casino with a profit equivalent to winning 35 more hands than losing. This is just one minor example of how the AiS identifies dogs that have a very strong probability of winning. TB is not playing well right now and may be feeling the after effects of the big NYY series. They are just 3-4 batting 209 over their past 7 games. Opponents are averaging 5.7 RPG over this same span. KC starter Ponson is coming off his best start of the year throwing 6 innings allowing ZERO earned runs on 5 hits against Texas. Rays starter Price is an incredible talent, but he has not pitched well over his last 3 starts sporting a 6.60 ERA and a poor 1.733 WHIP. In his last start at Toronto, Price went just 3 innings allowing 6 ER on 9 hits with 3 home runs, He has allowed 23 hits and 11 ER in his last 3 starts spanning 15 innings. Also, just 2 quality starts all season! He has strong tendencies as well for day/night starts. In day starts he is 3-0 sporting a 3.38 ERA while an imperfect 0-4 with a robust 7.86 ERA in night starts. He also has allowed a 415 batting average during his first 15 pitches. Take KC.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Pittsburgh Pirates +115
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The Pirates are showing excellent value in the home underdog role tonight. The Pirates are a solid 26-19 at home this season while the Nats come in with a very poor 12-37 road record. Pittsburgh has won 3 of 4 meetings against the Nats this season and all have been in Washington so I expect this domination to continue in Pittsburgh tonight. While Lannan has been good for the Nats this season, the road has not been nearly as kind. He is just 3-6 away from home with an ERA of 5.51. Plus, Lannan is 0-3 against the money line when starting against Pittsburgh in his career with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.500. The Bucs should be in good hands with Ross Ohlendorf on the hill tonight as he is 6-2 with an ERA of 3.39 at home this season (8-2 against the money line in his 10 home starts). The Pirates are 5-0 in Ohlendorf's last 5 starts as a home underdog and 5-0 in his last 5 home starts period while the Nationals are 5-15 in Lannan's last 20 road starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts during game 1 of a series. Bet the Bucs.
Spartan
I am suggesting a wager on the Detroit Tigers as they meet the Indians. Edwin Jackson has pitched well enough to have a stronger record with his 2.59 era. I my view he gets a great draw tonight as Fausto Carmona opposes him. Carmona is returning from the farm where word has it he looked good. My bet is the first time things start to get sideways on him he will revert to his old self. With a 2-6 record and 7.42 I've seen this guys act enough in the past and I'll take the better club and Edwin Jacksons stuff any day.
Evan Altemus
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NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox
Selection: UNDER 10.5
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Chicago has really struggled against righties this season, and they are mired in a poor hitting slump as a team. Sergio Mitre is not an ace by any stretch, but he has pitched decent in his first two starts since entering the rotation. The White Sox are struggling to hit the ball so bad right now that he should have no problem containing them. They are only hitting .212 against righties at home this season. Meanwhile, Chicago's Clayton Richard has pitched very well lately, giving up only one run in each of his last two starts. The Yankees have also struggled to hit during their recent road trip, including last night. They only had one run entering the top of the 9th inning. Richard's last two starts are even more impressive considering they came against Tampa Bay at home and against Detroit on the road. He went eight innings in both starts, giving up one run a piece, while posting a 10/4 strikeout to walk ratio. There is some excellent value with this selection based on the notions that Mitre and Richard are poor pitchers, as well as the White Sox and especially the Yankees being perceived as high scoring power line-ups. However, Richard is pitching lights out, while the line-ups, especially the White Sox, aren't very high scoring right now. Take the UNDER.
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2 UNIT SELECTION
MTi Sports
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Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
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The Orioles are 0-10 THIS season as a dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed and The Red Sox are 10-0 in the first game of a series since late April vs a team that has won at least their last two games. Consider the BoSox.
Ron Raymond
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TAM / KAN Over 10
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The OVER on this game opened at 9.5 and the early wise money has shot this total to 10. Looks like a blowout in the making with Ponson and Price on the mound.
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Here's an OVER angle on this game.
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When KANSAS CITY team Played as Road team as a Underdog - During the month of July - During a night game - Scored 3 or less runs FOR in their last game - Coming off a 2 game losing streak; The OVER is 9-3-0 for the Royals in this spot since 1997.
DAVE PRICE
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1 Unit on NY Mets -102
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The Mets have won 5 of 6 and I like them to stay hot against the lowly D-backs at home tonight. The D-backs are just 2-7 in Davis ' road starts this season and he has really struggled of late, posting an ERA of 9.49 over his last 3 starts. In all, the Diamondbacks are just 5-18 in Davis ' last 23 road starts. The Mets are an outstanding 29-10 in their last 39 home games vs. a team with a losing record and Hernandez has held his own against weak team as well. In fact, the Mets are 6-2 in Hernandez's last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Diamondbacks are just 7-19 in the last 26 meetings. Bet the Mets.
Craig Trapp
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Boston Red Sox
Smoltz has not been his normal self yet as he is still getting stronger from his injury. But he has glimpses of greatness within a game. Today is the day where Smoltz puts together a really nice game. Also BOS has won 8 of 10 from BALT this year. BOS has snapped out of the hitting slump and today will put up a ton of fireworks. On the other side BALT is just young and not very good they have only won 3 games in last 11. Guthrie goes for them today and he has given up 5 ER in his last outting a week ago verse this same team. BOS owns him and will make another easy BOS win. SCORE BOS 9 - BAL 4
Tony George
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Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: OVER 9.5
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John Smoltz is done, stick a fork in his ass, its over. Fading this guy is profitable, and 5 days ago he started against the O's and lost, and was pulled after 5 innings, and Baltimore won 6-3. His ERA is over 7. Father time has past him by folks. While fading against the O's is a tough call, the total here is not. The bullpen for Balitmore is under a 2 ERA their last 3 games, albeit it was KC, so that number is skewed. Neither Starter tonight is a good pitcher both with over 5 ERAs and Smoltz's last 3 starts have been sdeplorable. Lots of runs early here. I know the trrend numbers here favor the Under but both these guys could get lit up early and Guthrie hgives up allot of hits for the O's. Also bucking a public consensus here as well, the whole world is on the Under.