Info Plays
3* on Detroit Tigers -191
Reasons the Tigers win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (ARIZONA) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. This is a 61-5 ML System hitting 92.4% over the last 5 seasons while gaining +50.7 Units.
2.) Dontrelle Willis pitched for Detroit earlier this season, so Tigers hitters know what to expect from him and should put up a big number before knocking the lefty out early. Meanwhile, Armando Galarraga should continue his run as he's 1-0 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.784 WHIP in his last 3 starts, not allowing more than 2 earned runs in any of the three outings. The Diamondbacks are 9-25 in road games this year, while the Tigers are 27-8 against the money line in home games against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. Bet Detroit at home.
Gill Alexander
BOS (-135) vs LOS
Monasterios is coming off his worst outing of the season in which he went just 2.2IP while yielding 4ER on 7H v LAA. We successfully faded him then and we'll look to fade him again today. He has a 5.34FIP and 5.37xFIP. They would be the 3rd and 4th worst totals in all of baseball if had enough innings to qualify. Those figures are also a far cry from his 2.98ERA. His ERA-FIP would represent the worst discrepancy in all of baseball. His .242BABIP also indicates that the worst is yet to come. Doubront is making his debut. He had a 2.51ERA in Double-A and a 1.08ERA in Triple -A this season. I believe that the Dodgers will have more trouble w Doubront the first and second time through the lineup than the Red Sox will have with Monasterios, who is clearly on his last legs as an LAD starter.
JR O'Donnell
NYY / NYM Over 9.5
The 41-25 NY Yankees bats get back on track tonight after the Phillies held them in tact the last few nights as aging Veteran J Moyer and K Kendrick limit the Bronx Bombers to 4 runs in 2 ball games. The Pesky Mets hurler tonight will get bombed by a hungry Yankees club. Let's look at Hisanori Takahashi who is (5-2, 3.48 ERA) and he will be all the medicine that the Yankeess need to score early and often in game 1 tonight. Let's play the Over 9.5 here as Vegas has set the line at 9.5 for a reason. The NY Mets are a smooth 7-3-2 Over in 12 inter-league battles vs a winning ball club.
Brad Diamond Sports
Toronto over San Francisco
Don’t be fooled by Toronto hurler Brandon Morrow’s 4-5 record or his 5.14 ERA this season. Over his last four starts the youngster has come along with a 1-1 mark (2.16 ERA), while holding opponents to a .185 BA. Also, overall in his last three mound appearances Morrow has allowed just 3 earned runs. Granted opposing veteran Barry Zito (7-2, 3.10) is having a solid season, but the Giants are 3-9 in Interleague starts by the lefty. Plus, overall they are just 1-8 as an underdog. So, on Friday evening back the Blue Jays who field with a super 24-6 mark in the role of a favorite.
EZWINNERS
St. Louis Cardinals -241
The Cardinals send their ace Chris Carpenter to the mound for this interleague match up with Oakland. Carpenter continues to roll as he is 7-1 on the season with an ERA of just 2.66 and over his last three starts Carpenter's ERA is an even lower 1.71. Oakland will counter with Vin Mazzaro on the mound for the A's. Mazzaro is 2-1 this season with a 4.81 ERA and over his last three starts his ERA is 5.14. Oakland is only 7-19 in their last twenty six interleague road games against a team with a winning record, 4-10 in Mazzaro's last fourteen starts against a team with a winning record and 0-5 in Mazzaro's last five interleague starts. The Cardinals are 13-3 in their last sixteen interleague games against a right handed starter, 24-5 in Carpenter's last twenty nine home starts against a team with a losing record and 4-1 in Carpenters last five interleague starts. Play on St. Louis.
JEFF BENTON
That’s three straight free-play winners as the Braves (4♦) took down Tampa Bay on Thursday. In addition to cashing my last three freebies, I’m now on an 89-59-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away! For Friday, we’ll lay the reasonable price with the Rangers (7♦) at Houston.
Obviously, there’s no comparing these two teams when you look at their records – Texas is 38-28 and in first place by 2½ games in the A.L. West, while Houston is 26-41 and 11 games out of first in the N.L. Central (with only the Pirates keeping them from the division cellar). And when you look at recent form, you see that the Rangers have won five in a row (all on the road in N.L. ballparks!) and eight of nine, and those eight victories have been by a combined score of 57-25. At the same time, the Astros are just 1-5 in their last six games, and they haven’t won a game started by someone other than Roy Oswalt since June 9!
