Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, June 4,2010

Cajun Sports

Cubs vs. Astros
Play: Under 8.5

The Cubs head south for a three-game series with the host Astros over the weekend. The opener is set for Friday night with the first pitch at 8:05PM EST. Houston is 20-34 on the season and a mere 12-19 at home averaging just 3.3 runs per game. They will send Felipe Paulino to the bump with his 1.80 ERA over his last three outings and a record of 2-1 Under in those starts. Houston is 12-3 Under versus a NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season and 23-9 Under in home games versus a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start the last 2 seasons. They are also 117-89 Under in all games over the last 2 seasons and 34-17 Under as a home underdog of +100 or higher the last 2 seasons. Paulino has posted a 9-3-1 Under record versus NL Central foes and 9-4-1 Under in his last 14 starts as an underdog. Chicago has not fared much better going 24-29 overall and 10-16 when playing on the highway. The Cubs are only scoring 3.9 runs per game on the road with a batting average of .241. Chicago will hang their hopes on Carlos Zambrano with his 4.0 ERA in his last three starts going under in two of the three games. Zambrano has posted an 11-1 Under record when playing in Houston. In fact the Under has dominated his starts versus the Astros no matter where they are played with 21 of 27 games falling below the posted total and an ERA of 2.56 over that span. This series has gone 39-17-3 Under their last 59 meetings overall and 37-18-1 Under their last 56 in Houston. We are not going to buck the trend here as we are going to play this one to fall once again below the posted total.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Chicago – Houston UNDER 8.5

David Chan

Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays

Take the Rays, opposing the Rangers’ CJ Wilson.

The Rays are very effective against southpaw starters: so far this season Tampa is 17-6 when digging in against lefties. They’ll get to CJ Wilson here as they’ve gotten to so many before him.

What about Wilson in particular? We successfully faded Wilson in a free selection last weekend and we’re opposing him here again for roughly the same reasons: moved to the rotation in 2010, he’s approaching last season’s innings total already, and he appears to be weakening as the season moves forward. He coughed up 5 ER with a 3/2 K/BB ratio in that last start against the Twins, and his K rate is slowly eroding. As a reliever last year he fanned 84 in 74 IP; this year he’s got 47 K in 64.2 IP. And that includes 9 K in the season opener. The slide continues.

Jim Feist

Marlins vs. Mets
Play: Under 8½

Knuckelballer R.A. Dickey looks like Tim Wakefield when he first came up with the Pirates and Red Sox - unhittable! One edge knuckleballers have is that there are so few of them, offenses often aren't used to seeing them. Dickey is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA since being called up. Anibal Sanchez of the Marlins is in an even better groove, with a 3-0 record and a 0.90 ERA his last three starts. He has already faced the Mets once this season and blew them away (7 IP, 4 hits, 2 runs, 7 Ks). Look for a defensive duel, play the Marlins/Mets Under the total.

Gill Alexander

MIN (-105) vs OAK

Baker is coming off a quality start v Tex in which he went 6IP and gave up 3ER on 8H. He has a 50-13 SO-BB ratio this season, but opponents have hit .284 against him. He also has a shaky 5.86ERA on the road in '10. But, he has a solid 3.24ERA v Oak in 4 career starts. Braden has a 2.14ERA at home this season but has struggled somewhat since his perfect game on May 9 v TB. He has a 4.13ERA in those last 4 starts. He has a 2.81ERA in 4 career outings v Min. All of the above speaks to why the line is what it is, especially w Michael Cuddyer out of the lineup in this one (death of father-in-law). However, sabermetrics show that Baker has a 3.64FIP and 3.92xFIP, coupled w a .332BABIP, indicating that he has been the victim of bad fortune thus far this season. Braden, meanwhile, has a 3.84FIP and 4.02xFIP, numbers that are fairly comparable to Braden's, but his BABIP is .267. That leads us to believe that Braden's moderate struggles should get worse. But, the tipping point for this ballgame for me is just how taxed the Athletics bullpen is coming in to this ballgame after going 4 relievers deep at Fenway yesterday, 3000 miles away. Vin Mazzaro and Andrew Bailey should be unavailable to Oakland in this game, while the Twins bullpen (6th best FIP in MLB at 3.50) is fresh. I like how this one shakes out for Minnesota.

JR O'Donnell

Phillies/Padres Under 7.5

The Phillies have only plated 3 runs or less for over 10 games now and they were shut out, that's right a goose egg for 1/2 of them boys , wow! Roy Mr. Perfect will be back at it tonight as the Padres will struggle to plate any runs vs. the Rock Halladay and his .199 ERA. The Padres have has solid pitching and M.Latos from the Padres is on a 5-3 run and a super strong run .308 ERA. He is also on a nice streak holding opponents to 2 or less runs the last 6 games The Padres bullpen is also doing great this season, ranked in the top 5 @ 2.88 ERA. All systems are go tonight from JR O as the Under 7.5 is the sharp play tonight on the June 4th's diamond!

