Info Plays
3* on Pittsburgh Pirates +121
Reasons the Pirates win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PITTSBURGH) - allowing 5.3 or more runs/game on the season (NL), after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games. This is a 55-30 ML System hitting 64.7% since 1997 while profiting +47.6 units on a basis of 1 unit bet/game. This system is 5-1 this season.
2.) Pittsburgh's Zach Duke has pitched well at home this season, posting a 3.57 ERA through 6 home starts in 2010. Duke has also fared well vs. San Francisco, sporting a 3.43 ERA in 7 lifetime starts vs. the Giants. In fact, Duke has allowed just 4 earned runs in his last 3 starts vs. San Francisco, totaling 25 innings pitched. The Pirates are 10-2 against the money line in home games after a one run win over the last 2 seasons. Pittsburgh is 6-0 against the money line in home games after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games this season. The Pirates' pitching has kept them competitive this year, and they are actually above .500 at home this season with a 13-12 home mark. The Giants are just 9-13 in road games this year. Bet Pittsburgh at home.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Francisco –1½ +1.27 over PITTSBURGH
The Giants are very likely thrilled to be going on the road after a nine-game home stand in which they went 6-3. That’s a tough park for hitter’s and yet the Giants bats have come to life and that’s why they’ll enjoy playing at PNC Park against this ugly pitching staff. The Giants are hitting .279 over its last nine games and Zack Duke isn’t likely to slow them down. Duke has a BAA this year of .322 after allowing 85 hits in 63 IP. His BABIP is an eye-opening .359 and he’s been fortunate that his numbers aren’t worse because he has a 70% strand rate. Duke is almost always pitching every single inning with two men on. Jonathan Sanchez faced the Pirates back on April 14th and threw eight innings of shutout ball, with 3 walks and a career-high 11 strikeouts. Sanchez has a 2.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 63:29 K:BB ratio through 62 innings this season. He's given up four or fewer runs in each of his starts, and three of his losses have come from games that he allowed two or fewer runs. His BAA is .181 after allowing just 39 hits in 62 innings. Fact is, Sanchez has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league this year but a 3-4 record has kept him way under the radar, thus making him very undervalued. Lastly the Pirates feature one of the weakest hitting line-ups in the business. In fact, the Pirates have scored three runs or less in eight straight games and in 12 of its last 13 games. This has to be considered the biggest pitching mismatch on today’s menu. Play: San Francisco –1½ +1.27 (Risking 2 units).
HOUSTON +1.21 over Chicago
The Astros have won three in a row and four of its last five games and they’re bats have suddenly come to life. That picks up everybody including the pitching staff, knowing they don’t have to be perfect to win. Felipe Paulino is a quality pitcher with all the upside in the world but is learning as he goes and that has resulted in some tough outings. However, he’s also thrown some gems and the line-up he’ll face here is one that can be dominated. The Cubbies were swept in Pittsburgh and has not lost five of its last seven games. During that stretch they scored one runs or less four times. Over its last three games, the Cubbies have scored five runs and that includes three runs in Pittsburgh against Russ Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens. Both those pitchers had ERA’s of over five before they faced the Cubs and a combined record of 1-5. Carlos Zambrano is back in the starting rotation and all we can say is big deal. This guy has been getting progressively worse for three years now and it hasn’t been gradual. He went from being an ace to being a donkey pretty much overnight and he’s not looked back. Ok, perhaps that’s a bit exaggerated because Zambrano still has good stuff. However, he hasn’t started in six weeks and now he’s going to be asked to pitch much longer and that’s not easy. He’ll also pitch under pressure knowing that a bad outing could send him right back where he does not like to be. Mentally, this is a tough spot for Zambrano and the Astros have some pep back in their steps. Wrong side favored. Play: Houston +1.21 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit –1½ +1.19 over KANSAS CITY
Ironic, isn’t it that the two teams involved in the biggest umpire blown calls in history will meet right after the last one. Anyway, Bruce Chen made his first start of 2010 last week after spending the season in the bullpen. His 2.70 ERA might give the impression that there is still some potential in his arm but his 5.28 xERA and lousy command (10 walks in 13 IP) should clear that up. The Royals are turning to him out of desperation and that’s all there is to it. Over the past three seasons prior to this one, Chen had ERA’s of 5.78, 7.20 and 6.93 respectively. He’s pitched for 12 teams over the past 10 years and each team couldn’t wait to dump him faster than the last. The Royals will be next on that list. Meanwhile, Max Scherzer seemed to benefit from his time in Triple-A, as he threw 5.2 scoreless IP with 14 strikeouts in his first start back in the majors. And for the season, his 4.62 xERA suggests he hasn't pitched as badly as his 6.42 ERA indicates. He faced the Royals in his first two starts of the season and posted a 1.64 ERA and chances are great he’ll get lots of run support here. Play Detroit –1½ +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.02 over NY METS
