Carolina Sports
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
Yovani Gallardo comes into this game in great pitching form as he is 1-1 with a 2.33 ERA his last three starts. While he has not fared well on the road this year he is going against one of the worst hitting teams in the Houston Astros. JA Happ is in very good pitching form as well for Houston, but has not done well in his career against Milwaukee as he has a 4.75 ERA in 7 games. Gallardo is 10-2 lifetime in 12 starts with a 2.81 ERA against Houston. Gallardo is 20-2 vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Astros have lost eight in a row and we are not going against that streak with a quality pitcher like Gallardo on the mound. Take Milwaukee.
Jeff Alexander
LA Angels -1.5 +107
The Angels are showing value laying 1.5 runs at this price with ace C.J. Wilson on the bump. The Halos have won each of his last eight starts by an average of 3.6 runs, and 6 of those wins came by at least 2 runs. Also, LA has had plenty of offensive production versus Baltimore. LA owns a 5-1 record in this season's series with the Orioles. It has scored at least six runs in each of the 5 victories and have outscored the Orioles by a 43-20 margin overall. Expect the Angels to cover the run line here as they continue their hot hitting and Wilson takes care of the rest.
Dave Price
LA Dodgers -110
The Dodgers, who have won 3 in a row, are showing value with Kershaw on the mound against an Arizona club that has lost 6 straight. The ace lefty is having a solid season. He's 6-4 (11-6 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.65. Plus, he's had Arizona's number, going 7-2 (8-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.92 in 11 career starts. The Dodgers are 37-16 in Kershaw's last 53 starts and 40-18 in his last 58 starts as a favorite. The D-backs, meanwhile, are just 1-4 in Collmenter's last 5 starts. He has an ERA of 6.99 in 6 starts this season. Bet the Dodgers.
Charlies Sports
Los Angeles Dodgers -110
The (47-37) Los Angeles Dodgers of the National League West division will take on the (39-43) Arizona Diamondbacks also of the MLB National League West division in 2012 MLB action. The Dodgers will Left handed Clayton Kershaw, who is (6-4) with a 2.65 era this season to the pitchers mound vs. Right Handed Josh Collmenter (0-2) with a 4.41 era. The teams are 3-3 head to head so far in 2012. Dodgers get the road win -110.
MLB Predictions
Cleveland Indians -1.5 +145
Cleveland won the first of 4 games between these two clubs by a score of 3-1. The Indians have now won 5 of their last 6, while the Rays have lost 8 of their last 11. Cleveland is now 43-39 on the year and 23-19 at home, while the Rays are 43-40 and 19-21 on the road. Tonight's starter for Tampa Bay is Alex Cobb who is 3-5 on the season with a 4.94 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and .269 opponents batting average. In his last two starts he has allowed 21 hits and 12 earned runs against, and his ERA is 5.92 over his last 6 starts. Justin Masterson will be on the rubber for Cleveland and he is 5-7 on the year with a 3.92 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and .242 opponents batting average. Over his last 5 starts he has allowed just 5 earned runs against (with 4 of those games allowing 1 earned run or less including a complete game shutout). At home he is 3-3 with a low 2.73 ERA, and in June his ERA was 2.06 (compared to Cobb whose ERA is 5.85 on the road and was 5.34 in June). In their last 8 games the Indians have scored 6+ runs six times, while the Rays have scored more than 4 runs just once over their past 11. Note Tampa Bay is 5-16 in their last 21 vs AL Central opponents, 0-4 in their last 4 road games, and 1-5 in Cobb's last 6 starts. The Indians are 6-1 in their last 7 home games, 4-1 in their last 5 vs AL East opponents, and 15-7 in Masterson's last 22 starts following a quality start in his last outing. We're taking the Indians tonight and with the two pitchers on the mound tonight plus the difference in hitting between the clubs lately we will take the value on the run line.
