Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday July, 6

Marc Lawrence

San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates

The surging Pirates host the Giants at PNC Park Friday night where Barry Zito toes the slab for San Francisco in a not-so-desirous situation. That's because Zito is winless in his two career teams start in the Steel City. He is also 0-3 away with a 10.98 ERA in his last three July road team starts. With Zito's road ERA (4.93) nearly two runs worse than his home ERA (3.09) this season, look for for the Bucs to continue their winning ways here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Pittsburgh.

Scott Spreitzer

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: New York Yankees

Hiroki Kuroda has been a pleasant surprise for the Yankees this season. Kuroda put up strong numbers for the Dodgers, but pitching at Chavez Ravine is the perfect place for a flyball pitcher. Pitching in the Bronx is not. However, Kuroda hasn't missed a beat in the AL and put together a ridiculous month of June. Kuroda "punched out" 43 batters in six June starts, spanning 41 innings. He posted a 1.98 ERA & 1.00 WHIP along the way. As soon as you think Boston is ready to get on a roll they drop three in a row in Oakland after splitting a four-game set in Seattle. The Red Sox' offense has gone silent, scoring a grand total of just 14 runs in their last seven games. Not only are they facing a red-hot starting pitcher, but Kuroda is backed by MLB's 7th best pen. It's been a case of "no Mariano - no problem" for the Yankee bullpen. David Robertson and Rafael Soriano have been tremendous posting 2.42 and 1.72 ERA's, respectively. I doubt the Sox will break out of their hitting slump tonight. Boston is just 10-21 in their last 31 home games against righthanders. Meanwhile, the Yankees are on a 7-1 run on the road against righties and they're 5-1 in their last six meetings with the Red Sox. Boston starter Josh Beckett has pitched pretty well of late, but just like in his last four starts, I expect the Red Sox offense to betray him on Friday. I'm recommending a play on the Yankees.

Rob Vinciletti

Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Kansas City Royals

KC is 9-1 as a road dog from +150 to +175 which is pretty amazing by all accounts. Detroit is just 4-9 as a home favorites from -150 to -175 and have dropped 8 of 11 on Friday. Sanchez has some solid starts vs Detroit and has allowed just 5 runs in 17 innings against Detroit. Smyly has struggled with an elevated era over 8 his last 3 starts. Never to leave out a system we add this nugget. Home favorites of -140 or higher with a total of 10 or more that come in off a home favored win and scored 5 or more runs are 1-8 straight up the last several years vs an opponent off a road dog win and scored 5 or more runs. Take the Royals to surprise the Tigers here tonight.

Jesse Schule

San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates spent the entire month of June, raping, pillaging and plundering! They scored more runs, and hit more home runs that any other team in baseball last month. So far in July, much of the same, coming off a four game sweep of the Astros, and scoring 27 runs in their last four games

The will try to keep up their winning ways today, as they send Erik Bedard to the hill. Bedard (4-9, 4.57 ERA) has been horrible on the road this year. In his last two starts, he allowed nine runs on eight hits, with three home runs allowed, in just 10 innings. He has been much better at home though, his last home start he went six solid innings, allowing just one run on four hits in a tough 2-1 loss. He should be looking for a better result, and can likely count on more run support today.

Barry Zito gets the start for the Giants, and he has also struggled lately. Zito (6-6, 3.84) is coming off consecutive quality starts at home, however one of those was against a Dodgers team that was riding a streak of being shutout five of six games. His last time out on the road, he allowed eight runs on nine hits, exiting in the game early after just three innings. Despite holding the Reds to just a single earned run in his last start, he did allow six walks. If Zito walks six Pirates batters, he won't be so fortunate.

I expect the swashbuckling Pirates to plunder, reaping a giant booty against Zito this afternoon.