Given a choice, the Marlins would play the Mets 162 times a year if they could. The Fish have beaten up on the Mets this season by winning six of seven games and in the last three they scored 10, 7 and 7 runs respectively in a three-game set. Anibal Sanchez (60 BPV, 0-5-5-4-5 PQS) has come on strong lately, going 4-0 with a 1.33 ERA over his last four starts. He faced the Mets in one of those outings on May 14th, posting a PQS-5 over 7 IP, allowing 2 ER with 2 walks and 7 strikeouts. In 62 IP this season, Sanchez has allowed just one jack and has struck out 49 batters. The Marlins have also won four of five and catch the Mets returning home from a six game trip that took them to Milwaukee and then San Diego. R.A. Dickey has been rock solid but with a knuckleballer, you’re always taking a risk. There’s a reason Dickey has been up and down from the minors for 14 years and it’s not because he’s great. He’s a fill in guy until some healthy bodies come back and while the Mets will gladly ride him for all he’s worth, chances are an implosion is forthcoming very soon. Marlins are warming up again with four wins in five games and they offer up some more good value here. Play: Florida +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +1.07 over PHILADELPHIA
Give the Broad Street Bullies all the credit in the world for making this a series and with a few bounces their way Philly could easily be up 2-1 or even 3-0. Now the Flyers stock has increased dramatically after that latest 4-3 OT win and it’s usually not a good idea to play on a team when its stock is high. Let’s face it, the Blackhawks have yet to show up in this series. They’ve had a few good shifts and they’ve had some decent periods but this isn’t the same team we saw against San Jose, Nashville or Vancouver. Now the Blackhawks are hearing it from the media and everywhere else. One cannot argue that Chicago has not played up to its potential and that will all get pushed aside tonight. The Blackhawks will come out and play their hearts out for a full 60 minutes. They will leave nothing on the table tonight. They’re simply the much-better team that has not played so good in the first three games, yet they won two of them and lost in OT in the third. Furthermore, and I don’t care what anyone says, Michael Leighton has been extremely lucky thus far w9th saves that have hit him square in the chest, arm or stick. He’s slow and he’s out of position too often to keep getting lucky. These Blackhawks sharpshooters will expose this guy soon enough. Aside from Pronger, the Flyers defense is vulnerable to so many bad plays and Chicago has yet to pressure them enough. Lukas Krajicek couldn’t be the seventh defenseman on 99% of the teams in this league and this is the game that Chicago pulls it together and shows the world whom they really are. Play: Chicago +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
Nelly
San Diego + over Philadelphia
The Padres are 10-3 in the last 13 road games and San Diego continues to cash underdog tickets with solid overall play. The Phillies enter this game as huge favorites due to Roy Halladay being on the mound coming off of a perfect game but the Phillies are playing poorly right now. The Phillies are just 2-9 in the last eleven games, hitting around .210 in that span and scoring less than 1.3 runs per game. Philadelphia did endure a difficult long road trip but the Phillies are just 13-10 at home including just 2-4 in the last six road games. Philadelphia had lost Halladay’s previous three starts before he dominated the Marlins and even that game was a 1-0 final where the Phillies only run came on an error. Halladay has allowed 19 runs over his last seven starts and while he has been very good this season he is clearly overvalued against a San Diego team that has greatly outperformed Philadelphia. San Diego is 8-3 in the last eleven games and 14-9 in road games this season. Mat Latos had some early season ups-and-downs to hurt his overall numbers but he delivered a brilliant month of May. Latos allowed just seven runs in six May starts. In his last five starts he has not allowed a home run and he has allowed just six walks while striking out 33 in that span. In his last three road starts has allowed just one run in 23 innings. San Diego’s bullpen is one of the best in baseball as well including a 2.00 ERA over the last ten games. This is great value on the Padres who have been the far more consistent team and fading Halladay makes sense at this price as Latos has actually been sharper overall in the month.
