EZWINNERS
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Atlanta Braves -$160
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Kris Medlen has pitched very well for Atlanta and he will be pitching to stay in the Braves starting rotation in this game. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Braves manager Bobby Cox said that starting pitcher Kenshin Kawakami will make one more start before deciding whether or not he or Kris Medlen will move to the bullpen with Jair Jurrjens expected back from the DL in the near future. Medlen has easily outpitched Kawakami this season posting a 3-0 record with an ERA of 3.67 in eight starts this season and I expect another solid outing in this game. Andrew Oliver will be recalled from AA to make this start for the Tigers. Oliver has a lot of potential, but this will be a tough task on the road against one of the best home teams in baseball. The Braves are 21-5 in their last twenty six home games and I expect their winning ways to continue. Play on Atlanta.
SPORTS WAGERS
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CHICAGO –1½ +1.55 over Chicago
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There are lots of reasons to wager on the South Side here and there are no reasons to wager on the Cubbies. The South Side is red-hot with nine wins in a row and that includes a just completed three-game sweep over the then red-hot Braves. The Cubbies are coming off a series loss in Seattle in which they scored four times in three games. The Cubbies have just eight wins in its last 22 games and things surely don’t figure to get better here. Jake Peavy (78 BPV, PQS-3-3-4-5-5) has returned to prominence over the last 31 days with a 3.78 xERA, great command and a 104 BPV. Peavy was a dominant pitcher in the NL and he’s manhandled the Cubs over his career with a 2.72 ERA in nine lifetime starts. Carlos Zambrano is all over the map. He’s walking batters, he’s always in jams and he’s giving up way too many hits. His road ERA is 6.91 and in six lifetime starts at US Cellular Field, Zambrano has an ERA of 4.97 and that’s when he was great. He’s no longer in that category, as his skills have been on the decline for over two years now and they’re not getting better. Play: Chicago –1½ +1.55 (Risking 2 units).
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L.A. Angels –1½ +1.42 over COLORADO
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After an exciting three-game set against the Red Sox in which all three games were very close right up to the final AB, the Rocks could suffer a major letdown in game one here. Colorado’s first problem is facing Jered Weaver. Weaver (139 BPV, PQS-5-5-4-5-5) is in the midst of an amazing run, capped off by a 7-inning, 2-hit, 11-strikeout outing last weekend. He’s now averaging 10.2 strikeouts per game in 2010 and that bodes well here against a Rockies team that already has three guys with over 50 strikeouts. At home Weaver has a 1.85 ERA and over his last three home starts he’s allowed one lousy earned run in 20 frames. Weaver has pitched his last four games on the road so you know he’ll be excited to be back at home. Jeff Francis has an impressive ERA since returning from his injury but don’t be fooled. He’s been anything but dominant and it just hasn’t shown up in his stats yet. His last game he was hit hard by the Brewers but only allowed three earned runs in 6.1 innings. In three prior starts he faced the offensively challenged Blue Jays, Giants and Astros, yet Francis still allowed eight runs in 19 innings. He has a BAA of .290 and that’s after facing some weak opposition. His BAA on the road is .302 so you can’t blame Coors for that. A big correction is coming for Francis and the bet is that it occurs here. Play: L.A. Angels –1½ +1.42 (Risking 2 units).