Larry Ness

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
PICK: Dodgers

The Dodgers entered last Sunday night’s home game with the Mets in a total free-fall. LA was 42-25 on the morning of June 18 but the Dodgers had gone 1-11 since, including losses in their last SEVEN games! The culprit was an anemic offense, as the team was batting a collective .172 while scoring only 1.25 RPG, including plating just FIVE runs during its seven-game losing streak. The swoon had dropped them into second in the NL West, one game back of San Francisco, after leading by 7 1/2 on May 27. However, despite falling behind 3-1, the Dodgers rallied to win 8-3. LA then took two of three at home vs the Reds and last night, opened a four-game series in Arizona by winning 4-1. All of a sudden, with the Giants having lost FIVE of six, the Dodgers are back on top in the NL West by 1 1/2 games. It was last year’s NY Cy Young winner Clayton Kerswhaw who helped lead LA to last Sunday’s win (ending the team’s seven-game slide) and Kershaw is back on the mound tonight. Kershaw limited the Mets to three runs (one earned) on five hits in seven innings last Sunday and will take a 6-4 record with a 2.65 ERA into tonight’s contest. Kershaw was 21-5 with a 2.28 ERA last year, allowing a modest 174 hits over his 233.1 innings while posting a 248-54 KW ratio. The Dodgers would go 23-10 in his 33 starts, as he was plus-$1141 vs the moneyline, the 4th-best mark among all pitchers. The 2012 season hasn’t been a repeat performance, but he has allowed just 91 hits in 115.1 innings with a 112-30 KW ratio plus a 2.65 ERA (team is 11-6 in his starts). The man can still pitch. His career mark against Arizona is 7-2 with a 1.92 ERA in 11 starts (team is 8-3) and in eight starts against Arizona since 2010, he is 7-1 with a 1.23 ERA (hasn't allowed a SINGLE run in half of those starts!). Josh Collmenter will get the start for Arizona. He was a nice surprise for Arizona last year, working his way from the bullpen into the starting rotation. He finished 10-10 with a 3.38 ERA in 31 appearances (24 starts). He opened this season in the rotation and after four starts, had allowed 25 hits and 20 ERs over 18.1 innings for a 9.82 ERA (0-3 / team 1-3). He was banished to the bullpen after that awful start and made NINE consecutive relief appearances. He then pitched four solid innings in an emergency start a week ago Friday when Joe Saunders could not get loose warming up (allowed three hits and one run, as Arizona won 6-1). Collmenter then replaced Daniel Hudson in the second inning Tuesday and tossed four scoreless innings. Now, with Daniel Hudson suffering a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and on the DL, Collmemter is back in the rotation. Collmenter allowed just one run on three hits in six innings against the Milwaukee Brewers last time out (Sunday), although the D’backs lost 2-1. Collmeter did pitch two scoreless innings in a relief appearance against the Dodgers in May but was 1-2 with an 8.25 ERA in three starts against them last year. I want no part of him here, matched up against Kershaw. Take the Dodgers.

Chris Elliott

Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Cleveland Indians

The Tampa Bay Rays (43-40) will give the ball to right hander Alex Cobb on Friday night when face off with the Cleveland Indians (43-39). Cobb has a record of 3-5, with a 4.94 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a .269 BAA. In his last 5 starts he is 1-4 while allowing 21 runs in 34 innings for an ERA of 5.56. Tampa Bay has a record of 1-2 in 3 starts that Cobb has made on the road so far this season.

Cleveland will counter with 27 year old righty Justin Masterson for Fridays tilt with the Tampa Bay Rays. Masterson has looked good for Cleveland this year with a record of 5-7, an ERA of 3.92, a WHIP of 1.29, and a BAA of .242. In his previous 5 starts he has gone 3-2 while giving up 6 runs over 26 innings of work for an ERA of 1.50.

Tampa Bay has been awful on the road against Cleveland, with a record of 4-16 in their last 20 visits to Progressive Field. On the season they are 19-21 on the road, 3-7 in their past 10 games overall and are 6-11 as a road dog of +100 to +125.

The Tribe have a record of 23-19 at home this season and are 6-4 in their last 10 games overall. They are 28-20 in night games this season and 35-23 vs. RHP. Jose Lopez (.556), Lou Marson (.474), and Shin-Soo Choo (.433) have been on fire over the past 7 days.

By one half game, the Indians are a better team than the Rays. They are at home with the better starting pitcher, my recipe for success. Take the Indians to "Win" in this game.

Freddy Wills

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

One of those pitchers is Clayton Kershaw who absolutely has been on fire posting a 1.71 ERA in his last three starts and has a 2.78 ERA on the road this year. He's 7-1 in his last 8 starts vs. the Diamondbacks ironically considering the Diamondbacks have always had success against lefties. The Dbacks though have a combined 129 AB and just a .140 and .381 OPS to show for it against Kershaw. The Dodgers have been struggling to score runs, but since their win against the Mets on Sunday night they've won 3 of 4 with Thursday's game pending. The Dodgers are 14-3 in Kershaw's last 17 on 4 days rest and it just so happens he will be on 4 days rest here again before the All Star break.

