Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday June, 8

Marc Lawrence

Chicago Cubs at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs and Twins meet in the opener of a three-game Interleague matchup on Minnesota Friday night where Travis Wood takes the mound for Chicago looking to reverse a wrong. That because he stand 0-2 on the road this season despite a sharp 2.13 ERA as opposed to being 2-0 at home with a gaudy 7.36 ERA. With Twins hurler P. J. Walters in struggling current form and just 1-3 at home in his career team starts, look for the averages to even out and work in Wood's favor here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Cubs.

Rob Vinciletti

Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Washington Nationals

We want to play on certain road teams off a home dog loss like Washington that scored 2 or less runs on 5 or more hits, vs an opponent off a home favored win. These road teams have won 9 of 12 times the past few seasons. Boston is just 3-6 as a home dog from =100 to =125 and will have to face S. Strasburg tonight. In his road starts he has a 2.03 ea with the Nationals winning 4 of 5 times. Tonight he opposes Doubront who has been up and down and has a 4.33 home era. Look for Washington to take game one tonight.

Ben Burns

Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Atlanta Braves

The Braves are a perfect 6-0 the last six times that they hosted the Jays, dating back to 2009. I feel that this evening's pitching matchup gives them an excellent chance at extending that streak.

Beachy hasn't had much luck lately. He's still been pitching well though. Last time out, he allowed two runs, on just three hits, through 6 1/3 innings. In his previous start, he allowed one earned run, also on three hits. He's now allowed two earned runs or less in 10 of 11 starts this season, allowing four the other time.

For the season, Beachy has an outstanding 1.87 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He's been at his best at home, too. In four home starts, he's got a superb 0.96 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .162 against him here.

Note that Beachy is 1-0 with a stellar 1.50 ERA against Toronto. In six innings against the Jays, he allowed just four hits, while striking out 11. The Braves won 5-1.

On the other hand, Drabek has not pitched well lately and he's also been terrible on the road. In five home starts, Drabek is 3-2 and has a 2.51 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. However, in six road starts, he's 1-4 with an ugly 6.98 ERA and 1.99 WHIP.

Walks have been a major problem for Drabek, especially outside of Canada. In fact, in 29 2/3 road innings, he's walked a whopping 27 batters, striking out 19. Having more walks than K's is never good, particularly when walking roughly a batter every single inning.

While Drabek has allowed eight home runs in 29 road innings, Beachy has allowed zero home runs in 28 home innings.

The Braves are 44-24 (+5.2) the past few seasons as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. During that stretch, they're also 21-12 (+8.8) when playing in an Inter league game. Consider laying the wood.

Dave Cokin

Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants
Pick: Texas Rangers

The Rangers have been lousy lately, but this is a break loose spot. Barry Zito has shaky control, and he's the type of lefty Texas usually eats up. Matt Harrison is hot, so I'll recommend the road favored Rangers tonight.

Jim Feist

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox
Pick: Houston Astros

Houston has one of its best arms on the mound in Wandy Rodriguez (4-4, 3.14 ERA), who doesn't walk anyone and is a decent strikeout pitcher. The Chicago White Sox have cooled off after a red-hot run and they have a losing record at home. Starter Gavin Floyd (4-5, 5.32 ERA) has been terrible and is saddled with a 12.51 ERA his last three starts! Floyd allowed five runs (all earned) over five innings and did not factor in the decision Saturday against the Mariners. And he's worse at home with a 5.63 ERA. Play the Astros.

SPORTS WAGERS

Russia +126 over Czech Republic

Russia was strong in qualifying, boasting the best overall attack and defense stats with 17 goals scored in 10 games and only four goals conceded. Keep an eye out for Russian prodigy Alan Dzagoev in this upcoming match. The 21-year-old attacking midfielder notched four goals and an assist in his eight appearances in the qualifying phase for his country and is a goal threat whenever he is on the pitch. Andrei Arshavin is an excellent passer and alongside Dzagoev will be a hand-full for the Czech's to deal with. This Czech side faced a battle simply to qualify, eventually nipping Scotland to a runners-up spot and then edging out Montenegro in a playoff to book their place. Russia is the better side today and will be asking questions offensively and the shaky, untested Czech defense may not have all the answers. Play: Russia +126 (Risking 2 units).