Now, I’ll admit that I haven’t been as quick to support Texas right-hander Scott Feldman as I was last year. However, Feldman has been coming around lately (2-1, 3.66 ERA last three starts). On the other hand, Astros lefty Wandy Rodriguez is just 3-9 with a 5.60 ERA this season and 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA in his last three outings.
Two final points to make: 1) The Rangers destroyed the Astros last season, winning five of six meetings (and that was when these squads were much closer to each other in terms of overall talent); and 2) this game figures to come down to the bullpens, and if it does, well, check this out: Texas’ relievers have posted a 1.69 ERA in their last 10 games (hence the reason they’re 8-2 in those contests), while Houston sports a 5.73 bullpen ERA in its last 10. Throw in the fact the Astros have lost seven of eight games to A.L. opponents, and this is an easy call, especially at this cheap price.
7♦ TEXAS RANGERS
CHUCK OBRIEN
Friday’s complimentary selection in interleague play comes from Toronto, as I’ll take the Blue Jays against the Giants.
Toronto is laying a very small price here – too small when factor in how strong tonight’s starter Brandon Morrow has looked lately. The right-hander has posted a 1.35 ERA in his last three outings, allowing exactly one run to the Rays, Yankees and Rockies (all powerful ballclubs, obviously). In those three contests, he surrendered a total of 12 hits and six walks while striking out 15 in 20 innings.
Also regarding Morrow: Although he’s just 4-5 on the season, all four wins have come at home (he’s 4-1 with a 3.41 ERA north of the border).
So why is Toronto such a small favorite tonight? One big reason is the Jays are coming off a 3-6 road trip and they’ve lost nine of 14 overall, while San Francisco comes in having won five of six. However, look at the competition: During their 5-9 slump, the Blue Jays have faced three first-place teams (Padres, Rays, Yankees), plus the talented Rockies in Coors Field. Meanwhile, the Giants’ recent 5-1 homestand was against the Orioles and A’s (yawn!).
The Giants have lost eight of their last nine games as an underdog (and they’re a sub-.500 road team for the year), while Toronto is an astounding 24-6 in its last 30 games as a favorite. The Jays are also 11-4 in their last 15 home contests and 5-1 in their last six after a day off.
2♦ TORONTO BLUE JAYS
BRETT ATKINS
Here comes an easy interleague winner for you tonight that will pull in some nice plus-money as I go with the Dodgers in Boston against the Red Sox.
Manny Ramirez makes his return to Fenway Park in Boston as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight in interleague action. That will be the story that gets all the headlines, but look for Los Angeles’ starter Carlos Monasterios to be the talk of the game as he will shut down the Boston bats with his electric stuff.
Monasterios was rock-solid in his first three starts, completely baffling the Cardinals, D’Backs and Rockies, giving up a combined five runs in 16 innings. Then he faced the Angels on Sunday and got knocked around for four runs in 2.2 innings. He wants to quickly erase that memory with a strong showing tonight.
Boston is letting Felix Doubront make his major league debut in this one after the kid looked great in AA and AAA this season with a combined record of 6-1 in 12 starts. Look for Manny to deliver a big hit in this one and the Dodgers to win it by a couple runs. Play the Dodgers.
2♦ L.A. DODGERS
Bobby Maxwell
My FREE play run sits at 110-93-1 and tonight I'm delivering another winner as I go with the Padres at home in San Diego to get the job done against the Orioles.
How good has Wade LeBlanc been since joining the Padres starting rotation early this season? The guy just consistently goes out there and deals, keeping his team in the game and giving them a chance to win each and every night. That’s why I’m going with the lefty to shut down the Orioles tonight in San Diego and win this one.
LeBlanc (4-4, 3.05 ERA) has been magnificent in his last three outings, allowing a combined three runs in 18.1 innings. He shut down the Mariners on Saturday at home and he’ll do the same to the Orioles tonight. The only question that always seems to come up when he pitches, is will the offense get him any support? Prior to the seven-runs they scored in his last start, they went three games with just eight runs.