On the hill for the Diamondbacks is Josh Collmenter who really pitched over his head last year and is having a decent year thus far. However, he did not pitch well against the Dodgers and even though Matt Kemp still won't be looming in the on deck circle Andre Ethier, Gordon and Juan Rivera are a combined 9-12 and that's enough for me to think they can score some runs to support Clayton Kershaw.

Notable Hot Starters:
Justin Masterson (2-1, 0.82 WHIP, 2.05 ERA)
Drew Pomeranz (1-2, 1.34 WHIP, 2.30 ERA)
Hiroki Kuroda (2-1, 0.95 WHIP, 2.14 ERA)
Francisco Liriano (3-0, 1.11 WHIP, 2.84 ERA)
Travis Wood (3-0, 0.85 WHIP, 0.44 ERA)
Johan Santana (2-1, 0.95 WHIP, 0.90 ERA)
Yovani Gallardo (2-1, 1.29 WHIP, 2.33 ERA)
Tom Milone (2-1, 0.81 WHIP, 0.86 ERA)
C.J. Wilson (3-0, 1.47 WHIP, 2.45 ERA)
Jake Westbrook (3-0, 1.14 WHIP, 2.57 ERA)
J.A. Happ (2-1, 1.05 WHIP, 2.84 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Though this is not going to be any sort of a sports pick that is backed by our sports monitor we still like to give out the cold pitcher with the best shot at winning because often times there is a lot of value. Today's pitcher Drew Smyly will start against the struggling Kansas City Royals who have limited at bats against him just 23 posting a .681 OPS. I'll give him the better chance since he's at home against Jonathan Sanchez who posts an 8.44 ERA over his last three starts.

Notable Cold Starters:
Jonathan Sanchez (0-3, 2.25 WHIP, 8.44 ERA)
Kyle Kendrick (1-2, 1.62 WHIP, 6.23 ERA)
Kevin Millwood (1-2, 1.74 WHIP, 6.39 ERA)

Jimmy Boyd

Texas Rangers -145

Texas hasn't lost more than four in a row this season. The last time it lost four straight, it responded with a 7-3 win over the Angels. I expect a similar response this evening. The Rangers are an impressive 40-17 in their last 57 home games, 41-14 in their last 55 games following a loss, 21-3 in their last 24 home games after 2 or more consecutive losses and 44-15 in their last 59 series openers. In addition, Minnesota's Liriano cannot be trusted on the road, where he's 0-5 with a 6.44 ERA. Texas' Perez pitched well in his first major league start. The 21-year-old left-hander allowed two runs in 5 1-3 innings of a 7-2 win over Oakland. He should find more success this evening as Minnesota isn't familiar with his stuff. Take Texas.

Jack Jones

Texas Rangers -140

After dropping four straight, including a sweep at the hands of the Chicago White Sox over the weekend, the Texas Rangers return home highly motivated for a victory tonight. Texas is still 50-33 on the season, including 27-15 in home games.

The Rangers will be welcoming the Minnesota Twins to town just in time to turn things around. The Twins are owners of the second-worst record in the American League at 35-47. Texas has won four straight over Minnesota in this series.

Francisco Liriano has struggled all year for the Twins, going 2-7 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.473 WHIP in 13 starts and five relief appearances. The left-hander is 0-5 with a 6.44 ERA and 1.671 WHIP in six road starts as well. In his lone start this season, Texas' Martin Perez gave up two earned runs over 5 1/3 innings of a 7-2 victory over Oakland.

The Rangers have not lost five straight games in over a year. That last happened from June 11-16 back in 2011. Texas is 21-3 in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Rangers Friday.

Jim Feist

Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

Both these clubs chasing the respective leaders of their conference. Miami has won six of their last 10 games and have moved to 8 1/2 games back of first place Washington. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are just 2 1/2 games back of the Buccaneers in the NL Central. Ricky Nolasco will start for the Marlins on Friday. Nolasco is 7-6 this season with a 4.62 ERA and is coming off a pair of solid performances. Still, Nolasco has won just a single time in his last six starts against four losses. Jake Westbrook gets the nod for the Cardinals. Westbrook has been very consistent. Even thought Westbrook allowed five runs his last start, he's still had seven quality starts with just the one game over four earned runs. The Marlins are becoming better, but not tonight in St Louis as I like the Cardinals.

