SPORTS ADVISORS
N.Y. Mets (39-39) at Philadelphia (39-37)
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After a quick jaunt to Pittsburgh for a makeup game Thursday, the Mets send veteran righty Livan Hernandez (5-3, 4.04 ERA) to the mound in Philadelphia to face Phillies’ starter Rodrigo Lopez (0-0, 0.00), making his first start in the big leagues in almost two years.
New York scored a 10-inning, 9-8 victory over the Pirates on Thursday but burned seven pitchers when starter Tim Redding couldn’t get out of the third inning after giving up five runs on six hits. It was the second consecutive win for the Mets after losing five straight. They are on runs of 14-6 against the N.L. East and 15-6 in the first game of a series, but everything else is on the negative side of the slate, including 1-4 as an underdog, 3-7 as a road ‘dog and 1-5 against teams with winning records.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia was being swept in the finale of a three-game set in Atlanta on Thursday, falling 5-2, with a struggling offense that managed just seven runs in the three-game series. The Phillies have lost six of eight overall and 12 of 15. They are on further slides of 0-6 at home, 1-6 in series openers, 0-8 against right-handed starters and 5-16 at home against right-handers. In this rivalry, the Mets are 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Philly.
Hernandez is 3-1 on the road this season with a 4.47 ERA and he’s been solid for the Mets lately, holding the opposition to three runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. Sunday, he gave up three runs on three hits in seven innings at home to the Mets, but lost 4-2. He hasn’t faced the Phillies since 2006 when he was a starter for the Nationals, but for his career he is 10-8 with a 3.36 ERA in 24 career starts. With Hernandez on the hill, New York is 4-1 against the N.L. East but otherwise on slides of 0-4 as a road ‘dog, 0-4 overall and 1-5 on the road overall.
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Lopez is being called up from Triple-A Lehigh Valley to make his first start since 2007. In 2006 he led the American League with 18 losses and he’s trying to make a comeback from elbow ligament replacement surgery in 2007. He is 65-65 with a 4.80 ERA in 187 games for the Padres, Orioles and Rockies. He was 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in his last three starts for Lehigh Valley.
The Mets have stayed below the total in four of Hernandez’s last five starts and 36 of their last 59 Friday games, but as a team they have topped the total in six of seven series openers and five of seven on the road against winning teams. Philadelphia is on “under” runs of 6-0 on Fridays, 8-3-2 in series openers and 11-5-1 as a home chalk. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 5-2-1 in the last eight overall and 4-0-1 in the last five in the City of Brotherly Love.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Toronto (42-38) at N.Y. Yankees (45-33)
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After having their seven-game winning streak snapped Thursday the Yankees will send right-hander A.J. Burnett (6-4, 3.93 ERA) to the mound to try and get a new streak going against Blue Jays’ southpaw Brian Tallet (5-5, 4.47) at Yankee Stadium.
New York lost 8-4 in the series finale against the Mariners on Thursday after rattling off seven straight wins. The new stadium has been good to the Yankees, who have gone 17-8 in their last 25 at home. They are also on runs of 11-3 against left-handers, 46-23 as a favorite, 6-2 at home against teams with winning records and 5-1 in series openers.
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Toronto was idle on Thursday but the Jays have struggled lately, going 1-4 overall, 3-11 against division foes and 1-4 against winning teams. New York took two of three in Toronto back in mid-May and has won four of the last six head-to-head meetings.
Tallet is 1-1 in his last three starts with a 2.65 ERA but he got roughed up against the Phillies on Sunday, allowing five runs (four earned) on eight hits in six innings of a 5-4 home loss. He’s faced the Yankees back on May 14 and gave up two runs on four hits in six innings of a 3-2 loss in Toronto. With Tallet on the hill, the Blue Jays are 3-7 in his last 10 starts, 1-4 in his last five, 1-6 when he’s an underdog and 1-4 in series openers.
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Burnett has been lights out in his last three, going 2-1 with a 0.44 ERA. He’s allowed two runs (one earned) in those three starts, including two shutout wins over the Mets and a 2-1 loss to the Marlins. He faced these Blue Jays on May 12 and allowed five runs on seven hits over 7 2/3 innings of a 5-1 loss in Canada. With Burnett on the hill, New York is 0-4 against the A.L. East, but 5-2 at home and 4-0 when he’s a favorite.
With Tallet throwing, the Blue Jays are on “under” streaks of 7-3 overall, 5-0 against A.L. East rivals, 4-0 on the road and 5-1 as an underdog. Along the same lines, with Burnett pitching, the Yankees are on “under” runs of 7-2-1 overall and 4-1 in series openers.
