Bobby Maxwell
My FREE play run sits at 107-90-3 and tonight I have an interleague comp winner for you on the Red Sox as they take on the Phillies at Fenway Park in Boston.
Boston took two of three from the Phillies back in May in Philadelphia and the Red Sox are traditionally the best Interleague team in baseball, so let’s back John Lackey and the Red Sox in this one as the Phillies come to town for a three-game.
Philadelphia is sending veteran lefty Jamie Moyer (6-5, 3.98 ERA) to the Fenway Park hill tonight, a place this crafty hurler has struggled in his career. Six of his last 10 starts there have been ugly with him allowing four runs or more and three times allowing seven or more runs in very short stints. Teams he’s pitched for have dropped five straight against the Red Sox and seven of the last nine.
Lackey is 4-1 at Fenway and 2-0 in his last three with a 3.72 ERA. He pitched in Baltimore on Sunday and gave up just two runs in seven innings. He faced these Phillies back on May 21 and gave up four runs in five innings, losing 5-1.
Boston has beaten the Phils 17 of the last 22 meetings and the Red Sox are 65-24 in interleague action, 16-6 overall and 39-13 when they meet N.L. East teams. Throw in a 40-13 mark in interleague home games and you can see where they love playing these National League teams.
The Phillies are on slides of 2-6 against the A.L. East, 5-12 overall and 16-37 against American League right-handers.
I’ll pay the price to play the Red Sox at home tonight over the struggling Phillies.
5♦ BOSTON
BRETT ATKINS
Interleauge action resumes tonight and I've got a free winner for you on the Braves as they invade Minnesota to take on the Twins.
Outstanding pitching matchup tonight in Minnesota as the Braves put ace Tim Hudson on the hill against the Twins’ Francisco Liriano. Hudson has a 2.66 ERA on the road and a 2.44 ERA overall this season and has not allowed an opponent more than three earned runs in any start.
He has seen the Twins before, blanking them for 7.1 innings back in June 2007 in an interleague game and facing them several times as a starter for the A’s.
Atlanta is 22-8 over its last 30 games overall and they have looked good on this long road trip. Hudson has been tough as nails all season and he’ll get the job done here tonight.
The offense will get him a few runs and he’ll make them stand up. Play Hudson and the Braves in this one.
4♦ ATLANTA
JOEL TYSON
5-1 the last 6 days with my comp play releases.
The road tends to get a little long in the month of June, and with the Atlanta Braves having had to play consecutive 4-game sets in Los Angeles, and Arizona, you can excuse them if they are a little sluggish this Friday night at Target Field.
Minnesota has been rock-solid in their new park at x21-9, and starter Francisco Liriano is 2-1 in his new digs with a 2.25 home ERA.
Atlanta starter Tim Hudson is a tough nut to crack, but he usually doesn't get much run support when he is on the hill. With the Braves only 16-20 away from home this year, I will look for the road to catch up to them as they play for the 9th day in a row.
Twins win.
5♦ MINNESOTA
SPORTS WAGERS
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Chicago +1.11 over CHICAGO
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Note the 2:20 PM EST start. Jake Peavy remembers the National League very well indeed. That’s the league he dominated for years and a trip back to Wrigley Field to face the feeble-hitting Cubs can only bring back good memories for Peavy. He’ll be ready and so will the South Side. Jake Peavy (74 BPV, 4-4-3-3-4 PQS) suffered through a horrible April (7.85 ERA) but has done a great job of turning it around since then. His command has been way sharper, he posted a 3.07 xERA, and 155 BPV in May and it sure doesn’t hurt that the White Sox may have woke up. They’ve now won three of its last four while putting up a 15 and 8 spot in two of those games. As for the Cubbies, well, things are going from bad to worse. They’ve lost four series in a row to St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Houston and Milwaukee. The latter three are not easy to lose to, yet the Cubs pulled it off with flying colors. The Astros smacked around Randy Wells in his last start. He has just three quality starts over his last eight outings and three starts ago he failed to record a single out against the Cards. The league is hitting .290 off him and now there’s the added pressure of knowing that his spot in the rotation is in jeopardy, as Tom Gorzelanny waits. Wells has five K’s in his last three starts and hasn’t been fooling anyone for weeks. The South Side plus anything here is a no-brainer. Play: Chicago +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
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Houston +2.60 over NY YANKEES (1st 5 innings)
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The price here has heavy influence on this choice but there’s no denying that the Yanks are hugely overvalued here. For one, the Astros are playing some pretty good ball right now and are coming off a three-game sweep in Colorado. They’ve now won eight of 10 and Brett Myers has been one of the NL’s best pitchers. Myers has an ERA of 3.01. On the road his BAA is .238. He has 65 K’s in 80 frames and most importantly Myers has a 49% GB rate, which is one of the best in the league. At the new Yankee Stadium against this team, that’s big and should come in very handy. Andy Pettitte is having an outstanding year and you can’t help but root for this guy. However, he’s very capable of allowing runs, especially at home here he’s had a couple of tough outings. When you consider the way the Astros are playing, the excitement of playing on baseball’s biggest stage and then throw in this massive tag, this risk has to be one worth taking. Since this is largely based on the starter’s we’ll play it in five. Play Houston +2.60 in the first 5 innings (Risking 2 units).
