Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday June, 29

Scott Spreitzer

Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Boston Red Sox

We played the Under in last night's clash at SAFECO and were treated to a 1-0, easy win. After being shutout last night, I expect Boston to get right back in the win column on Friday. Aaron Cook got rocked in his season opener on May 5, but bounced back with a decent effort last time out (June 24) against the Atlanta Braves. Cook has never faced Seattle in 240 career appearances, but I suspect he'll find SAFECO to his liking. Going into this series, SAFECO Field was last in the league in several key offensive categories, including ballpark batting average (.213), OPS (.599), combined rpg (6.41), and slugging (.317). Last night's 1-run total fell right in line. And Cook will face a lineup that plates about 3 rpg at home against righthanders. Seattle counters with Hector Noesi, who owns decent numbers at home this season, but faces a stern test against a Boston hit-squad that came into this series averaging 5.7 rpg in road night games against righties. Boston is on a 9-3 run overall, and they're on a 4-0 run following a loss. Meanwhile, the Mariners are on a 1-6 slide as a home dog. I'm recommending a play on the Red Sox on Friday.

Rob Vinciletti

Royals vs. Twins
Play: Over 9.5

The Twins have flown over in 13 of 15 as a favorite in game one of a series if they lost their last game and it was a day game where they trailed the whole game. The Twins have played over all 4 times off a game where they allowed 10 or more runs and 7 of 9 over after a day off. KC is averaging 5.3 runs the past week and have gone over in 4 of the last 6 off 3 or more wins. Tonight they have L. Mendoza and he has a 5.17 era this year. He Opposes B. Duensing who has a 3.82 era and is making just his 2nd start of the season. The First one did not go well as he was pulled after allowing 4 runs in 3 innings. Look for this one to go over the total.

Marc Lawrence

Reds @ Giants
PICK: Giants

The Giants and Reds meet in Game Two of this four-game series at AT&T Park where Matt Cain looks to improve his winning ways Friday evening. Cain toes the slab in commanding KW form with 34 strikeouts and 7 walks in his last seven starts knowing he is 9-1 with a 1.27 ERA in his last 10 team starts during the month of June. With that look for the Giants to improve to 9-1 in Cain's last 10 home starts here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Francisco.

Bryan Power

Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

Though he hasn't been pitching well of late, Cliff Lee is bound to win a game sooner or later. Off back to back losses, the Phillies take the field Friday in Miami where they'll face a Marlins team desperate for June to come to an end. The home team has dropped 18 of 24 games this month, including 8 of 10.

Josh Johnson opposes Lee in the series opener. He's already been beaten up by the Phillies once this season, allowing six runs and 11 hits in less than four innings of work. Lee had a 3-0 team start record vs. the Marlins last season, including two complete games. Miami has been ineffective vs. lefties to say the least, scoring less than four runs per game and batting .230.

Like I said at the outset, Lee HAS to win sooner or later. Why not here?

Jack Jones

Texas Rangers -1.5 (-106)

The Texas Rangers have won 14 of their last 17 to get to 48-29 on the season. This team is playing their best baseball of the year, and I am very confident they'll beat the Oakland A's by at least two runs tonight behind red-hot starter Matt Harrison.

Harrison is 6-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his last seven starts, and the Rangers are a perfect 7-0 in those seven games, winning five times by two runs or more. The left-hander has only allowed one earned run over 27 1/3 innings in his last four starts, posting a miniscule 0.33 ERA over that span.

Oakland is only hitting .224 and scoring 3.7 runs/game on the road this season, while the Rangers are hitting .289 and scoring 5.7 runs/game at home. The A's are also hitting just .217 against left-handed starters in 2012.

Harrison is 12-2 against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in his career, and the Rangers are winning in these spots 6.6 to 3.2 on average. The A's are 2-10 in their last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter. Texas is 15-3 in Harrison's last 18 home starts vs. a team with a losing record, and 22-5 in his last 27 starts as a favorite. Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Friday.

Jim Feist

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh is in a pennant race with great pitching and they've already beaten St. Louis ace Adam Wainwright this season, who has a 5.14 ERA against them. The Pirates are 11-3 in their last 14 vs. the National League Central. Pittsburgh goes with Kevin Correia, who has good stuff walking 23 in 80+ innings and 80 hits allowed. He has a 3.12 ERA his alst three starts. Cardinals are 6-15 in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record and 1-8 in Wainwright's last 9 starts with 5 days of rest. Play the Pirates.

Ben Burns

Red Sox @ Mariners
PICK: Over

Yesterday's series opener resulted in a pitcher's duel; Seattle won by a score of 1-0. Tonight's game figures to be higher-scoring.

Cook has made just two starts this season. Both have finished above the total. Each has produced double-digits in runs. While it's a small sample size, he's got a terrible 9.39 ERA and 1.956 WHIP in those games.

Although he has admttedly pitched better here in the Pacific Northwest, Noesi still checks in at an ugly 2-9 with a poor 5.50 ERA.

The 'over' is 2-1 when Boston was off a shutout loss and 3-1 when Seattle was off a shutout win. Even after last night, Boston games are still averaging nearly 10 runs (9.7) per game. Consider the Over.

