Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, July 5

Jimmy Boyd

Tampa Bay Rays -178

The Rays have a huge advantage in this matchup at the starting pitcher position. Dylan Axelrod has a 1-3 record in his eight starts on the road. In his last three starts he has posted a 5.94 ERA with a 1.800 WHIP. He is up against a Tampa Bay offense that is batting .270 over their past seven games and they are scoring 4.7 runs per game at home.

The White Sox are batting .246 against right handed starters and they will really struggle today against Jeremy Hellickson. In his last three starts Hellickson has posted a 1.42 ERA and a 1.105 WHIP. He is 3-0 in those starts and has a 7-3 overall record this season. The White Sox have a 15-28 record on the road while Tampa Bay owns a 25-18 record at home. This should be an easy win for the Rays and I expect Axelrod to have a very short night.

Rob Vinciletti

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play; Milwaukee Brewers

The main reason for this selection is that road dogs like the Mets are 1-14 since 2004 if they are off a home dog loss and scored 4 or less runs with 10 or more hits, and are playing an opponent that lost by 2 or more runs. The Mets are off a grueling 4 game series with Arizona and were dropped 5-4 in extras after twice getting game tying home runs. The Mets may be worn out after that game and a series with Several long rain delays and two long extra inning games. Manager Terry Collins in his post game conference following the loss openly said he's never been on a tougher stretch in his career and don't even se how some of these guys are standing. The Mets have Z. Wheeler going and he has a 5 era in his 3 starts so far this season, often struggling with his command. The Brewers have J. Hellweg on the mound and looking to improve off a dreadful season debut in Pittsburgh. This is a much easier spot. Look for Milwaukee to take the opener.

John Ryan

Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Under 9

The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 9 runs will be scored in this game. NY is a solid 21-6 UNDER (+13.9 Units) when playing against a good team winning between 54% to 62% this season; 36-18 UNDER (+15.3 Units) facing good fielding teams averaging <=0.6 errors/game this season; 24-10 UNDER (+12.4 Units) after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season; 37-16 UNDER (+18.9 Units) after scoring 9 runs or more over the last 3 seasons; 11-2 UNDER (+8.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season. Orioles are a solid 31-16 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in road games when facing a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. Miguel Gonzalez starts for the O's and he is coming along very well this season. He went 6 2/3 innings allowed 3 ER, on 2 HR, and struck out nine batters while walking none. Yanks are batting just .247 with a 0.299 OBP in 57 games against RH starters. Nova starts for the Yanks and in his first start since April 26, he pitched well completing 6 2/3 innings, allowed 3 ER, walking three and getting 7 K's in a 3-1 loss to TB. I like the 'UNDER' in this matchup.

Jeffrey Brandes

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

Pitchers:
ATLANTA BRAVES: TIM HUDSON (R) ERA: 4.22 W/L: 4-7
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES: CLIFF LEE (L) ERA: 2.59 W/L: 9-2

For the Braves, TIM HUDSON is winless in his last 10 outings. He hasn't recorded a win since May 5. He is 3-3 in nine career starts in Philadelphia.

For the Phillies, CLIFF LEE is undefeated in his last 11 starts. He has been lights-out nearly all season, especially over the last two months. He has turned in 11 consecutive quality starts dating back to May 6, while pitching at least seven innings in each of those outings. Lee is 7-0 with a 2.15 ERA during that span.

Key Trends:
Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
Atlanta is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road

Marc Lawrence

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants

The Giants and Dodgers meet in the opener of this three-game division rivalry at AT&T Park Friday evening where Matt Cain meets Hyun-Jin Ryu. While Ryu has been a pleasant surprise in a disappointing season for the Dodgers this campaign, his 4.15 road ERA is more then two full runs worse the his 1.90 home ERA. On the flip side, Cain enters in amazing KW form with 23 strikeouts and 1 walk in his last three starts. Cain is also 8-3 his last eleven home team starts during July . With that look for Giants to improve to 7-2 in games at night behind Cain this season here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Francisco.

Bryan Power

San Diego vs. Washington
Pick: Washington

The Nats were a nice early afternoon winner for me on the 4th of July, part of another winning card. I also like them to take care of business Friday as they open a weekend series with the San Diego Padres at home.

The Nats' offense has been real feast or famine the last five games, but one thing we can count on here is the pitching of Gio Gonzalez. The lefty has a 1.77 ERA over the course of his last three starts (0.935 WHIP), with the team going a perfect 3-0 over that span. Last time out, he didn't allow any runs over seven innings (just three hits) as Washington drubbed the Mets 13-2. Gonzalez has now turned in six consecutive quality starts.

Here he'll be facing a San Diego lineup mired in a horrific slump. Not only were the Padres swept in their previous three-game series by the Boston Red Sox; they scored just four runs in the three games. Looking back, they have now lost six straight, scoring a total of seven runs. Yikes! They are now just 15-27 on the road for the season. Gonzalez has a 2-0 lifetime TSR against San Diego w/ a 1.37 ERA and he also owns a 35-12 TSR in the -125 to -175 price range on the money line.

Will Rogers

LA Dodgers vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco

The San Francisco Giants return home Friday off a disastrous road trip that saw them go 1-8 overall. They were likely thankful to be rained out Thursday in Cincinnati, which gives them a leg up for Friday's opener against the rival Dodgers. While LA has won 10 of their last 12, they did lose yesterday and I think despite the recent play of both sides, the home team is the smart wager tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Revenge - The Giants started that disastrous road trip by getting swept at Dodgers Stadium last week. This is their chance at revenge. At home, they are a much better team, going 24-15 for the season. The Dodgers have gone 15-23 on the road after losing to Colorado Thursday.