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Minnesota +1.22 over NY METS
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Does this line make sense at all? The oddsmakers do not make errors and you can double that when the game involves a New York based team so let’s see if we have this right. The Mets have won 14 of 16 games. The Twins have lost 5 of 7 and were just swept in Milwaukee. Mike Pelfrey is 9-2 with a 2.67 ERA and at home he’s 5-0 with a 1.87 ERA. Kevin Slowey is 0-1 with a 10.50 ERA in three interleague starts this season and his ERA over his last three starts is 8.10. Pelfrey’s BAA is 50 points lower than Slowey’s and Slowey has allowed 12 earned runs in his last two starts. It’s not easy to make a case for the Twinkies here and an attempt is not forthcoming. This choice is based on the fact that the oddsmakers made the Mets about as enticing as any game this season and it’s recommended that you wait until later in the day to make this wager, as this line will do exactly what it’s intended to do and that’s attract Met backers. Play: Minnesota +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
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KANSAS CITY –1½ +1.46 over St. Louis
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Frankly, I feel sick about not going against the Cardinals yesterday but what’s done is done. It’s worth reiterating that the Cardinals continue to be the most overvalued team in the business with an offense that scares nobody and a bullpen that is made up of guys picked up off the scrap heap. Enter Jeff Suppan, another scrap heap pitcher that Dave Duncan is going to try and work miracles with but not even Chris Angel could make this illusion work. Suppan has not made it out of the fifth inning in either of his first two starts for the Cards and the five home runs surrendered in his 4 starts this season (18 IP) continue to be problematic. Suppan’s opponent BAA is .353 and the Royals BA is tops in the AL at .280. Also note that the Royals had a day off yesterday after becoming the first team to beat Stephen Strasburgh so they have to be feeling pretty good. Zack Greinke (114 BPV, 3-4-3-4-5) has retained the skills if not the results from his Cy Young season. He'll look to continue a fantastic run in June (167 BPV) against a Cardinals team that scored one run combined in the final two games in Toronto. This is by far the biggest pitching mismatch of the day and finally Greinke can count on a ton of run support here. Play: Kansas City –1½ +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
Larry Ness
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St Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
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Jeff Suppan never met expectations in Milwaukee and the 2010 season was a particular disappointment. He bean the year allowing 16 hits and nine ERs over 9.1 innings of two starts (0-2) and was banished to the bullpen. He made 13 relief appearances with NO success (21.2 IP / 34 hits / 18 ERs / 7.48 ERA). No wonder the Brewers released him. To the rescue came the StL Cards. St Louis needs help, as while Carpenter, Wainwright and rookie Garcia have been excellent, Penny's out with back problems (possibly through the All Star break) and Lohse is on the 60-day DL with forearm issues which have plagued him for awhile now. The three starters the Cards have used to fill in for those two pitchers (Ottavino, Walters and Hawksworth) have gone a combined 1-3 with an 8.23 ERA in six starts. So why not take a chance on Suppan? Here's a guy who went 16-9 and 16-10 for the Cards in 2004 and 2005, before going 12-7 in 2006. He then came up big in the 2006 postseason. He lost his first start 3-1 in San Diego but then saw the Cards win his final three starts, while posting a 1.71 ERA. Suppan was named the MVP of the NLCS and started Game 4 of the World Series vs Detroit (got a no decision in a 5-4 StL win). He hasn't made a start for the Cards since October of 2006 but the Cards are hoping he can rediscover his success after being reunited with pitching coach Dave Duncan, who is known as a "miracle worker." Suppan has made two starts with the Cards in June, both times getting no decisions. He lasted just four innings in his first outing (4 hits / 1 ER) and 4.2 in his second (7 hits / 2 ERs). Clearly not great efforts but surely an improvement. Suppan gets the start tonight, as the Cards open a three-game series in KC. The Cardinals have dominated "the I-70 Series" in recent years, winning SEVEN of the last eight series while going 18-6 in Kansas City since 2002. This is the first time since 2005 the rivals are playing only one series. Zach Greinke goes for the Royals and it's been a 'nightmare' season for the man who won last year's Cy Young award in the AL. Greinke's 2-8 (3.94 ERA) overall, with the Royals going an abysmal 3-12 in his 15 starts. At minus-$1,111 vs the moneyline, he's MLB biggest "money burner" among starting pitchers. I might add that while Greinkle went 16-8 (2.16 ERA) in 2009, the Royals were a losing proposition on the year as well, going 17-16 in his starts (minus-$433!). Take the Cards.
Ben Burns
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
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This is a tough scheduling spot for Colorado. Last night, the Rockies played a wild game vs. the Red Sox, one which saw 14 pitchers used and which took 4 hours and 48 minutes. The game was an emotional one, which saw several lead changes. The Rockies erased a deficit in the bottom of the 9th inning, rallying off Papplebon for the second consecutive day. The Rockies very nearly won it in the bottom of the 9th, too. They came up short in the end though, eventually losing in the 10th. That type of loss can be emotionally draining.
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Boston's Dustin Pedroia was quoted as saying: "That was a crazy game. It was mentally draining. I'm just happy we won."
Having lost that "mentally draining" marathon, the Rockies figure to be rather "tired" here. That won't make things any easier against LA's Jered Weaver.
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Weaver is 7-3 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.109 WHIP through 15 starts. That includes an outstanding 1.85 ERA (1.077 WHIP) in his six home starts. In 94 2/3 innings this season, he's recorded an impressive 107 K's with just 23 walks.
