Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 11,2010

ANDRE GOMES

Mexico @ South Africa

I believe that we have some value with Mexico DNB/PK in this contest as basically we can get the chance to bet in the better team with decent odds. I’m aware that there are many historical trends favoring the host team to not lose in their first game, for once I can say that Host nations have never lost an opener and have reached at least the second round of each World Cup, with six winning it. Also in the last three tournaments, the hosts have gone 10-0-2 in the group stage!

History can gave us great things however please let’s not forget that South Africa is the lowest-ranked team in the tournament and the lowest-ranked hosts in the history of the World Cup so the overall quality of the team (or the lack of it) it’s even more important than any historical trend.

The Mexicans are one of the most technical teams present in the WC as they love to keep possession of the ball. The key for their system is the movement from almost every player on the pitch and plenty of width when attacking. They made some friendly games against top notch teams like England, Netherlands and Italy and in all of those games the Mexicans showed an interesting ball movement and they created plenty of chances to score even though they failed to score if we look for their opportunities. In order to enable such offensive strategy the opponent must be patient and play a conservative game and that’s exactly what I don’t expect from South Africa in this contest.

South Africa has a lot of pressure to perform and win in front of their public and I just can’t see them to have the tactical patient to watch the Mexicans exchanging the ball in the midfield so they will try to attack the ball and obviously this will open some gaps in the back.

I understand that they are in a 12-game winning streak but most of the opponents that they faced weren’t talented teams and despite defeating recently Denmark 1-0 I remember that Denmark was without both Bendtner and Sørensen in that game and also the Danish team was still trying to adapt to the South African soil when they meet.

Mexico had two full months to prepare for the tournament (for example almost all the other teams had less time) so they will be full prepared for this contest. I’ve also read some comments about the altitude being a friendly factor for South Africa but I remember that Mexico usually plays in high altitude as well back home at the Azteca stadium so this isn’t a truly advantage factor for South Africa.

In my opinion we are getting some value with Mexico as a potential scenario of a draw won’t hurt our bankroll while I believe that Mexico has better chances to win the game.

Single Dime Play on Mexico PK -115

DUNKEL INDEX

Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
The White Sox look to build on their 4-0 record in Jake Peavy's last 4 starts in Game 1 of a series. The White Sox are the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the White Sox favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+110)

Game 951-952: St. Louis at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 15.525; Arizona (Lopez) 14.823
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); Over

Game 953-954: Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Peavy) 15.498; Cubs (Wells) 15.356
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-130); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+110); N/A

Game 955-956: Houston at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Myers) 15.118; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.049
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-290);
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-290);

Game 957-958: NY Mets at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Dickey) 14.715; Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.504
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-105); Over

Game 959-960: Washington at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Atilano) 15.617; Cleveland (Westbrook) 15.134
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+105); Over

Game 961-962: Pittsburgh at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 14.369; Detroit (Verlander) 13.834
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-265); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+225); Under

Game 963-964: Florida at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanchez) 14.395; Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.193
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-175); Under

Game 965-966: Philadelphia at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Moyer) 14.977; Boston (Lackey) 15.510
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-155); Under

Game 967-968: Kansas City at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 15.303; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 16.252
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-170); Over

Game 969-970: Atlanta at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 17.161; Minnesota (Liriano) 15.992
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+110); Under

Game 971-972: Texas at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harden) 15.371; Milwaukee (Narveson) 15.803
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+105); Under

Game 973-974: Toronto at Colorado (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 14.209; Colorado (Jimenez) 15.840
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-220); Over

Game 975-976: Seattle at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 14.005; San Diego (Correia) 15.034
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Diego (-140); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-140); Over

Game 977-978: LA Angels at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Pineiro) 15.912; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 17.408
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-165); Under

Game 979-980: Oakland at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gonzalez) 15.536; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.994
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-190); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-190); Under

WNBA

Indiana at Connecticut
The Sun look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 home games. Connecticut is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Sun favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-3)

Game 651-652: Atlanta at New York (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 110.981; New York 115.762
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 5; 159
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 2; 164
Dunkel Pick: New York (-2); Under

Game 653-654: Indiana at Connecticut (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 109.171; Connecticut 115.735
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 6 1/2; 152
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 3; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-3); Over

Game 655-656: Tulsa at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 108.017; San Antonio 115.065
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 7; 155
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 5; 159 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-5); Under

Game 657-658: Washington at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 108.369; Chicago 118.018
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 9 1/2; 153
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 4; 147
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-4); Over