Cubs / Mets Under 7.5
The Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 games, which has included two wins by tonight's starter. New York had a walk off win last night and have now won 6 of their last 8 games. On the mound tonight for this southpaw match up will be Travis Wood and Johan Santana. Wood is 3-3 on the season with a 3.05 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and .206 opponents batting average. He has been exceptional as of late allowing just 1 earned run over his last 3 starts (all of which he has gone 6 or more innings). Santana has re-gained his form after two rough starts following his no hitter. In his last three he has gone 2-1 with a 0.90 ERA (allowing just 2 earned runs over those 3 starts). On the year he is 6-4 with a 2.76 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and .207 opponents batting average. Note that the UNDER is 5-2 in the Cubs last 7 overall, and 3-0-1 in Wood's last 4 starts vs a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 10-4-3 in Santana's last 17 starts as a favorite, and 5-1-1 in his last 7 starts vs a team with a losing record. With the way these two starters are pitching right now runs should be hard to come by. Take the UNDER.
Los Angeles Dodgers -105
After a very rough stretch for the Dodgers they have managed to jump right back winning 3 of their last 4 games including a 4-1 win over Arizona in last night's series opener. The D'backs are in the middle of a 6 game losing streak which I think will continue tonight. Included in their losing skid was San Diego sweeping them at home this week. Clayton Kershaw had a few below average starts but has bounced back with three straight quality starts where he is 1-1 with a 1.71 ERA and has struck out 7+ batters in each of those starts. Josh Collmenter is 0-2 on the season with a 4.41 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and .273 opponents batting average, but his ERA jumps to 6.99 as a starter over 6 starts this year. Note that the Dodgers are 9-4 in Kershaw's last 53 starts as a home favorite, and 11-5 in his last 16 road starts overall. The Diamondbacks are losers of 4 straight home games, and are just 1-4 in Collmenter's last 5 starts overall. The Dodgers are 7-1 in Kershaw's last 8 starts vs Arizona, and Los Angeles has taken 5 of their last 7 meetings overall. Take the Dodgers at a good price tonight vs the struggling D'backs.
San Diego Padres +1.5 -145
I'm not sure where it has come from, but good pitching and good hitting has allowed the Padres to win 6 straight games. Last night they beat the Reds in the opener 2-1 and I wouldn't be surprised to see them make it 7 straight wins tonight. The Reds have lost 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5. Bronson Arroyo will start for Cincinnati and he is 3-5 on the season with a 4.06 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .279 opponents batting average. Over his last 3 he is 0-1 with a 5.09 ERA. Kip Wells will get his third start of the year tonight and he has done well going 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and .277 opponents batting average over his first two starts on the road vs Houston and Colorado. Take note that the Reds are just 2-5 in Arroyo's last 7 starts, and 1-5 in his last 6 road starts. The Padres who have won 6 straight games are 8-3 in their last 11 games vs Cincinnati. Although I think the Padres have a good chance at winning their 7th straight I like the odds with them getting a run on the run line, so we will lay a bit of chalk and take the Padres +1.5 at home.
Rocketman
NY Yankees @ Boston
Play: NY Yankees -105
The NY Yankees travel to Boston to take on the Red Sox in Game One of this 3 game series. NY Yankees are 8-1 when they play after a day off this season. Boston is scoring only two runs per game their past seven games overall. Hiroki Kuroda is 8-7 with a 3.17 ERA overall this year and 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA his last 3 starts. Kuroda has a 2.57 ERA in his one start vs Boston in his career. He allowed only six hits and two earned runs in his 7 innings of work in that game. He also had 9 strike outs compared to only 1 walk in that appearance. NY Yankees are 7-1 last 8 games on the road against a right handed starter. Yankees are 21-6 last 27 games after a win. Yankees are 21-8 last 29 overall and 10-3 last 13 road games. Boston is 10-21 last 31 home games against a right handed starter. Boston is 0-4 last 4 games when Beckett starts. Yankees have won 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series. We'll recommend a small play on the NY Yankees tonight!
