Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday June, 22

Marc Lawrence

New York Yankees at New York Mets
Prediction: New York Yankees

When the Yankees meet the Mets at Citi Field Friday evening in this crosstown subway series the Pinstripes will send the born-again arm of Andy Pettitte knowing the Mets are just 5-12 the last 17 games against the left hander. With Pettitte 14-4 in his last 18 team start in June, including 7-1 away, look for the Bronx Bombers to improve to a league-best 11-1 on Fridays here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Yankees.

David Chan

Chicago Cubs @ Diamondbacks
PICK: Diamondbacks

The Cubs' (24-45) Jeff Samardzija (5-5, 4.04 ERA) is set to square off against the Diamondbacks' (34-35) Joe Saunders (4-5, 3.44 ERA) on the mound this evening.

Samardzija looked shaky for a third straight start, unable to make it past the sixth inning once again, giving up three runs off four hits with three walks in just 5 1/3's frames of work vs. the Red Sox last Saturday; he finished with six strikeouts. Samardzija has been particularly ineffective on the road this season, posting a very pedestrian 6.00 ERA in seven starts away from friendly confines.

Saunders was fantastic in his last start, but ended up losing 2-0 to Ervin Santana and the Angels on Saturday; Saunders gave up two runs, off eight hits, with two walks, striking out four.

Arizona has been red hot of late, but especially at Chase Field, winning nine of its last 11.

For this selection, I'll focus mainly on the starting pitching; anyone that's followed me for any length of time knows that "recent performance" plays a part in my repertoire, and that's especially true of starting pitching, and in this case, there is absolutely no question who's been sharper between these two pitchers.

And then when you combine that with the fact that Saunders will be backed by an offense that scored a combined 30 runs off 41 hits in taking two of three from the Mariners over the weekend, in this instance, I feel Arizona is well worth the price of admission!

Jim Feist

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are 8-1 in their last 9 interleague road games and 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. Ace James Shields (7-4, 3.72 ERA) has been sharp and the Rays are 20-7 in their last 27 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter. They face winless Cliff Lee, who has a 4.79 ERA his last three starts. The Phillies are 4-17 in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record and 1-9 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Play the Rays.

Rob Vinciletti

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox

The Sox fit a nice 80% system here that plays on certain home favorites with a total of 8 or less if both teams enter off -140 or higher home favored wins with both teams scoring 5 or more runs in the wins. Chicago has a nice pitching edge as Sale has a solid 2.02 home era and has gone under the radar this season despite being one of the top young lefthanders in the game. He opposes Z. Greinke tonight. Greinke has proven to be a much more dominant pitcher at home than he has on the road. Once again this season he has a 4.96 elevated road era. The Brewers are hitting just .227 on the road and are 2-6 as a road dog in this range. Chicago has won 6 of 8 with a day off and is scoring over 5 runs per game here at home. Look for the White Sox to take game one.

Dave Cokin

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Washington Nationals

I'm big on fading pitchers off no-hitters or one-hitters next time out as it's a great bounce scenario. That's the situation for Jason Hammel tonight. So I'm taking Jordan Zimmermann and the Nationals as road dogs against the Orioles.

SPORTS WAGERS

Chicago +135 over ARIZONA

Joe Saunders saw his ERA double and his record even out to .500 when the Cardinals pasted him for three jacks and six earned runs in 3.1 innings on May 7. Saunders is now 4-5 with a 3.44 ERA but there are trusting signs that suggest his surface stats have further to fall. His xERA is 4.38 and his groundball/flyball ratio is bordering on mediocrity. While it's possible that Saunders is going to put together a respectable year with fewer walks, less home runs and more strikeouts, history tells us not to expect it. He’s delivered some effective month-long stretches in the past only to follow those with disastrous ones. Saunders is the same hittable pitcher that he’s been for years. Jeff Samardzija has 78 K’s and 28 walks in 78 innings. His xERA of 3.38 is much lower than his actual ERA of 4.04. Samardzija's 94.7 mph fastball is second in velocity in the majors just behind Stephen Strasburg. Both of these teams are coming off series wins (Cubs v White Sox, D-Backs v M’s) and both are 5-5 over their past 10 so current form favors neither. However, the pitching matchup favors the Cubbies and the tag adds to their appeal. Play: Chicago +135 (Risking 2 units).

