TEDDY COVERS
Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Angels have overachieved over the past few weeks since their leading slugger Kendry Morales, went down with a season ending injury following a walk-off home run. Then again, a particularly weak schedule certainly helped, with six games against Seattle, four against KC and four against the light hitting A’s over the past two weeks. But the Angels offense has shown real signs of finally feeling Morales’ absence; held to a single run twice in their last three ballgames.
Don’t expect it to get much easier tonight against Chad Billingsley and the stellar Dodgers bullpen behind him. Billingsley has been tremendous over the last month. He’s allowed a grand total of ten earned runs in his last five trips to the hill, lasting seven full innings or more three times during that span. With a 33-6 strikeout to walk ratio in those five starts and a 2.89 ERA in four previous career starts against the Angels, Billingsley is a pitcher worthy of our trust tonight. The Dodgers bullpen behind him is in tremendous current form, one of the top five ‘pens in baseball.
Angels starter Joel Piniero has been lit up repeatedly in recent starts, allowing 22 earned runs in 23 innings of work over his last four starts. The bullpen behind him is spotty at best. Facing a red hot Dodgers squad – winners of four straight, eight of their last ten and 23 of their last 30 ballgames – expect the Angels to come up short. 2* Take the LA Dodgers.
BEN BURNS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox
This line has fallen a bit from its opener and I feel that provides us with some solid value on the home team.
Moyer continues to be a remarkable story and I won with him in his last start. However, that was vs. the Padres. Here, he'll face a much more potent lineup and a team which has given him problems, in recent years. Indeed, Moyer is 0-7 with an awful 9.07 ERA in nine starts vs. Boston, since May 8, 2001.
While Lackey lost at Philadelphia last month, he's still 12-5 with a stellar 2.77 ERA for his career, in Interleague play.
The Red Sox are 11-6 all-time at home against the Phillies. They're also a profitable 40-15 (+16.7) the last 55 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of either 10 or 10.5. Consider laying the wood.
MATT FARGO
Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Atlanta Braves
The Braves are 4-4 on their current roadtrip to remain nine games over .500 overall and in first place in the National League East. They are 22-8 over their last 30 games after a slow start to the season and once again catch a good underdog price here. The Twins took two of three against the Royals following the Thursday loss to move to 19-9 at home and that is the reason for this large price as I feel the pitching matchup actually favors the road team. Francisco Liriano has had a great bounceback season as he is 5-3 with a 3.10 ERA in 11 starts. This came after a dreadful 2009 campaign and while he has shown great improvement, this is not a great spot in my opinion. The Twins have dropped four of his last six outings with the two wins coming by just a run apiece and neither of those opposing starters can match tonight’s opponent. Tim Hudson is once again looking like the Tim Hudson of old. He is coming off one of his worst starts of the season and considering it was a quality outing shows exactly how good of a season it has been. 10 of his 12 starts have been quality outings and in his last eight starts, Hudson has completed 52.2 innings with a 2.05 ERA. And if not for rain shortening his start against the Marlins on May 27th, Hudson would have completed at least 5.2 innings in every outing this season. The Braves are 6-1 in their last seven games against left-handed starters while going 7-3 in Hudson’s last 10 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Twins are 1-6 in Liriano’s last seven home starts against teams with a winning record. 3* Atlanta Braves
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on A's/Giants UNDER 6.5
Lincecum is 3-0 lifetime in 4 starts against Oakland with an ERA of 1.23. The last 3 times he's faced them, we've seen scores of 1-0, 3-0 and 4-1. Gonzalez has an ERA of just 3.08 in 2 career starts against San Francisco, and he has already defeated the Giants once this season, allowing only 2 hits in 8 innings of a 1-0 win. His success against the Giants really doesn't come as much of a surprise considering they are hitting just .255 and scoring only 3.7 runs per game against lefty starters this season. History is on our side as well as the Under is 40-18-2 in the last 60 meetings and 20-8-2 in the last 30 meetings in San Francisco. Bet the Under.