SPORTS WAGERS

Miami +130 over ST. LOUIS

Miami had a rough June, ranking 29th in the league in runs scored. This is a team with plenty of offensive weapons that had a bad month. As a result, they could be a live pooch over the next couple of weeks and coming off back-to-back wins in Milwaukee gives them a little momentum heading into this final weekend before the break. Ricky Nolasco tossed a gem in his last start. Despite all his inconsistencies, he's raised his GB% to a career high 48% this year. The Cardinals couldn't hit him on June 25 (6 IP, 0 ER, 4 Ks), and given the venue it stands to reason he should produce another successful outing. Jake Westbrook is an inning eater. He’s also the epitome of an average pitcher. Westbrook had a rough outing against the Pirates in his last start, he has a 4.98 ERA at pitcher-friendly Busch and he can implode on any given day. Westbrook has much more appeal taking back a price than he does when spotting one, thus giving us some nice value on the Fish. Play: Miami +130 (Risking 2 units).

Richard Witt

Toronto Blue Jays +141

Having completed a sweep of the Rangers, it'll be tough to fault the White Sox for taking a breather here. It surely wouldn't surprise Peavy, who's gotten scant run support in recent starts. Jays' pitching is sufficiently-legitimate to keep a lid on this. Take the visitor in a nice value play .

CFL Predictions

Winnipeg / Montreal Under 51.5

This bet comes down to the one question…do the Montreal Alouettes have enough pride on defense to bounce back after a brutal showing last week against Calgary to hold down a far less potent Winnipeg attack? My answer is yes. I’m not enamored with the Alouettes defense. They are rebuilt on that side of the football as I’ve stated before and will probably struggle to slow down the top tier offenses in the league. The difference this week being that Winnipeg is no juggernaut on offense and this will be a major step down in class in offensive firepower from facing a Stampeders squad that literally “stampeded” all over the outclassed Montreal D in Week 1. Marc Trestman gave his views on the defense during practice earlier this week: “We have to start over, prove and earn our right to be talked about as the best. We weren’t close to the team we wanted to be. It surprised us, but got our attention.” Winnipeg averaged a paltry 3.6 ypp (yards per pass) in Week 1 against BC which tells you their offense was made up mostly of dink and dunk passing and a ball control type of offense trying to run the football and execute well in the short passing game. That is a far cry from the explosive Calgary offense that torched them in Week 1 with a strong running game and a downfield vertical attack—two things Winnipeg doesn’t really have. It should allow Montreal to gain at least some traction and some improvement from their Week 1 performance on defense.

Montreal’s offense showed legitimate signs of concern in Week 1. Pass protection from the OL was non-existent against Calgary. Anthony Calvillo was under pressure all day forcing him into poor throws consistently. There was no running game whatsoever for RB Brandon Whitaker and that’s where all the problems started. I’d expect the Alouettes to make a concerted effort to run the football in this game after the Alouettes rushed for only 39 yards against Calgary. I keep power ratings in the CFL in three categories: overall rating, offense rating and defense rating and right now Winnipeg is ranked 4th in my ratings in the CFL in total defense. Don’t necessarily expect Montreal to rebound drastically from their Week 1 10 point effort on offense and even if they do, I’d expect methodical drives in this game from the Alouettes featuring the run because being able to run the football is what opens things up in the passing game for them.

The last two meetings between these teams at Percival Molson Stadium in Montreal have seen 48 and 41 points scored. It’s also worth noting that the Under is a highly profitable 7-3 in the last 10 games between these teams in Montreal and the Under is 6-2 in Montreal’s last 8 home games.

At the opening total of 50, this is a bet that probably stays on the sidelines (no pun intended) but with the shift upwards to the 51.5’s that are sitting out there right now, I think there is enough value here to make a smaller play at half a unit on this game being a bit more lower scoring than projected. Montreal’s early season defensive growing pains are what also keeps this one a smaller bet for me but it’s still worthy of a wager as my Week 2 CFL free play.

Wunderdog

San Antonio at Washington
Pick: Washington +5

The San Antonio Silver Stars were in Indiana last night, and after a no-show in the first half that found them down by 15 points, they poured it on in the second half out-scoring the Fever 60-29. That game took a tremendous effort, and energy. Travelling to Washington, and playing the next night against a cupcake opponent that is a woeful 3-10 on the season is not going to have them bringing their "A" game. Washington may be 3-10 on the season, but they have played a lot of teams tough. All three of their wins have come at home, and they beat Indiana here, and lost to Minnesota by just 2. This is a tough spot for San Antonio vs. a pesky opponent that won't get their attention. Play on Washington.