St. Louis +105 over KANSAS CITY

When we think of the Royals we think of a team with decent bats but very little pitching so it might surprise you to learn that the Royals are ranked 25th in the majors in runs scored, 27th in home runs and 20th in OPS. Oddly, when playing at home, their rankings are even worse. The Cardinals road OPS of .749 is the best in the majors and they’ll face Vin Mazzaro, a guy that pitches to contact and offers little. Mazzaro’s ERA of 2.57 has been achieved in just 21 innings so a dramatic correction is forthcoming. He’s walked nine batters while striking out 13. His unsustainable 85% strand rate has helped to mask his deficiencies, which are about to get exposed very soon. Joe Kelly makes just his third start after his first two were somewhat shaky. The surface stats are good (2.89 ERA) but Kelly allowed 14 hits in 9.1 innings and didn’t make it past the fifth in either. However, he only allowed three runs because he has the ability to strike people out and now that he has his feet wet, we expect a better performance here. He has a nasty sinker, outstanding control and a 91-96 MPH fastball. Nothing favors the Royals here, not their bats, not home field, not their pen and not the starters. Play: St. Louis +105 (Risking 2 units).

San Francisco +112 over OAKLAND

This line is simply ridiculous. Jarrod Parker favored over Tim Lincecum is completely incorrect and we plan on taking full advantage. While Lincecum’s struggles are well documented, his ERA of 6.19 is not indicative of his true skill level. In 77 innings, he’s walked 41 but we’re seeing an improvement there, as he’s walked just three in his last two road games covering 12 frames. His strand rate of 60% is out of whack too. Lincecum has an elite strikeout rate (83 in 77 IP) and faces an A’s team with the league’s worst batting average of .225. Current Oakland batters have a BA of .214 in 98 career AB’s against Lincecum. Jarrod Parker’s walk totals are just as poor with 30 walks issued in 61 frames. The difference is that Parker has a misleading 2.82 ERA but an xERA of 4.36 strongly suggests those walks are going to eventually catch up to him. Parker has upside but too much hard contact (line-drive rate of 27%) and too many walks indicate his stats are bound for regression. Play: San Francisco +112 (Risking 2 units).

Bryan Leonard

Chicago White Sox -130

Zach Grienke has a much stronger track record at home than on the road since joining the Brewers. Milwaukee teed off on an injured Toronto pitching staff, but we doubt they will have the same success here. The White Sox have won 7 of 10 qualifying starts by Chris Sale according to our True Wins numbers. He was lit up last time out but before that the opposition managed just 5 total runs in his last 5 starts. With the White Sox having a True Runs Record of 28-21 on the year and the Brewers sitting at 18-30, it's a bargain to take the Sox at home at this price.

GoodFella

Baltimore -120

First off we've got a rested team in the Orioles that definitely needed the rest after getting swept by the Mets, and they have their #1 stater take the ball tonight, who's been beast-like. He shut out the Braves in Atlanta one HIT and now faces a tired Nationals team that played a tough series against the Rays, concluding late last night. Zimmerman CAN be a stud, but he's thrown quite a few pitches the last two outings and his flyball ratio has started to increase a bit of late. That could be a dangerous combination against an Oriole team that averages well over a run a game more at Camden Yards than at home, and an Oriole team that for the first time in forever has a very good bullpen. This is simply a cheap price on an undervalued home team that's been laying in wait for their cross-town rivals & my money is on the ORIOLES tonight.

Jimmy Boyd

Pittsburgh Pirates +105

The Pirates are an impressive 21-12 at home, and I expect their home success to continue with A.J. Burnett on the bump. Burnett struggled in the American League while pitching for the Yankees but has looked right at home back in the NL. He is 4-0 (6-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.27 in 6 home starts this season. The Pirates are 8-0 in his last 8 starts. Burnett has also had some success against the Tigers, going 6-1 on the ML in his last 7 starts against them while holding them to 3 earned runs or less in 6 of those outings. Doug Fister has been decent on the road but not good enough as he is 0-2 (0-4 on the ML) with an ERA of 3.28. The Tigers have dropped 4 of their last 5 in Pittsburgh. We'll bet the Bucs.

Jack Jones

Baltimore Orioles -120

A match-up between two of the most surprising teams in baseball takes place tonight as the Washington Nationals travel to face the Baltimore Orioles in Game 1 of this interleague series. I'm siding with the home team to get a victory tonight.

Jason Hammel is one of the most underrated starters in the game. Hammel is 7-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in five home starts.

