VEGAS EXPERTS
Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros
Cubs’ starter Carlos Zambrano has been very good against the Houston Astros in his career with a 12-7 record in 27 starts and an ERA of 2.56. He has not allowed more than one run in each of his last four starts against the Astros. His counterpart Felipe Paulino has just two starts against the Cubs in his career, but lost both of those games allowing seven earned runs in just 12 innings. Chicago has lost three straight games while Houston has won three straight. We like that to reverse tonight. Go with the Cubbies.
Play on: Chicago Cubs
Matt Fargo
Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Cincinnati Reds
Washington is back home after a rough roadtrip where it lost all three series against the Giants, Padres and Astros. Overall the Nationals went 3-7 on the 10-game trek and while they are a much better team at home I can see this slump continuing. They are 6-14 in their last 20 games overall and have now fallen three games under .500. The Reds dropped two of three against the Cardinals in a key early season divisional series and both are now tied atop the National League Central. Cincinnati brings a 12-12 road record into Washington as it looks to bounce back against the struggling Nationals. Aaron Harang gets the call for Cincinnati and he has been one of the streakiest pitchers in baseball. When things are going good, he carries that on for a while and when things are going bad, he goes that way for a while as well. The good news here is that he is coming off a quality start in his last game which came after three rough outings so we should see the positive outcomes go on. He fared well against Washington last season as he tossed two quality outings in two starts, posting a 1.23 ERA. Livan Hernandez has been one of the more pleasant surprises this season as he has been extremely solid from the start. He has an outstanding 2.15 ERA and with that, Washington should be much better than the 6-4 it is in his 10 starts. The Nationals score no runs for him as they are averaging only 3.6 rpg in those starts including just 2.9 rpg in his last eight trips. He faces a Cincinnati team that he has had trouble with in the past and this year’s edition is one of the better squads he will have seen. Also, the Reds are hitting a solid .318 over the last 10 games and they are 12-4 in their last 16 games against right-handed starters. The Nationals are 3-9 in Hernandez’ last 12 home starts against teams with a winning record. 3* Cincinnati Reds
Wunderdog
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles +1.5
The Red Sox bullpen is battered and can't get anyone out. The Orioles are a joke on the road where they are 7-35 over their last 42, but a much more competitive team at home. The Birds are getting it done here, and over their last 14 on home turf, they would be 9-5 to a +1.5 runline. Boston is having fits trying to run down the Birds as the log shows them at just 2-4 in the six played this season, but in the six games the Sox have yet to have a winning margin of greater than a single run. I'll ride with Baltimore on the runline.
Craig Trapp
Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Cincinnati Reds
Two teams headed in opposite directions here. CIN is playing some of the best baseball in the league right now winning 6 of last 10 and 11 of last 15. On the other side WASH really is struggling losing 7 of last 10. Huge pitching mismatch in my mind as well. Hernandez for WASH was on a roll to start the year but has not been good in last month has not won a game going 0-1 with a 3.32 ERA. Even worse against CIN 0-5 with a 6.51 ERA in his last nine outings. On the other side Harang's ERA gets us value even though lately he has been much better going 3-1 in last 5 starts with a 3.98 ERA. Huge advantage also to CIN as they are much better bullpen and fielding team. At the plate its likely a push but CIN has been hitting better in last 20 games. Too good of value to pass up against a struggling WASH team!
Hollywood Sports
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates
As a small underdog, the Pirates present a nice opportunity Friday night. While Zach Duke is just 3-5 with a 5.09 ERA for the season, he offers a much better proposition when pitching at home. This year, Duke enjoys a 3.57 ERA at home as opposed to his 6.99 ERA when on the road. Duke has also been successful against the Giants. In '09, Duke sported a 2.57 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of just .250 against San Fran. The Giants are hitting only .214 against lefties this season which helps explain why they have lost four of their last five against lefthanded starters. They trot out Jonathan Sanchez who is 3-4 but with a strong 2.90 ERA this season. But the young lefty is not nearly as effective on the road this season given his 3.67 ERA. Furthermore, the Giants have lost 20 of their last 27 road games with Sanchez on the mound. And the Pirates have seven of their last ten games when an underdog in the +110 to +150 range. Finally, as opposed to San Francisco, Pittsburgh has won eight of their last ten games against southpaws. Take Pittsburgh with the money line tonight while listing both pitchers.