Kyle Hunter
Royals vs. Tigers
Play: Over 9.5
Here we get two pitchers who are struggling badly right now. Drew Smyly started the season well, but he has a 8.53 ERA in his last three starts. Smyly hasn't had a quality start since early May. Johnathan Sanchez has been terrible this year. Sanchez has a ridiculously bad 1.99 WHIP. He has allowed 6 earned runs in 3 of his last 5 starts. Both of these offenses are fully capable of putting up a big number. The hot weather won't hurt here either. Look for a high scoring. Take the over in this one.
Ross King
San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh sports the best home record at 27-13 and as a favorite of -125 to 160 currently 9-3.Starter Bedard is 0-3 with a 7.65 e.r.a in his last 4 starts but at home he is 2-0 1.42 e.r.a in his last 3 starts.Pirates have won 8 of 9 and are sitting in first place facing Zito who has lost 3 of 4 on the road 8.84 e.r.a giving up 16 runs on 14 hits and 7 walks in only 6 innings of work.Take the first place Pirates to get your weekend started with a freeplay winner.
Black Widow
Atlanta Braves -121
The Atlanta Braves get the call Friday as a small road favorite over the struggling Philadelphia Phillies. Who would have thought the Phillies would have been "sellers" before the trade deadline, but that's essentially what they are. Philly has dropped seven of eight to fall to 37-47 on the season. The Braves have a big edge on the mound tonight with Tim Hudson over Kyle Kendrick. Hudson is 6-4 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.228 WHIP this season, including 3-1 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in five road starts. Kendrick is 2-8 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.554 WHIP on the year. The Braves are 8-1 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in road games after a win by 4 runs or more this season. The Phillies are 2-12 (-12.8 Units) against the money line after a one run loss this season. Philly is 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog. Take the Braves on the Money Line.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
San Francisco/ Pittsburgh Under 9: Google News Play. Looks like some quick money went to the Over, as this game opened at 8.5 and is now at 9. I see it the other way though. Barry Zito has struggled on the road, with a 4.23 ERA, but a lot of that damage was in his last 3 road starts vs the Angels, Milwaukee and Arizona. Two of those parks are high scoring parks, while the game vs the Angels was vs a very hot hitting LA team. Barry was very comfortable in his last 2 starts, which were at home in a big park. in those two starts he allowed just 1 ER in 13 innings of work. Pittsburgh would be considered a pitchers park this year as just 6.2 rpg have been scored in this park this year, so he should have a good outing here, plus we note that in 7 career starts vs the Pirates, Barry has not allowed more than 3 ER's in any of those starts. Erik Bedard has struggled mightily on the road but at home he has a 2.31 ERA in 7 starts, including an ERA of 1.42 in his last 3 home starts. Erik's home starts have averaged just 6.4 rpg, while 5 of Barry's 6 starts vs Pittsburgh failed to total more than 7 runs. Add it all up and we get a solid play on the Under in this one.
St. Louis/ Miami Under 9.5: I know when a couple of good offenses in this one, but I still feel that 9.5 is just too high. Ricky Nolasco has a 4.95 ERA on the road this year, but really that's the result of his last start at Boston, in which he allowed 9 ER's in 3.1 innings of work. Now let's throw that start out and we see that he hasn't allowed more than 4 ER's in any of his other 6 road starts, while compiling an ERA of 3.12 in those 6 starts. Ricky also comes in having allowed 3 ER's or less in 4 of his last 5 starts overall, so other than that Boston start he is pitching very well right, plus we note that he has faced St Louis twice in the last 2 years and has allowed just 2 ER's combined in the two starts. Jake Westbrook has been on a solid run of late, posting a 3.27 ERA in his last 5 starts. Jake does have a 4.98 ERA at home, but has allowed more than 4 ER's just once in his 8 home starts, plus in 5 career starts vs the Fish he has a 2.74 ERA, not allowing more than 3 ER's in any of those starts. The Marlins struggle offensively on the road at just 3.96 rpg and their task will be even more difficult tonight with Stanton out for the 2nd game in a row. The Cards do score 5.05 rpg at home, but the Fish allow just 4.26 rpg on the road, with their road games averaging just 8 rpg. I see a nice pitcher's duel in St Louis tonight.