Hammel has never lost to the Nationals, going 4-0 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.226 WHIP in six career starts against them. The Orioles are 5-1 in their last 6 home meetings with Washington as well.

The Orioles are 10-1 in their last 11 games following an off day and 5-0 in their last 5 home games. The Nationals are 17-35 in their last 52 interleague games as an underdog. Baltimore is 10-3 in Hammel's 13 starts this season. Bet the Orioles Friday.

Dave Price

Houston Astros +122

The Astros, who are a strong 19-16 at home, are showing value at this price with Harrell on the hill. He's 4-0 with an ERA of 2.76 at home on the season. Cleveland's Jimenez can't be trusted on the road where he's 3-3 with a 6.21 ERA and a WHIP of 1.938. The Indians have lost 4 of their last 5 on the road and are only 9-24 in their last 33 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Astros.

Chris Elliott

Braves @ Red Sox
PICK: Over 10.5

The Atlanta Braves will send struggling right hander Jair Jurrjens to the mound on Thursday night to try and turn his season around. Jurrjens had a brilliant start to the 2011 season, leading the league in ERA at the All Star break and challenging Roy Halladay for starting pitcher in the All Star Game. Jurrjens has struggled with injuries and inconsistency since. He has a record of 0-2 this year with a lofty 9.37 ERA, a 2.45 WHIP, and the league is hitting an outrageous .411 against him. He has given up 5 homeruns in just 16.1 innings of work this year. Jurrjens was sent down to AAA after his awful start to the season. In 10 starts in the minors, Jurrjens had a 3-4 record and an unimpressive 5.18 ERA. It scary to think what the Red Sox line up could do to a chucker with stats like that!

The Red Sox will have 28 year old lefty Jon Lester on the hill for the opener of this 3 game set with the Braves. Lester is 4-4 on the year with an ERA of 4.53, a WHIP of 1.35, and a BAA of .272. In his last 5 starts he has a record of 1-1 and has given up 18 runs in 30.1 innings for an ERA of 5.39. 5 of the 7 starts Lester has made at Fenway Park this season have gone “Over” the line. Against lefties, the Braves have hit the "Over" 15-11.

The Braves offense has been much better recently on the road than at home. In their last 6 road games, Atlanta has scored 37 runs, good for over a 6 run per game average. Jason Heyward (.381 2HR 4RBI) and rookie Andrelton Simmons (.381 1HR 4RBI) have been the Braves 2 best hitters over the last 7 days. Freddie Freeman was back in the line up last time out and hit a HR in his first at bat! Look for Freeman to help spark the Braves offense that had sputtered with him on the shelf.

The Red Sox have had little trouble scoring runs all season and they shouldn’t have much trouble plating runs against Jurrjens. David Ortiz has been crushing the ball over the past 5 games for the Red Sox, hitting .389 with 3 homeruns and 8 RBI. The team has been red hot scoring 35 runs in their last 4 games, that`s just under a 9 a game average!

Wunderdog

Toronto at Miami
Pick: Toronto +110

The Miami Marlins thought they had everything in place this season to win a World Series Championship. They opened a new stadium, revamped their pitching, and added a few hitters to bolster the attack. None of it has worked so far as they are a below .500 team at home and overall, and are currently playing their worst baseball of the season at 2-13 over their last 15 games. They have given up 101 runs over the 15-game stretch or nearly 7 per contest, while they have not produced more than 5 in any of the 15 games. It’s needless to say things have been bad all around. The Jays start Ricky Romero and he always manages to keep them in games, as the Jays stand at 21-6 in his last 27 starts, including 9-1 vs. a team with a losing record on the season. The Marlins are now just 1-10 in their last 11 vs. a winning team, and have been destroyed by the AL East where they are 2-14 in their last 16. Play on Toronto.

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Boston/ Atlanta Over 10.5: Thanks to an injury to Brandon Beachy, Jair Jurrgens has been recalled and he should allow the Sox to put up some big numbers here. Jair was sent down to the minors after 4 starts that saw him go 0-2 with a 9.37 ERA, but he also struggled down in the minors as well, going 3-4 with a 5.18 ERA in his 10 starts down there. Now he comes back to the major league level to face a Boston offense that is rolling. Not good for Jair, but good for us. Boston has scored 35 runs in their last 4 games, while they have hit .306 and have scored 7 rpg in their last 7 games overall. At home Boston has hit .271 and put up 5.4 rpg. Boston's pitching has suffered some at home as they have gotten a 5.18 ERA from their starters at home this year and Jon Lester has been a big contributor to that as he has a 5.98 ERA in his 7 home starts. As a team, Boston has allowed 5.06 rpg at home, but 6.86 rpg in Lester's home starts and those home starts have averaged 11.4 rpg. The Braves offense had been in a terrible slump but then on Wednesday they pounded out 5 HR's and put 10 runs on the board. This is still a team that has put up 4.6 rpg on the road and they should be able to get to Lester for a bunch in this one. Even if the Braves get just 4 runs in this one, their is no way the Sox don't get at least 7 combined vs Jair and a bullpen that has a 5.35 ERA in it's last 10 games. the Humidity might not be there for this one, but it should still be a fun game with at least 13 runs put up.

