Dave Price
Philadelphia Phillies -144
Atlanta's Tim Hudson has been horrible on the highway where he's 1-7 with an ERA of 5.71 in nine starts. The Braves are 0-8 in Hudson's last eight road starts. Philadelphia's Cliff Lee has been dealing all season, standing at 9-2 with a 2.58 ERA in 17 starts. The Phillies have won eight of his last 11 overall and seven of his last 10 at home. In addition, Lee has a 2.74 ERA against the Braves while Hudson has a 3.81 ERA against the Phillies. Lee has given up two earned runs or fewer in each of his last six starts versus the Braves. Look for Philly to come out on top behind another gem from Lee.
SPORTS WAGERS
Calgary +2 over SASKATCHEWAN
This is a tough game to call for so many reasons that we’re going to sit this one out. Hold a gun to our head and we’d take the Stamps but that’s the beautiful thing about sports-betting, we have a choice, the books do not. Calgary looked unbeatable last week but one has to consider that it was an emotionally charged atmosphere for the Stampeders playing their first game in Calgary after the devastating floods wreaked havoc on that city. It’s extremely difficult to follow up such an emotional win with another strong performance but the Stamps are so talented that they may not need to be as charged up. Drew Tate is 6-0 as a starting QB in the CFL in games he starts and finishes and that is something that can’t be ignored.
As for the Riders, well, they absolutely destroyed the Eskimos in Edmonton in their opener and barely broke a sweat in doing so. The Riders jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead, lead 22-1 at the half and 36-6 after three quarters before pulling up the reigns in a breeze through fourth quarter. Make no mistake, Darian Durant looked sharp but only threw the ball 22 times because the Riders had such an easy time of it. The Riders defense also looked sharp but that was against an unproven QB in Mike Reilly, who was picked off three times and went just 17-35. The question is whether the Riders are that good or are the Eskimos that bad. We’ll get a truer measure here but one thing we know for sure is that the Riders are taking a huge step up in class in facing Drew Tate and the talented Stamps offense. Too many unknowns intangibles here for us to confidently recommend a side so we’ll have to pass.
SPORTS WAGERS
KANSAS CITY +104 over Oakland
Tommy Milone is 7-7 with a 4.17 ERA, which isn’t so good when you consider that he’s benefited greatly from pitching half his games at O.co Coliseum. On the road, Milone has an ERA of 5.07 but he has an xERA on the road of 6.26. Milone is pure garbage. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a groundball/fly-ball split of 25%/57%. He has the lowest groundball rate of any starter in the majors with at least 10 starts this year. Milone has already surrendered 19 bombs in just 105.2 innings and will face a Royals team that owns the fourth best BA (.272) in the league against southpaws. Over the last month, covering five starts, Milone’s WHIP was 1.38. Milone is hittable, he can’t keep the ball in the yard and frankly, he has no business being favored on the road.
The A’s are favored here with Milone going because Wade Davis walked five batters in one inning in his last start in Minnesota and allowed six runs. Davis has been smacked around on more than a few occasions this season and he does come with some serious risk. However, prior to imploding in his last start, Davis had strung together four starts in a row of allowing two earned runs or fewer and that includes a game against the Tigers. That said, we’re not going to sugarcoat this and suggest that Davis qualifies as a strong starting pitcher because he does not. We’re merely pointing out that Davis has strikeout ability (73 K in 83 IP) and he and the Royals are undervalued at home against one of the most overvalued combos on the road, that being the A’s (22-22 on the road overall) with Tommy Milone going.
Miami +159 over ST. LOUIS
On the surface, the Marlins wouldn’t look like such a good bet in St. Louis against Jake Westbrook and his 2.95 ERA. However, Westbrook’s skills (26/27 BB/K and 4.47 xERA) say there's been quite a whole lot of of luck involved so far. Westbrook's 79% strand rate and 5% hr/f are due for some correction, though he is doing a great job of keeping the ball on the ground (60% GB%). The Miami offense also hasn't been a doormat lately with a .256 BA in June and 5.5 runs per game over the last week heading into this one. Westbrook isn’t even an average pitcher. He’s a serviceable. Below average one on a very good team. That doesn’t mean he should be in this price range.
The Marlins are an enthusiastic group that has been playing well for over a month. Miami is 8-2 over its last 10 and just took two of three in Atlanta, who own the best home record in baseball. Incidentally, the Cardinals are just 22-16 at home. Once again, we get a sweet price on the Marlins with Jacob Turner going and once again we’re on it. Turner has started just six games this season and could easily be 6-0 after he allowed three runs or fewer in all of them and two runs or fewer in five of those six. In 2011, Turner was the Tigers #1 pitching prospect. His fastball sits between 90-95 mph and he uses his 6’5” height well to pitch on a downward plane. The fastball exhibits nasty late life and he gets hitters to pound it into the ground. Turner has an elite 51%/18%/30% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile and has allowed just one jack over 41 innings. The Fish have won four of Turner’s six starts and he remains one of the league’s most undervalued starters. The Marlins absolutely have a great chance of extending their strong play of late. Big overlay.
