Jack Jones
Phillies/Orioles OVER 9
The Philadelphia Phillies and Baltimore Orioles are primed to score a ton of runs today against two of the worst starters in baseball. Joe Blanton and Jake Arrieta have simply been rocked this season, especially of late.
Blanton is 4-6 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.362 WHIP in 11 starts and one relief appearance in 2012. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 10.57 ERA and 2.087 WHIP over his last three starts, allowing 18 earned runs 32 base runners and six home runs over 15 1/3 innings.
Arrieta is 2-7 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.328 WHIP in 12 starts this season. Baltimore's right-hander is 0-3 with an 8.59 ERA and 1.772 WHIP over his last three starts, allowing 14 earned runs and 26 base runners in 14 2/3 innings.
Blanton is 11-1 to the OVER when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons. Arrieta is 21-11 to the OVER in all games over the last 2 seasons. Arrieta is 12-2 to the OVER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Blanton is 18-6 to the OVER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
Steve Janus
Braves -1.5 +129
Congrats to those that backed my free pick on the Miami Heat -1.5 last night! Currently 4-1 over my last five free picks, and ready to add to the total with a rare run-line winner on Friday.
First things first, if you are comfortable laying the big juice(-165 to -175), go right ahead. If you want to avoid the possibility of a huge loss, I strongly recommend the run-line.
In order to cover a run-line, you like to look for a hot offense and a lopsided pitching matchup. The Braves are 6-1 in their last seven games overall. In those six wins, they are averaging 6.5 runs/game.
Hard to see that offense slowing down at home against Toronto's Kyle Drabek, who is 1-4 with a 6.98 ERA and 1.989 WHIP in five road starts.
The Braves will counter with youngster Brandon Beachy, who is 5-4 with a 1.87 ERA and .954 WHIP in 11 starts. As good as those numbers are, Beachy is 2-1 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.786 WHIP at home.
It's also worth noting that Beachy started against the Blue Jays at home last year. He allowed just one run over six innings of a 5-1 Braves win.
Bryan Power
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners
This looks like a trap spot for the Dodgers, who are coming off a four-game sweep of the Phillies in Philadelphia. They arrive in Seattle with the best record in baseball to face a Mariners team that has been producing some surprising results in recent days. They are 4-3 over the last week, averaging a shocking 7.7 runs per game, including that memorable 21 run effort against Texas. The put up eight runs in both of their wins over the Angels here at Safeco Field, taking two of three from LA's "other team."
Though Kevin Millwood has struggled at home this season (7.08 ERA in 4 starts), he has pitched well overall of late (3.00 ERA last 3 starts) and he'll be happy to face the Dodgers lineup without Matt Kemp tonight. Nathan Eovaldi is nothing special for the Dodgers as he's lost his first two starts since being called up from the minors.
Sean Murphy
Chicago Cubs @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Minnesota Twins
The Cubs continue to flounder around near the bottom of the MLB standings, and have been absolutely terrible on the road, going 7-23 following another series loss in Milwaukee.
Having dropped six of their last seven games overall, there's no sign of a Chicago turnaround. While there's only 3.5 games separating the Cubbies and Twins, there's a much wider gap than that given how the two teams are playing right now.
Minnesota has plenty of upside at the moment. The Twins are 7-2 over their last nine games, and have actually posted an above .500 record (15-13) dating all the way back to May 8th.
While they remain a weak 9-17 at Target Field this season, they did manage to sweep the A's in a three-game series here last week.
Note that Minnesota's offense has come to life, hitting .271 as a team, and averaging 5.4 runs per contest over its last five games. The Twins have been enjoying success against left-handed pitching (they'll face another southpaw tonight) all season, particularly here at home, where they hit .281 and average just shy of 5.0 runs per nine innings.
Travis Wood is the lefty the Twins will be facing tonight. He was terrific in his last start, allowing only three hits and one earned run over seven innings against the Giants. Unfortunately for him, the Cubs still lost the game 2-0. Note that Wood was tagged for seven hits and six earned runs over just five innings against the Padres two starts back. His inconsistent nature is one of the main reasons the Reds were willing to part with him.
Working in support of Wood is a Cubs bullpen that has been pretty awful for much of the season, posting a collective 4.20 ERA. Over the last five games, Cubs relievers have recorded an ugly 4.85 ERA.
P.J. Walters will take the ball for the Twins. He's coming off his worst outing of the season, but Minnesota still managed to win the game by a 7-4 score in Cleveland. Walters gave up eight hits and four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in that start. Prior to that, he had held each of his first four opponents to three earned runs or less this season.
Walters isn't dominant by any means. He doesn't strike out many guys, and has had some trouble with his command. But he doesn't have to be perfect against a Cubs lineup that has been held to three runs or less in six of their last seven games, and average just north of 2.9 runs per nine innings on the season.
Note that the Twins bullpen has lowered its ERA to 3.44 after a tough start to the season. Over their last 10 games, Twins relievers have combined to post an outstanding 1.60 ERA.
The Twins will likely be without Joe Mauer (bruised thumb) again on Friday night, but the rest of the lineup has stepped up in his absence, and if he is able to play, that's just an added bonus.
Rob Veno
Houston/ Chicago Over 8
We have a lot of favorable factors here pointing toward a potentially high scoring game. For starters, White Sox RH Gavin Floyd has been in terrible form lately going 1-2 with 2.08 WHIP and 11.90 ERA over his last four starts. Floyd has struggled with his command needing an average of 18.4 pitches per inning during the stretch and he’s been up in the strike zone and behind in the count consistently. Houston brings a solid hitting team into this series (.266 BA & .723 OPS vs. RH) and they’ve been hot lately scoring five runs or more in seven of their last 10 games. Chicago has been strong offensively as well and they got Paul Konerko (.371/.451/1.069) back last night. Konerko has five hits in five at-bats in his career vs. Astros lefty Wandy Rodriguez and team mate Adam Dunn has had great success against him as well going 10-23 (.435) with five extra base hits. Like Floyd, it’s been a struggle recently for Rodriguez who has allowed 19 hits (6 home runs) and 11 earned runs in his last two starts which were only five innings each. Considering the subpar numbers posted by the White Sox bullpen at home (4.32 ERA, 14 HR allowed in 97 1/3 innings & 10 combined blown saves and losses), the late inning door is wide open for Houston to score. Minus closer Brett Myers, the Astros pen has been a mess also getting scored on in 11 of their last 12 outings with an ERA of 7.14 and WHIP of 1.76. In this dramatically hitter friendly park, I’ll back OVER 8 -1.15.
Sammy P Sports
Chicago at Minnesota
Play: Minnesota
Interleague play begins today and there is nothing sweeter than American League teams on their home field. It is known that I have been cashing tickets with the Minnesota Twins for the past two weeks backing this club during a favorable part of their schedule and taking advantage of some of the young arms filling into the rotation. One of those young pitchers, PJ Walters, takes the mound tonight against the lowly Chicago Cubs as a small favorite and certainly within backing range again here. Walters by no means has been pitching lights out since he has been inserted into the rotation, but he has been able to get the big out when needed. The Twins give him plenty of run support during his starts. Chicago comes into Minnesota losing 13 of their last 14 games on the road. Don't look for any improvement here tonight from the Cubs as Minnesota once again cashes a ticket for us.