VEGAS EXPERTS
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Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
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Play on the LA Angels - Athletics hosts the Los Angeles Angels for the first game of their series in Oakland at 10:05 PM ET. Both Teams got swept in their last series. The Angels lost four straight to the Chicago White Sox and the Athletics lost three straight to the New York Yankee’s. With a team start record of 11-6, Pineiro, who is on the mound for the Angels has been having an excellent season. He has been pitching excellent with five straight wins and a 1.77 ERA in his last three starts. On the other side of the matchup, Mazzaro starts for Oakland tonight. He has a team start record of 4-3, and has a 4.20 ERA when playing at home. Jump on the Angels if you’re looking to cash in on an easy winner!
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Play on: Los Angeles Angels
Hollywood Sports
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Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
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Atlanta sends out Tommy Hanson who is 8-5 with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP for the season. But Hanson loves pitching against the Braves' NL East rival as he has produced 12 scoreless innings of work with a 1.08 WHIP while holding Mets' batters to just a .186 batting average. And with Hanson on the mound facing a team with a winning record, the Braves have won 7 of their last 8 games. New York counters with R.A. Dickey who has a strong 6-1 record backed by a 2.62 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. However, the Braves chew up right-handed pitchers as they have won 28 of their last 39 against right-handers.
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On a deeper level, one of the reasons that we have confidence in Hanson is a sabermetric statistic that suggests he has rather unlucky this season: Batting Average for ground balls Put Into Play (GB BABIP) The baseline BABIP sabermetric is determined by this formula: (Hits - Homeruns)/(At-bats - Homeruns - strikeouts + sacrifice flies). The assumption behind the application of this sabermetric is that while pitchers control their strikeouts, walks and HRs allowed, it is defense and luck (and, we argue the skill of the batter when it comes to producing line-drives) that control what happens to the balls that hitters put into play. We look specifically at ground-ball BABIPs because defense and luck play the predominant role in which balls get through the infield. By comparing a pitcher's specific GB BABIP to his team's overall GB BABIP, we seek to neutralize the quality of the defense to identify (luck) discrepancies that deviate from the expected norm. This luck dynamic helps us to predict future pitching performances. Over the long run, pitchers with low GB BABIPs are expected to have this number rise while pitchers with high GB BABIPs are expected to see this number lower. Hanson has a GB BABIP of .343 -- as compared to the Braves' team GB BABIP of .222. This suggests that Hanson has been very unlucky regarding where the groundballs he is allowing in play are actually going. As his GB BABIP moves down towards the Braves' team mean, he should see even better results. On the flip side, Dickey sports a GB BABIP of .229 which is a bit lower than the Mets' .250 GB BABIP team average. This is evidence that Dickey has been somewhat fortunate regarding where his groundballs are going and that he should expect this number to grow towards his teams overall average -- meaning he should see more baserunners very soon. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starters Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like GB BABIP, we get a better sense as to why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective regarding evaluating this pitcher's future.
Craig Trapp
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
Two teams headed in opposite direction as we head into the all star break. The Cubs are looking forward to the vacation as they really don't like each other and it has shown. The Dodgers on the other hand are trying to overtake SD and the 7-3 run has helped. Today the Dodgers turn to their most reliable pitcher Billingsley. He has not received many victories but has been consistent averaging 6 innings and about 2.5 runs. That will be plenty as the LAD lineup has been hitting very well. Lily goes for Cubs and his 2-4 record in L10 starts with 4.02 ERA has not been good enough lately. In fact he gets the worst run support of any starter this year. Sounds like easy LAD winner as the Dodgers continue their hot hitting.
JR O'Donnell
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BOS (-120) vs TOR
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The Red sox nation is a banged up and dangerous crew here gang but they have enough in the tank to beat the Jays R Romero 1-3 with a 7.66 ERA as of late. He has been pounded by the Red Sox. We note that Red sox J. Lester is awesome 10-1 with a 1.84 ERA.." ROCK SOLID IS HOW YOU WOULD DESCRIBE LESTER AND THE SOX TONIGHT"!
