Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday June, 15

Marc Lawrence

Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds

The Reds and Mets meet in the opener of a three-game series where Bronson Arroyo opposes Dillon Gee in the Big Apple Friday night. Arroyo takes the mound knowing he is 4-0 with a sparkling 1.64 ERA in his last four road starts against the Mets and 4-1 in his last five road team starts during June. On the other side of the coin Gee checks in knowing the home team is 2-10 in his twelve teams starts this season. With that we'll back the percentages, and the Reds, here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cincinnati.

Rob Vinciletti

Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa fits a 90% system here that plays on home favorites off a home loss and scored 5 or more runs in the loss, vs an opponent like Miami that comes in off a home dog loss. Tampa should rebound nicely vs Miami here after getting swept here by the Mets. Miami is a team in turmoil as they are taking to the road off a 1-8 home stand that has seen them get outscored 56-17. Managers O. Guillen is fresh off another shouting match with struggling closer H. Bell as well. Tampa has Lefty M. Moore going tonight and he has been solid for the most part. Tonight he takes on C. Zambrano, who has been largely ineffective of late with a 6.19 era over his last 3 starts. In his outings vs Tampa is where he has really struggled as he is 0-2 with an 11.00 era. Look for Rays to sting the Marlins tonight.

Ben Burns

Sweden @ England
PICK: Sweden

As usual, there are a few different lines to choose from. If available, I'm recommending Sweden at +0.5, as a slight favorite. I believe this game has quite a strong shot at a draw and I want to get the victory with Sweden, should this be the case.

Admittedly, the English had a much better result in their opening game. Facing a tough France squad and playing without primary offensive weapon Wayne Rooney, England gutted out a 1-1 draw. Still, if you watched the game you would have seen that France had far more chances while also dominating the match with 64.9% of the possession time.

The Swedes weren't nearly as happy with their effort. Facing co-host Ukraine, arguably the least talented team in the group, Sweden squandered a 1-0 lead and lost 2-1.

Still, I believe this Swedish team is more capable than it showed in the opener. I also believe that they'll be more hungry. The Swedes know they desperately need a victory now and they'll also be looking to show the world they're better than they played in the loss vs. Ukraine.

Sweden coach Eric Hamren commented: "...We didn’t show the courage we were supposed to. Only five or six players did. We all need all the players doing that. We were cowards in the first half and should have done more. I’m not happy with the team; I was expecting more."

While I won't go as far as to say the Swedes are as talented as the English, I do expect them to respond to their coach's comments by giving everything they've got.

England would obviously very much like the win too. However, the English would still probably feel pretty good about their chances of advancing, even if they draw here. After all, they get Ukraine in the final game of group stage and they'll have Rooney back for that one. They really sat back a lot against France and a similar strategy could occur here. Consider Sweden at +0.5 goal. Or, if that option isn't available to you and/or if you'd prefer to take a shot at a better return, consider the "draw" option.

Chris Elliott

Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays

The Philadelphia Phillies (31-34) will give the ball to 24 year old Vance Worley for Friday`s evening game with the Toronto Blue Jays (31-32). Worley is 3-2 on the season with an ERA of 3.00, a WHIP of 1.33, and a BAA of .259. He has made 2 starts since coming off the DL, giving up 3 runs in 4 innings in his first appearance and then pitching 6 innings of shutout ball in the second. The Phillies have lost 3 of the last 5 road starts that Worley has made.

Rookie right hander Drew Hutchison will be on the mound for the Jays. Hutchison has had a good start to his career with a record of 5-3 an ERA of 4.66, BAA of .259, and WHIP of 1.34. He has been particularly good when pitching at the Rogers Center giving up 7 runs in 4 starts over 26 innings with a 2.42 ERA. He has never faced the Phillies in his career.

Jim Thome has been red hot for the Phillies hitting 3 HR and 12 RBI in his past 5 games! Hunter Pence and Carlos Ruiz have also been on fire, batting .444 and .389 respectively over the past week. The Blue Jays hope that Jose Bautista can keep his recent strong play going as he has hit .304 with 4 HR and 7 RBI in the past 7 days. Colby Rasmus continues to hit well out of the two hole for the Jays with 2 HR, 4 RBI, and a .250 average over the same time frame. The Jays were just swept by the NL East leading Washington Nationals and I look for the team to come out swinging against the Phillies and get back on the winning track at home. Pick the “Blue Jays”.