3 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

ARIZONA -143 over Chicago (NL): Not a good spot for the Cubs as they have been terrible on the road when facing a left hander.They are now 5-22 in their last 27 road games vs a lefty starter, including 1-9 this year. They have hit lefties at a .198 clip and have scored just 2.19 rp/9 off of them on the road. They do get to face a lefty, who has struggled some at home this year. Joe Saunders is just 3-4 with a high 5.01 ERA at home on the year, but he has pitched very well in his last 2 home starts, going 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA. Overall he has a nice 2.89 ERA in his last 3 starts and should hold down the Cubs in this one. Offensively the D-Backs have exploded as they are off a home series with the Mariners and put 30 runs on the board in the 3 game set. For the year the D-Backs have hit .276 and scored 5.09 rpg at home. Jeff Samardzija has been okay for the Cubs, with a 5-5 mark and a 4.04 ERA, including 2-3 with a 6.00 ERA on the road. His road ERA is inflated a bit due rto his last road start in which he allowed 8 ER's in 3.2 innings at Minnesota. For the most part he has pitched well on the rpoad, but still the Cubs can't hit lefties on the road, Saunders is starting pitch well at home and Chicago is also off a tough series with their cross town rival. A lot going against Chicago in this one and that should have the D-Back taking game one of this series and we get a booster shot from the Angle below. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2008, the D-Backs are 24-4 as a home favorite of 140 or more in the first game of a home series.

BALTIMORE -120 over Washington: The Orioles are off a tough series with the Mets, in which they were swept and shutout in 2 of those games, but they are at home for this one where they have played well this year. The O's are 19-14 at home and have averaged 5.03 rpg at Camden Yards this year. In their last 6 games here they have gone 5-1 and have averaged 7.3 rpg in those games. In their last 3 at home they took on a Pittsburgh staff that has been very good this year, yet the O's tagged Pitt for 27 runs in the 3 games. Tonight they take on another tough staff in the Nats, that has allowed just 3.3 rpg on the year, but in their last 6 they have given up almost a rpg more (4.2). Jordan Zimmerman is 3-5 with a 2.92 ERA, but he comes in struggling with an 0-2 mark and a 3.89 ERA in his last 6 starts. For the O's Jason Hammel has not struggled at all this year. He is 7-2 with a 2.87 ERA overall, while at home he is a perfect 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA. The O's are 10-3 overall in his starts and 4-1 in his home starts and he should be able to hold down a Nats offense that has struggled for most of the year, averaging just 3.9 rpg. Washington has lost 4 of their last 6 games, while Baltimore looks to get back on track after a horrible series in New York. O's take game 1 here.

Oakland/ San Francisco Over 7: Tim Lincecum has struggled all year and i expect that to continue here, especially vs an Oakland offense that has taken off of late. Tim has a 6.19 ERA overall, with his starts averaging 9.4 rpg, while on the road he has an 8.14 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP, with his road starts averaging 12 rpg. The A's offense has been rolling of late as they have averaged 6 rpg in their last 9 games and while they do average just 3.6 rpg at home, they have put up 5.2 rpg in Jarod Parker's home starts on the year. Jarod has been solid at home, with a 1.59 ERA and he has allowed 0 ER's in 3 of his last 4 starts, but he was tagged for 6 ER's in just 2 innings in an earlier matchup vs the Giants and San Fran is a team that hits much better on the road than at home. At home the Giants hit .255 and score 3.3 rpg, but on the road they have hit .269 and put up 4.6 rpg. The Giants should be good for at least 3 in this one, while the A's should put up at least 4 of their own vs a struggling Tim. I really don't see a push here as I expect at least 9 runs in this one, but still a push is better than a loss and at the very least i expect 7 runs to be put up.