Freddy Wills
New York Mets vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play Baltimore Orioles
Today's free pick is with the O's with 34% of the public fading them the line that opened at -103 is now climbing to -115 in some places. Guthrie has pitches extremely well with a 3.77 ERA and that's against three of the better hitting teams in the AL in their division in the Blue Jays, Yanks and Sox. He's got a 3.55 ERA and success in one start against the Mets. Dickey has not pitched the same on the road and I believe he struggles having to face the extra hitter with the DH in play!
Jack Jones
Texas Rangers -115
Texas is hitting the cover off of the ball right now, and that should continue Friday against a struggling starter in Chris Narveson of the Brewers. The Rangers have won 3 straight games, scoring 31 runs in the process for an average of 10.3 RPG. Texas is 5-2 in their past 7 games, scoring 7.6 RPG and hitting .327 in the process. At the same time, opponents are hitting just .216 while scoring 3.7 RPG in their last 7 contests. Narveson is 0-2 with a 7.47 ERA and 1.787 WHIP in his last 3 starts, and Rangers hitters are licking their chops at an opportunity to get after him tonight.
Home-field hasn't been an advantage at all for th Brewers this season, where they are just 10-17 while hitting .248 and scoring 4.2 RPG. Milwaukee's bullpen has been atrocious, posting a 10-13 record with a 5.91 ERA while blowing 10 of 20 save opportunities. Texas has gotten solid work from their relievers, posting a 12-10 record with a 3.69 ERA while converting 18 of 27 save chances. The Brewers are 3-11 against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. Texas is 24-11 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The Rangers are a perfect 6-0 in Rich Harden's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with Texas Friday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -142
The Red Sox have absolutely owned this interleague matchup, winning 17 of the last 22 meetings, and I like them to keep rolling tonight considering how dominant they have been against lefty starters. Boston is hitting .283 and scoring 6.1 runs per game against southpaw starters this season. The Phillies have dropped 3 of Moyer's last 4 starts and they are 0-6 in his last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Plus, Boston is one of the very best interleague teams, especially at home where they have won 40 of their last 53 interleague games. The Phillies have lost 7 of their last 10 and I look for their struggles to continue here.
This play is dedicated to Cash and Blade who run the BEST FREE SPORTS PICKS forum on the planet:
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
464 - 334 run 58%
Free play FRIDAY Seattle Mariners + 125
Recent results:
TY THURS Blue Jays + 125 TY WED Tampa -140 TY Tues Minn Twins -130
8)
GAMBLERS WORLD
Atlanta at Minnesota
Play: Atlanta
Every once in awhile a game jumps off the board, and we finally find one here tonight as the Braves play their first Interleague game of the 2010 season. The Twins have cooled off a bit after streaking to 1st place in the AL Central, going 4-5 in thier last 9. Meanwhile, the Braves have taken control of first place in the ultra-tough NL East by going 10-4 over the last two and half weeks. Couple that with the fact that Hudson (6-1) is throwing very well this season for the Braves and we think the wrong team is favored here.
Nelly
Seattle + over San Diego
The Padres are 3-0 in the last three starts for Kevin Correia which hides some of his recent struggles. In his last seven outings Correia has allowed four or more runs five times and his ERA is 6.25 in that span. Though Correia has pitched much better at home he still has worse than average numbers in his home starts, particularly troubling considering the advantage pitchers seem to have in San Diego. Seattle is a struggling team but the Mariners have had to play a very difficult schedule in the last few weeks. Jason Vargas is just 4-2 but he has quietly put together an excellent season and he has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last ten starts. Vargas owns a 1.13 WHIP for the season and this will be the first look at Vargas for most San Diego hitters. Seattle is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings between these teams and although San Diego won two of three earlier this season they Padres barely out-scored the Mariners. Last night's loss looked bad but the Mariners allowed eight unearned runs and Seattle should rebound with a sharp performance tonight.