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As a team, Toronto is on “under” streaks that include 20-8 against A.L. East squads, 11-5 on the road, 6-2 as a road ‘dog, 5-0-1 overall and 5-0-1 against teams with a winning record. The Yankees have stayed under the total in four of five against A.L. East teams, eight of seven Friday games and 15 of 24 home games against southpaws.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
Big Al McMordie
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Padres righthander Chad Gaudin is a bit of an enigma. He goes out and throws arguably his best start of his career in one of the toughest places to pitch in all of baseball (Arlington, Texas) last Sunday night, but only can manage a .500 record (2-2) in his home ballpark which is considered the most pitcher-friendly place to play. Now, granted, the Rangers have been in an awful power slump since losing outfielder Josh Hamilton to injury so perhaps tonight facing their division rival and best team in the National League will be a much truer test for the former Oakland starter. Other than having to face the team with the best record in the NL, Gaudin will likely have another obstacle to deal with and that is the much-anticipated return of slugger Manny Ramirez to the Majors. And the offensive spark provided by Manny's return could be just the thing that hard-luck L.A. starter Hiroki Kuroda needs. In limited action (Kuroda missed the beginning of the season due to injury), the Japanese righthander has put up some of the best numbers in the NL in every category except win percentage as, despite a 3.77 ERA and an incredible 35 Ks to just 7 walks, Kuroda is only 2-4. He is working on an amazing streak of four games -- 29 consecutive innings -- without issuing a base-on-balls. Kuroda also happens to be 3-1 in five career starts against the Padres. Take the Dodgers.
Steve Merril
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Arizona D-Backs vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies
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The Rockies return home to host Arizona after a nine game road trip thru California. Going for the Rockies is Jorge De La Rosa who is 4-7 with a 5.64 ERA this season. De La Rosa is coming off a solid effort in Oakland going six innings and giving up two runs on five hits, while striking out five and walking only two hitters. De La Rosa is 1-2 with a 3.08 ERA all time against Arizona, having lost to them 2-0 in April on the road. In that game he gave up just two runs and six hits in 6.7 innings pitched. Arizona hits .224 against De La Rosa with Chris Snyder (2-11), Stephen Drew (2-10), Chris Young (2-9), Chad Tracy (1-6) and Mark Reynolds (1-6) struggling the most. Arizona is 8-14 against lefties this season averaging just 3.6 runs per game and hitting only .224. Arizona will send Max Scherzer to the hill where he's 5-5 with a 3.67 ERA. In his last three starts he's given up 7 earned runs in 16.3 innings pitched going 2-1 in that span. He's faced Colorado once losing 3-2 to them in Colorado. In that game he gave up three runs and seven hits in six innings. Garrett Atkins (2-3), Clint Barmes (1-3), Chris Ianetta (1-3) and Brad Hawpe (1-2) had the most success against him in that game. At home Colorado averages 5.8 runs per game and hit .279 as a team. The Rockies are also a fantastic 21-5 SU in their past 26 games.
Cajun Sports
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Dodgers make the trip to San Diego for a three-game weekend set against the host Padres. The Padres completed a four-game set at home on Thursday afternoon versus Houston losing the series 3 games to 1. In the last two games of that series they gave up seven runs in each contest and only managed to score a total of eight runs themselves during the entire series. San Diego is a miserable 5-12 W/L their last 17 at home and 1-7 W/L their last eight when installed as a home underdog. The road certainly doesn’t get any easier as the Dodgers are 14-2 W/L when facing teams with a win percentage in the range of 38 to 46 percent on the season. The Padres are 2-8 W/L their last 10 when facing right-handed starters and 9-25 W/L when they face a pitcher whose WHIP is 1.15 or less on the year. LA has proven to be a tough out in division play posting a record of 44-18 W/L versus opponents from the NL West and 50-22 W/L as a favorite overall. LA is also active in a MLB System that tells us to Play ON road favorites with a money line of -125 or more averaging 0.9 homeruns or less per game on the season coming in off a one run win in their last game, these teams are 71-22 W/L since the 97 season for +40.6 Units of profit. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Dodgers win in tonight’s contest by 1.3 runs and our Math Model also favors LA by 0.95 runs over the Padres so lay the chalk with the visitor as LA grabs game one on Friday night.
Craig Trapp
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St Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Over 9.5
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Betting Trends
-Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
-Over is 5-2-1 in Cardinals last 8 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.
-Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
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-Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Cincinnati. Recently both of these teams have struggled at the plate, but no matter what when these two teams play runs follow. In fact so far this year when these teams play in Cincy they have averaged 12 runs per game. Homer Bailey goes for Cincy today and he has been horrible all year. He averages over a walk per inning which will really come back to haunt him today. Pinero goes for STL today and he has been pretty good as of late. Would expect him to go about 6 innings and give up three runs. Both bullpens will be called on for extensive innings and would imagine that both will give up 2 runs each. As it gets warmer in Cincy the balls fly out at breakneck speed would imagine that STL goes yard at least three times. Expect a really high score easily over 12 runs!! SCORE STL 7 - CIN 5
Bob Harvey
Los Angeles Angels -147
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The last place Baltimore Orioles continue to struggle on the road. The Birds are now 11-24 away from Camden Yards following a 5-2 loss to the Angels on Thursday night.
Just about everywhere you look the numbers are bad for Baltimore. Theyre 0-3 against the Halos this season and 7-21 in the last 28 meetings. The Orioles are just 3-7 in their last ten outings and are hitting just .236 on the road while posting an ERA of 6.01 as a visitor.
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Tonight Baltimore will face Ervin Santana who has had two stints on the DL this season. Its amazing how things can change in a year. In 2008 Santana was a member of the AL All-Star team. This season hes had more stints on the disabled list than he has wins. Santana has been on the 15-day disabled list since June 23rd. He experienced stiffness in his throwing arm following a start in Tampa Bay. He'll take the mound this evening with a 1-3 record and an ERA of 7.47 in six starts.
The Orioles will counter with David Hernandez who is 1-2 on the season with a 4.19 ERA. In his last three starts hes had as many walks as strikeouts and his ERA is just a smidge under 5.
After a slow start with the bats, the Angels have come to life offensively. Los Halos have scored 34 runs in their last five games and Bobby Abreu has been a big reason for the increased production. Abreu, who homered twice on Thursday night, has driven in 27 runs since the start of June. The only hitter in the Al who has matched Abreus production is teammate Juan Rivera.
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The Angels have somehow kept things together in a season where lesser teams would have unraveled. Even with a rusty Santana on the mound tonight, I like the Angels to keep things rolling.
Brad Diamond Sports
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Play on: Boston (Wakefield) over Seattle
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King Felix Hernandez has been super lately carrying a 0.74 ERA over his last three games on the diamond, while the Mariners have won three straight games that he has started. Still, must favor the Sox who have won 17 of 22 in Fenway versus Seattle. In addition, Boston is 51-19 against teams with a losing road record. Seattle shows at 15-36 as a road underdog. Good Luck. Don’t miss my key Friday pitching box.
Red Dog Sports
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Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City
Play: Under 7
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Kansas City has 8 unders, 0 overs and a push in their last 9 games. The Sox have 19 unders. 9 overs and a push in their last 29 games. Danks has an ERA of 1.71 in his last 3 while Greinke's ERA is 3.00. These two starters have combined for 12 overs and 19 unders this season. Look for an under on Friday night.
Marc Lawrence
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St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
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When the Cardinals meet Homer Bailey and the Reds in Cincinnati tonight they will turn the ball over to Joel Pineiro as he looks to improve on his 2.97 career ERA in his five team starts in this series. Pineiro has been super sharp of late, issuing only 5 walks against 32 strikeouts in his last ten starts. In addition, he is 6-2 in his last eight team starts in July. With Bailey in off an 'inside-out' win in his last start (5 innings pitched, 10 runners on base), look for the Reds to drop to 1-5 in their last six games on Fridays here this evening.
Info Plays
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
Reasons why Tampa Bay wins:
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1.) Yes, Scott Kazmir has struggled this season. But he’ll get back on track tonight when facing one of his favorite opponents. Kazmir has owned the Texas Rangers, going 4-0 with a miniscule 2.06 ERA in his career against them. The Rays are a perfect 7-0 in Kazmir’s 7 career starts against the Rangers. The Rays are a great bounce-back team, and that’s proven by the fact that Tampa Bay is 42-18 in their last 60 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their preview games. This is a big letdown spot for Texas coming off their series win against their AL West rival in the L.A. Angels.
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2.) System Play. We’ll Play On - Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (TAMPA BAY) - with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games, playing on Friday. This is a 63-17 ML System hitting 78.8% over the last 5 seasons. Kazmir will come in and shut the Rangers down, and the Rays’ bullpen will shut the door. Bet Tampa Bay on the road.
