SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (20-15) at Cincinnati (19-15)
The top two teams in the National League Central kick off a three-game series at Great American Ballpark, with young Cardinals left-hander Jaime Garcia (3-2, 1.18 ERA) slated to oppose veteran Reds hurler Aaron Harang (2-4, 6.02).
Despite having ace Chris Carpenter on the mound, St. Louis fell to Houston 4-1 on Thursday, getting swept in the three-game home series by the lowly Astros while getting outscored 19-10. The Cardinals have lost four of their last five and seven of nine (2-4 on the road), and they’re in additional slumps of 4-9 against winning teams and 1-5 versus right-handed starters. On the bright side, Tony LaRussa’s troops have won 13 of 19 on Friday and 30 of 39 when opening a series.
The Reds have won a season-best five straight games – all against N.L. Central rivals – to pull within a half-game of St. Louis in the division race. Cincinnati completed a three-game sweep of the Pirates on Wednesday, cruising to a 5-0 win, its second straight shutout victory. The Reds, who have outscored their opponents 35-6 during their five-game winning streak, are on surges of 5-2 at home, 5-0 against left-handed starters and 10-1 at home versus southpaws.
This is already the third time these rivals have squared off in a series this season. St. Louis took two of three in each of the first two series, winning those four games by a combined score of 29-12. The Cardinals are 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head matchups.
Garcia has been incredible for St. Louis this season, giving up two earned runs or fewer and pitching at least six innings in all six of his starts. On Saturday at Pittsburgh, he allowed just one run on seven hits with two walks and seven strikeouts in six innings, but he was a tough-luck 2-0 loser. Despite Garcia’s outstanding personal results, the Redbirds are just 3-3 when he pitches, and Garcia is only 2-2 on the road despite a 1.88 ERA (five earned runs allowed in 24 innings).
Harang is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in his last three starts, including Saturday’s 14-2 home rout of the Cubs in which he gave up two runs on seven hits with one walk and nine strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings. The 32-year-old San Diego native has held eight of his last 10 opponents to three earned runs or fewer dating to last August, giving up two earned runs or fewer in five of those contests.
With Harang on the hill, Cincinnati is still mired in slumps of 4-11 overall, 2-7 at home (1-3 this year), 2-8 against N.L. Central foes, 1-4 in series openers and 0-5 on Friday. He’s 1-2 with a 5.18 ERA in his four home outings.
While tonight is Garcia’s first career appearance against the Reds, Harang has made 22 career starts against St. Louis, going 7-12 with a 4.57 ERA. Cincinnati is just 3-7 in Harang’s last 10 starts against the Cardinals (1-4 last five), including going 0-2 this season with the right-hander allowing seven runs (six earned) in 11 innings (4.91 ERA).
St. Louis is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 22-10-1 overall, 8-2 on the road, 11-4-1 within the division, 5-0 on Friday, 9-1 in series openers and 20-8-1 against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the under has cashed in all six of Garcia’s starts this season, including all four on the road. Meanwhile, Cincinnati carries “under” trends of 4-1 in series openers, 4-1-3 against winning teams, 10-4-4 at home against lefty starters and 8-3 when Harang starts at home. However, the over is 3-0-2 in the Reds’ last five home games and 13-2-1 in their last 16 after a day off.
Finally, the under is 3-0-1 in the last four series meetings, but 10 of the last 13 clashes in Cincinnati have hurdled the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (22-12) at N.Y. Yankees (22-12)
The Yankees shoot for their fifth straight home victory when the open a three-game series against the Twins, with A.J. Burnett (4-1, 3.40) taking the hill for New York opposite Twins right-hander Scott Baker (4-2, 4.57).
Minnesota concluded a nine-game homestand with Wednesday’s 3-2 victory over the White Sox, its third win in the last four games. The Twins have won seven of 10 overall, and they’re on further hot streaks of 39-19 overall, 35-17 against right-handed starters, 5-2 versus winning teams, 38-14 on Friday and 20-6 in series openers. However, they’ve lost 42 of 62 against the A.L. East and six of eight after a day off.
New York finished off a seven-game road trip with Thursday’s 6-0 loss at Detroit. The Yankees have followed up a six-game winning streak by losing four of their last five. However, the defending champs remain on upticks of 98-43 overall, 48-11 at Yankee Stadium (10-2 this year), 37-15 against the A.L. Central, 45-22 against southpaw starters, 40-14 at home versus left-handed starters and 5-2 on Friday.
The Yankees swept the Twins out of the best-of-5 American League Division Series last October, finishing the year 10-0 against Minnesota. This has been a completely one-sided rivalry, with New York winning 50 of the last 66 meetings overall and 27 of the last 32 in the Bronx.