WUNDERDOG

Kansas City at Minnesota
Pick: Kansas City

The Tampa Bay Rays were swept in Kansas City, and their coach said it all. He addressed the media in the post-game interview by saying Kansas City is much better than their record, and could win the AL Central. I agree with both. The Royals had a painful 12-game losing streak early in the season, but have otherwise been 34-27 on the season. They are 10-5 in their last 15 games and are riding a three-game winning streak where they have beaten opponents by a combined 21-6 count. The Twins turn to Brian Duensing who pitched decent out of the pen, but his first start was a disaster, allowing 4 runs in three innings, and until he gets things stretched out he will be on a pitch count, opening the door for the Twins' middle relief to get exposed here. The Royals are 8-1 when facing a team off of allowing 5 runs or more, while the Twins are failing miserably vs. right-hand pitching at 32-67 in their last 99. Play on Kansas City.

JEFF BENTON

Your Friday freebie is the Washington Nationals.

The Nats just concluded a slugfest series in Colorado with 33 runs scored in their last three games. The sticks continue to smoke tonight in Hot-Lanta where the temperature should contribute to the ball flying all over the yard tonight at Turner Field.

Randall Delgado has allowed nine earned runs over his last 14-plus innings pitched, and he was unable to get out of the 2nd inning in his last start against Boston.

Ross Detwiler came out of the bullpen to work five scoreless in a no decision versus Baltimore his last time out, and I expect him to build off of that positive start and limit the runs tonight against the Braves.

Washington has won six of the last seven season series meetings dating back to last year, and they do own a 23-17 road mark this season. Atlanta is not even playing .500 baseball (17-18) at home this season, so I see no reason why they should be laying this kind of price to the first place Nats.

Go with Washington.

3♦ WASHINGTON

MATT RIVERS

Free play run is 7-1 the past 8 days!

Your free play for tonight will be the Under in the Tigers-Rays game.

Justin Verlander and David Price are more than capable of going out there tonight and mowing the hitters down.

Verlander has worked four straight starts with 2 earned runs or less allowed, and seven of his last nine overall starts have seen 2 runs or less cross. Doubtful the Rays who have scored just 8 runs in their last 4 games will muster much offense against the Cy Young Award winner.

David Price is 4-2 at home with a 2.32 ERA at Tropicana Field. The southpaw just worked seven innings of one run ball in a win at Philadelphia his last time out.

Last night's game held Under the total, as these teams are now 7-0-2 Under the total the last nine times they have faced one another.

Another low scoring game in the cards tonight between the Tigers and Rays.

4♦ UNDER

Jimmy Boyd

Los Angeles Angels -116

The streaking Halos are worth a wager tonight at this price. They are 25-8 in their last 33 games, including 14-1 on the road. Toronto's Carlos Villanueva has had some success out of the pen, but he has struggled as a starter (11-15 with a 4.92 ERA in 40 career starts). I expect the hot-hitting Angels to jump on him early tonight. LA's Ervin Santana is rounding into form. He tossed a one-hit shutout against Arizona on June 16, and then only allowed two earned runs on four hits while striking out 10 over eight innings against the Dodgers Saturday. When he gets 5 days of rest he is usually sharp, and the Angels are 8-2 in his last 10 starts on 5 days' rest as a result. The Blue Jays have dropped 3 straight and are 1-6 in their last 7 versus a team with a winning record. Take the Angels.

Dave Price

Colorado Rockies -144

The Padres have been a dead fade on the road where they are 12-25 on the season. They have also struggled against left-handed pitching, going just 7-19 against southpaw starters this year. The Padres are 6-24 in their last 30 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Colorado's Jeff Francis has pitched very well. The Rockies are 3-0 in his last 3 starts, and he has allowed a total of only 3 runs in his last 2 starts. San Diego's Jason Marquis can't be trusted. We're talking about a guy who's 3-7 with an ERA of 5.67 and a WHIP of 1.707. Take the Rockies.

MLB Predictions

San Francisco Giants -148

Last night San Francisco enjoyed their 4th straight win, and all four were shutouts if you can believe that. The Giants have won their last four games by scores of 5-0 (last night vs Cincy), 3-0, 2-0, and 8-0. They have now won 6 of their last 7 games and have moved into 1st in the NL West with a 44-33 record, and stellar 25-14 home record. The Reds have lost two straight and are just 3-7 over their last 10 games to make them 41-34 on the year and 18-18 on the road. Mike Leake will pitch for Cincinnati. He is 2-5 with a 4.46 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and .276 opponents batting average. He has gotten better as the season has gone on, but his numbers don’t compare to the pitcher he will face tonight. Matt Cain will take the mound for San Francisco looking to keep the shutout innings going. Cain is 9-2 on the season with a 2.27 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and .195 opponents batting average. In June he has gone 4-0 over 5 starts with a 1.25 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and .168 opponents batting average. Also note that at home he has a microscopic 1.45 ERA to go along with his 4-1 record over 7 starts. The Giants are 18-4 in their last 22 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, and 19-7 in their last 26 home games overall. They are 7-1 in their last 8 vs NL Central opponents, 20-8 in their last 28 games as favorites, and 9-1 in Cain’s last 10 starts. Take one of the hottest teams in baseball right now behind one the best pitchers so far this year. Giants to win has value at -148.

Jeff Alexander

Washington Nationals +107

The Nats have won 6 of their last 7 against the Braves, and they have the edge again this evening with Detwiler on the mound. Washington has won each of his 3 starts against division foes this season, and he has posted a low 1.76 ERA in those games. Going back to last year, the Nationals are 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the National League East and 10-4 in his last 14 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Nats have also won his last 3 starts vs. the Braves. Atlanta's Delgado is struggling to the tune of 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA over his last 3 starts. We'll take Washington.