TAMPA BAY -1½ +108 over Chicago
The White Sox managed to squeeze out a rare win yesterday but don’t expect lightning to strike twice in a row, especially on the road, where the South Side has won just 15 of 43 games. All it takes is a quick glance at Dylan Axelrod's monthly ERA trend to know something isn't right: 3.95 in April, 4.10 in May, and 5.88 in June. Axelrod's June was particularly troubling as he walked 15 batters, struck out just 14 in 26 frames and had a 5.97 xERA covering five starts. Axelrod also owns a disturbing 1.44 WHIP this season but perhaps the most disturbing number of all is his high 83% strand rate in June, which should have led to a low ERA month but instead he had an awful ERA month. Dylan Axelrod is on the verge of imploding for several starts in a row and is now officially on our fade list.
Jeremy Hellickson is so much better than his 4.90 ERA suggests. Hellickson is 5-1 over his last six starts with a skills supported 3.23 ERA. During that stretch he struck out 27 and walked seven over 35.2 innings Even more impressive is the six-game stretch in which Hellickson thrived occurred against Detroit, Toronto, Boston, K.C., Baltimore and Cleveland. That’s just sick. After facing that group in succession, facing the White Sox should be appear in slow motion for both Hellickson and the Rays. Put it on the board……Yes!
Sports Experts 17
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago Cubs
Francisco Liriano used to be a great pitcher, he had two horrible seasons (2011-2012), but now with the Pirates looks like the old Liriano is coming back, the only problem Sports Experts 17 see in this game is that he will face a powerful Friday Cubs that in home in a daily game they are very difficult to beat and with Jeff Samardzija and his losing record 5-7, he still a great and strong at home. Don't think this will be a easy game for the Pirates.
Game Plan
LA Angels -130
Red Sox are 0-5 in Doubront's last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Red Sox are 3-8 in Doubront's last 11 starts during game 1 of a series. Red Sox are 21-43 in their last 64 games as a road underdog. Angels are 8-1 in Wilson's last 9 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Angels are 8-1 in their last 9 overall. Take LA Angels.
MLB Predictions
Los Angeles Dodgers +118
The Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 and have gotten to within 3.5 games of first in the NL West. The Giants on the other hand are just 1-9 in their last 10 and have fallen to last place in the division. Los Angeles had won 4 straight before losing last night's meeting with Colorado 9-5. They have won 10 of their last 12 overall and are one of the hottest teams in baseball. The Giants are coming off a 9 game road trip to forget as they were swept in Los Angeles, lost two of three in Colorado, and then were just swept in Cincinnati where they scored just 3 runs over the 3 games. In fact the Giants have scored 2 or fewer runs in 8 of their last 10 games. The Dodgers have Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound who is 6-3 on the season with a 2.83 ERA, .245 OBA and 1.24 WHIP. He faced the Giants on the 24th of June giving up 8 hits but just 1 earned run in 6.2 innings of work. He has given up 3 or fewer earned runs against in 9 straight starts. The Giants send their ace Matt Cain to the mound who is 5-4 on the year with a 4.29 ERA, .216 OBA and 1.07 WHIP. After a rough start to the year he is pitching much better posting a 3.10 ERA in June. The Giants are just 8-9 when he starts this year (the Dodgers are 10-6 with Ryu on the mound). Note that the Dodgers are 7-1 in their last 8 divisional games, 4-1 in their last 5 road games, and 5-2 in Ryu's last 7 starts. The Giants have lost 9 of 10, are just 1-5 in their last 6 divisional games, and just 1-4 in their last 5 games vs a left handed starter. Right now the Dodgers are very dangerous with Puig, Gonzalez, Ramirez, Ethier and Kemp through the middle of their order. Given how hot the Dodgers are and how cold the Giants bats are, with a pretty even pitching match up, I like the value here on Los Angeles +118.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
PHILADELPHIA -141 over Atlanta: Cliff Lee has been excellent for the Phils this year, posting a 9-2 record with a 2.59 ERA and an 0.97 WHIP on the year. He has pitched well vs the Braves of late as the Phils are 5-1 in his last 5 starts vs them and Cliff has posted an 0.71 ERA in those 5 starts. Actually going back 6 starts vs the Braves, Cliff has an 0.78 ERA vs them. Tim Hudson has pitched well at home, but on the road he has been horrible, with a 1-7 mark and a 5.71 ERA. The Braves are 1-8 in his road starts and have been outscored by 3 rpg in those games. The Braves overall have struggled on the road this year at 20-23, while the Phils have been playing much better at home, winning 7 of their last 10 here. I know that Philly is off a long road trip, but they are an amazing 39-14 in their last 53 games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Phils just took 2 of three in Pittsburgh and they have Lee on the mound, while Atlanta struggles on the road with Hudson on the mound, so I will look for Philly to start of this series with a big win here.