Baker is coming off consecutive home wins over the Tigers (10-4) and Orioles (6-1). In Saturday’s contest against Baltimore, Baker delivered his strongest performance of the season, going a season-high eight innings while allowing just one run – a solo homer – and three hits with no walks and eight strikeouts. However, the Louisiana native has failed to get out of the fifth inning in two of his three starts on the road, where he’s 1-1 with a 5.74 ERA this season.
Baker has faced New York three times, going 2-1 with a 4.20 ERA. In his only appearance in the Bronx – at old Yankee Stadium in September 2006 – Baker gave up just a run on two hits in five innings en route to a 6-1 victory.
Burnett is looking to bounce back from his worst start of the year, as he got rocked for nine runs (eight earned) in 4 1/3 innings at Boston on Sunday, losing 9-3. In two starts prior to that, the veteran right-hander had allowed just one unearned run in 15 1/3 innings. New York is still 11-4 in Burnett’s last 15 starts overall, 17-4 in his last 21 home starts and 6-1 in his last seven against A.L. Central foes.
Only two of Burnett’s seven starts this season have come at Yankee Stadium, and he yielded just one unearned run in 14 1/3 innings, with New York crushing the Rangers 7-3 and the Orioles 4-1. Also, Burnett has a 2.81 ERA in his last four starts against the Twins (all Minnesota losses), including leading New York to a 4-3, 12-inning home playoff victory in October as he allowed just one run on three hits in six innings. Burnett is 2-1 with a 3.43 ERA in six career starts against Minnesota.
The Twins are on “under” runs of 4-0 overall, 20-4-2 against the A.L. Eas and 5-1-2 after a day off, but the over is 6-2-2 in Baker’s last 10 starts, including 3-1-1 on the road. Also, all four of New York’s games in Detroit stayed under the total, and the under is 16-7-1 in its last 24 home games, 8-3-1 in its last 12 against the A.L. Central, 10-2-1 in Burnett’s last 13 home starts , 6-1 in his last seven against the A.L. Central, 6-1 in his last seven Friday efforts and 8-3 the last 11 times Burnett has opened a series.
Finally, the under is 29-11-4 in the last 44 Twins-Yankees battles in the Bronx, and all three playoff meetings in October stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
DUNKEL INDEX
Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs
The Pirates look to take advantage of a Cubs team that is 1-6 in Tom Gorzelanny's last 7 starts. Pittsburgh is the pick (+180) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+180)
Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Burres) 14.430; Cubs (Gorzelanny) 13.386
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-220); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+180); N/A
Game 953-954: St. Louis at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 13.850; Cincinnati (Harang) 14.882
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+120); Over
Game 955-956: NY Mets at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Perez) 15.004; Florida (Sanchez) 16.110
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-135); Under
Game 957-958: Arizona at Atlanta (7:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 13.635; Atlanta (Kawakami) 16.698
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 3; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120); Over
Game 959-960: Philadelphia at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Moyer) 16.354; Milwaukee (Wolf) 14.913
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+110); Under
Game 961-962: Washington at Colorado (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Hernandez) 16.084; Colorado (Jimenez) 14.959
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-250); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+210); Over
Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ortiz) 15.268; San Diego (Garland) 16.965
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Diego (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-145); Under
Game 965-966: Houston at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Paulino) 15.063; San Francisco (Wellemeyer) 15.993
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-145); Under
Game 967-968: Cleveland at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 15.057; Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.597
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+120); Under
Game 969-970: Texas at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harden) 15.265; Toronto (Cecil) 16.361
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-130); Under
Game 971-972: Boston at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 15.906; Detroit (Scherzer) 16.875
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+115); Over
Game 973-974: Minnesota at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 15.967; NY Yankees (Burnett) 17.171
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-180); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-180); Over
Game 975-976: Seattle at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Fister) 15.125; Tampa Bay (Davis) 14.883
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+145); Under
Game 977-978: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 14.964; Kansas City (Meche) 15.313
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+115); Under
Game 979-980: Oakland at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 14.560; LA Angels (Saunders) 14.800
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); Over
NHL
Philadelphia at Boston
The Bruins look to clinch the series and build on their 7-1 record in their last 8 games as a home favorite. Boston is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Bruins favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125)
Game 27-28: Philadelphia at Boston (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.324; Boston 12.724
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125); Over
Karl Garrett
Arizona at ATLANTA (-120)
G-Man on a 6-1 comp play run the past 7 days.