STAN LISOWSKI
Washington
The Nats have won 7 of 9 at home against the Reds. They are 13-6 as a host facing a right-handed starter. Hernandez takes the mound for Washington and he has a 2.15 ERA on the season with a stellar 1.51 earned run average pitching at home. Cincinnati has dropped 7 of Harang’s 11 starts this year.
Sac Lawson
NYM / FLA Under 8.5
If there's one thing I know.. it's this... The Mets have a fantastic bullpen, they've been great all year. Florida's bullpen is as reliable as it gets in innings 8 and 9 with Hensley and Nunez. What we need, is a decent performance from Anibal, one in which he pitches 6 or 7 strong innings, and a continuing decent performance from Dickey... Here's why I expect both of those things to happen..
First, Anibal had one of the best month of May's in baseball, and absolutely nobody recognized it. The guy had 6 starts, and only gave up 8 total runs. He never gave up more than 2 runs in any of those starts. Truly an awesome month, and he's truly red hot right now. One of those starts was against the Mets, in fact, and he went 7 strong and gave up just 2 runs (but that was in Florida, a much more hitter-friendly park). I truly expect Anibal to keep this hot streak going, in fact, you've simply got to until he gives an indicator that he's cooling off. He certainly hasn't done that yet.
On the other hand.. R.A. Dickey really has me impressed over his three starts this year. The guy was absolutely money in triple A, and I fully expected that to carry over, and it has done just that. The guy has the best command over his knuckler that he's had at any other point in his career in my opinion. And this Florida matchup is one that I absolutely love for Dickey. Florida is one of the least patient offenses in teh big league's, and as we all know, the only way to his a knuckler is to wait him out. Florida simply doesn't have that mentality in their blood. On top of it, knucklers give up long fly balls, and tonight we're playing in the ultimate pitchers park, and a park in which Dickey shut out the Phillies in his only home start of the season.
I truly have faith in both of today's starters, and if they each give us 6 or 7 strong innings of 2-3 run baseball, I feel extremely confident with our 8.5 number being too high. Roll the UNDER for 1 unit!
ANA (-108) vs SEA
Seattle has lost 9 of the last 10 games that Ian Snell has been involved in. Not a good sign, for anyone. I fully understand that the feeling in the Seattle clubhouse has changed a great deal over the last few days, and from a motivational standpoint, this team definitely has some value moving forward. That being said, I do think that Joe Saunders is being vastly undervalued himself, to the point where we just can't pass it up.
With how poorly Saunders just pitched against Seattle last week, it just seems far too easy to fade him here. He's a guy that has actually had decent success against Seattle in his career. He's also a guy that has bounced back off bad starts very nicely throughout his career. I do expect him to be successful tonight, and although that LAA pen is dismal, I actually feel comfortable going up against a Seattle pen that is far from reliable themselves.
Fact is, Ian Snell is a strikeout pitcher. The guy will not go deep into any game, and if he's not striking people out,. he's getting shelled. LA is a very very very good contact lineup, and they'll be tough to K all evening long. If they can get to the Seattle bullpen by the 6th inning, I feel very good about their late inning chances. Especially since Saunders is a guy that can/will go deep into a game if he's not pitching like garbage. Let's expect a good Saunders bounceback, and those Angels bats to hit Snell with some success. 1 unit play LAA!
William Kidd
Cleveland at Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox
We are playing on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX today as the Indians are 4-22 in their last 26 during game 1 of a series, the Indians are 2-15 in Mastersons last 17 starts and the White Sox are 41-11 in their last 52 games as a home favorite of -201 or greater. Masterson is 1-12 with the Indians, has lost 11 consecutive decisions and has gone 17 straight starts without a victory. Masterson likely will be moved to the bullpen if he is taken out of the rotation, but the Indians desperately want him to succeed as a starter so they have something to show for last season's trade that saw catcher Victor Martinez go to the Red Sox. The same pitchers matched up in Cleveland on May 24 with the White Sox winning 7-2. The outing typified Masterson's season. He threw 44 pitches in the first inning when Chicago scored four times. He lasted four innings and gave up five runs. Danks wasn't brilliant but was good enough to get the win, allowing two runs in five innings.