SPORTS WAGERS
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Florida/ARIZONA under 9
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The D-Backs and Marlins rank 1st and 2nd, respectively, in strikeouts in the NL, and with two power pitchers on the mound, there’s likely going to be a lot of whiffs in this game. That’s always good for the under. Don’t even think about Haren’s 4.38 ERA. Rather, concentrate on the differential between his ERA and his xERA (3.48) and feel confident that a positive correction is coming. Fact is, Haren's control, domination and BPV (137) are Elite with a capital "E". The fly in the ointment? Haren is giving up bombs at an unprecedented rate (1.6 HR/9). You can bet that corrects itself as well. Then there’s Ricky Nolasco, who is similar to Haren in that his ERA is higher than it should be. Nolasco’s ERA over his lat five starts (4.91) is a complete illusion, as his xERA is 2.38. Nolasco has been pummeled by an unfavorable hit percentage and strand percentage. Like Haren, he, too, has pinpoint control, as evidenced by his 19 walks in 103.2 innings. Bottom line is that the surface stats don’t reflect this elite-pitching match-up and therefore we get a very beatable number to go under against. Play: Florida/Arizona under 9 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
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HOUSTON +1.85 over St. Louis
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What we have here is the majors most overvalued team, the Cards, playing the majors most undervalued team, the Astros and the result is an inflated line. Hopefully, the Cards will be favored in all three games so that we can all get some great value over this weekend. Even with such a horrible record, the Astros have won four of six from the Cardinals this season, all at Busch Stadium, and swept St. Louis during a three-game set May 11-13. Bud Norris (75 BPV, 5-0-2-3-4 PQS) has made encouraging back-to-back starts since returning from a DL stint for right biceps tendinitis. Norris has faced the Cardinals twice this season, compiling a 0.69 ERA and 182 BPV (see the bottom of this page for an explanation of BPV and PQS). Adam Wainwright is an elite pitcher. He’s been incredibly consistent with his skills this season (despite a recent rough start against Toronto), posting month-by-month BPV scores of 103, 143 and 110. He can dominate, anytime, anywhere and certainly do that here. However, this isn’t about playing against Wainwright at all. It’s about taking back +1.85 on the Astros against a team they can beat and that is way overpriced. Incidentally, the Cards have lost three, six of eight and its pen is in bad shape after a three-game set in Colorado while the Astros have won three straight and its pen is in good shape after playing the feeble Pirates. Play: Houston +1.85 (Risking 2 units).
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Baltimore +2.15 over TEXAS
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We’re going to split this up and play the Orioles in the first five and the full game because of an O’s bullpen that cannot be trusted, especially at this park. Anyway, what is true is that Scott Feldman should not be better than a 2-1 favorite over anyone. Feldman is about as ordinary as they come and even that’s a stretch. He’s won five games all year for a team that’s won 50 games and it’s not because he doesn’t get run support. The Rangers are just 8-9 in games that’s he’s started, so he’s personally lost 25% of all the Rangers losses this year. Feldman is 0-2 in his last three starts with an ERA of 7.13. In three recent games vs Houston, Pittsburgh and Seattle, arguably the three worst offenses in baseball, Feldman lasted a combined 18.2 innings and allowed 30 hits for a BAA of .427. On May 20 he faced the O’s and they, too, hit him hard to the tune of 12 hits in six innings. Brian Matusz has made some great strides over his last seven starts. He’s coming off a two-hit, seven inning gem against the Red Sox. In fact, Matusz has allowed three runs or less in six of his last seven starts and right across the board his numbers are better than Feldman’s. Since June 1, Matusz has seen his ERA dip 1.20 runs and that’s a damn good sign. The Orioles are playing much better ball these days too. They’re scoring runs and they should have won three of its last five after blowing a late four-run lead against the Tigers on Tuesday. They beat the Rangers here last night and with a tag like this against Feldman, they’re definitely worth a shot tonight. Play: Baltimore +2.00 in the first five innings (Risking 1 unit). Play: Baltimore +2.15 (Risking 1 unit)
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WINNIPEG –11½ over Toronto