Friday night I say it is about time Kenshin Kawakami notches his first win of the season. Kawakami is currently 0-6 with a 5.73 ERA. This will only be his second home start of the year, and with the Braves fresh off a 3 game sweep in Milwaukee in which their offense actually plated some runs, I expect the "home cooking" to give Kawakami some support this Friday night.
Atlanta is 8-4 at home this season, and they are facing an Arizona team that is skidding right now, having lost 6 in a row.
Ian Kennedy will take the hill for 'Zona, and he has been pitching much better than his counterpart, but with his mates struggling right now, and on the road after getting swept at home against division rival Los Angeles, I can see Kennedy having a rough outing tonight.
G-Man on the Braves to keep their win streak alive and kicking.
3♦ ATLANTA
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Dodgers (+125) at SAN DIEGO
I'm on a 95-74-3 FREE play run and tonight I've got a comp winner on the diamond as I am going to grab the plus-money with the Dodgers visiting San Diego to take on the Padres.
I know the pitching matchup doesn’t favor the Dodgers tonight, but I’m looking at the offensive numbers and can tell you the Dodgers can light up a scoreboard while the Padres have to grind it out to win games. I’m going with the offensive firepower in the Los Angeles lineup tonight.
It’s Ramon Ortiz (1-1, 5.16 ERA) going for the Dodgers tonight, making his first start since 2007. But don’t kid yourself, the guy knows how to pitch and had a three-year run with the Angels in the early 2000s when he put up a 44-33 record and threw seven complete games. He’s seen it all and he knows what he’s doing out on the hill.
More importantly is the fact he has an offense behind him that mashes the ball. The Dodgers are hitting .288 off right-handed pitchers this season and they’ve got guys in Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loney and even Casey Blake that will do some damage with their bats.
San Diego has to get great pitching to win because they don’t have the offensive ability of L.A.
The Dodgers are 53-26 against N.L. West rivals, they’ve won four in a row, and they have beaten the last four right-handers they’ve faced. I’m going to play the Dodgers to get this one in San Diego tonight. Get the plus-money on Los Angeles in this one.
3♦ L.A. DODGERS
Marc Lawrence
St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
When the Reds host the Cardinals in the opener of a three game weekend series against St. Louis this evening they will do so knowing Aaron Harang has cashed six of his last seven team starts in May, including the last four in a row. Harang is also in terrific KW form with one walk against 21 strikeouts in his last three starts. That makes for a live home dog and with that we'll back them here tonight.
Cajun Sports
Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants welcome the Houston Astros to the bay area for a three-game weekend set with the first game set for Friday night. Houston is 12-21 on the year and 10-18 against right-handed starters this season. The Astros are only averaging 3.1 runs per game on the road with a batting average of .221. Houston will hang their hopes on starter Felipe Paulino who is 0-5 on the year with an ERA of 4.67. When Paulino takes the hill his team is 0-13 (-14.2 Units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons and 1-10 (-8.7 Units) as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. San Francisco is 18-14 on the season and 12-7 versus right-handed starters. The Giants average 4.8 runs per game when facing right-handed starters with a batting average of .273. San Francisco will send Todd Wellemeyer to the bump with his 1-3 mark and an ERA of 5.97. His record improves to 1-1 with an ERA of 4.05 when he takes the hill at home. Wellemeyer is 16-5 (+11.9 Units) versus teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game on the season. The Giants are 30-11 (+15.2 Units) as a home favorite of -125 to -150 over the last 3 seasons and 18-5 (+13.1 Units) in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. A check of the database reveals three key technical situations that are active for Game One of this series. The Astros are 65-101 on the road and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $2480 when playing against them. The Giants are 41-25 since September 19, 2008 and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1535 and 26-7 at home and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1770. Finally we have a system that tells us to Play ON MLB NL home teams in this price range with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season, starting a pitcher who walked five or more batters during his last start. Playing on these home favorites has produced a record of 31-7 for 81.6 percent winners and a profit of +22.4 units. With solid technical support we will back the host here as the Giants take Game One of this series on Friday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* San Francisco Giants 6 Houston Astros 4
Rob Vinciletti
St Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: St Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are fresh off a home sweep. However they were the ones who were swept. They were dispatched rather easily once again by an average Houston team. The Cardinals have now lost 7 of their last 9. Tonight they travel to Cincinatti to take on the Reds. St.Louis will send under rated J.Garcia to the mound. Garcia has quietly put up solid numbers. In 38 innings he has allowed just 5 earned runs, good for a dynamic 1.18 era. The Reds will counter with over rated A.Harang tonight. Harang has a 5.18 home era and is just 7-12 with a 4.57 era vs the Cardinals. Ironically this will be his 3rd start already vs St.Louis. In the first 2 meetings he allowed 7 runs in 11 innings. However he has surrendered 3 home runs. Look for thr Cardinals to get untracked here tonight.