Poland +106 over Greece Pinnacle

Poland will be looking to Robert Lewandowski, who lead Dortmund to a German Bundesliga Title with 22 goals, to lead them too. They’ll also be looking to two other Dortmund teammates, Lukas Piszczek and Jake Błaszczykowski to provide instant team chemistry. In goal Arsenal keeper Wojciech Szczęsny looks to backstop an impressive Poland defense, which had clean sheets in its last four games played. The Greeks had an easy Group in Qualification. Their goals for and against is solid but the teams’ they played were of the cupcake variety. Against a strong Polish side playing in their own back yard, the Greeks will be facing a team at a higher level than they have played so far this year. Play: Poland (Risking 2 units).

Charlie Brenneman +165 over Erick Silva

Erick Silva is a blue chip prospect and a possible future title challenger. He has a 13-2 record with 11 of those fights coming on the Brazilian circuit. He has a pretty well rounded skill set and is also a very dangerous foe with 10 of his wins coming between the bells. Charlie Brenneman is a wrestling based fighter who wins and loses based on how effective he is able to use it. This is going to be a very tough test for Silva who has never faced an American wrestler of Charlie's caliber. The Brazilian MMA scene is obviously very good and the sheer number of Brazilians in the UFC is a testament to that. But the fact is that the most of the best wrestlers are in the USA. Silva is being overvalued due to the fact that he has blitzed many of his opponents but in actuality this matchup of styles favors Brenneman and we’ll look for him to win in a decision. Play: Brenneman +165 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. YANKEES -1½ +174 over N.Y. Mets

This one is all about fading Johan Santana the first game out after he tossed that unlikely no-hitter against the Cardinals. After the fifth inning or thereabouts, intensity levels skyrocket for pitchers who are throwing such a game. Santana deserves a nod here for throwing the first no-hitter in the Mets’ 51-year history on Friday but let’s not ignore the toll that takes and the 134 pitches it took to get it. It was also his second consecutive shutout and it’s very likely that the Yankees get to him early. The Yanks are hot too, having won 10 of their past 14 games. Hiroki Kuroda has been somewhat erratic of late but we’re not endorsing him. We’re endorsing the Yankees to get to Santana early and subsequently add a few more against a very shaky Mets pen. Play: N.Y. Yankees -1½ +174 (Risking 2 units).

San Diego +147 over MILWAUKEE

Against lefties, Edinson Volquez has struggled. However, against righties he can be downright dominant and as luck would have it, he’ll face a heavy right-handed batting line-up here. Volquez has a strong 50% groundball rate and 60 K’s in 71 frames. His Achilles Heel has been issuing walks (39) but most of those have come against lefties, where he has trouble finding the plate. With a little support, improved control vs. LH bats and some better luck against righties, Volquez could prove profitable the rest of the way. San Diego recently activated Carlos Quentin and he has gone yard five times in his first 23 AB’s. Shaun Marcum has been hit hard in three of his last four home games, where he’s sporting a 4.02 ERA. Marcum is a fly-ball pitcher and while he’s consistent, he pitches for an inconsistent team that is five games under .500 and two games under at home. Play: San Diego +147 (Risking 2 units).

Kansas City +124 over PITTSBURGH

The Pirates are coming off a big series win in Cincinnati to pull within two games of first place. Aside from the letdown possibility, the Pirates own the majors worst batting average at home (.214) and that makes them too big a risk. Luke Hochevar can’t catch a break, as a 35% hit rate and a 55% strand rate have been the main culprits behind his bloated 6.69 ERA. Six of Hochevar’s last seven starts have come against the Yanks twice, the Orioles twice, the White Sox and the Tigers. He’ll find the going much easier here. Erik Bedard has spent as much time on the DL over the past three years (313 days) than almost any pitcher in the bigs. When healthy, he’s good but it’s only a matter of time before his back, shoulder or elbow give out and we could be seeing signs of it right now. Bedard has allowed four runs or more in three of his last four starts and he’ll be facing a formidable opponent here. The Royals own the AL’s fourth best team batting average behind the Yankees, Red Sox and Tigers. Rarely are the Pirates favored by this much and while improved, they don’t merit this tag. Play: Kansas City +124 (Risking 2 units).