Scott Rickenbach
Padres @ Phillies
PICK: Under 7.5
The Phillies enter this game in a horrific slump as they have scored just 14 runs in their last 11 games! This slump is unlikely to see improvement against the hard-throwing Latos of the Padres. As a team the Padres have allowed just three runs total in his last two starts. The trouble for San Diego in this game will be their own sticks. The Padres, other than that very rare 18 run outburst versus the Mets on Monday, have been their typical low-scoring selves. San Diego continues to produce three runs or less in most games and they will struggle to get anything going against Halladay tonight. The Phillies right-hander is arguably the most dominant pitcher in baseball. Philadelphia has stayed under the total in each of his last three starts against National League opponents. Tonight, Halladay will take advantage of facing one of the weaker hitting teams in the NL. The Phillies are 11-3-1 to the under in their last 15 games. The Padres are 6-3 to the under in their last 9 games. This has the makings of a pure pitchers duel as the Phils sticks continue their slump while Halladay continues his mastery on the mound. Consider a small play on the UNDER in Philadelphia on Friday night.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Rockies @ Dbacks
PICK: Under 10
With Arizona riding a ten-game losing streak, taking a look at the underdog Rockies seems to make sense but the total may be the best play in this match-up. After all Colorado is just 13-16 in road games this season and the Diamondbacks are coming off a brutal road trip and should be in position to regroup back at home. Colorado has won four of six meetings between these teams this season but all four games came at Coor’s Field. Colorado is also only 3-13 in last the 16 starts that Aaron Cook has made versus Arizona, though backing Arizona as a favorite carries serious risk.
Ian Kennedy is just 3-3 on the season but he has pitched well for the Diamondbacks. He has not allowed more than three runs in any of his last six starts and his ERA at home is just 2.57. Arizona’s bullpen has struggled but Kennedy is averaging six and a third innings per start. He also pitched well against the Rockies in an eventual 3-2 loss earlier this season. Arizona’s bullpen has also done a decent job lately, eating a lot of positive innings despite the long losing streak and four consecutive walk-off losses including three in extra-innings.
Cook is the all-time Rockies wins leader and after a shaky start to the season he appears to have found a groove. Cook has allowed just nine earned runs over his last four starts and he has not allowed a home run since April 19. Cook has not pitched as well on the road this season but he will be facing a struggling Arizona offense that is batting .187 in the last ten games. Cook is also backed up by one of the best bullpens in the National League with a 2.99 season ERA including 1.71 in the last ten games.
The ‘over’ has dominated in Arizona games but the scoring numbers on both sides of the ball have dropped in recent weeks for the Diamondbacks. Colorado has also been a strong ‘under’ team in road games with the ‘under’ going 16-11-2. Colorado’s offense has scored four or fewer runs in five of the last six games and on the road this season the Rockies have averaged just 3.8 runs per game. Arizona has averaged just 1.7 runs per game in the last week and this should be a good situation for another low-scoring game.
LARRY NESS
San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: San Francisco Giants
The Pirates' last winning season came back in 1992 and few expect the team's losing ways to end in 2010. Zach Duke 'EXPLODED' on the ML scene in 2005, going 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA in 14 starts. However, losing has been pretty much the norm for Duke since that season. He started 3-1 and 5-3 last year but ended 11-16 with the Pirates losing 18 of his last 24 starts. He opened the 2010 season 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA after three starts (team was 3-0) but he's back to losing since, going 1-5 with a 6.25 ERA in his last eight starts (team is 2-6). Jonathan Sanchez pitched a highly unlikely no-hitter the day before last year's All Star break, beating the Padres 8-0 on July 10. His record is just 3-4 in 2010 after 10 starts (San Fran is 5-5) but he's shown excellent form, posting a solid 2.90 ERA while allowing a modest 39 hits in 62 innings. Sanchez faces a Pittsburgh team which ranks last in the majors with 171 runs scored (3.23 RPG) and has scored three runs or fewer in eight straight games (15 of its last 17). Sanchez shut down Pittsburgh 6-0 back in April (at San Francisco on 4/14), allowing just three hits while tying a career high in strikeouts with 11. Meanwhile, Duke is 1-2 with a 7.71 ERA in his last three starts against the Giants here at PNC Park. Take the Giants.
TEDDY COVERS
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Detroit Tigers
Max Scherzer was the single most hyped pitching prospect in the Diamondbacks farm system after Arizona took him in the first round of the 2006 draft. The 6-3 southpaw dominated just about everyone he faced in the minor leagues. But Scherzer struggled with his control at the major league level, unable to string together consistent performances from one start to the next. The D-backs gave up on him this past offseason, dealing him to Detroit.
The Tigers were every bit as frustrated with Scherzer as Arizona was – he just wasn’t consistent enough. They sent Scherzer back to Triple A for some seasoning, and the results have been quite dramatic. Scherzer threw a pair of brilliant outings at AAA Toledo, then returned to the big leagues last weekend with a 14 strikeout, two hit performance against Oakland.
The last time he faced Kansas City here in KC, Scherzer threw six innings of one hit, shutout ball back on April 7th. He’s quite capable of a similar showing here. Behind Scherzer is one of the better bullpens in the big leagues, relatively fresh off a well pitched series against the Indians.
