Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, July 9,2010

Marc Lawrence
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Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
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The Reds and Phillies meet in Game Two of this four-games series in Philadelphia this evening when Mike Leake takes the mound for Cincinnati against Joe Blanton. While Leake's numbers have fallen off since he took the league by storm this season, the fact of the matter is he is 4-2 in his road team starts, including 3-0 his last three with a 1.89 ERA. With Blanton having cashed in just three of his last eight team starts with a 6.96 ERA, look for the Reds to keep the Phillies in their funk here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cincinnati.

Cajun Sports
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Florida Marlins vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Florida Marlins
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The Florida Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks square-off in the desert for Game 2 of their four-game weekend series. At the time of this writing, we do not know the outcome of the first game of the series. The Fish will send Ricky Nolasco to the bump with his 8-6 record and ERA of 4.69 including a record of 6-2 on the highway with an ERA of 4.31. Nolasco is 4-1 versus the Diamondbacks since 97 with an ERA of 3.53 and a WHIP of 0.925. The one loss came in the desert almost to the day a year ago when he faced tonight’s starter Dan Haren, losing 8 to 0 going 6 innings giving up 9 hits with one walk and eight strikeouts in the loss. Haren went 9 innings in that game giving up 4 hits one walk and 10 strikeouts. Diamondbacks starter Haren is 7-6 this season posting an ERA of 4.38 including a mark of 5-3 at home with the same ERA. Nolasco is 16-5 in road games versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game the last three seasons including 9-1 during the second half of the season. Nolasco is 6-1 his last 7 outings when starting Game 2 of a series, 13-3 his last sixteen road starts versus a team with a losing record and 10-4 versus the NL West. We look for Ricky Nolasco to bounce back against the Diamondbacks and avenge last season’s poor performance in the desert. Back the puppy here as the Marlins take the second contest of this weekend series.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Florida Marlins 4 Arizona Diamondbacks 3

Rob Vinciletti

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets

The Mets have won 4 of 5 vs the Braves this season. The Mets are 10-3 off a day off this year and 9-4 on Friday. Atlanta is just 5-9 on the road in this range this season. Atlanta hits just .237 vs Division games. In the pitching matchup the Braves have T. Hanson on the mound and he has been hit hard over his last 3 starts with a 8.99 era. The Mets counter with knuckle baller RA. Dickey. Dickey has a 1.33 home era and has given teams fits so far this season. The Braves are in first place. However they are not a strong road teams and may struggle with Dickey and his knuckler. Look for the Mets to take game one of the series.

SEAN MURPHY

San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Washington Nationals
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The San Francisco Giants just finished a masterpiece of a series, sweeping the Milwaukee Brewers in a four-game set, outscoring them by an incredible 36-7 margin.

So does that mean they boast solid underdog value as they head to Washington on Friday? I don't believe so.
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The Nationals were soundly beaten, 7-1 at the hands of the San Diego Padres on Thursday, but that shouldn't come as any surprise. After all, they were up against one of the hottest pitchers in baseball in Mat Latos, and had already won the first two games of the series, with both coming by one-run margins.

I do expect the Nationals to get back on track behind their rookie phenom, Stephen Strasburg, on Friday night. Let's not lose sight of the fact that the Nationals remain a winning team at home this season while the Giants are a losing club on the road.
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Matt Cain will offer a formidable challenge to the Nats' lineup on Friday. He's having another fine season, recording a 2.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, but his record leaves a lot to be desired, just 6-7 on the year.

The key here is that Cain doesn't bring his best form to the table. Over his last three starts, he has allowed 22 hits and 14 earned runs in just 14 2/3 innings of work. His walk totals have been on the rise over the course of those three outings, and he's also had a tough time keeping the ball down. Note that his ground ball to fly ball ratio stands at 35:113 since the start of June.
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Cain has held the current Nationals roster to .253 hitting in 91 career at-bats against him, but I will point out that Ryan Zimmerman, Nyjer Morgan, and Cristian Guzman are a combined 14-for-39 (.359) against him.

As I mentioned, the Nats' will counter with Stephen Strasburg. He's coming off back-to-back subpar starts, but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back on Friday. It's worth noting that the Nationals still managed to win his last start, despite the fact that he lasted only five innings.
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Strasburg has settled in nicely here at Nationals Park, posting a 2.16 ERA while holding opponents to a .221 average in four starts, spanning 25 innings of work. A key against the Giants could be his .176 opponents average versus right-handed hitters.