Jimmy Boyd

Minnesota Twins -130

The Cubs are just 4-18 in their last 22 games, including 1-13 on the road during this span. They'll have a difficult time regrouping against a Minnesota club that is quietly playing some good baseball. The Twins have won 7 of their last 9. Plus, they are an impressive 40-14 in their last 54 interleague home games. The Cubs, meanwhile, are 1-7 in their last 8 interleague games and 8-22 in their last 30 interleague road games. Dating back to last season, Chicago's Wood is just 4-9 on the money line in his last 13 starts. The Twins, meanwhile, have won 3 of Walters' last 4 starts. It is also worth mentioning that the Twins have won 5 of their last 6 versus the Cubs. We'll take Minnesota.

Jeff Alexander

Washington Nationals -106

Riding the golden arm of Strasburg here at a very affordable price against a lineup that isn't familiar with his stuff. Strasburg is 6-1 with a 2.35 ERA on the season, including 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA on the road. The Nationals are 10-2 in his last 12 starts and 8-1 in his last 9 road starts. The Red Sox are 5-11 in their last 16 games as a home underdog, 5-12 in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning record and 7-17 in their last 24 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet Washington.

Dave Price

Chicago White Sox -138

The White Sox, who have won 15 of their last 19, get the call at home as our free play against a Houston club that has dropped 10 of its last 12 overall and 50 of its last 65 on the road. The Astros have even lost 8 of their last 11 against the White Sox. We'll take the South Siders.

Wunderdog

Connecticut at Indiana
Pick: Indiana -5

The Connecticut Sun has built its team with quality former University of Connecticut players. It fits their geographical location to perfection, and they are a tough out at home. The Sun is coming off of four straight home games, and now have to go face an Indiana team that is terrific at home. The Fever are in a bad mood off their first loss of the season on the road at New York. The Fever are 17-4 in their last 21 here and always play at a high level, and beat this Connecticut team by 12 here the last time they came to Indiana. The Sun could be a bit rusty here, and in the past that has been the case as they are 3-7 ATS off three or more days of rest. That is quite the contrary for the Fever who stands in at 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off of three days or more of rest, and the Sun just 1-5 ATS here in their last six. Play on Indiana.

MLB Predictions

Minnesota Twins -125

We bet against the Cubs yesterday for a winner and we will do so tonight in interleague play. The Cubs are just 19-38 on the season and 7-23 on the road. The Minnesota Twins are 22-34 on the year and 9-17 at home. Chicago is just 1-6 in their last 7 and 4-18 in their last 22 games overall. Minnesota has enjoyed a bit of recent success winning 3 straight series' and going 7-2 over their last 9 games. Southpaw Travis Wood will go for the Cubs tonight, and he is 0-2 on the season with a 4.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and .176 opponents batting average over his 4 starts. His numbers have been solid in the Majors if you throw out his May 28th start against the Padres, but in AAA over 7 starts he had a 4.57 ERA and 3-3 record with batters hitting .294 against him. Last season with Cincinnati he went 6-6 with a 4.84 ERA. P.J. Walters will counter for the Twins and he is 2-1 with a 3.69 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and .261 opponents batting average this year in the Majors. In 6 AAA starts he went 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and .256 opponents batting average. Take note that the Cubs are just 8-22 in their last 30 interleague road games, and 1-7 in their last 8 interleague games overall. The Twins are 6-2 in their last 8 interleague games, and 40-14 in their last 54 interleague home games. Chicago is just finding ways to lose these days, while Minnesota has enjoyed some recent success. I'll back Walters and the Twins tonight at home against Chicago.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Baltimore/ Philadelphia Over 9: Boy if there ever was a game that looked too easy, at least from a statistical standpoint, this is it. The are the games that scare me a little because you can look inside ALL the number and not fin much or anything that would indicate that these teams won't put up 10+ runs. The Only real question mark could be the Philly offense. Can they score enough runs here? I feel they can. Philly averages just 3.5 rpg at home on the year, but away from home that number jumps to 4.8 rpg. Nearly 5 runs there. Now tonight they will face Jake Arrieta , who has allowed 20 ER's in his last 4 home starts, on his way to posting a home ERA of 6.43. Baltimore as a team has allowed 5.4 rpg in Jake's starts overall and 6.3 rpg in his home starts. Philly should be able to hit the 5 run mark in this one. Baltimore comes in struggling a little on offense (2.7 rpg in last 10), but their last 9 games were on the road and they do average 4.5 rpg at home. They will also be taking on a struggling pitcher in Joe Blanton.Joe comes in having allowed 5 ER's or more in each of his last 4 starts and he has a 10.87 ERA with a 2.09 WHIP in his last 3 starts, so he is not in good form right now. He has a 6.30 ERA, with a 1.57 WHIP on the road and the Phils as a team have allowed 5 rpg in his road starts. So we should expect at least 5 runs from the O's as well. As you can see this looks real easy and I hope it plays out like it should.

