John Ryan
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Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Houston Astros
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Houston as they face the Giants. Brief report as there is a huge set of plays for today including a 10* Titan where I am on a 6-1 run, a trio of 58 Monsters, and a 78 Titan with a 40-8 system. Houston is a solid 62-53 (+19.8 Units) against the money line vs. good fielding teams averaging <=0.6 errors/game over the last 2 seasons; 15-8 (+7.5 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games this season; 15-5 (+10.9 Units) against the money line against NL West opponents this season. Take Houston.
LARRY NESS
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
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The Rangers broke out of an offensive slump in winning the final two games of their early-week series with the Angels. Texas lost 5-2 to the Angels on Monday, falling 2 1/2 games behind LA in the AL West. However, after averaging just 3.6 RPG in losing EIGHT of the previous 11 games while batting only .207 (remember, the Rangers led MLB in 2008 in runs scored!), Texas rebounded with consecutive 9-5 and 9-7 wins. With 10 days to go before the All Star break, the Rangers are one game behind the Angels in the AL West, after finishing 21 games back of LA in 2008. The Rays, the defending AL champs, have their work cut out for them in 2009, battling the Red Sox (48-30), Yankees (45-33) and even the Blue Jays (42-38) in MLB's toughest division (AL East). Tampa Bay enters this series 44-36, having won 15 of its last 20 games. Scott Kazmir gets the start for the Rays vs the untested Tommy Hunter for the Rangers. Hunter made just three starts in 2008, getting shelled for 23 hits and 20 ERs in only 11 innings (16.36 ERA). He's been better in two starts this year, allowing 14 hits and only five ERs in 11.2 innings for a 3.86 ERA. However, the righty will face a Tampa team which 'killed' righties last year (71-41 averaging 5.1 RPG) and has been strong vs right-handers again in '09, going 31-20 (5.8 RPG). His mound opponent Scott Kazmir is coming off a season in which he went 12-8 (team was 19-8 in his starts) and led all Tampa Bay starters with a 3.49 ERA. The Rays struggled to open this season and Kazmir's lack of effectiveness was a contributing factor to those woes. He gave up at least six ERs in five of his first nine starts before going on the DL May 22 with a right quadriceps strain. However, after being sidelined for more than five weeks, Kazmir returned last Saturday and held Florida to two ERs and four hits in five innings of Tampa Bay’s 3-2 win. I'm a big fan of Kazmir and here's why. While the Rays (then devils!) were going 194-292 (.399) from 2005-07, Kazmir was 33-26 (.559) in 90 starts (team was 46-44 / .511). Doing the math during that three-year span, the Rays were 33-26 (.559) when Kazmir got a decision and 161-266 (.377) when he didn't. With Kazmir on the mound, the Rays were 46-44 (.511) and when he wasn't, they were 148-248 (.374). Now that's a "difference-maker!" The clincher is that Kazmir is 4-0 with 2.09 ERA in seven career starts vs Texas, all being Tampa Bay wins. Take Kazmir and the Rays over Hunter and the Rangers.
Lenny Del Genio
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Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Over
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Both teams were riding Under streaks of five games heading into yesterday, but San Diego allowed seven runs to Houston and went Over. The Dodgers had the day off and their hitting (Manny returns!) will be too much for San Diego to handle. The Dodgers have gone Over in 23 of 35 games vs. losing teams this year. San Diego is 82-63 Over in the underdog role since the start of last year. Take Over.
Mike Rose
B.C. Lions @ Saskatchewan Roughriders
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This is a totally new season for the Lions, and for the first time in quite a few years, they arent considered the cream of the crop in the Western Division. No team suffered as many critical losses in the offseason as BC, as DE Cameron Wake, who led the CFL in sacks in each of the L/2 seasons, is now a Miami Dolphin. RB Stefan Logan, RB Charles Roberts, LB Jason Pottinger, and SB Jason Clermont have all also moved on, and there hasnt been a heck of a lot come in to replace them. Quarterback play has been inconsistent for the Leos for the L/4 seasons, and once again this year, Jarious Jackson and Buck Pierce will probably both be seeing plenty of PT. The duo did throw for almost 5,200 yards and 36 TDs last season, and HC Wally Buono tends to go with the hot hand. Tonight, Pierce is expecting to get the nod, but Jackson will likely see some snaps at the first sign of Pierces struggles.