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Seattle +1.25 over SAN DIEGO
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The Mariners have been getting torched, ripped apart and humiliated over the past several games and a gut check is definitely in order. The trip to San Diego is not likely to be a pleasant one after the M’s were swept in Texas and were outscored by a ridiculous 31-5 and batted an even more ridiculous .161 at that park. Geoff Baker, who blogs the Mariners for the Seattle Times, wrote the following after last night’s loss: “Not much more to say about this 12-3 loss by the Mariners. They are now 10 games out. For me, it's about next year now. I'm not going to get bent out of shape analyzing details of this game. It was the worst one the team has played all season. The players embarrassed themselves and the city”. One has to figure that the Mariners have “had enough” and will at least put forth a strong effort. More than that, however, is the situation. The Padres played a double-header yesterday and will travel across the country back home for the start of this series. Physically, that’s a tough challenge and it’s not like they’re ripping it up either. In fact, the Padres have hit a combined .164 over its last four games. Kevin Correia might be the Padres worst starter and his 5.03 ERA will confirm that. Correia also has a 6.59 ERA over his last three starts and the fact is, he’s very beatable. Jason Vargas throws strikes and has a BAA of just .223 over 70 IP. He has a 4-2 record and a 3.06 ERA. The M’s have actually won three of his last four starts against Toronto, Detroit and Minnesota and he surely is not facing a tougher line-up here. Play: Seattle +1.25 (Risking 2 units).
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Kansas City +1.51 over CINCINNATI
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The Royals are a dangerous team in that they can score a lot of runs and that makes wagering against them very risky when you’re laying significant juice. The Royals are third in the AL in team BA just behind the Yanks and Rangers. Bronson Arroyo is 5-3 with a 4.65 ERA and he’s really been enjoying some good fortune that cannot last. Arroyo is 4-1 over his last six starts with a 3.37 ERA, however, his BPV over that same stretch is a lousy 3 (see bottom of page for explanation of BPV and PQS). There is no doubt whatsoever that an implosion is forthcoming, as Arroyo remains one of the most hittable pitchers in the game and certainly on this staff. He simply cannot be trusted as this big a favorite over a strong hitting AL squad. Luke Hochevar seems to have turned a corner over his last five starts, posting a 3.86 ERA and while the Reds are dangerous and this park is tough on pitchers, Hochevar has a better chance of Arroyo than coming up with a good game. The tag in this one seals the deal. Play: Kansas City +1.51 (Risking 2 units).
Gill Alexander
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KAN (+150) vs CIN
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Hochevar has a 3.19ERA in his last 4 outings, all quality starts, holding opponents to a .214BA over that stretch. Arroyo is coming off a quality start v Was, going 8IP and allowing just 2ER on 6H, but preceded that outing w a 4.1IP, 7ER, 10H line v StL. Arroyo has a 7.30ERA in his last 7 interleague starts. Advanced statistical analysis favors Hochevar as the KC starter has a 3.79FIP and 4.25xFIP while Arroyo has a 4.47FIP and 5.07xFIP this season. Their .308 and .273 respective BABIPs indicate those numbers are not impeachable. The Royals swept the Reds last season and Hochevar kicked off that series w a complete game 3 hitter. With the Reds coming off yet another come-from-behind victory on Thursday, we're getting an inflated line to exploit. And exploit it we shall.
JR O'Donnell
TAM (-171) vs FLA
Tampa Bay Rays -171 blows out the Fla Marlins tonight as JR O's Free PLAY goes to a "10-2 inter-league" strong mark with the D-Rays team tonight. The D Rays are in a nasty mood after the Ugly loss last night and we feel that the Vegas Lines makers have put the Rays at -171 for a solid reason. The Rays are running out J Shields 3.64 ERA who will look to get back in the winners circle tonight. The Fla Marlins will throw A Sanchez who has done well the last few games but has been beat up in the inter-league venue. This is a huge gut play by JR O'S CAMP and the Rays are a strong GUT WINNER tonight. Rays, Rays, Rays BIG TIME tonight!