Bryan Power

Astros @ Rangers
Pick: Rangers -1.5

Though both teams hail from the Lone Star State, that's about where the similarities end. While the Rangers have made back to back appearances in the World Series the last two years, the Astros have floundered badly - due to a poor farm system and other reasons. With Houston such a prohibitive underdog on the money line for tonight's series opener, I am going to instead look at the Run Line and lay the -1.5 with Texas.

After winning four of five overall and two straight over Arizona, the Rangers were denied the sweep Thursday, losing to the Diamondbacks 11-3. It was nearly double the number of runs Texas had allowed in its previous four games COMBINED! But Scott Feldman is not pitching tonight, Yu Darvish is. Darvish has yet to taste defeat in Arlington this season, winning all five starts. The other good news is that the Rangers are an impressive 63-33 off a loss dating back to last season.

Houston is usually not a good bet when the oddsmakers install them as a significant dog. They've lost 50 of 65 times when a ML dog of +150 or higher on the road and scored just one run in two losses to the Rangers earlier this year. Starter Jordan Lyles has never fared well against the Rangers with an 0-3 TSR and 7.00 ERA, inlcuding a loss on May 20th of this season. Nor has his team fared well against the Rangers, dropping 11 of 15 in this in-state rivalry.

Freddy Wills

Kansas City Royals vs. St.Louis Cardinals
Play: St.Louis Cardinals

Kyle Lohse has been pretty consistent all year long and he has been flat out dominant over his last two starts and over his last three combined he posts a 2.89 ERA as the Cardinals have gone 2-1. What impresses me the most is his 0.91 WHIP and his ability to pitch at home where he owns a 2.67 ERA on the season. He'll go up against the Royals who have a .615 OPS in 50 AB off him. The Royals are also scoring 1 run less vs. RHP overall and on the road compared to the Cardinals overall and at home. The Royals have an inexperienced pitcher that walks too many guys and that is a recipe for disaster when facing the best team in the National League when it comes to hitting RHP.

Vince Mazarro makes his 4th start and he'll have to face Matt Holliday who owns him in his two starts against the Cardinals as he is 4-5 with a HR off him. The Cardinals are 25-12 in their last 37 home games vs. a RH starter and they are 42-20 in their last 62 overall inter league games vs. a RH starter. My issue with Mazzaro as he has yet to go deep in games and he is walking 4.80 guys per 9 innings right now. He has two starts at the Cardinals over the last two years and has a 5.73 ERA.

Notable Hot Starters:
Ryan Dempster (3-0, 0.93 WHIP, 2.79 ERA)
James McDonals (3-0, 1.00 WHIP, 2.00 ERA)
Drew Hutchison (2-1 0.98 WHIP, 2.66 ERA)
Francisco Liriano (1-2, 0.96 WHIP, 2.55 ERA)
Trevor Cahill (2-1, 1.30 WHIP, 2.42 ERA)
Ryan Vogelsong (3-0, 1.06 WHIP, 1.66 ERA)
Chris Sale (3-0, 0.66 WHIP, 1.11 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Carlos Zambrano has posted a 6.19 ERA over his last three starts comibined and easily has the best chance of the two cold pitchers to have a better start. The other starter is Anthony Bass posting a 7.47 ERA over his last three. Zambrano has a 1.65 ERA on the road this season and has been pretty consistent and he'll face lefty Matt Moore and the Rays who were just swept.

Notable Cold Starters:
Anthony Bass (1-2, 1.66 WHIP, 7.47 ERA)

Dave Cokin

Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins
Pick: Minnesota Twins

Not a lot of faith in erratic Francisco Liriano, but even less in that suddenly awful Milwaukee bullpen. I'm willing to give the Twins a try tonight in the role of home underdog.

Jim Feist

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Indians
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

James McDonald continues to impress for the Pirated, with a 5-2 record and a 2.39 ERA. He's a terrific strikeout pitcher (73) in 75 innings and doesn't walk anyone (22). Even more impressive is he's allowed 53 hits! The Indians are in the middle of the pack offensively and have never seen McDonal before. Cleveland goes with side-arm specialist Justin Masterson, who is 2-6 on the year with a 4.76 ERA. And he's not getting any better at 0-3 with a 5.21 ERA his last three starts. Play the Pirates.