New York Yankees -113 over BOSTON: Google News Play. I like the Bombers in this one. Cano is very hot right now and has had great success vs Beckett in his career. Josh is just 2-4 with a 3.69 ERA at home, while at night he has gone just 1-5 with a 4.65 ERA. He has a solid 3.43 ERA in his last 3 starts, but the Sox have put up just 1.3 rpg in those starts, so he has an 0-2 mark to show for his efforts oin his last 3 starts. The Sox do average 5.6 rpg at home, but they are off a 7 game trip, in which they scored just 14 runs total, and it will take them a game or two to get their timing back at home. Doesn't help the Sox offense that they are facing a hot Hiroki Kuroda, who has allowed 2 ER's or less in 6 of his last 7 starts, while posting an ERA of 1.65 over that stretch. Hiroki is hot and with Boston coming off a west coast trip I just don't expect their offense to do much damage vs him here. The Sox have good success at home vs lefties, but are just 10-21 in their last 31 home games vs a righty. Look for the AL East leading Yanks to move to 5-1 in their last 6 games at Fenway.
Texas/ Minnesota Over 10.5: Boy I have been waiting for Francisco Lirian to revert back to the form he was in, prior to being sent back down to the minors and he kinda did in his last start vs the Royals, in which he allowed 4 ER's in 5.1 innings of work. The Rangers did struggle offensively in their 3 games at the White Sox, but coming back home and facing a Minnesota team that has an ERA of 5.08 on the road should help jump start this offense. The Rangers score 5.6 rpg at home and the 6 games prior to the trip to Chicago they had averaged 6.5 rpg. Minnesota doesn't score well on the road (3.9 rpg), but the Rangers do allow 4.6 rpg at home. Martin perez had one start on the year and allowed just 2 ER's in 5.1 innings in that start, while he has allowed 4 ER's in just 0.2 innings out of the pen and he has a 1.83 WHIP in his 6 innings on the year. Minnesota should get their fair share of runs in this one, while an angry Rangers team should explode on Liriano. Look for 12 or 13 in this one.
GoodFella
Twins / Rangers Over 10.5
It is very hot in Texas right now, & of course that helps the ball fly/carry, but we also have Twins SP Liriano who has thrown well over 100 pitches in two straight games. That means there's little or no chance he pitches deep into this game, whether Texas scores (they will) or not. And the Twins pens has been worked hard by the Tigers already, and sports a 4.32 ERA over the last week. Texas SP Martin Perez is a 21 year old kid that also threw 100 pitches against Oakland, so it's not likely he'll last forever, either. And the Rangers' normally reliable pen has a 6.32 ERA over the last week, too. We all know what the Rangers do to left handed pitching, but the TWINS are actually tied with the Rangers for runs scored off of lefties. Bottom line here is that if either of these pitchers gets through the early innings, there are going to be plenty of opportunities late & all we need is "both to get 5 runs" & we cash this, & I simply expect that to happen here tonight, before the final out is made. I am all over the OVER tonight.
Rob Veno
Orioles / Angels Under 8.5
We’re going to look under the total here which is currently posted at 8.5. Despite the seven run outburst by Baltimore against slumping Angels RH Garrett Richards, have to figure they’ll return to their extended poor offensive production tonight. Prior to last night, the O’s had posted a .200/.287/.592 line in the last 18 contests with game batting averages of .233 or below in 15 of those.
With red-hot LA lefty C.J. Wilson on the hill (seven quality starts in his last eight outings), don’t expect Baltimore to generate much with the bats. Wilson’s 1.07 WHIP, 1.35 ERA and 1 HR allowed over this current 53 1/3 inning stretch combined with his mastery of this group of Orioles sticks (only 2 combined RBI in 52 at bats against him) adds up to a strong performance tonight.
Taking the hill for the Orioles is 28 year old, righty Miguel Gonzalez who is from nearby San Fernando and will be making a homecoming in front of friends and family. Look for Gonzalez to be pumped up for this spot start which Manager Buck Showalter will be watching closely to see what he has. Showalter has given a pitch limit of 100 so Gonzalez has an opportunity to display his repertoire which consists of fastball (92 MPH) / slider (84) / change up (80) & curve (78).
