LARRY NESS
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
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The Marlins wasted an excellent pitching performance by Josh Johnson on Tuesday, when their bullpen blew a 2-1 lead in the ninth. It was a portend of things to come, as the Marlins were swept at home by the AL West leaders. It was a total team collapse, as the Marlins batted .176, the bullpen posted an ugly 7.88 ERA and the fielders committed four errors. Florida's now lost EIGHT of its last 11 games and the team which entered the 2010 season with the NL's best interleague record, is now 3-6 in IL play this season. The Marlins will be facing a motivated Tampa Bay team this weekend. Tampa Bay is just 9-13 since May 23 and its six-game lead over the Yankees is gone (teams are now tied atop the AL East), plus the Red Sox are just two games back! The Rays lost two of three at home to the Marlins last weekend and followed by losing two of three at NL East-leading Atlanta to open this week. However, the Rays have won SEVEN of their last eight games at Miami in this series, hitting .303 with 15 HRs and outscoring the Marlins 72-24. It's also good news for Tampa fans that they'll face Nate Robertson, who last started on June 5 (4.2 IP / 7 hits / 6 ERs in a 6-1 loss at the Mets). Robertson is 4-5 with a 4.57 ERA this year (team is 5-7 in his starts) and he'll face a Tampa Bay team which is 23-10 on the road, outscoring opponents on average, 5.73-to-3.45 RPG. Matt Garza (7-4, 3.50 ERA) goes for the Rays. He's been less than spectacular lately but has won all three of his previous starts against the Marlins, posting a 2.49 ERA. In comparison, Robertson is 0-4 with a 4.76 ERA in six career starts against Tampa Bay (teams are 2-4). Take the Rays.
WUNDERDOG
Baltimore at San Diego
Pick: UNDER 7
Baltimore is 7-27 on the road this season for a reason - they can't score. This team is averaging just 3.1 runs per game on the road, and they fare slightly worse vs. LHP. The O's are 22-11 UNDER on the road and 14-8 UNDER vs. southpaws this season. They are also 30-14 UNDER in night games. San Diego is no scoring machine either, averaging only 4.3 per game at home. While getting off to a poor start, Brian Matusz has picked things up, posting a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. Wade LeBlanc has been lights-out all season. He's allowed just 11 earned runs in seven home starts and his ERA is just 1.47 in his last three starts. The Pads are 18-4 UNDER as a home favorite of -150 or more the past three seasons. This one has UNDER written all over it and that's where I'm going.
Scott Spreitzer
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Giants at Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays
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San Francisco is a long way from home and a far better home team than road team. Lefty Barry Zito has struggled his last 5 starts, after a strong start to the year, and faces a Toronto offense that is one of the best in the AL. The weak Giants offense has never faced Toronto starter Brandon Morrow, a great strikeout pitcher with a 1.66 ERA his last three starts.
John Ryan
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Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Play: Texas Rangers
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5* graded play on Texas as they take on Houston in MLB inter-league action set to start at 8:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 34-9 for an amazing 79.1% winners since 1997. Play against home dogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities facing an AL opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season. Texas is 23-9 (+14.0 Units) against the money line versus teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season; 16-8 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in road games versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 7 or more hits/start over the last 3 seasons. Texas starter Feldman is a solid 11-3 (+8.9 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons. Texas is the better team and our research shows that they will dominate this game tonight.
Hollywood Sports
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Indians at Pirates
Prediction: Under
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Expect two good pitching performances against these weak offensive lineups. The Indians' Fausto Carmona enters the game with a 5-5 record and a 3.23 ERA. The Pirates' Paul Maholm counters with a 4-4 record and a 3.63 ERA. Both of these pitchers are hot. Over Carmona's last three starts, he has a 1.96 ERA -- while Maholm has a 1.78 ERA in his last four outings. Additionally, both of these pitchers share a very promising deeper sabermetric statistic that bodes well for their respective futures: batting average for line-drives put into play (LD BABIP). Line-drives typically are the result of the batter winning the "hitter-versus-pitcher" battle since the typical goal for a batter is to produce line-drive contact with the baseball. Hitters also have the most control in placing their line-drives (as opposed to groundballs or flyballs) in areas where there is open space for base hits. The MLB average for line-drives that go for base hits is typically in the .715-.730 range. Carmona and Maholm have .651 and .571 LD BABIPs respectively which indicates that batters are having a difficult time dominating at-bats with these hurlers.The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it helps expose a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starters Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like LD BABIP, we can get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which helps produce a more sophisticated perspective regarding evaluating this pitcher's future. Against the weak lineups of the Indians and the Pirates, take the Under while listing both of these pitchers.