KANSAS CITY +100 over Oakland: Neither starter is in good form as they enter this game, but I feel the KC offense is playing better right now and they have some momentum after taking the last 2 games vs Cleveland. Kansas City is averaging 6.4 rpg in their last 5 games and 5.6 rpg in their last 10 games and will be taking on a struggling Tommy Milone here. Tommy comes in with a 1-1 mark in his last 3 starts, but he has a 7.31 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in those starts. On the road he is just 3-4 with a 5.04 ERA for the year. Wade Davis is struggling as well as he comes in with a 1-1 mark and a 6.43 ERA with a 1.93 WHIP in his last 3 starts, but he is facing an Oakland offense that has scored just 3.6 rpg in their last 5 games, putting up just 1 run in 3 of those games. Big series for KC as they look to get back to .500 before the All-Star break and having this game at home helps as the home team has won 8 of the last 10 in the series. Look for the Royals to take game 1 here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
CINCINNATI -1.5 (-105) over Seattle: Terrible spot for Seattle, coming off taking 2 of 3 in Texas and now travel to Cincinnati where the Reds are 29-14 and off a day off thanks to rain. Mike Leake is 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in his last 4 starts, while Aaron Harang is 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA on the road this year and the Mariners have been outscored by 6.4 rpg in his road starts. Easy Cincy win here.
Cleveland/ Detroit Over 8.5: Cleveland's offense is hot as they have put up 6.4 rpg in their alst 10 games and Porcello has an 8.80 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Justin Masterson has been solid for the Tribe, but this Detroit offense is very strong, averaging 5.6 rg in their last 5 games and 5 rpg in their last 10 games. Both teams should put up at least 4 runs each.
Harry Bondi
BALTIMORE (-110) over NY Yankees
The New York Yankees have struggled with the Orioles this year including getting swept by the birds in Baltimore last weekend. Orioles are playing great baseball and have been pounding the ball. Tonight's Orioles starter Miguel Gonzalez is 6-3 with a 3.77 ERA this year and his ERA against new York is an even more impressive 2.41 in three career starts. Yankees plug in Ivan Nova, who has a 2-3 lifetime record with a 5.70 ERA vs Baltimore, in place of Hiroki Kuroda who is nursing a hip flexor. Baltimore is simply the better team and also has the stronger pitcher going. The line also tells you that Vegas agrees with us as the Yankees are rarely home underdogs and have won just 20% of the time under that scenario over the last two years! Orioles fly high.
Rocketman
Oakland Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Oakland Athletics
The Oakland A's travel to Kansas City to take on the Royals on Friday night. Oakland has played well this season with a 50-36 overall record while Kansas City is now 40-42 overall this year. Oakland has won 6 of their past 8 games overall. Oakland is allowing only 3.3 runs per game their past seven games overall allowing opponents a combined team batting average of only .233. Kansas City is scoring only 3.3 runs per game against left handed starters this year where they have a team batting average of only .233. Tom Milone has done decent this year for Oakland with a 7-7 overall record. Wade Davis gets the start for Kansas City where he has really been somewhat of a disappointment. Davis is 4-6 with a 5.55 ERA overall this year, 1-3 with a 4.53 ERA at home this season and 1-1 with a 6.43 ERA his last 3 starts. Oakland is 3-0 overall vs Kansas City this year. Milone is 2-1 with a 1.29 ERA in all his starts vs Kansas City in his career. Davis has a whopping 6.75 ERA in all his starts vs Oakland in his career. We'll recommend a small play on Oakland tonight!
Andre Gomes
Pirates / Cubs Under 7.5
The Pirates finally lost a series against Philadelphia, including a loss yesterday where they were dominated by Cole Hamels! On the other side, the Cubs had to make a big trip from Oakland to Chicago overnight, even though they barely played yesterday, as they were simply terrible on offense.
Today's game should be great, as we have two excellent pitchers on the mount! Pittsburgh will start Francisco Liriano and he is coming from one run allowed over six innings against Milwaukee last Saturday. Liriano struggled against San Francisco, but then bounced back with three quality outings in a row, including two legit great starts on his last two outings. Liriano faced just one top ranked offense on his last six games (LA Angels), but he dominated them. The Cubs' lineup has been above average over the last two weeks, but they were a disaster yesterday and they won't have David DeJesus, Luis Valbuena and Nate Schierholtz in the lineup today. Liriano has already faced the Cubs twice this season and he was incredible in both outings with no earned runs allowed in seven innings on each start. I expect the same to happen today.