Houston/ Chicago (AL) Over 8: The Houston pitching staff has been blistered of late, as they have a 7.83 ERA in their last 10 games and have allowed 8.5 rpg over that stretch. Wow that puts us over the total right there. LOL. Well we'll do a little more digging anyway. Wandy Rodriguez is the Ace of this staff, but hew does come in having allowed 11 ER's in his last 2 starts. Wandy does have a 2.77 ERA on the road this year, but still the Astros as a team have allowed 4.3 rpg in his road starts. That's half of this total right there. Tonight he will be taking on a Chicago team that scores well at home. The ChiSox do hit just .226 vs lefties at home, but they still put up 4.7 rp/9 vs them and score 5.06 rpg overall at home on the year. So the Sox should easily get at least 4 runs in this one and in looking at the way Gavin Floyd has been pitching of late, there is no reason to believe that Houston won't be able to plate at least 4 runs as well. Gavin comes in struggling, having allowed 5 ER's or more in each of his last 4 starts, while posting an ERA of 11.90 over that stretch. Gavin has a winning record at home, but with a 5.62 ERA and that indicates high scoring games. His home starts have averaged 10.14 rpg, while his last 4 starts overall have put up 14 rpg. Houston does average 3.9 rpg on the road, but should be good for a few more vs this guy. Another game with OVER-whelming numbers to support a high scoring game and I just can't see how each team doesn't score at least 4 runs each here.

Arizona/ Oakland Over 9: Boy to take an over with a team that was shutout in 3 of their last 4 road games may be a bit risky, but I feel that they will get their offense gong tonight. Actually they have their offense going right now as they are off a home series with Texas in which they averaged 6 rpg. That was in a pitcher friendly park as well. Tonight they are in a hitter friendly park that has yielded 9.4 rpg on the year. Daniel Hudson dose come in in good form as he has a 2.61 ERA in his last 3 starts, but two things stand out about those starts that makes the numbers a bit false. 1st is that 2 of the three starts were vs offensively challenged teams (Pittsburgh and at San Diego)and the 2nd is that his last 3 starts were all during the day, where he has pitched well this year. He has a 14.73 ERA in his lone night start on the year. Plus in his only start vs the A's (2010) he allowed 5 ER's in just 5 innings of work. Tom Milone has been pitching well of late, with a 2.18 ERA in his last 3 starts, but on the road this year he has struggled with a 6.23 ERA. Arizona is not a great hitting team and they do score just 4.3 rpg at home, but they do average 5.2 rp/9 off of lefty starters at home. The D-Backs have also allowed 5.04 rpg at Chase this year as well. This should be the hatrick of the 3 games that reach DD in runs scored.

Black Widow

Los Angeles Dodgers +110

The Los Angeles Dodgers continue to play well despite being without Matt Kemp. Owners of the league's best record in baseball, the Dodgers (37-21) have won four straight while scoring a combined 20 runs in the process. We are getting an excellent price on the Dodgers tonight as an underdog to the lowly Seattle Mariners. Nathan Eovaldi has pitched very well in two starts for the Dodgers, posting a 2.84 ERA. Kevin Millwood has been decent for the Mariners this season, but he has really struggled at home. Millwood is 1-2 with a 7.08 ERA and 1.820 WHIP in four home starts this season. The Dodgers are 41-18 in their last 59 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Mariners are 1-6 in their last 7 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take Los Angeles on the Money Line.