SPORTS WAGERS

France +107 over UKRAINE

France will be looking for its first win of the Group stage. A solid defensive display by England and excellent goal keeping by Joe Hart kept France from collecting all three points. Ukraine played a sound game versus Sweden and secured three points. Consequently they’re in first place in Group D for the time being. France will be much more of a threat offensively than Sweden was and Ukraine will have to play mistake free to get anything from today’s match. With the intense Frank Ribery and creative Samir Nasri carving up defenders for France, along with Karim Benzema up front, they’re likely going to be a little much for the hosts to handle. Play: France (Risking 2 units).

England +125 over Sweden

This game should be a close knit battle between two teams desperate for all three points. Sweden lost to hosts Ukraine in their first game. The way in which they lost was disturbing because there seemed to be a lack of desire and a slew of mistakes. That type of effort in a talent rich tournament such as this will get you an early ticket home. England has an excellent opportunity today to gain a valuable three points if they can achieve more of a balance between offense and defense. They have the skilled players to make it happen. Manchester United’s Dani Welbeck and Ashley Young have bags full of talent, speed and goal scoring ability. If England decides to go with Liverpool forward Andy Carroll up front this will open up the wings and England’s speedy forwards could pose problems for the Swedish back line. A team that showed more grit, desire and heart in the first game of this event, taking back a price, gets our endorsement. Play: England (Risking 2 units).

Nelly

Chicago White Sox + over Los Angeles Dodgers

Chris Sale may not be able to keep this run up but over the last month he has been arguably the most dominant pitcher in all of baseball. The lanky left-hander appears to be putting it all together with five straight wins, allowing just 19 hits and four runs in his last 36 plus innings. In those five starts he has 45 strikeouts while walking just seven batters. The run has been reminiscent of the run that Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw got on late last season. Kershaw has just five wins on the year but he has pitched well this season. In recent outings he has been much more ordinary however with three or more runs allowed in four consecutive outings. The strikeout numbers are still strong but he could struggle against a Chicago lineup that is batting .274 in the last ten games against left-handed pitching. In contrast the Dodgers are batting just .212 vs. southpaws in that span. Los Angeles has received great relief pitching and Los Angeles is 22-11 at home this season but the White Sox are 18-11 on the road and Sale is an intimidating presence that few Los Angeles players have ever faced. Chicago has dominated the recent history of this series and this is nice underdog value on the hottest pitcher in the game.

MLB Predictions

Philadelphia Phillies +117

The Phillies have won their last 2 games, taking the three game set vs the Twins and can now feel better about themselves as they head into Toronto. Philadelphia knows that at 31-34 they have some work to do, but they hope to work their way towards the postseason again this year. The Phillies are 19-15 on the road. Toronto has lost 3 straight and 6 of their last 7 games coming into tonight, dropping them 6.5 games back in the AL East. Toronto is 31-32 on the year and 16-15 at home. With one of the AL's best starting pitchers this season, Brandon Morrow, hitting the DL the mood in Toronto isn't too good, as they knew they would need a lot from Morrow and Romero to guide this team into a push for the playoffs. Philadelphia had their bats going in Minnesota scoring 6, 9, and 7 runs. The Blue Jays have scored 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 7 games. Vance Worley will go for the Phillies and is 3-2 on the season with a 3.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and .259 opponents batting average. He is actually pitching better on the road with a 2-1 record and 2.03 ERA. Drew Hutchison was tagged for 5 earned runs over 6.1 innings his last time out in Atlanta, which brings his numbers to 5-3 on the season with a 4.66 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and .259 opponents batting average. Hutchison is better at home with a 3-0 record and 2.42 ERA. The Phillies are now 5-2 in their last 7 games as a road underdog, and 8-3 in their last 11 Game 1 of a series. They are also 18-8 in Worley's last 26 starts overall, 9-4 in his last 13 road starts, and 9-1 in his last 10 starts vs a team with a losing record. The Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 interleague games, and just 1-5 in their last 6 home games. Philadelphia has come into Toronto and won 6 of their last 8 meetings, including winning 3 straight series' in Toronto. With Philadelphia swinging hot bats right now and the Jays struggling to score runs I will take Philadelphia behind Worley as underdogs. Take the Phillies.