TEDDY COVERS
Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Minnesota Twins
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Joe Blanton has been an unmitigated disaster for the Philadelphia Phillies so far this season. He missed the first month of the season recovering from injury, and he’s thrown only two quality starts in eight tries since re-joining the rotation. The veteran righty allowed career highs of nine runs and 13 hits in just four innings of work against Boston last weekend.
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In fact, Blanton has allowed 25 runs in his last four starts. His 7.28 ERA is the third worst among major-league pitchers with at least 40 innings of work, and the Phillies are just 2-6 with Blanton on the mound. Blanton’s quote: “I’ve been pretty horrible.” We certainly shouldn’t forget that the Phillies are a sub .500 team at home over the last month.
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The Phillies are just 3-17 in their last 20 home games against AL foes! Meanwhile, Minnesota has won five consecutive interleague series on the road, a confident team as they arrive at Citizens Bank Ballpark. Their lineup is loaded with big left handed bats, very bad news for a pitcher like Blanton who has been crushed by lefties this year. After struggling against Ubaldo Jimenez last night, look for the Twins bats to come alive here against a much easier pitcher to hit! 2* Take Minnesota.
Derek Mancini
Back to back Free Play winners with the Dodgers Wednesday and White Sox Thursday! But that was nothing compared to my 75 Dime paid play winner on the Celtics last night! Hopefully you all reaped the benefits of both winners, but back to tonight's comp play...
It's funny how fickle fans can be. Up until his terrible start against the Angels, the Dodgers Carlos Monasterios (3-1, 2.98 ERA) was being hailed as a rookie gem. But now, one game removed from getting rocked vs the Halos, bettors are happy to jump to the next phenom, the Red Sox's Feliz Doubront, in this match up. Big mistake.
I've had my eye on Doubront, and while there's no denying his talent, paying this price for a rookie in his Major League debut is out of the question. Its even more ridiculous when you consider how well Monaterios was pitching up until his last start. Got to give Monasterios the benefit of the doubt, he's earned it with solid efforts at Colorado, vs Arizona and St. Louis.
Both teams are playing well, and swinging the bats well, but the Dodgers do have a slight edge in the bullpen (2.34 ERA L42 1/3 innings) and that edge is amplifyed with Doubront making his debut tonight (how long will he go). Both teams have trends in their favor, but LA's 9-3 record coming off a loss stands out the most to me. Not a huge play, but I'm taking the Dodgers (Monasterios) over the Red Sox (Doubront) Friday.
2♦ LA DODGERS
Stephen Nover
I'm on a huge baseball roll going 28-10-1 on my past 39 complementary selections. I've been even better lately on my paid selections. I cashed on the underdog Boston Celtics last night and have won my past eight paid baseball plays, including nailing the Astros two nights ago as a 40-dimer. My paid baseball play for Friday is even stronger than that one.
I like the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter laying 1 1/2 on the run line today against weak-hitting Oakland and overmatched starter Vin Mazzaro as my Friday free play.
Carpenter rarely loses at Busch Stadium with nearly a 79 percent win rate there in his last 52 starts (41-11).
After a good May, the A's are 5-11 this month. They are 12-22 on the road. If you discount a nine-run game against the Cubs, the A's are averaging 2.4 runs in their last five games. They have hit the third fewest homers in the majors.
Carpenter is having another strong year going 7-1 with a 2.66 ERA. His ERA at home this season is 2.16. St. Louis is 24-5 during Carpenter's past 29 home starts against a team with a losing record.
Mazzaro is filling in for injured Brett Anderson. He has a 4.81 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. The A's should be no match for the Cardinals, who are now out of first place in the NL Central and won't lack for motivation.
3♦ CARDINALS -1.5
Karl Garrett
For Friday, heading out to the pacific northwest and laying the home wood with Seattle and Cliff Lee over Cincinnati and Johnny Cueto.
Things haven't gone as rosy for Lee since coming back to the junior circut, but tonight is one of those nights where you can just sense a 6-hit shutout by the quality southpaw.
Lee's last home start was 8 innings of 1 run ball in a no decision against the Twins on June 2nd, and the G-Man feels Lee is ready to build off of that home effort.
Johnny Cueto has been roughed up for 17 runs his last 17 innings of work, and his team has dropped 3 of their last 4, and 6 of their last 10, as Cincy is starting to come back to the pack in the NL Central.
The Mariners get something to smile about tonight, as Lee shuts down the Reds in a big way to open the weekend.
1♦ SEATTLE