Marc Lawrence

Boston Red Sox

Boston sends Clay Buchholz to the mound in Baltimore Friday evening against Chris Tillman and the Orioles at Camden Yards. Buchholz has cashed in 15 of his last 20 team starts, including eight in a row on the road. He's also 4-2 in his career team starts in this series. With Tillman just 2-7 in his last nine starts, including 0-3 the last three, look for the better team and the better arm to win here tonight.

Tom Freese

San Francisco at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh starter Zach Duke allowed 7 runs in 5.1 innings of work in his last start. The Pirates are 10-25 vs. NL West teams and they are 15-39 their last 54 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Pirates are 8-20 in the last 28 starts made by Zach Duke. The Giants are 6-1 their last games vs. the Pirates. San Francisco is 6-1 vs. NL Central teams and they are 5-1 their last 6 games as favorites. The Giants are 7-2 after allowing 2 runs or less in their last game. The Giants are 6-1 with Sanchez as a favorite of -110 to -150. PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO

Brad Diamond Sports

San Diego over Philadelphia

Until the Phillies break out of their horrible slump, can’t project anything positive, even with Doc on the hill. Here, the pitching opposition is RHP Matt Latos of San Diego who has been solid this season with a 5-3 record and a nice 3.08 ERA. San Diego has been sizzling hot on the road winning 10 of 13. With the Padres 7 of 9 versus right-handed starting pitchers and 4 of 5 with Latos.

Rocketman

LA Angels @ Seattle
Play: LA Angels -110

LA Angels are 112-83 the past 3 years when playing on the road. LA Angels have won 5 of their last 6 games overall. Seattle is 6-15 against division opponents this year. Seattle is scoring only 3.7 runs per game overall this year, 3.8 runs per game at home and 4 runs per game against left handed starters this season. Joe Saunders is 2-1 with a 3.20 ERA on the road this year. Ian Snell is 0-3 with a 4.58 ERA in all games this year, 0-2 at home this season and 0-1 his last 3 starts. Saunders is 7-1 with a 3.75 ERA overall vs Seattle since 1997. Snell is 0-2 with a 7.05 ERA overall vs LA Angels since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Angels tonight!

Bryan Leonard

San Diego at Philadelphia

Just too much value with the Padres here not to take a chance at this price. The Phillies haven't scored more than 3 total runs in 11 straight games. Today they take on Matt Latos who owns a sparking 2.89 ERA in his last seven starts. In his last three road starts his ERA is just 3.00 so the Petco Park factor is not in play here. In fact, the Padres 14-9 road record is better than the Phillies 13-10 home mark.

Roy Halladay is an elite pitcher off of a perfect game but his ERA over his last seven starts is just slightly better than his counterpart at 2.72. The veteran has pitched much better on the road than at home this season. We take a chance with the sizable dog in a matchup of two of the best starters in baseball.

PLAY SAN DIEGO

EZWINNERS

St. Louis Cardinals -$230

The Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright continues to dominate this season. Wainwright has ten quality starts in his eleven games that he has started this season. Wainwright is coming off of a solid game against the Cubs in which he allowed only a Geovany Soto solo homerun as the only run scored for Chicago. Wainwright has been very good against Milwaukee in his career where he is 5-3 with an ERA of 2.25 and I expect him to pitch well against a Brewers team that has been very disappointing this season. Milwaukee's starting pitcher Randy Wolf has not been very good this year as he is 4-4 with a 4.46 ERA and he is only 3-5 with an ERA of 3.55 in his career against the Cardinals. Milwaukee has really struggle this season and their bullpen has been horrible. I don't expect things to change in this game as they face one of the Cardinal's aces. The Cardinals are 57-23 in their last eighty games as a home favorite of -$200 or higher. Play on St. Louis.

MTi Sports

Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are 19-1 as a favorite vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series and 17-1 as a favorite after a one-run loss. Atlanta is 4-21 as a dog after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers and 1-11 when Kenshin Kawakami starts when he went at least 6 innings and gave up 6 or fewer hits in his previous start. Consider LA.

Jeff Saad

Red Sox at Orioles

The orioles have a weak offense, last in the AL, on a 12-4-1 run under the total. A pair of quality starters take the mound in this one. Clay Buchholz has been Boston’s best starter, at 7-3 with a 2.73 ERA. His last three starts: 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA. At least the Orioles have a decent starter in this one in Chris Tillman, who has a 3.18 ERA. Boston has never faced him, either. Play the Red Sox/Orioles Under the total.

Carlo Campanella

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Play: Boston Red Sox

Boston finds themselves owning huge advantages on both sides of the ball tonight, so it's no surprise that they're in the road Favorite role in Baltimore, even with the Black Birds owning a 3-0 home record in this series this season. Backing Boston to get their first road win in Baltimore this year on Friday night as they start Clay Buckholtz on the mound. The Red Sox have won each of his last 3 starts, while he's allowed just 3 Earned Runs in 21 Innings Pitched! Buckholtz matches up well against the O's line up, beating them 3-1 and 10-0 during his last two trips to the mound against them. He should have no trouble stopping a struggling Baltimore squad that's lost 8 straight games while scoring only 1 Run or less in 5 of those last 8 games! Lots of pros for Boston, only con is the price.