2. Lefty vs. Lefty - Tonight's pitching matchup favors the Giants. That's because it's a battle of southpaws and the reigning World Series Champs are 53-33 vs. southpaws since the start of last season. They are batting .280 against them this year. Madison Bumgarner gets the start for San Francisco here and he will be going up against a Los Angeles lineup averaging a weak 3.3 runs per game vs. lefties in 2013. Bumgarner is 6-3 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.994 WHIP in nine career starts vs. the Dodgers. LA is also only 2-10 on the road vs. lefties this year.

3. X-Factor - The Dodgers are a horrible 5-18 this season as a road underdog.

Bruce Marshall

Pittsburgh vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago

It has been a bumpy few days for the Pirates, who were cooled off at home as the Phillies took 2 of 3 in a midweek set at PNC Park. With the offense hitting a lull in the past few days as the recent 9-game win streak retreats further in the rear-view mirror, the Bucs now have to deal with longtime nemesis Jeff Samardzija in the opener of this weekend set at Wrigley Field. The former Notre Dame wide receiver has been known to give the Pittsburgh hitters fits, allowing just 29 hits over 52 innings in his career vs. the Bucs while posting a 1.56 ERA. Already this season, Samardzija has allowed only 5 runs and 13 hits in 22 IP in three starts against the Pirates. No knocks on Pittsburgh starter Francisco Liriano, who pitched 7 shutout innings vs. the Cubs on May 22. But Chicago is not rolling for anybody over the past three weeks (11-9 over the past 20 games), and like this plus price for Samardzija vs.a foe he usually flusters.

Jim Feist

Minnesota at Toronto
Pick: Over

The Rogers Centre is a home run happy park and Minnesota goes with 32-year-old Kevin Correia, who pitches to contact and who has allowed 114 hits in 99 innings. He has been awful in his career against Toronto with a 6.23 ERA. Correia struggled in his last start, allowing five earned runs -- all in the third and fourth -- on seven hits and three walks over five innings. Toronto has a strong offense, 10th in baseball in runs scored, 6th in slugging, and the over is 16-7 in the Blue Jays last 23 home games. Toronto has a soft throwing pitcher of its own in 34-year-old lefty Mark Buehrle (4-5, 4.81 ERA), who has allowed more hits than innings pitched and has a 5.63 ERA his last three starts.

Jack Jones

Philadelphia Phillies -142

The Philadelphia Phillies have a massive edge on the mound tonight. That's why I'll lay the juice and back them as a home favorite over the Atlanta Braves Friday.

Cliff Lee is having a Cy Young-caliber season to this point. The left-hander has gone 9-2 with a 2.59 ERA and 0.966 WHIP over 17 starts. Lee is also 5-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in 11 career starts against Atlanta.

Tim Hudson is clearly washed up. The right-hander is 4-7 with a 4.22 ERA in 17 starts this season. Hudson has been at his worst away from home, going 1-7 with a 5.71 ERA in nine road starts in 2013.

The Braves are 0-8 in Hudson's last 8 road starts. Atlanta is 1-5 in its last 6 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Phillies are 39-14 in their last 53 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Philadelphia is 4-0 in Lee's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Phillies Friday.

Ray Monohan

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates

By trading SP Scott Feldman to Baltimore the Cubs declared they are giving up on the season. No surprise there but it won't help the mood on a team that is actually going through it's best stretch of the season right now. This is a good pitching duel between Francisco Liriano and Jeff Samardzija - there could definitely be a lot of whiffs. For all those Ks Samardzija racks up he still has a losing record on the season including a loss to Pittsburgh earlier this season, at Wrigley. I am expecting a repeat of that performance this evening as the Pirates begin another run against the downtrodden Cubbies.

Jesse Schule

Colorado vs. Arizona
Pick: Colorado

The Rockies won just 3-of-7 during a recent home stand, but they earned a big win over the Dodgers last night by a score of 9-5. Michael Cuddyer remains red hot, he was 2-for-3 with a home run last night. His franchise record 27 game hitting streak came to an end Tuesday, but he's recorded hits in 29 of his last 30 games, and he's hitting .366 during that span.

Jorge De La Rosa will get the nod for the visitors, and he's been excellent in recent starts. De La Rosa (8-4, 3.09 ERA) allowed one run on six hits over six innings in a 2-1 win over the Giants in his last start. Prior to that he surrendered a pair of runs on seven hits over six frames in a 7-6 win over Washington.

He's seen plenty of the D'Backs already this year, and he's 2-1 with a 1.58 ERA in three starts this season, and he came into this year with a record of 2-1, 3.38 ERA in five starts versus Arizona dating back to 2010.

The southpaw has been on top of his game, and he has history on his side, that combined with a red hot Michael Cuddyer should be enough to power the Rockies past Arizona tonight.

Greg Shaker

Chicago Cubs +126

No doubt about a few things here. The Cubs thrower today is the best they have got right now and the Cubs are playing pretty good baseball. Pitt continues to win games with Mirrors and Liriano has been using one of those with a higher WHIP than he should have based on his ERA. The Pirates cannot continue to win games not scoring runs and they have struggled a lot verses all kinds of pitching this year. They are still getting a lot of respect from Oddsmakers and too much IMO. The Cubs have been crushing lefties, averaging near 7.5 Per 9 Over their last 10 played. I'm playing 1% here at this betting line.

Jeff Alexander

Washington Nationals -146

The Padres enter this series on a 0-6 slide, and I don't see them ending their skid tonight. San Diego has dropped each of Cashner's last 3 starts as it has provided him with little run support. Plus, the right-hander hasn't been as sharp on the road where he has a 4.17 ERA. Washington is 3-0 in Gonzalez's last 3 starts while he's posted a 1.77 ERA. The Nats have won both of his starts against San Diego while he's tallied a 1.42 ERA. Washington gets the call.