SPORTS WAGERS

Philadelphia +112 over TORONTO

The Blue Jays have just one win in their past seven games. Drew Hutchison has done well in his first exposure to major league hitting. He had outstanding command in the minors and he’s brought that with him to the majors. Four of Hutchison’s 10 starts have been really good and xERA shows that he’s got the potential to be a solid contributor. However, a 26% line-drive rate is concerning and so is the five jacks he’s allowed in his past four starts. Hutchison had a quick rise through the minors. With only had 32 IP at AA, and none at AAA, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some struggles at this level. He’ll be facing a Phillies team that has scored 4.9 runs per game since May 7, which is the fourth best mark in the majors. Vance Worley is the forgotten man in Philadelphia as Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Halladay are justifiably the headline grabbers. Worley went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA in 132 IP last season and the Phillies won their first 14 straight games that he started. He missed a couple of weeks in May with a bone chip but threw a six-inning gem against the Orioles in his second game back. Worley has 54 K’s and just 19 walks in 54 frames. He has a strong 50% groundball profile and his 3.00 ERA is right in line with his skills supported 3.18 xERA. After playing well at home, Toronto was just swept by the Nationals and a reeling team looking to a very green rookie spotting a tag is too risky for our liking. Play: Philadelphia +112 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. METS -113 over Cincinnati

The Mets are not only seeing beach balls at the plate right now but they’ve played extremely well at home all season long. They’re coming off a three game sweep in Tampa in which they scored an incredible 29 runs against one of the best staffs in the league. They’ll take a step down in class when facing Bronson Arroyo and the Reds’ staff. Current Mets have faced Arroyo 125 times and have hit .280 against him with a .324 OBP and a .724 OPS. Arroyo has allowed four runs or more in four of his past six starts and has a BAA this season of .290. If you haven't hopped on the Dillon Gee bandwagon by now because of his pedestrian 4.42 ERA, it’s time to change your thinking. Gee has a 3.21 xERA, an elite 54% groundball rate, 70 K’s in 77 innings, with just 22 walks issued. These are outstanding skills that have not been rewarded and as a result of his misleading surface numbers, we get a nice underlay on the Mets as a small favorite. Play N.Y. Mets -113 (Risking 2 units to win 1.74).

Lenny Del Genio

San Diego Padres @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Oakland Athletics

After sweeping the Mariners in Seattle, we can't see the Padres possibly winning another road game Friday night in Oakland, particularly facing another lefty. For the first time all year, San Diego has won three in a row, winning all three games as an underdog. It's unlikely that this run will continue. The team is 0-10 after allowing three runs or less in BB games. They are also 5-17 vs. lefties in 2012, averaging only 3.1 runs per game and consider that includes last night's 6-2 win. This is still a very poor road team at 9-21 for the year. Oakland is also coming off a three-game sweep, on the road over Colorado, as their own offense exploded for a total of 26 runs in this series. Neither pitcher here has had his best stuff of late, but we are more skeptical of San Diego's Anthony Bass, who checks in w/ a 7.47 ERA in his last three starts, allowing four or more runs in all of them.

Jack Jones

San Francisco Giants -106

The San Francisco Giants are showing solid value Friday as a small road favorite over the lowly Seattle Mariners. The Giants have been playing their best baseball of the season over the last month, going 18-8 over their last 26 contests.

The Giants have only lost back-to-back games once dating back to May 17th. This is a very resilient team, so I certainly like knowing the fact that they're coming off a loss heading into this one. San Francisco is 8-1 in their last 9 games following a defeat.

Despite having a very productive season last year, Ryan Vogelsong continues to go under the radar. Vogelsong is 5-2 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA and 1.061 WHIP in his last three outings.

Seattle is 0-8 in home games after batting .225 or worse over a 10 game span this season. The Giants are 7-0 in Vogelsong's last 7 starts overall. San Francisco is 8-0 in Vogelsong's last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Mariners are 0-5 in their last 5 home games. Bet the Giants Friday.