On the other side, the Cubs will start Jeff Samardzija today, who is coming from a win at Seattle, on his third quality outing in a row as well. Just like Liriano, Samardzija has been in great form lately, even though he hasn't been facing a lot of tough opposition lately. This will be Samardzija's fourth game against the Pirates this season and he dominated in the first two games played at Pittsburgh, but then struggled on a third game at home with four earned runs allowed in six innings. However, Pittsburgh's offense struggled against the Phillies and if Samardzija keeps playing at the level he has been showing as of late, he should be able to have a good outing today. I believe this game will be a pure pitchers-duel with both Liriano and Samardzija dominating and therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Red Dog Sports
Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +108
Look for the Rays to win by 2 or more runs on Friday night. Hellickson is 3-0 with an ERA of 1.42 in his last 3 starts while Axelrod's is 0-3 with an ERA of 5.94 in that span. I think we see a 5-2 type of win by the home team as Hellickson's last 4 home games are wins by 3-1, 4-1 and 8-0 along with a 10-1 loss.
Craig Davis
The White Sox are 14 games under .500 and in last place in the AL Central... and that's after their 3-2 win over Baltimore Thursday after Adam Dunn broke a 2-2 tie with a solo home run.
Jeremy Hellickson (7-3, 4.90 ERA) gets the start for the Rays in tonight's game vs. the White Sox and has posted a 1.42 ERA over his last three starts. In April and May, however, he posted a 2-2 record with a 5.61 ERA.
When I handicap a pitcher, I don't often look at the overall numbers as much as I look at how they've been pitching lately... and Hellickson has been as good as anyone.
He looks to pitch Tampa Bay to its sixth win in seven games after a 7-5 win over Houston Thursday in extra innings.
Chicago starter, Dylan Axelrod (3-4, 4.57 ERA), who has posted a 7.40 ERA over his last four outings and is expected to turn things around in a hurry. I don't see it happening tonight.
This is a pitching mismatch at its finest... take Tampa as your free play of the day.
3♦ TAMPA BAY -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is Under the total in the Padres-Nationals game.
The Padres just have not been scoring runs lately, as San Diego has only come up with 7 runs total over their last 6 games, and each of their last 4 games have played Under the total.
Washington did plate 8 yesterday, but in their previous pair were only able to come up with 1 run total, as the Nats have held low in 2 of their last 3 games.
Andrew Cashner and Gio Gonzalez have been throwing the pill quite well of late, as Cashner's ERA is 2.61 for his last 3 starts, while Gonzalez has a even lower ERA of 1.77 for his last 3 starts.
Going to look for a pitcher's duel to open the weekend in the nation's capital, and for the Padres to make it 5 straight unders in this low-scoring contest tonight.
Padres-Nationals Under the total.
3♦ SAN DIEGO-WASHINGTON UNDER
Brad Wilton
Friday's comp play is the Over in the Orioles-Yankees contest.
Baltimore does come into this one off of 3 straight Unders in their series with the Chicago White Sox, and they have been Under the total in each of their last 4, but they are facing a New York team that is starting to swing the bats a little better of late.
The Yankees just played Overs in 3 of their 4 games in Minnesota, and they are seeing Baltimore starter Miguel Gonzalez for a second time this year, so they should be a little more familiar with what Gonzalez wants to do on the mound.
Ivan Nova is making just his second start since April, and his over 10 ERA the last 3 times he has faced the Orioles certainly does not bode well for the Yankees.
Look for the runs to add up in the weekend opener from Yankee Stadium.
2♦ BALTIMORE-N.Y. YANKEES OVER
Brett Atkins
My free winner for tonight is on the New York Mets against the Milwaukee Brewers, and I want you listing Zack Wheeler over Johnny Hellweg. Though Wheeler struggled in his home debut in his last outing, allowin five runs on six hits to a surging Nationals team, it's hard to overlook a prospect the Mets have been counting on.
I know the right-hander's fastball command and ability to shut down hitters has been inconsistent through three starts, but this might be the right spot for him - away from CitiField.
There is a lot of pressure - and expectation - in Queens, where the All-Star festivities will begin next week, and there's a huge spotlight right now. Many handicappers and analysts are too busy looking at numbers and don't spend enough time learning about the pitchers and personalities they're dealing with, and I can tell you this is just what Wheeler needs.
On the flipside of things, Hellweg (0-1) gave up seven runs - five of 'em earned - over a mere 1-2/3 innings in his MLB debut. And I like Wheelers' chances much better than Milwaukee's young right-hander.
Take the Mets and list both.
4♦ N.Y. METS