Scott Spreitzer

France v. Uruguay
Pick: Uruguay

I'm playing underdog Uruguay on Friday. France, the 2006 World Cup runner-up has had their problems over the last couple of years and they're a bit of a mess heading into Friday's opener. They finished 0-2-1, scoring a grand total of one goal in three games in Euro Cup '08, and they barely qualified for South Africa, thanks to a hand-ball by Thierry Henry in a win over Ireland. Officials missed it on the field and FIFA refused Ireland's request to replay the game. Les Bleus have not looked too hot again in their last two friendlies, finishing in a 1-1 draw with TuniSIA, then losing to China just last Friday, a 1-0 shutout. France has changed their long-term formation of 4-2-3-1 to a 4-3-3 look in an attempt to bolster the offense. It hasn't worked thus far and the team looks frustrated right now. Then there's the strange coaching change that's already been announced, but won't take place until after the World Cup ends. Imagine Doc Rivers or Phil Jackson getting their walking papers a week before the NBA Finals, but were told they'd actually coach the Finals first. Unheard of. Not exactly the best case scenario for the 1998 World Cup champs. Uruguay is looking to reach the knockout phase for the first time in 20 years. They have the offensive attack to put non-stop pressure on France, thanks in part to Diego Forlan, who's scored 56-goals over the last two seasons for Atletico Madrid. Luis Suarez will also start up front, a 35-goal scorer this season for Ajax. Uruguay is in much better form than France right now, and I expect them to cash a big dog ticket on Friday. I'm playing Uruguay to pull the upset.

Marc Lawrence

Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies and Red Sox meet in the opener of a three-game Interleague series at Fenway Park Friday night. When they do it will be soft-tossing veteran Jamie Moyer matching serves with John Lackey. While Lackey is in rotten KW form with 14 walks and 10 strikeouts in his last four starts, he also owns a miserable 6.26 ERA in his last six efforts. With that, look for the Phillies to improve to 8-2 on Fridays, their best day of the week, here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

Steve Merril

Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Washington Nationals

Washington is entering their interleague game with Cleveland on a high note having won three straight games. They'll face Cleveland’s Jake Westbrook who is 3-3 with a 4.84 ERA on the season. Westbrook is 1-1 with a 5.58 ERA in his last three starts giving up 12 runs and 18 hits in 19.3 innings of work. The righty took a loss in a match-up with the Nationals back in 2007. Willie Harris (2-7) has had the most success against Westbrook. The righty is backed by a bullpen that has a 5.24 ERA on the season. They've blown seven saves this season and carry a terrible 5-12 record. The Nationals’ Luis Atilano has beaten Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum already this season. He's been solid recently going 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts. On the road, Atilano has yet to lose going 4-0 in five starts. The righty has yet to face a single Cleveland hitter in his short career which certainly gives him a slight advantage here. The Indians moved to just 10-16 after their come from behind win last night at home. However, Cleveland is still hitting below .240 as a team a home, and they do not deserve to be a favorite in this spot. We recommend a play on the Nationals at plus money in this game tonight.

Cajun Sports

Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres open a weekend Interleague set with the first game Friday night at 10:05PM Eastern Time. Seattle will send left-hander Jason Vargas to the bump with his 4-2 record and ERA of 3.06. San Diego will counter with right-hander Kevin Correia who is 5-4 this season with an ERA of 5.03. Seattle has dominated this series and it has not mattered who was on the bump for either team. The Mariners are 10-1 their last 11 games in San Diego and 13-5 their last 18 overall versus the Padres. Seattle has played well in Interleague affairs going 7-1 their last 8 versus winning teams and 35-16 versus the NL West. San Diego has not been as fortunate posting a record of 6-20 at home during Interleague play and 1-8 their last nine at home facing left-handed starters from the American League. The Padres are 16-36 overall in Interleague play their last fifty-two times to post. Even when they face losing teams from the American League, they struggle with a 4-10 mark their last fourteen in this situation. Seattle qualifies as a high value underdog in tonight’s contest so take the visitor here as they grab another victory in sunny California.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Seattle Mariners 3 San Diego Padres 2

Rob Vinciletti

New York Mets vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: New York Mets

The Mets fit a nice system here that plays against home teams that are off a home dog win at +140 or more vs an opponent off a home favored win. The Orioles are off a nice 4-3 win vs the Yankees. Now they get the New York Mets tonight. Baltimore is a terrible 3-17 when the total is 8 to 8.5 and 6-29 vs winning teams. The month of June has not been kind as the Orioles have lost 7 of 9 thus far. The Mets are 6-2 in June and hit 40 points higher in Interleague games than Baltimore. In the pitching matchup the Orioles have J. Guthrie making the start and Baltimore has lost in 9 of his 12 starts this season. The Mets have knuckle baller RA. Dickey on the mound tonight. Dickey has done real well filling in for an ineffective Oliver Perez for the Mets. In fact the Orioles may have trouble adjusting the the knuckle ball tonight after facing power righty AJ. Burnett last night. The Mets get the call as a small dog here tonight.