The Nats' held their own against the Giants in San Francisco back in late May. They ultimately dropped two of three games, but the Giants needed a late rally to secure a victory in the rubber match.
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The Giants are fresh off a four-game sweep of the Brewers, but it's easy to forget that they were 5-13 over their last 18 games heading into that series. The Nationals are 11-6 in Game 1 of a series after a loss this season, and I expect them to improve on that record on Friday. Take Washington.

Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on LA Angels -110
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After getting swept in Chicago, the Angels will be happy to head back West to face a team they have owned. In fact, the Angels have won 10 of their last 14 meetings overall and 11 of the last 14 in Oakland. They also hand the ball to the right guy tonight. Pineiro has won his last 6 starts while allowing 1 or less runs in 4 of those outings. He is also a perfect 3-0 in division play this season. One of those wins came against Oakland, a complete game, 4-hit shutout. Mazzaro has won his last two starts, but plenty of pitchers have had success against Baltimore and Cleveland. The Athletics are just 2-6 in Mazzaro's last 8 home starts and only 4-12 in his last 16 starts versus a team with a winning record. The Angels are 41-15 in their last 56 road games versus a team with a losing record. Take the Halos tonight.

Jim Feist

Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Over 9½

Milwaukee is an excellent offensive park, easy for home runs, which explains why the Brewers are No. 3 in the National League in runs scored. A pair of slumping starters square off in this one. Lefty Paul Maholm has a 9.75 ERA his last three starts, while Doug Davis is 1-4 with a 7.56 ERA on the season. Davis walks too many batters (18 in 33 innings), while Maholm allows opponents to hit .297 of him, so look for plenty of offense. Play the Pirates/Brewers Over the total.

Tom Freese
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New York at Seattle
Play: Seattle
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Seattle starter Cliff Lee has won his 4 starts allowing just 6 runs in those 4 starts. Lee has 2 walks and 22 strikeouts in his last 3 starts. The Mariners are 8-1 with Lee his last 9 starts as a favorite. Lee is 6-1 vs. a team with a winning record and he is 4-0 his last 4 home starts. New York starter Phillip Hughes has allowed 20 runs in his last 34 starts. The Yankees are 2-5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their last game. New York is 1-4 with Hughes as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and they are 1-4 with Hughes vs. a team with a losing record.

EZWINNERS

Boston Red Sox -130

The Blue Jays starting pitcher Ricky Romero got off to a great start this season, but I don't like the way he is pitching right now. Romero is 0-2 in his last three starts and has an ERA of 5.09 in that span. Romero is also coming off of his worst start of the season and his confidence has to be the lowest it has been all season. Romero roughed up in New York on Sunday as he lasted just 2 2/3 innings and allowed eight runs in an 11 run third inning for the Yankees. Today he faces a Red Sox lineup that he has struggled against in the past. In five career starts against Boston, Romero is only 1-3 with an ERA of 7.66 and I can see him taking another beating here. The Red Sox send All Star Jon Lester to the mound for this game. Lester is 10-3 this season with an ERA of 2.76 and over his last three starts Lesters ERA is only 1.23. Lester has already pitched seven innings of one hit ball against the Blue Jays this season and I expect another solid performance from him in this game. The Red Sox have won six straight games in Toronto and I expect that to continue. Play on Boston.

Rocketman

Florida @ Arizona
Play: Florida

Florida is now 40-45 overall this year while Arizona comes in with a 33-53 overall record on the season. Florida is 54-34 the past 3 years on the road when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Arizona is 7-20 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. Arizona is 77-105 the past 3 years after a win. Arizona has lost 5 of their last 6 games overall. Arizona bullpen has a 6.84 ERA overall this year and a 6.45 ERA at home this season. Ricky Nolasco is 6-2 on the road this year and 3-0 his last 3 starts. Nolasco is 4-1 overall vs Arizona since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Florida tonight!

Karl Garrett

No knock on Jon Lester, as Lester has been "bringing it" all year long for his club, the problem is his club is contending with far too many injuries right now, and they come to Toronto riding a 4-game losing streak.

Toronto just took the last pair off of visiting Minnesota, and they will now look to get their first home win in 4 tries this year against the Boston Red Sox tonight.

Ricky Romero was just rocked, but that start came on the road. At home Romero has been stellar, going 4-1 over 7 home starts, and keeping his ERA at just 1.45.