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Even with a loss yesterday, the Angels are still a profitable 33-18 (+13.1) in Interleague play, the past few seasons. That includes a 2-1 mark vs. the Rockies. With Weaver on the mound (and catching Colorado off last night's tough loss) the Angels have a great shot at improving on those stats here. Consider LA
Jack Jones
Colorado Rockies +146
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I'll take the value here Friday with the Rockies behind Jeff Francis. The lefty has been solid since returning from injury, going 2-2 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 7 starts this season. He has only walked 8 batters while serving up just 2 home runs in 44.2 innings this year. Francis has posted a 2.70 ERA in his career vs. the Angels as well. Home field hasn't been all that big of an advantage for the Angels this season at 19-16, where they are hitting .254 and scoring just 4.2 RPG. L.A. has actually played better away from home.
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The Rockies are 19-8 in interleague games over the last 2 seasons, and they just took two out of three from the Boston Red Sox. Colorado is a perfect 9-0 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 2 seasons. The Rockies are also a perfect 9-0 against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons. They have proven they can hit the best pitchers in the American League, and they have also thrived on AL teams with poor batting averages. The Angels are just 1-5 in starter Jared Weaver's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Rockies Friday.
John Ryan
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers -1.5
3* graded play on Texas on the Run Line as they take on Houston in inter-league action set to start at 8:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Houston will pull of the massive upset winner. No doubt Texas is the hottest team in baseball. We stated several times before the beginning of the season that was a dark horse to advance to the World Series and has a solid chance of winning the whole thing. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 62-5 for 93% winners since 2004. Play against all dogs with a money line of +175 to +250 and is a cold hitting team batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher posting a WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. Although, a money lie system, it is one that is certainly worth of your attention and to bet of future games as they qualify. Now for the run line system that has hit 75% winners for a 45-15 mark and made 27.8 units since 2004. Play against all dogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+110 to +155) with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher posting a WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. The last time Colby Lewis pitched against Houston was on June 19th and he pitched a complete game 1 ER, 2 hit shutout, walking ZERO and striking out 9. Take Texas.
Info Plays
3* on Texas Rangers -270
Reasons the Rangers win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (HOUSTON) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. This is a 51-3 Money Line System hitting 94.4% over the last 5 seasons. This system is 6-1 this season.
2.) The Rangers are 11-0 in their last 11 games. The winning streak continues tonight behind Colby Lewis, who is 7-4 with a 3.07 ERA this season and 4-0 with a 2.70 ERA in home starts. Brian Moehler is 0-4 with a 5.86 ERA and 1.651 WHIP this season for Houston, including 0-2 with a 10.12 ERA and 2.399 WHIP in three road starts. Texas is 3-0 vs. Houston this season and 11-4 in their last 15 meetings over the past 3 seasons. Bet the red hot Rangers at home.
Black Widow
1* on Los Angeles Dodgers +1.5 -110
We'll take the Dodgers on the Run Line Friday. No doubt this team is going to be hungry to win one for the skpper as Joe Torre faces his former team in the New York Yankees. C.C. Sabathia goes for New York, but he has been unimpressive on the road this season with a 3-3 record and 4.73 ERA away from home. The Dodgers are a solid 23-13 at home this season and will be a very tough out for the Yankees in this series. Vicenta Padilla is 15-6 (+16.1 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 3 seasons. His teams are actually winning these games by an average of 1.3 runs/game. You can feel free to take the Dodgers on the Money Line in this one if you want at around +150, but we'll take the extra run and grab L.A. on the Run Line Friday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Oakland A's -174
The A's are 6-0 lifetime against the Bucs in interleague play, and I look for them to stay perfect tonight. Pittsburgh is just 8-43 in its last 51 interleague road games and the Athletics are 25-6 in their last 31 interleague games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Pittsburgh is also 1-13 as a road underdog of +150 to +175 this season, losing these games by an average score of 2.3 to 7.2. Take the A's at home.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals +141
Greinke is still being overvalued despite the fact that he is just 3-12 on the money line this season and 1-5 on the money line at home. In addition, Greinke is 0-8 on the money line in night games this season and 0-7 on the money line after a win this season. Plus, the Cards have won 5 of the last 6 in Kansas City and 7 of the last 8 meetings overall. The Cardinals are 7-3 in Suppan's last 10 starts as a road underdog. I expect him to go deeper tonight, and the Cards' solid pen will be ready to close the door when his time is up. Just feel St. Louis is showing good value here consider Greinke hasn't had his A+ stuff this season.