Stephen Nover
I am 37-22-1 on my last 60 free selections. On the Friday card, I'm going to take Cliff Lee and Seattle against the New York Yankees and Philip Hughes.
This is being billed as a battle aces - but Lee is the only real ace in this matchup. Lee is in brilliant form. In his last eight starts, Lee has allowed one earned or less four times. In the other four outings, he's given up three earned runs or less. He's gone at least eight innings, too, in all but one of his last nine starts.
Lee's 89-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio is absolutely phenomenal. Seattle is 8-1 the last nine times Lee has been favored.
Hughes hit his stride early, but he's been in decline. Hughes' 10-2 record looks impressive, but the numbers haven't been there lately. Back on May 5, Hughes was 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA. Since then, however, his ERA is close to 6.00 during nine starts.
In his past four starts, Hughes has yielded 28 hits with 18 strikeouts. He has surrendered at least five earned runs in three of his last four starts.
3♦ SEATTLE
JEFF BENTON
Poor Dan Haren cannot catch a break this season. The Arizona right-hander had an awful first two months of the season, and though he’s been much better since June 1, he’s hardly got anything to show for it. Case in point: Over his last four starts, Haren has a 3.58 ERA, but the DBacks are 0-4 thanks in large part to their historically horrendous bullpen.In fact, over his last four starts Haren surrendered 15 runs (11 earned) in 27 2/3 innings (he’s gone 7, 8 and 7 frames in his last three contests); however, the DBacks’ relievers gave up 11 runs in 7 1/3 innings.Opposing Haren tonight is hard-throwing right-hander Ricky Nolasco, who is really coming on strong, going 3-0 with a 3.86 ERA in his last three starts, notching, 28 strikeouts against just two walks in 21 innings (7 innings in each game). Nolasco is 5-2 on the road this season and Florida is 8-3 in his last 11 outings on the highway, and that includes Sunday’s 3-2 victory in Atlanta where Nolasco outdueled Braves All-Star Tim Hudson.Almost exactly one year ago, Haren dominated Nolasco in an 8-0 win in Arizona (Haren went the distance; Nolasco gave up seven runs in six innings). However, prior to that, the Marlins had gone 3-0 in three shots at Haren, while Nolasco gave up just seven runs in 29 2/3 innings (2.12 ERA) in four starts against the DBacks (Florida won all four of those games).Throw in the fact that Arizona is in a major funk – it has lost five of six (all at home), seven of 10 and 15 of 22 – and I’ll happily take the plus price with Florida (which has won 13 of Nolasco’s last 16 starts on the road against losing teams).
3♦ FLORIDA MARLINS
SCOTT DELAYNEY
Undoubtedly a disappointing outcome last night, as the Rangers blew my 50 Dimer by blowing a 4-0 lead and allowing the Orioles to come back and win 6-4. Tonight the revenge factor will be in play, as I expect the Rangers to push the pedal to the metal and never let up, the way they should have played last night, rather than getting complacent. I’m not getting fooled twice, so this is why you see it as my free play.Let’s list both hurlers, as Scotty Feldman is 4-0 in his last four starts against Baltimore. He’s allowed just nine earned runs over 24 innings in those games, and should be able to keep the Orioles’ futile bats at bay.On the flipside, the Rangers should provide plenty of run support against Brian Matusz, who was blasted by this lineup for seven earned runs over two innings back on May 20. The southpaw is 3-4 with a 4.41 ERA on the highway this season, so I believe he’ll struggle once again.
Lay the run line.
2♦ TEXAS
Larry Ness
WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
PICK: WASHINGTON NATIONALS
The Giants 'limped' into Miller Park at the beginning of the week having lost 10 of 12 to fall back to fourth-place in the NL West behind the Dodgers and Rockies and drop 7 1/2 games back of the first-place Padres. However, the Brewers were "just what the doctor ordered" for the Giants who swept the four-game series in Milwaukee. After winning the first two games by 6-1 scores, the Giants had 18 hits on Wednesday (the 15-2 win marked their highest-scoring game since May of 2007) and 16 hits in Thursday's 9-3 win. However, they now face Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals. Strasburg won his first two ML starts (2.19 ERA), striking out 22 batters in 12.1 innings. However, despite a 2.59 ERA and 31 Ks (24.1 IP) over his last four starts, he's winless (he's 0-2 and the team 1-3). His run-support has been non-existent, although the Nats did come back to gain a 6-5 win in his last outing, AFTER Strasburg had left the game. Strasburg's mound opponent tonight, Matt Cain, knows all to well about lack of support. He owns a 2.98 ERA this season while allowing only 98 hits over 114.2 innings but is just 6-7 (team is 7-10 in his starts). Cain is winless in his last four outings (he's 0-3 and the team 0-4) and he's starting to struggle (6.85 ERA). Cain is 4-0 with a 1.62 ERA in his last five starts against Washington but he's not pitching very well right now and despite San Francisco's dominance in Milwaukee, I expect Strasburg to lead the Nats to a win tonight.