Brian Matusz (2-7, 4.92) is on the hill for Baltimore, pitching in his college town as he went to school in San Diego. The Orioles are just 1-9 in his last 10 games and he has lost seven straight decisions. Saturday against the Mets he gave up three runs in eight innings of a 3-1 loss. But he has also had outings when he looked horrible, like the roadie in Texas when he allowed seven runs in 2.1 innings of a 13-7 loss.
Matusz is just 2-4 on the road with a 5.75 ERA and if he allows that in Petco tonight, it’ll be an easy San Diego victory.
The Padres take advantage of their big park and their starting staff knows it only has to go six innings and the bullpen will normally deliver the last three innings of a win. Play San Diego at home in this one to get LeBlanc enough runs and the bullpen to shut things down late. Go with the Padres to win it 4-1.
4♦ SAN DIEGO
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
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The Cubs host the Angels in this unlikely Interleague matchup when they send Carlos Silva to the hill Friday afternoon at Wrigley. Silva enters with wins in 10 of his last 11 team starts, with the loss a 2-1 setback in his most recent effort here Saturday against the White Sox. With Silva in commanding KW form with three walks and 22 strikeouts in his last three starts, look for Silva to improve to 7-2 in his home career team starts against the Halos here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Cubs.
Rocketman
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -1.5
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Milwaukee bullpen has a 5.67 ERA overall this year and a 5.35 ERA on the road this season. Colorado is scoring 5.4 runs per game at home this year. Colorado bullpen has a 3.24 ERA overall this year and a 3.20 ERA at home this season. Manny Parra is 1-4 with a 4.04 ERA in all games this year and 0-1 with a 5.02 ERA his last 3 starts. Jason Hammel is 4-1 with a 3.35 ERA at home this year and 2-0 with a 0.41 ERA his last 3 starts. Colorado is 5-1 at home vs Milwaukee the past 3 years. Parra is 0-1 with a 16.85 ERA overall vs Colorado since 1997. Hammel is 2-0 overall vs Milwaukee since 1997. Laying the Runline in this one shouldn't be a problem. We'll recommend a small play on Colorado on the Runline tonight!
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -154
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The Rays have taken 13 of the last 17 from the Fish, including 7 of the last 8 when in the visitor's dugout. They will have an excellent opportunity to continue their winning ways tonight with Robertson taking the mound for Florida when you consider that he is just 4-16 on the money line when facing a team with a winning record the last 3 seasons. We also can't overlook the fact that Florida is laying a goose egg (0-8) as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season. Look for the Rays to tee off on Robertson and for Garza to take care of the rest.
Black Widow
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1* on San Diego Padres -152
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Baltimore's embarrassing start to the season continues Friday as they fall to 18-49 for the season and 7-28 on the road. Starter Wade LeBlanc sports a 3.05 ERA this year, a 2.40 ERA through 7 home starts, and he's 2-1 with a 1.47 ERA in his last 3 starts. Now that's getting it done. Orioles starter Brian Matsuz is 2-4 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.722 WHIP in 7 road starts this year. The Orioles are 2-16 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Baltimore is 1-15 (-14.0 Units) against the money line vs. poor fielding teams - (turning 0.8 or less DP's/game) this season. The Orioles are 2-16 (-13.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. Take San Diego on the Money Line.