The Royals are slumping, losers of five of their last, held to two runs or less four times during that span. KC has been a consistent money loser at home – only Houston and Milwaukee have been less profitable to support.
KC’s Bruce Chen is a spot starter at best, a four or five inning guy at this stage of his career. The Tigers hit him hard in both starts versus Detroit last year, pounding out 12 runs in 9.1 innings of work against him. Coming off a 12 run scoring outburst yesterday, look for Detroit to take care of business against Chen and the suspect bullpen behind him tonight. 2* Take Detroit.
Jack Jones
Chicago Cubs -125
After three straight losses, getting outscored 4-14, I'm backing the Cubs to end their losing streak tonight in Houston. The Cubs will be up against a starting pitcher who is winless this season. Houston's Felipe Paulino is 0-7 with a 4.40 ERA this year and he won't be getting his first win of the year against a very hungry Cubs' team tonight. Carlos Zambrano is coming around, going 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA in his last 3 starts while not allowing more than 3 earned runs in any of these 3 outings.
Zambrano is 12-7 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 27 career starts vs. Houston. In his last 4 starts vs. Houston, Zambrano has allowed just 3 earned runs in 30 innings for a sub-1.00 ERA. He has not allowed more than 1 earned run in any of his last 4 starts against the Astros. Paulino is 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA in two career starts vs. Chicago, and he allowed 5 earned runs and 9 base runners in 6 innings to take the loss in a 2-7 setback against the Cubs back on April 16th earlier this season. Houston is 4-18 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. Paulino is 1-12 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. Take the Cubs Friday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit New York Yankees -127
I'll back Burnett against his former mates tonight as the Yankees have won 3 of his 4 starts against the Jays. Meanwhile, Cecil hasn't had much luck against New York. The Jays have lost both of his starts against the Yankees while he has posted an ERA of 11.25. It's also nice to know that the Yankees are 14-5 in Burnett's last 19 starts. The Yankees have won 6 of their last 8 in Toronto and 12 of the last 17 overall, and I expect them to keep rolling over Toronto tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +103
The last time Halladay took the hill, the Phillies won behind his perfect game. After 4 straight losses since, I expect the Phillies to rally behind their ace tonight. I expect no letdown from Halladay. Instead, his no-no should only boost his confidence going forward. Here, I like the fact that San Diego is only 6-22 vs. an NL starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.70 or better over the last 3 seasons, losing these games by 2.4 runs on average. And I love the fact that Philly is a perfect 9-0 in home games after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span over the last 2 seasons, exploding to win by an average score of 7.4 to 1.2 in these spots. Plus, the Padres have lost 5 straight to the Phillies with the last 4 all coming by 2 runs or more. Take the Phillies on the run line.
Black Widow
1* on Brewers/Cardinals OVER 7.5
This is a very low total for a Brewers' game. Milwaukee has one of the worst pitching staffs in the big leagues, but they can hit the cover off the ball to make up for it. St. Louis is finally starting to get their bats going, and that should continue tonight against Randy Wolf of the Brewers. The Cardinals are hitting .339 and scoring 6.9 runs/game in their last 7 games. The Brewers are hitting .277 and scoring 5.6 runs/game on the road this season. These teams met three times earlier this season in Milwaukee, with combined scored of 15, 8 and 9 runs. Wolf squared off against Carpenter in the 15-run outburst, and Wolf is 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.800 WHIP on the road this season. The OVER is 9-2 in Wolf's 11 starts this year, including 4-1 in his 5 road starts. Wolf is 18-3 OVER (+15.0 Units) vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. The Brewers are 24-11 OVER (+12.3 Units) against right-handed starters this season. Milwaukee is 9-1 OVER (+8.0 Units) in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 12-1 in Brewers last 13 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. The OVER is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in St. Louis. Take the OVER 7.5 runs here.
Dennis Macklin
Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros
Play: Chicago Cubs
Big Z returns to the bump as a starter for the first time since April 20th. Zambrano wasn't exactly off to a fast start at 1-2 and 7.90 in four starts but he gets soft touch 20-34 Astros here, a team he's owned throughout his career. In three starts against Houston last year, just three earned in twety-one innings allowing just 11 hits. Felipe Paulino has been better in last three but lets remember that he's 0-7 with a 4.40 ERA in ten starts this year. Getting Big Z untracked is going to be to determine whether 2010 will be a write off for the struggling Blue Bears. Tonight, Zambrano gets it done and the price is right!
Dave Price
1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -104
Off 3 straight defeats, look for the Twins to finally get back in the win column tonight behind Baker. Baker is a perfect 4-0 in his career when starting against Oakland with an ERA of 3.24 and a WHIP of 0.960. Since hurling a perfect game, the A's have lost Braden's last 4 starts. The Twins are 9-1 in Baker's last 10 starts as a road favorite. The A's have played well at home, but the Twins are the better team, and I'll back them behind a pitcher that has had Oakland's number.