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Frankly, the only encouraging thing for the Argos in week one was they lost by only 14 points. Yeah, the Stamps were very lucky to cover but in the same sense, all the Argos points were rather lucky too. Statistically, the game was as one-sided as they come, as the Stamps recorded 28 first downs to the Argos 11 and outgained them 500 to 246. However, the most alarming stat was time of possession, as Calgary held the ball over 42 minutes while the Argos held it under 18. That’s incredible and so is the fact that the Argos, based on the stats and time of possession, didn’t lose by five TD’s. Offensively, the Argos offer up nothing, as Cleo Lemon was awful in his CFL debut and he just doesn’t have the receivers to help him nor does he have an O-line to protect him. The Blue Bombers defense did a solid job on the dangerous Ticats last week and allowed just 291 total yards of offense. They also scored 49 points in that game and will take a huge, huge step down in class here when facing this feeble and untalented intruder. You can never base your picks on one week of action but this is an exception because the Argos really are that bad. Last week’s 14-point loss was an extremely flattering score for the Argos and unless the Bombers lay a big-time egg, the Argos are primed to get ripped apart both on the field and on the scoreboard. Play: Winnipeg –11½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Florida Marlins +125
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The D-backs continue to be overvalued with Haren on the hill. Haren has not been as sharp as we are used to seeing him this season. And when he has been sharp, he hasn't received much run support. Arizona has lost his last 4 starts and 8 of his last 11. Meanwhile, the Fish have won Nolasco's last 3 starts and 7 of his 10 road starts this season. The Marlins are an impressive 13-3 in Nolasco's last 16 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Snakes got the sticks going last night, but it's doubtful they will again this evening when you consider that Florida is 9-2 the last 2 seasons when revenging a loss where its opponent scored 10 or more runs, winning in this spot by an average score of 5.0 to 3.6. Take the Marlins.
Tony George
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Angels vs. Athletics
Play: Under 8
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Two hot pitchers and equally impressive bullpens going after it tonight. I cannot bank on the Angels in ANY capcity after their performance at the White Sox where they managed 6 runs in 4 games and lost them all, but I can assume their bats will remain silent in this one again in a 2-1 or 3-2 type ballgame. I fully expect this to be a tight one with both starters looking at 6 innings each or more and two solid bullpens in excellent form under a 3 ERA each their last 10 games combined. Smells like a low scoring game to me!
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Florida Marlins +131
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I know Florida was pounded last night, but it is showing some nice value in this bounce back spot, especially when you consider that it has won 9 of its last 11 when looking to avenge a loss where its opponent scored 10 runs or more. The D-backs have fallen in each of Haren's last 4 starts, but the Marlins have won in each of Nolasco's last 3 outings. Florida has won 7 of Nolasco's 10 road starts this season, and I'll get behind him on the road at a nice underdog price tonight.
Info Plays
3* on St. Louis Cardinals -167
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Reasons the Cardinals win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (HOUSTON) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. This is a 65-7 ML System hitting 90.3% over the last 5 seasons.
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2.) Adam Wainwright. The righty is 12-5 with a 2.24 ERA this season. Wainwright is 8-1 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts vs. Houston. After getting swept by the Rockies, we'll take the Cardinals to get back in the win column tonight. Bet St. Louis on the road.
Wunderdog
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Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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The Sox have eleven players on the DL including Pedrois, Ellsbury, Martinez and Varitek. Who would have thought Darnell McDonald, Daniel Nava and Kevin Cash would be seeing regular playing time for Boston? The result is not unexpected as the Sox have lost four in a row including an embarrassing home loss to the Orioles. Jon Lester gives them some hope tonight as he is 10-3 with a 2.76 ERA. But, Toronto starts Ricky Romero who has been no slouch. At home he is 4-1 with a 1.45 ERA. And, Boston's bullpen has been horrendous on the road this season (4-9 with a 5.85 ERA with just 56% saves). The Red Sox have not fared well in division games this year where they are under .500. I like the Blue Jays at home here.