With so many of the Boston starters sidelined, the G-Man will take his chances with the home underdog to give his team a chance against the 10-3 Lester.

Take Toronto.

2♦ TORONTO

Bobby Maxwell

I'm coming strong with a FREE winner tonight on the Blue Jays at home to get it done against the Red Sox in Toronto.

Toronto got the home win on Thursday over the Twins and they are a great plus-money wager in this one as they welcome the Red Sox to Canada for a three-game set. Ricky Romero (6-5, 3.39 ERA) is on the mound for the Blue Jays, battling the Red Sox Jon Lester (10-3, 2.76 ERA).

Romero loves pitching at home, posting a 4-1 record and an amazing 1.45 ERA. He last pitched at home on June 23 when he blanked the Cardinals for eight innings. He’s held the opposition to two runs or less in seven of his last 10 outings and last time he saw the Red Sox was last September when he allowed two runs in five innings of an 8-7 road win.

Lester has been very good for the Red Sox this season, but he’s blown up a few times on the road the last few months, getting shelled in Cleveland and in Detroit.

Boston is just 3-8 in its last 11 roadies, 0-4 against A.L. East teams, 1-4 against southpaws and 2-5 when Lester is a road favorite. Toronto has won four of Romero’s last five home starts and 8-3 in their last 11 Friday games.

The Red Sox have won six straight in Toronto and eight of the last 10, but this Toronto team is scoring runs and they’ll get the job done here tonight. Play the plus-money and go with the Blue Jays.

4♦ TORONTO

BRETT ATKINS

I scored the free winner for you on Thursday as the Blue Jays took care of the Twins in Toronto. Tonight I am playing the Mets to get Game 1 of their series against the Braves in New York.

New York is the winning play here tonight as R.A. Dickey has been a helluva pitcher for them this season. Since joining the starting lineup, he’s held the opposition to three runs or less in seven of his nine starts.

In his last home outing, Dickey blanked the Tigers on four hits over eight innings of a 5-0 win. He also didn’t give up an earned run on Saturday in Washington and got a no-decision in the 6-5 loss.

Tommy Hanson starts for the Braves and he’s got a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts. In his last roadie, Hanson gave up nine runs on 13 hits of a 9-6 loss to the White Sox, lasting just 3.2 innings.

New York has been rolling lately, on streaks of 25-9 at home, 8-1 after an off-day, 5-0 on Friday and 13-3 after a loss. I’m playing the Mets tonight to get it done with Dickey on the mound.

3♦ N.Y. METS

JOEL TYSON

The hype surrounding Stephen Strasburg has cooled just a little, as Strasburg can't seem to get any support on offense, and it is only a matter of time before the opposing team gets to the Nats bullpen.

In to town rolls the Giants who have won 4 in a row, and 5 of their last 6.

Matt Cain is definitely capable of working deep into a game, and the Giants 13-3 mark against the Nationals their last 16 meetings definitely bodes well.

Cain is also 3-0 the last 4 times he has faced Washington.

Take the Giants here.

1♦ SAN FRANCISCO

INSIDER ANGLES

Now we realize that the Arizona Diamondbacks have the best Over record in the Major Leagues, but that is primarily due to their terrible bullpen, which may not be a factor on Friday night. Meanwhile, Ricky Nolasco of the Florida Marlins appears poised to make another second half surge just like last season.

The reason the Arizona pen may catch a break here is because Dan Haren is making this start, and he has gone at least seven innings in four of his last five starts, with all four of those elongated outings being Quality Starts. In fact, Haren has allowed three earned runs or less in six of his last seven outings, so it appears he has straightened himself out after an uncharacteristically slow start to this season.

Keep in mind also that Haren has been brilliant in his last two starts vs. Florida, not allowing a single earned run while allowing only nine hits and recording 17 strikeouts against only three walks in 16 innings of work. This includes a Complete Game four-hit shutout vs. the Fish last year.

As for Nolasco, remember that he turned into the Florida ace over the second half of last season, and this year is shaping up to be a carbon copy. Like Haren, Nolasco also got off to a slow start, but he has now won each of his last three starts while allowing a scant 20 baserunners in 21 innings.

Going back further, Nolasco has allowed three earned runs or less in six of his last eight starts, and his last start vs. the Braves may have been his best yet, as he allowed two runs on six hits in seven innings with 11 strikeouts.

In short, these are two quality starters that appear to be at their season’s peak right now, and the end result should be a low scoring affair.

Pick: Marlins/Diamondbacks Under 9