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The Riders may have the worst team in the Western Division this season, but theyre still good enough to compete for a playoff spot thanks to the crossover position in the second season. Regina is always a nightmare to go into for opposing teams, but Riderville will be rocking tonight with memories of that whooping their team got from the Lions to end their 08 season. QB Darian Durant has been tabbed as the man this season. He showed flashes of brilliance at times last year, but he also proved that he is a raw quarterback with a lot of work to be done to succeed at this level. Save QB Stephen Jyles, there really arent any other options for HC Ken Miller to turn to under centre, so this is Durants team regardless. The running game for the Riders will be hurt tonight by the absence of RB Wes Cates, who led the league in rushing TDs last season with 12. Expect RB Hugh Charles to carry the load tonight.
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Neither offense looks like its ready to score 30 points in a game yet this season. Yes, Pierce and Jackson have a lot of experience under centre and can lead the Leos down the field, but there a huge void in the BC running game as well with both Logan and Roberts having departed. Especially early in the season, expect to see these offenses struggle. Asking them to come up with 50 points combined is a hefty task.
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Play B.C. Lions @ Saskatchewan Roughriders Under 50.0
Dennis Macklin
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Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Under
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Both of tonight's Mariner/BoSox starters have been dealing. The M's King Felix has been rocking an ultra-stingy 1.22 ERA in over his L5 starts while knucleballing Tim Wakefield is 2-0 and 2.89 in his last tifecta of outings. Hernandez sports 3.05 LT ERA vs Beantown while Wakefield is 3.50 and change in DD LT starts. Runs will be tough to come by and these are two of MLB better pens. Play the Under.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on LAA Angels -137
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Baltimore is one of the worst road teams in the bigs and they are up against it tonight with Ervin Santana taking the hill for the Halos. Santana has battled injuries this season, but I expect him to show the stuff that made him a 2008 All-Star tonight after a good start in the minors Sunday and an excellent bullpen session Tuesday. The Angels are 4-0 in Santana's last 4 home starts vs. the Orioles and 10-4 in his last 14 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. With the Angels bats hitting on all cylinders, we'll ride them to another victory tonight.
Rob Homyak
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5 Units on Atlanta Braves
The Braves scored three runs in the eighth inning to defeat the Phillies 5-2 for a sweep of the three-game series on Thursday, as -140 favorites. The game's seven runs went UNDER the posted over/under (8).
Casey Kotchman went 2-for-2 at the plate with a two-run homer. Mike Gonzalez earned the win in relief, and Rafael Soriano collected his seventh save.
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The Nationals were defeated 5-3 by the Marlins last time out, as +150 underdogs. That game's eight runs went as a PUSH against the posted over/under (8).
Josh Willingham had two hits and drove in two runs, while Julian Tavarez gave up two runs in relief and suffered the loss.
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Play AGAINST WASHINGTON using the money line in All games against division opponents
The record is 6 Wins and 30 Losses this season (-22.20 units)
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WASHINGTON is 9-27 (-16.6 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
KAWAKAMI: ATL 20-10 AWAY on Friday
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DETWILER: WAS 6-30 against division opponents
Head-to-Head Series History
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ATLANTA is 4-2 (+1.3 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.6 Units)
Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League East.
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Braves are 4-0 in Kawakamis last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
Atlanta has won four of its six matchups with the Nats this season.
Nationals are 10-41 in their last 51 vs. National League East.
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Nationals are 1-4 in Detwilers last 5 home starts.
Nationals are 0-4 in Detwilers last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
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Nationals are 0-6 in Detwilers last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.