BOB WINGERTER
San Diego Padres -157
The San Diego Padres begin the weekend tied for first place in the National League West with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and just a half of a game ahead of the San Francisco Giants. San Diego has gone 5-5 in their last 10 games and 21-15 at home this season. As a team the Padres are hitting .246 with Adrian Gonzalez hitting .293, David Eckstein hitting .280, and Chase Headley hitting .267 and though they don't do a lot too flashy offensively, they seem to get it done in a timely manner. The Padres pitching staff delivers night after night and are the primary reason for San Diego's success as they have a team ERA of 3.09 with their starters at an impeccable 3.32 and the bullpen at a stellar 2.66. For game one against Baltimore, the Padres start Wade LeBlanc who has won his last two starts. For the season LeBlanc has allowed 66 hits and 21 earned runs while striking out 41 in 62 innings of work. Leblanc has allowed five home runs and 25 walks. The Baltimore Orioles have the worst record in all of baseball and it hasn't gotten any better recently as they have gone 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Orioles are 7-27 on the road this year so far and are 23 and a half games back in the American League East. The Orioles are hitting .249 as a team as Nick Markasis is hitting .300, Miguel Tejada is hitting .273, and Luke Scott is hitting .271. The Orioles Pitching hasn't been an asset as as they have a team ERA of 4.96 with the starting rotation at 5.11 and the bullpen at 4.68. For game one against the Padres Baltimore goes with Brian Matusz who seems to be a talented pitcher but it hasn't converted in the win/loss column. For the season Matusz has allowed 84 hits and 41 earned runs while striking out 61 in 75 innings of work. Matusz has walked 27 batters and allowed nine home runs. San Diego is 5-1 in their last six games following an off day, 4-1 in their last five interleague games as a favorite, 4-1 in LeBlanc's last five games against a team with a losing record, and 5-2 in the last seven games as a home favorite. Baltimore is 5-13 in their last 18 games following an off day, 1-4 in their last five interleague games against a left-handed starter, 1-6 in Matusz's last seven starts as an underdog, and 11-41 in their last 52 road games. This is a battle of first and last and both are in their places in the standings because they have earned it on the field. Baltimore has shown signs of life from time to time but certainly not anything we'd be willing to wager on at this point. San Diego looks like some solid value here.
SPORTS WAGERS
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BOSTON –1½ +1.41 over Los Angeles
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Ironic, isn’t it, that the Dodgers come in here the day after the Lakers beat the Celtics? Anyway, the Red Sox are on fire with five wins in six games and the best news is that they’re seeing beach balls at the moment. Boston has scored 52 runs over its last eight games and over that stretch they’ve gone yard nine times and they’re hitting a combined .336. Carlos Monasterios (13 BPV, 0-2-4-2-0 PQS) has a 3-1 record and 2.98 ERA, but they are not to be believed. Instead, keep your focus on his poor command, very average stuff, low durability and 5.00 xERA. He gave up four earned runs over 2.2 IP in his last start against the Angels and there's probably plenty more where that came from. Felix Doubront makes his major league debut. Doubront had an impressive showing with Double A Portland (4-0, 2.51 ERA) before being promoted to Pawtucket (2-1, 1.08 ERA). He’s a power lefty with outstanding stuff and opened some eyes in the spring with his poise and 92+MPH fastball that he throws for strikes. The Dodgers have struggled miserably all year against southpaws with a .240 BA and aside from a 12-run outburst over the Reds on Wednesday, its offense has been in neutral for about three weeks now. Play: Boston –1½ +1.41 (Risking 2 units).
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Cleveland –1.03 over PITTSBURGH
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Scalpers should have a field day for this series. The Pirates are going for 12 straight losses and there’s no reason whatsoever to believe they won’t get it. They’re good for two or three runs just about every game and even that could be a stretch against Fausto Carmona. Carmona has some good trends developing recently that include a 3.02 ERA over his last six starts. Those six starts came against Tampa, Cinci, the Yanks, Detroit, Boston and Washington and only once did he allow more than three runs against that strong group. He’ll now take a huge step down in class against a team that is seeing BB’s. Paul Maholm has been lowering his ERA despite a lack of skill improvement, mostly thanks to an 82% strand rate. The Indians are actually scoring plenty of runs these days and in fact, they’ve scored 51 times over its last eight games, which ranks second in the league just behind Boston over that stretch. Frankly, this is a pitching mismatch and the Indians are way undervalued in this game. Play: Cleveland –1.03 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
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Tampa Bay –1½ +1.06 over FLORIDA
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Two things to note here with the first being that Nate Robertson is a complete stiff with very little skills. His groundball rate is one of the lowest in the league, he’s almost always pitching from behind in the count and he’s been rocked in both of his last two starts. The other thing to note is that the Rays absolutely thrive in this park. Last season they scored 29 runs in a three-game set here, in ’08 they scored 27 times in a three-game set and in ’07 they scored 24 times. That’s 80 runs over nine games at this park and it’s not likely to stop against Robertson. Matt Garza has struggled a bit recently but there’s no reason for concern. He’s 4-2 on the road with a 2.79 ERA with a BAA of .235. Garza is a quality pitcher with nothing but fire in his desire to compete and to dominate. The Rays are 11-3 on the road vs southpaws and will face one of the most hittable one’s in the business. Play: Florida –1½ +1.06 (Risking 2 units).