Ross Benjamin
Houston Astros +123
In spite of the huge disparity in these two clubs payrolls the Astros have won 7 of 10 from the Angels this season. The Houston starter Bud Norris has been dominant in 3 starts this season versus the Angels posting a microscopic 0.43 ERA. Norris has been consistently strong at home over the last 3 seasons and has posted a stellar 2.67 ERA in 9 starts this year at Minute Maid Park.
Play against any road team of +125 to -125 on the money line when they're revenging a home favorite of -150 or more loss, and they have a winning percentage of .380 to .460 on the season. By playing the home team in this exact situation you would be 41-14 (74.5%) since the start of the 1997 season. Play on the Houston Astros as a 2* selection.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Texas/ Cincinnati Under 9.5: I will be looking to take the Under in this one. Both offenses come in struggling, as the Reds have scored just 2.9 rpg in their last 10 games, while the Rangers have put up just 3.8 rpg in their last 5 games. It won't get easier for the Offenses tonight as they will be facing a couple of solid starters. Johnny Cueto is off a very bad start at Arizona, as he allowed 7 ER's in just 4.1 innings of work, but in his 7 other starts this year he had allowed just 10 total ER's. I expect him to bounceback off that bad outing. Martin Perez is making just his third start of the year and he has been solid in his first 2, allowing just 5 ER's in 12.1 innings of work. He will be facing a Reds team tat struggles vs lefties on the road, hitting just .227 and scoring 3.14 rp/9 off of them away from home. This one has the makings of a low scoring game.
ATLANTA -166 over Arizona: The Braves are a pretty dominant home team, winning 37 of heir last 51 overall here, including 25 of 36 this year. The Braves are also 38-14 in their last 52 home games vs a righty and 21-7 in their at 28 games off an off day. On the other side we have a diamondbacks squad tat is just 18-44 in their last 62 road games as a dog of +151 to +200 and 1-6 in their last 7 games played here. Tonight the Braves send out Julio Teheran and he has been very good at home, going 3-1 with a 2.52 ERA and the Braves have gone 5-1 in his home starts. Randall Delgado mae 14 starts in this park as a member of the Braves and while he has a decent 3.71 ERA in those starts, he is 2-6 in this park. Both offenses are struggling right now, but the Braves are at home and have the edge on the mound. I look for them to take game 1 here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia/ Dodgers Over 8: Capuano has an 8.31 ERA at home, while John Lannan has a 5.84 ERA overall and an 8.22 ERA on the road. The Phils offense is healthy and waking up, while the Dodgers offense are also starting to score some runs. At least 10 should be scored in this one.
LA Angels -130 over HOUSTON: This game should be rated higher, but with LA off a big 3 game sweep of the Tigers they may be a bit flat. I don't think they can afford to be flat as they have a lot of ground to make up. This is a big reveng series for the Halos and with the team starting to play much better I will take them in this spot.
Toronto -105 over BOSTON: Toronto lost 7-4 last night but the gave away all 7 run in just one inning and held Boston Scoreless the other 7. Josh Johnson is starting to pitch very well, while Allen Webster is horrible. Look for the Jays to pick up a nice road win here.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Seattle/ Chicago Under 7: Neither offense is any good and there is solid pitching on the mound. Iwakuma has a 1.46 ERA at home and his home starts have averaged 6.38 rpg. Wood has a solid 3.46 ERA on the road and his road starts have averaged just 6.6 rpg. The Under is 7-1-1 the last 9 meetings and 9-1-1 in Wood's ast 11 starts on grass. Should be around 5 runs scored here.
Washington +140 over NY METS: The Mets are off a long trip and played in Colorado just yesterday. Big situational spot for the Nats here. The Mets hit just .194 at home vs lefties and I see Washington getting to Harvey for a few here. Nats are a live dog in this one.
Kansas City -136 over TAMPA BAY Hmmmm Shields vs Walters? Give me Shields any day in that matchup. Look for KC to bounceback with a nice win here.
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Colorado Rockies, minus the money against the defending World Series champion San Francisco Giants. And go ahead and list both Colorado's Jhoulys Chacin and San Fran's Barry Zito, as I think this is a pitching mismatch.
Let's start with Zito, the aging veteran who at times can be a handful, but other times shows his age. Zito has struggled mightily away from AT&T Park, as he's 0-4 with an 11.28 ERA with a suitcase in hand in 2013. And even though he's seemingly done well at Coors Field well in his career, posting a 3.70 ERA in nine starts, this season he's already allowed five runs on 11 hits in 5 2/3 innings there in May.
On the other hand, there's Chacin, who is in after firing seven scoreless innings with five hits and three strikeouts while beating the Nationals in his last trip to the mound. The right-hander, who is 6-3 on the season, has a 1.74 ERA while winning his last three starts.
Take the Rockies and list both in this one.
2♦ WASHINGTON
Brett Atkins
My free play for tonight is on the Miami Marlins, as I have no problem laying the chalk against the visiting San Diego Padres, who have seemed to stumble a bit since a recent surge pushed them upward in the National League West standings. The Friars, who have lost two straight and six of 10, are just 14-22 on the road this season.
With the Fish, they may be the worst team in baseball and they may be halfway to 100 losses, but they've won three straight and seven of 10. Now they catch a Padres team that finished up a homestand Wednesday, traveled to the Southeast and now have to deal with not only a feisty Marlins team, but the humidity of Miami.
Take the home team and lay the low chalk.
2♦ MIAMI
Scott Delaney
I know, I know... Max Scherzer is up for the American League Central-leading Detroit Tigers. But there's something about his win streak this season that falls more under the due theory than Tampa Bay's Alex Colome. So with Scherzer boasting an 11-0 mark and 3.05 ERA, I think this might be the time to look for his first loss.
I know Scherzer would be the first starter to win his first 12 decisions to begin a season since Roger Clemens in 1986, but I like the value with Colome, who has not allowed an earned run in his first two Major League starts - a win against the Marlins and a no-decision against the Yankees.
Now the 24-year-old, right-hander will be making his first career appearance at Tropicana Field, and with the hype of the crowd behind him, and the challenge of facing Scherzer, I'm taking a shot with the home underdog.
2♦ TAMPA BAY
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the St. Louis Cardinals in their series opener against Oakland.
This should be a fun series if you like pitching because the Cardinals and Oakland A's have gotten where they're at right now with solid starting and bullpen pitching.
Oakland has lost their lead in the AL West but still find themselves right on the heels of the Texas Rangers in the division.
The A's held a two-game division lead two weeks ago over the Rangers, but have gone 5-7 since that lead which finds them now 1/2 game behind Texas for the division lead.
In his last outing, Bartolo Colon (today's starter) allowed a three-run homer and six other hits over eight innings but the A's still gave him some run support in a 6-3 victory at Seattle.
He's looking for his 8th straight win... but no A's pitcher has won eight consecutive starts since Barry Zito did it back in 2005.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, are looking to get back to their consistent winning ways and would like to break free from the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are tied atop the division with them.
Shelby Miller (8-5, 2.35) will get another shot to win his 9th game and has had solid success as a rookie this year. In fact, he leads all rookies in wins and strikeouts (101).
Miller, to me, is in a better situation with a better squad behind him and that's why I'm giving them to you as your free play of the day.
1♦ ST. LOUIS