He will likely mix pitches a shade more than he has in his relief stints (fastball dominated) and LA which has never faced him, could spend the first few innings just learning his stuff.
Bullpens should be able to keep this one tight on the back end making this a game that is likely to land in the 6-8 run range. Recommendation: UNDER
Andrew Lange
Los Angeles at Arizona
Play: Los Angeles
Oddsmakers and the betting markets have spent the better part of the last month downgrading the Los Angeles Dodgers because of their much publicized offensive drought. The worst of it saw LA score 15 runs in 12 games en route to a 1-11 stretch. But since the calendar flipped to July, we've seen a tad more offense with 21 runs their last five games (4-1). Despite all that has happened, and with San Francisco currently struggling on the East Coast, the Dodgers head into today with a 1.5 game lead in the National League West. They've have a chance to extend that lead with ace Clayton Kershaw slated to take the hill. Kershaw's seasonal numbers are rock solid (2.65 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) and he not only has a strong history against Arizona (1.92 ERA in 11 starts) but a proven track record at Chase Field (2.59 ERA, 5 starts). To see him at the cheap of a price you'd think he was matched up against the 2011 version of Ian Kennedy. Instead, he faces Josh Collmenter, who was sent to the bullpen after a ton of early season struggles. He's since pitched pretty well out of the bullpen – he's ideal role – and been thrown back into the rotation because of injuries to Joe Saunders and Daniel Hudson. The Dodgers saw Collmenter three times last season as well as a relief appearance back in May – familiarity a big key with his funky motion. There is a massive discrepancy of talent and ability on the mound and I'll gladly support the former Cy Young winner at the discounted price.
Chuck O'Brien
Last night I had you on the Mets over the Phillies in a major pitching showdown between R.A. Dickey and Cole Hamels. Tonight is going to be a cakewalk compared to that 2-0 win, as I like Johan Santana to earn a little bit of revenge over the Chicago Cubs and Travis Wood.
While I know Wood has won his past three starts, hasn't given up a run in 18-2/3 innings, and hasn't given up a home run in 28-1/3 innings, but he's going to be facing a streaking Mets team that will be looking to get back at him for a June 25 meeting that saw him scatter five hits over seven scoreless innings.
Santana was on the other side of that decision, and he's going to be out to prove something tonight. The veteran southpaw actually was going to rest is surgically repaired shoulder, as the Mets considered skipping Santana's final start before the All-Star break. Santana is in after serving up eight shutout innings in L.A. and reportedly feeling strong afterward. Perhaps he's on the hill for this one cause of his domination of the Dodgers, or maybe it's because he is 3-1 lifetime with a 1.89 ERA against the Cubbies.
Mets starters have gone six or more innings in 18 of their last 19 games, and I fully expect Santana to be out for revenge to lead the Mets.
Play New York on the Run Line and be sure your pitchers of record are both Santana and Wood.
2♦ METS -1.5
Matt Rivers
Let's get down to it and make it 2 winning nights in a row.
Gave you the Dodgers +170 last night for free, now a 12-3 comp play run.
Tonight's free play winner is the Yankees-Red Sox Under the total with Kuroda and Beckett.
These teams last played in April at Fenway Park with the last meeting seeing 24 combined runs. I think the runs will be a little harder to come by tonight.
The Yankees have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the total, and starter Hiroki Kuroda comes into this start with a 2.14 ERA over his last three starts, and each of his last four starts have played Under the total.
Eight of Kuroda's last nine starts have held Under the posted price, and with the Red Sox having played just nine runs in their last five games, I think we are staring at another Under with Kuroda on the hill.
Josh Beckett definitely scares me here, as he is capable of giving up a bunch of runs to the Yankees, but I will count on this one being played close to the vest.
Yankees-Red Sox Under in the first of four from Fenway tonight.
2♦ UNDER