Sac Lawson
SFG (+140) vs WAS
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Matt Cain is 4-0 with a 1.62 ERA over his last 5 starts against Washington. To me, that's huge. Cain is, no doubt, one of the most underrated pitchers in the game today, mainly because he doesn't get the type of run support to grab victories with much consistency. But his team is just about as hot with their bats as they've been all season coming off a 4-game sweep of the Brewers, and even though there's an intimidating fella on the mound of their opposition, you've simply gotta take a hard look at a hot hitting team with a stud on the mound (Giants).
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Strasburg has definitely been impressive at times, but the Nats office is being very very timid with him. And for that reason I really don't expect him to see more than 6 or 7 innings. My goal, in breaking this game down, was to try and justify a tie ball game heading into the Nationals' Bullpen. With how hot this Giants team is, I really feel like they can take advantage of the Washington pen. And quite frankly, with Cain's success against Washington, and Strasburg showing vulnerability to the tune of 1-3 runs per game, I think this is a fantastic spot to roll with the hot team and ignore the hype of a big name.
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Great price on a starter that is not going to be outdone by the young buck, especially with a team that is hot as hell behind him. Take the Giants!
SDP (+154) vs COL
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Oh yeah, this is a big number, love it. Jorge De La Rosa gets his first start off the DL for the Rockies this evening, and in my estimation it won't be a pretty one. De La Rosa is one of the streakiest pitchers in the game today, we've seen him time and time again go a month without giving up more than 5 total runs. And on other occasions we've seen him give up 5 runs in 5 straight games. That's simply the way he is at this point in his career. Today, I have sound reason to believe he'll be less than sharp. Don't get me wrong, I have little doubt that he's healthy. But I saw him pitch 5 days ago against Salt Lake City (Angels affiliate). In that game he gave up 7 extra base hits, 8 runs, and go less than 5 innings. Keep in mind, the lineup that Salt Lake is throwing on the field right now, due to injuries with the big club, is one that doesn't have anyone who has seen the Majors this season. De La Rosa was completely shelled by lesser competition. I'm going to bank on the carry over affect, and expect to see a lack of confidence from De La Rosa this evening, and expect the Padres to have decent success off him.
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On the other side, Correia definitely has terrible history against the Rockies, but in my estimation, it's sort of an anomaly. Correia's strength is a two seam fastball that breaks off the plate against lefties, and that's why he's statistically much more effective against left-handed hitters (even being a righty himself). Colorado brings all lefties to the plate on most evenings, meaning that guys like Barmes and Olivo are really the only right handed threats that Correia has to deal with. It just so happens that those guys have hit him very hard in the past, and he's also had some command issues in the prior matchups against the Rockies. If his command is on, I definitely see him as a guy that can be very effective against a left-handed lineup like the Rockies.
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The bullpens are pretty even here, I'm basically banking on Correia to show his true colors and give the lefties a hard time tonight, while I expect De La Rosa to show some of that same rust I witnessed against Salt Lake last week. Take the Padres at this unjustified price!
Jack Jones
Cardinals/Astros UNDER 7.5
I'm taking the UNDER in this NL Central clash tonight between the Cardinals and Astros. The reason is simple. Both Adam Wainwright and Bud Norris have dominated their respective opponents throughout their careers. Wainwright is 12-5 with a 2.24 ERA this season, with one of those wins coming against Houston on April 12th where he pitched 8 shutout innings in a 5-0 victory. That win improved Wainwright to 8-1 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in 10 career starts vs. Houston.
Bud Norris is not an elite starter, but the Cardinals cannot figure him out. Norris is 4-0 with a 0.35 ERA and 1.038 WHIP in 4 career starts vs. St. Louis dating back to last season. During those 4 starts, Norris has surrendered just 1 earned run and 27 base runners in 26 innings while striking out 25 batters. The UNDER is 7-3 in Wainwright's 10 starts vs. Houston, while the UNDER is 4-0 in Norris' 4 starts vs. the Cardinals. The UNDER is 26-10-1 in the last 37 meetings in this series overall. Roll with the UNDER Friday.