BIG AL

Mariners @ Padres
PICK: Over 6.5

All you need to know about San Diego righthander Kevin Correia's run support recently is to look at his ERA over his past three starts (6.59) and then look at the fact that the Padres have gone 3-0 in those games. In his last two starts alone, San Diego scored 18 runs and six runs respectively and that's not easy for this team to do. It must be good for Correia to feel that, even when he isn't on his game (and he hasn't been lately), the bats are still going to come out for him. Lefthander Jason Vargas gets the start for the M's and what a nice surprise he's been for this team. They will be looking to rely on him more in the near future if a rumored trade of Cliff Lee to the Yankees in a few weeks goes through. And Vargas gets his share of run support as well. In his last four starts, the Mariners have scored a total of 20 runs and Vargas is 3-1 in those games. There doesn't seem to be any shortage of runs when these two teams get together as in the last six meetings of these clubs, a total of 70 runs have been scored, or close to 12 runs per game average. Take the 'over.'

David Chan

Toronto Blue Jays @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays

Take the Jays and Ricky Romero over the Rockies and Ubaldo Jimenez.

Betting against Ubaldo Jimenez seems crazy, but this price can’t be passed up. The Jays can hit some, and with Romero pitching they should be able to squeeze out enough runs to win this game 40% of the time. The Jays are 8-4 in Romero’s starts this year.

The Rockies are a scintillating 11-1 when Ubaldo takes the hill, but don’t regularly see pitchers of Romero’s class. Romero, for his part, is coming off a start where he held the Yankees to two runs over eight innings. That Yankees lineup, of course, had a DH in it. The Rockies will offer Romero an easier order, and the Jays will be right there. Getting +150, we pass. Getting +180 or more, we get on.

Jim Feist

Astros vs. Yankees
Play: Under 9

New York may be an offensive park, but the second worst offensive team comes to town in the Astros. At least Houston goes with a good arm in Brett Myers, who is 1-0 with a 2.29 ERA his last three starts, fanning 19 in 19 innings. The Yankees have an even better arm going in Andy Pettitte, throwing against his hometown team, a club he used to pitch for. Pettitte has a 7-1 record and a 2.47 ERA in a dynamite season. His last three starts: 1.99 ERA, 3 walks, 19 Ks in 22 innings. Play the Astros/Yankees Under the total.

EZWINNERS

San Francisco Giants -193

This is the game that I expect Giants starting pitcher Tim Lincecum to get his shit back on track. Lincecum is 0-2 with an ERA of 6.23 over his last three starts, but Oakland should be the perfect opponent for him to get back to his Cy Young form. The light hitting A's from the American League lose their designated hitter as they travel across the bay to play in the National League park and they are facing a pitcher who has dominated them in the past. Lincecum is 3-0 with an ERA of only 1.23 in four career starts against Oakland. The A's starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez has pitched pretty well this season, but I expect the Giants to do enough damage to pick up the win at home. The A's are only 1-7 in their last eight interleague road games against a team with a winning record and the Giants are 8-0 in their last eight home games following a long road trip of seven days or more. Play on San Francisco.

Brad Diamond Sports

Play Boston over Philadelphia

Would like nothing better than to see the Phillies go up into Bean Town and take apart the Red Sox, but not tonight, not with Moyer on the hill.The Red Sox have won 4 straight against the Phillies at Fenway, while controlling the series overall at 17-5 last twenty-two times on the playing field. The Red Sox have been dynamite at home too with hurler John Lackey winning the last four. Plus the Sox are 40-13 in the Inter-League format, while the Phillies have suffered lately against winning teams at 2-8. Back the BoSox this evening.

Stephen Nover

I am 24-7-1 on my free selections after cashing on my two free plays Thursday with the under in Game 1 of the Padres-Mets doubleheader and with the Marlins on the run line against the Phillies.

Today I like the Baltimore Orioles to beat the New York Mets.

The Mets are just 8-18 on the road. They can't hit or pitch away from Citi Field batting .233 on the road with a road team ERA of 5.18.

The Mets did sweep a doubleheader at home on Thursday versus San Diego. But that adds a situational element to their normal road woes as the Mets are traveling following playing two games yesterday.

The Orioles are terrible, the worst team in the majors. But they can be respectable at home, especially with Jeremy Guthrie on the mound. He has a 3.71 ERA and would have better statistics if he played for a stronger team.

Guthrie has been pitching well at home recently with a 2-1 mark and 1.69 ERA during his last three starts.

The Mets are going with knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, who has a 4.15 ERA in two road starts this season. Dickey has been able to surprise some NL teams that are not familiar with him.

However, he's not going to baffle an American League club having pitched for seven years in the AL before this season.

3♦ ORIOLES

Karl Garrett

Going to give the Nationals a shot as the small road dog this Friday night, as I am liking what I am seeing right now from this Washington team. The Nats just swept the Pirates, and a win tonight would even their season record at .500.

Washington is gunning for their 4th win in a row, and starter Luis Atilano is a solid 5-2 this year, going 4-0 on the road with a road ERA just over 3.

Cleveland did rally last night, but are still just 10-16 on their home turf, and starter Jake Westbrook has not recorded a home win this year at 0-1 with a 5.56 home earned run average.

With the arrival of phenom Steven Strasburg, the Nationals seem to be playing with a purpose these days, the same cannot be said for the Tribe who is now 15 games under .500 for the season.

G-Man on Washington.

3♦ WASHINGTON