DEREK MANCINI
Boston has lost 4 in a row, including getting swept in Tampa, and now there's a lot of talk about injuries catching up to them, and yada, yada, yada. Let's not get too carried away, as the Sox still have plenty in the tank, and one of their best on the mound tonight.
If there's any reason to doubt the Red Sox, it shouldn't come with Jon Lester (10-3, 2.76 ERA) on the hill. He's been outstanding over his L3 starts, going 2-1 with a 1.23 ERA (WHIP of 0.86). The last time he saw Toronto, he dominated them in this same park, allowing 1 hit over 7 scoreless with 11 strikeouts April 28th.
Can't say I have the same confidence in Rick Romero (6-5, 3.39 ERA) after a disastrous start at the Yankees in his last one, getting knocked around for 8 runs in 2 2/3 innings! He's also 1-3 with a 7.66 ERA in 5 career starts against the Red Sox.Boston may be dealing with injuries, but they still hit lefties well, averaging 5.8 runs per game against them. Toronto meanwhile, has been awful vs southpaws all year, averaging just 3 runs per game in that spot. Blue Jays do have the edge in the bullpen, but with Lester on the mound, it might very well not make a difference. Lay it with the Red Sox (Lester) over the Blue Jays (Romero) Friday.
3♦ BOSTON RED SOX
JAY MCNEIL
Though Ricky Romero has been nearly unstoppable at home this season, I have to play Boston with Jon Lester tonight, as he comes in after a pair of stifling performances against the lowly Orioles and Giants, allowing just two earned runs over about 16 innings of work. On top of that, he’s been solid on the road, with a 4-2 mark and 2.75 ERA. He’s undoubtedly he perfect pitcher to ask to stop the bleeding, as he’s dominated the Jays, going 4-1 in his last five starts against them, having given up just six earned runs for an ERA of 1.58. And the last four starts against them have been inside Rogers Centre, north of the border.
He’s going to be fired up for this one, too, as he comes in fresh off making the All-Star team for the first time and deservedly so, as he is 10-3 with a 2.76 ERA this season. He is 10-1 with a 1.84 ERA over his last 14 starts.I know how hard Toronto is pounding the ball, but my money is on the Sox tonight.
2♦ BOSTON
Scott Spreitzer
Yankees at Mariners
The Yankees have had a great road trip and got another win last night. Here they are laying a cheap price with hard throwing Phil Hughes on the hill. That’s because Seattle has their ace in Cliff Lee, but Lee has the worst offense in the AL working for him. Safeco is a large, pitcher friendly park, which partly explains why the Mariners offense is so bad. Look for a defensive battle, like last night, and play the Yankees/Mariners Under the total.
O.C. Dooley
Indians +190
One of the best ways of connecting with a baseball underdog is to have a pitcher who has the ability to keep his team in the game until the late innings when anything can happen. Not only has Fausto Carmona had 13 different QUALITY starts for Cleveland this season, he has induced 17 different double-plays which leads all of baseball. Of course the big story in sports right now centers on LeBron James who has bolted the city of Cleveland like many other athletes and even franchises. But it was not all that long ago (2001) when the Indians were setting a baseball record for consecutive home sellouts and were an annual playoff contender. In this decade the Tribe have sent many a stellar player packing at the trade deadline with the most famous being C.C. Sabathia who is now anchoring the Yankees rotation. The main prospect that the Indians received in that deal was Matt LaPorta who has not played since getting kneed in the head back on Monday. To make a long story short just last week the Tribe made room on the roster for LaPorta to be an everyday player and he responded by swatting homeruns in 3 consecutive contests. Just when LaPorta was finally gaining confidence at the major league level he suffered that injury on Monday, but by all indications he should RETURN to the starting lineup tonight which will bolster the entire attack. Of course the price tag for this evening’s game is excessive since Tampa Bay has reeled off 6 consecutive triumphs vaulting them to the #2 slot in the ultra-competitive American League East division. But the fact of the matter is that the Rays are in a classic “emotional letdown” spot as they just wrapped up a six-game stretch against pennant contenders Boston and Minnesota. Ever since Joe Maddon has been manager Tampa Bay has struggled (11-24) in this series where Cleveland has given them plenty of headaches. The following statistic may come as a shock but the lowly Indians currently lead the entire American League garnering at least one “extra base hit” in 34 consecutive contests. From the database I see that Tampa Bay is on a stunning 2-10 slide when taking the field on a FRIDAY. Check all calendars