Chuck O'Brien
Easy to understand why St. Louis is such a big favorite today: It’s because Adam Wainwright is taking the ball for the Redbirds, and Wainwright (12-5, 2.24 ERA) has been outstanding this year. However, he’s been anything but a sure bet when pitching on the road (the Cards are 3-6 in his nine road starts, compared with 9-0 when he starts at Busch Stadium).St. Louis is also struggling in a big way right now. They just got swept in a three-game series in Colorado, blowing huge leads in two of those games as their bullpen took a massive beating at Coors Field. In addition to getting swept by the Rockies, the Cardinals are 2-6 in their last eight overall and 4-11 in their last 15 road games.
What’s more, St. Louis lost seven of its nine games in Houston last year, and after taking the first two from the Astros this season at home, they lost the last four in a row. Houston right-hander Bud Norris was on the mound for two of those four wins, giving up just two runs (one earned) in 13 innings. And down the stretch last year, Norris beat the Cardinals twice, scattering eight hits and six walks over 13 innings. That makes Norris 4-0 with a 0.35 ERA in four starts against the Cardinals since last August. Versus the rest of the league, Norris is 4-9 with a 6.94 ERA in 17 starts.St. Louis’ three best hitters – Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Colby Rasmus – are a combined 5-for-32 against Norris with just one RBI.
2♦ HOUSTON ASTROS
Chris Jordan
Though I’m not listing the pitchers in this game, I will bring up some very important notes about both Bud Norris and Adam Wainwright in this analysis.
Let’s start with the main reason I like this game: the Astros have won three in a row and have the chance to win No. 4 in a row inside Minute Maid Park, where they’re on a 7-2 run against the Cardinals. And get this, the Astros have already won four of six from the Redbirds this season - all at Busch Stadium – while they swept St. Louis during a three-game set back on May 11-13.And given this is one of the most hated rivalries in major league baseball, one not too many know about, I’m thinking the Astros are going to be ready to take it to their National League Central adversary. They’ll surely be pumped up after ace Roy Oswalt fired a one-hitter in yesterday’s 2-0 matinee shutout of the Pirates, helping Houston complete the sweep.Now, about the pitchers scheduled to make the start …
Norris is 4-0 with a 0.35 ERA in four starts versus St. Louis, including a pair of outings this season at Busch, where he gave up just one earned run over 13 innings of work. As for Wainwright, he is 3-5 on the road this season, so his 12 wins don’t necessarily scare me tonight. Not when we’re talking about a rivalry like this.
And don’t forget the Cardinals are in after a series in the Mile High City, and now come to an awfully humid town for a weekend series. Nah, this one goes to the Astros!
3♦ HOUSTON
Bobby Maxwell
I'm coming strong with a FREE winner tonight on the Blue Jays at home to get it done against the Red Sox in Toronto.
Toronto got the home win on Thursday over the Twins and they are a great plus-money wager in this one as they welcome the Red Sox to Canada for a three-game set. Ricky Romero (6-5, 3.39 ERA) is on the mound for the Blue Jays, battling the Red Sox Jon Lester (10-3, 2.76 ERA). Romero loves pitching at home, posting a 4-1 record and an amazing 1.45 ERA. He last pitched at home on June 23 when he blanked the Cardinals for eight innings. He’s held the opposition to two runs or less in seven of his last 10 outings and last time he saw the Red Sox was last September when he allowed two runs in five innings of an 8-7 road win. Lester has been very good for the Red Sox this season, but he’s blown up a few times on the road the last few months, getting shelled in Cleveland and in Detroit.
Boston is just 3-8 in its last 11 roadies, 0-4 against A.L. East teams, 1-4 against southpaws and 2-5 when Lester is a road favorite. Toronto has won four of Romero’s last five home starts and 8-3 in their last 11 Friday games. The Red Sox have won six straight in Toronto and eight of the last 10, but this Toronto team is scoring runs and they’ll get the job done here tonight. Play the plus-money and go with the Blue Jays.
4♦ TORONTO