ROCKETMAN
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Seattle @ San Diego
Play: Seattle +135
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San Diego is 10-26 in Inter-League play the past 3 years. Jason Vargas is 4-2 with a 3.06 ERA overall this year and 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA his last 3 starts. Kevin Correia has a 6.58 ERA his last 3 starts. Seattle is 5-1 at San Diego the past 3 years. Mariners are 7-1 in their last 8 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. Mariners are 35-16 in their last 51 vs. National League West. Padres are 16-36 in their last 52 interleague games. Padres are 15-36 in their last 51 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter. Padres are 6-20 in their last 26 interleague home games. Mariners are 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in San Diego. We'll recommend a small play on Seattle tonight!
Tom Freese
Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles starter Chad Billingsley has 3 walks and 22 strikeouts in his last 3 starts. The Dodgers are 23-7 their last 30 games and they are 71-34 vs. righty starters. Los Angeles is 92-42 their last 134 games as favorites. Manny and company are 8-3 in Game 1 of a series. Anaheim starter Joel Pineiro is off a phony win in his last start where he allowed twice as many baserunners as innings pitched. The Angels are 3-9 their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning record and they are 1-4 in the last 5 road starts made by Pineiro.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Baltimore Orioles -112
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The public is all over the Mets here, and that right where the sports books want it. First off, the Mets are just 2-5 in their last 7 meetings with Baltimore. Second, New York has been awful on the road. The Mets are 16-39 in their last 55 road games, and they have even been awful against the worst teams, going just 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The Orioles are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record and 5-1 in their last 6 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter. Guthrie has pitched well for the Mets with an ERA of just 3.55 this season. All he'll need is a little run support, and I got a hunch he'll get it tonight with the O's riding the momentum of a big win over the Yankees. Dickey has performed well for the Mets, but his road outings haven't gone as smoothly. Look for New York's struggles to continue on the road tonight.
Stan Lisowski
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Baltimore Orioles
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Orioles have won 23 of 39 against the National League, while the Mets stand 7-11 vs. the American. New York is off a big doubleheader yesterday. On the road against righties, the Mets go 4-13.
O.C. Dooley
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Houston Astros +240
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One thing you want from a baseball underdog is a starting pitcher who has the ability to keep his team in the game until the late innings when anything can happen. Veteran Brett Myers fits that bill as he has pitched at least 6 innings in every start for Houston and his ERA is right on the THREE mark. Myers used to pitch for Philadelphia and is UNDEFEATED (2-0, 3.07 ERA) in his career when facing the Yankees. The “intangible” is that the last time Houston visited the Yankees (2003) was when they won courtesy of a NO-HITTER which was started by Roy Oswalt. We certainly have a confident underdog in this spot as Houston so far in the month of June has WON 8 of 10 outings. When stringing together a 3-1 winning streak this season, Houston is an excellent 10-4 in the subsequent outing. As we saw yesterday anything is possible as lowly Baltimore pulled off the upset against the Yankees in a contest where Alex Rodriguez (groin) had to make an early exit.
Roz Juarbe
Angels at Dodgers
Dodger stadium is a huge, pitcher friendly park and the Angels lose the DH for this Freeway series. A pair of good starters are on the mound who don’t walk anyone. Joel Pineiro has allowed 20 walks in 74 innings and is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA against the Dodgers. Chad Billingsley is 6-3 with a 3.80 ERA walking 24 in 71 innings. Don’t look for many runs. Play the Angels/Dodgers Under the total.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Kansas City Royals at Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds find themselves nine games over .500 and playing their best ball in a long while. They host the Kansas City Royals who are having one of their usual losing years. Cincinnati is 17-6 when the total is between 9 to 9.5. Kansas City is just 2-7 when they are a road underdog of +125 to +150. Play on the Reds
Play on: Cincinnati Reds
Tony George
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers -1.5
With Velander on the hill at home for Detroit, and the Pirates losing 5 in a row badly, as well as the Tigers losing their last 2 games by a total of 18-3 against the White Sox, I like the better team at home to wax the Pirates tonight. Pitt has only won 17 out of their last 75 road games, just deplorable.
They also are struggling at the plate against right handers, just batting .208 as a team their last 10. I will REDUCE the odds by playing the RUNLINE here down to -115 and play a half unit on the Tigers in a 5-2 or 6-3 type ballgame tonight and get a much needed win with their ace on the hill.
Wunderdog
Mets vs. Orioles
Play: Under 9
The New York Mets have really suffered on the road where their offense generates just four runs a game. Their pitching holds them in games vs weaker teams, but the UNDER has thrived. The Mets are 12-2 in road games facing teams below .400 at home in their last 14 and 19-6-1 overall in that situation to the UNDER. The Birds have fallen short of the total behind Guthrie as they are 16-5 to the UNDER in his last 21 starts. Also, the Birds have played UNDER to the tune of 33-16-3 in their last 51 as a home favorite. In addition, the Mets are 15-2 to the UNDER opening a series while the Birds are 8-1 to the UNDER behind Guthrie opening a series.I'll ride with the UNDER here.