John Martin
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Over 10½
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Scott Kazmir has lost it this season, and Tommy Hunter is about to get lit up by this hot Rays’ lineup. Kazmir is 4-4 with a 7.28 ERA in 2009, giving up 43 earned runs in 50.7 innings of work. Tommy Hunter has only made two starts for the Rangers, but he’s given up 14 hits and 3 walks in just 11.7 innings. Two of those 14 hits were home runs, and he’s faced two of the worst lineups in baseball in the A’s and Padres. Tampa Bay has won 7 of their last 8 games and they are really starting to hit the ball, which doesn’t bode well for Hunter and the Rangers. Tampa is hitting .287 with a .384 OBP in their last 7 games. The OVER is 9-1 in Kazmir’s 10 starts this season. The OVER is 12-3 in Tampa Bay’s last 15 games following an off day. Texas is 13-4 OVER after scoring 8 or more runs in each of their last 2 games over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 11-1 in Kazmir’s last 12 starts with a Total Set of 9.0-10.5 runs. The OVER is 14-2 in Kazmir’s last 16 starts as a favorite. Finally, the OVER is 4-0 in Kazmir’s last 4 starts against the Rangers. Cash in with the OVER 10.5 runs.
Black Widow Sports
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Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians
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Cleveland and Oakland have been pretty miserable this season, as both are in the cellar in the American League. Oakland owns the second-worst record at 33-44 while the Indians are in dead last at 31-49. But Cleveland finally gets an opponent they can handle at a very good price Friday. Trevor Cahill was rocked for 7 earned runs in only 3.7 innings in his last start against Colorado, so he won’t come in with much confidence. Cahill gave up 4 home runs to the Rockies in that one game, alone. This series has been dominated by the Indians. Cleveland is 20-8 in their last 28 home meetings with Oakland, including 4-0 in their last 4 meetings. The A’s are 26-53 in their last 79 road games, and 13-32 in their last 45 games following an off day. Take the Indians on the Money Line.
Bobby Maxwell
Seattle +110 at BOSTON
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Friday night's FREE winner comes from Boston as I love the Mariners on the road in this one against the Red Sox.
The Mariners are on the last leg of a tough three-city trip that has had them in Los Angeles against the Dodgers and in New York against the Yankees. They are 3-3 on the trip and tonight we love their ace Felix Hernandez (8-3, 2.54 ERA) against the Red Sox.
The young hurler has allowed two runs or less in each of his last seven starts, going 4-0 in that stretch with a 0.85 ERA. Saturday in Los Angeles he gave up just one unearned run on four hits in eight innings of a 5-1 win, striking out nine in the process. And it's not like he's unfamiliar with the Red Sox, he's got a 3-1 career mark against Boston with a 3.05 ERA in six starts and he's tossed 15 shutout innings at Fenway in winning his last two starts in Beantown.
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Seattle took two of three from Boston in mid-May in the Pacific Northwest but they didn't get a look at today's starter, veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (10-3, 4.18). The guy gets wins thanks to his offense. When he gets knocked around, they usually get to him hard.
The Mariners are on runs of 9-4 on Fridays and 12-4 when Hernandez is a road 'dog. He's won 15 of the last 22 series openers he's pitched and he's 5-2 against the A.L. East.
I'm playing the Mariners in this one. I love the plus-money. I love the way Hernandez pitches and I'm cashing in with the young hurler in this one.
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2♦ SEATTLE
Dominic Fazzini
Tampa Bay -130 at TEXAS
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I handed you a complimentary win Thursday for the third time in four days with the Cardinals' victory over the Giants. Let's keep it rolling into the weekend!
Scott Kazmir has one start under his belt since coming off the disabled list (right quad strain), and now he’s ready to reassert himself as one of the top young left-handers in the majors.
The 25-year-old Kazmir (4-4, 7.28 ERA) allowed two runs on four hits in five innings Saturday against Florida, and struggled with his command a little bit, but he should ready to take a step forward today against the Rangers.
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Kazmir has owned Texas in seven career starts, going 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA, and is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in three starts at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. And the Rangers are hitting just .253 against southpaws this season.
Right-hander Tommy Hunter (0-1, 3.86) will make his third start of the season. He did OK Friday against San Diego, allowing two runs in 6 1/3 innings, but the Rays’ offense is a lot more potent than the Padres’. And Hunter, who turns 23 today, is 0-3 with a 9.93 ERA in five major league starts over the last two seasons.
The Rays had just four hits Wednesday in a 5-0 loss at Toronto, but that came after a seven-game winning streak. I don’t see Hunter keeping their bats quiet again. Go with Tampa Bay.
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3♦ TAMPA BAY
DAVE COKIN
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ST. LOUIS CARDINALS / CINCINNATI REDS
Take ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
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Homer Bailey walked the proverbial tightrope in his first start back in the bigs. In fairness, he was a little hamstrung by Tim McClelland's ultra-tight strike zone. But Bailey is going to have to show that he can control his pitch count and throw strikes if he's going to win at this level. Joel Pineiro usually keeps his team in the game, and I'm going to have to look the Cardinals way to get the best of the Reds tonight.