Larry Ness
LOS / ANA Over 8.5
These two LA rivals open a 17-day stretch of interleague play with the Angels concluding a 14-game road trip and the Dodgers wrapping up a 13-game homestand (you won't see this often!). The Angels beat the Mariners 5-1 on May 29 when Morales hit a walk-off grand slam but as everyone knows, he broke his leg when he 'jumped' on home plate. However, the Angels have gone 9-3 since that time, averaging 5.92 RPG (all but the first of those games have come on this road trip). Meanwhile, the Dodgers are 8-2 on their current homestand (16-5 L21 home games), posting a 2.76 ERA during that current stretch with opponents hitting just .217. However, I still want to 'OVER' in this game. Billingsley gets the start and while he was 4-0 (team was 5-0) in his previous five games before losing his last start 9-3, his ERA is 4.19 over his last three starts, with all three games going over, averaging 11.3 RPG. Joel Pineiro has been streaky all season for the Angels. He opened with a 1.77 ERA in his first three starts, then allowed 21 hits and 15 ERs (14.46 ERA) over 9.1 innings of his next two outings. He followed with an 0.84 ERA over his next three but over his most recent four starts, has an 8.61 ERA with those four games averaging 11.8 RPG (3-1 to the over). Play the 'OVER.'
Sac Lawson
LOS / ANA Over 8
To me, this series simply has high scoring written all over it. Last year these teams played 5 of their 6 games over 8 runs, and with how effective the Angels are in mounting hits and moving runners, it's hard to think they can't find a way to score against the Dodgers effective pitching. And on the other side, with how much the Angels pitching staff has struggled, and how effective the Dodgers are at home, it's hard to imagine them not scoring some runs either.
Billingsley faced the Angels twice last year, and the average runs scored in those games was 13! He's definitely had a mediocre season thus far, and his last two starts have him in something other than top form. I do think he has good stuff, but I also think the Angels are one of the toughest teams in the AL to pitch to when you haven't seen them much.
On the other side, Pineiro has a road ERA of well over 8 this year, and quite frankly, he has not looked at all effective. The majority of Pineiro's pitches are fastballs, he's very predictable, and the Dodgers can really hit at home.
Very simply analysis here guys, I simply like taking the Dodgers at home against a guy like Pineiro who has struggled like crazy this season, but I also like taking the Angels due to their success against Billingsley last year, and their ability to grind in some runs. I think both teams can hit 5 runs today, and I'm willing to put a unit on that!
wayne Bryant
MIN (-145) vs ATL
The Twins look like a solid play tonight at Target Field. Francisco Liriano gets the start for the Twins, who are 20-10 at home. Liriano has been very tough at home, sporting a 2.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. His 24/7 K/BB ratio is nice, as is the fact that he has not allowed a single homer in 28 innings of work at Target Field this season. Three starts ago, Liriano held the Yankees to just 2 runs in 7 innings of work, so I expect him to be able to handle this Braves lineup for two reasons: 1) Only 3 Braves hitters have ever faced him (Glaus is 1-for-1, Infante 1-for-5, and Cabrera 1-for-6); and 2) The Braves are batting just .208 on the road against lefties this season.
Tim Hudson has very good season numbers, including on the road. But his 16/22 K/BB ratio on the road is a bit concerning. The Twins haven't seen much of Hudson lately, so they may struggle for the first four innings or so. I don't expect Jim Thome to struggle at all, as he is 9-for-16 (.563) with 6 walks, a double, and FOUR (4) homers lifetime against Hudson. That, folks, is a .682 OBP, 1.375 Slugging Percentage, and a 2.057 OPS. WOW! As a team, the Twins are batting .291 and scoring 5.73 runs per game against righties at home this season.
These two pitchers are also night and day when it comes to Interleague action. Liriano is 7-1 with a 2.67 ERA in eight career interleague starts. NL opponents are batting .198 against the left-hander, who has struck out 61 in 54 innings. Hudson is 1-11 with a 7.27 ERA in 14 interleague starts since he was traded to Atlanta before the 2005 season. He hasn't won an interleague start on the road since beating Pittsburgh on June 20, 2002, while with Oakland.
Minnesota also has the edge in the bullpen. Atlanta's pen owns a 3.81 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season, while Minnesota's pen sports a 2.72 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home.
It all looks good to me. Take Minnesota/Liriano over Atlanta/Hudson.