David Chan
Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays are 20-16 this season, but they’re 18-9 against teams not named “Red Sox” and “Rays”. They took two out of three in the season-opening series in Texas, and that included chasing Rich Harden in the fourth inning after Harden had thrown 90 pitches. That’s not quite what we’ve come to expect from the Jays’ bats, who are usually instructed to swing at any fastball within three feet of the strike zone, but it worked. And the Jays can get to Harden here again too—via the free pass if necessary.
Harden hasn’t seen much of Toronto in his career, but his teams are 1-6 against the Jays over six years. It’s tough to put a lot of stock in games from 2004 and so on, but what it tells us is this: Harden’s not going to walk into Toronto thinking he owns the place.
Jays’ starter Brett Cecil has been good in four starts this year (ERA 3.12, WHIP 1.00, 24/7 K/BB). His changeup is getting better all the time.
Black Widow
1* on A's/Angels OVER 8.5
Joe Saunders has been atrocious at home this season, and Dallas Braden has struggled against the Angels in his career. Saunders is 0-4 with an 8.19 ERA and 1.928 WHIP in four home starts, giving up 17 earned runs and 36 base runners in 18.2 innings. The OVER is 3-1 in those four home starts. Braden is 2-3 with a 4.64 ERA in six career starts against the Angels. In his last 2 starts vs. Los Angeles, Braden has given up 9 earned runs and 17 base runners in 11 innings. Yes, Braden did pitch a perfect game at home last time out. But Braden has been anything but perfect on the road this year, going 1-1 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.700 WHIP in 2 starts away from home. Oakland is 8-1 OVER (+7.0 Units) on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. Saunders is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 5-0 in Braden's last 5 starts as a road underdog. The OVER is 4-1 in Saunders' last 5 home starts vs. Oakland and the OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in L.A. Take the OVER 8.5 runs here.
Info Plays
3* on San Francisco Giants -140
Reasons the Giants win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (HOUSTON) - below average NL hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), in May games. This is a 79-24 ML System hitting 76.7% over the last 5 seasons.
2.) We have two teams coming into this game with different attitudes. The Astros are in for a big letdown after their 3-game sweep of the Cardinals last series. Meanwhile, the Giants will be focused and determined in Game 1 of this series after getting swept in 3 games by the Padres. The Astros are 0-6 in Felipe Paulino's 6 starts this season and he won't be getting his first win of the year against the hungery Giants Friday. Dating back even further, the Astros are 2-14 in Paulino's last 16 starts as an underdog. Bet San Francisco at home.
Jim Feist
Phillies vs. Brewers
Play: Over 9
Milwaukee is an offensive park and two of the top three offensive teams in the NL meet here. 47-year old Jamie Moyer has allowed 7 homers, and so has Milwaukee lefty Randy Wolf. Wolf has a good ERA, but it's not indicative of how he's thrown. Wolf has allowed more hits than innings pitched and has allowed 18 walks in 43 innings, a poor ratio. He's walked 8 in his last two starts (11 innings), which includes an 8-0 loss at San Diego. Have to look for an offensive show in Milwaukee. Play the Phillies/Brewers Over the total.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Angels -117
Good price here with the Angels as a small home favorite over the A's. Dallas Braden comes into this contest fresh off a perfect game against the Tampa Bay Rays. It's only human nature for a pitcher coming off such a big feat to have a letdown in his next start. And if Braden's road outings this season are any indication, chances are he's going to struggle tonight. Braden is 1-1 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.700 WHIP through 2 road starts this season. He has allowed 9 earned runs in 10 innings on the road, and Braden has also yielded 9 earned runs in 11 innings in his last 2 starts against Los Angeles. Joe Saunders has experienced solid success vs. Oakland, going 9-4 with a 4.13 ERA lifetime against the A's.
This play falls under a system that is 31-11 (74%) since 1997. It tells us to bet against road teams (OAKLAND) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 1 or more HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL. Saunders has given up 7 home runs this season, but against this weak A's line-up I like his chances of keeping the ball in the park en route to an Angels' victory. Take Los Angeles.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh +1.87 over CHICAGO
The Pirates have dropped five straight and they’re not an easy team to pull the trigger on but the Cubbies might be a worse wager laying 2-1. The Cubbies are average or below average at everything and they’re also 4-6 against lefties. They’ll face one here in Brian Burres, another one of those guys that has suddenly found a little success after switching leagues. Burres pitched for the Orioles and had a very brief stint with the Jays before joining the Pirates. After facing the likes of Boston, the Yanks and Rays, facing teams like Houston, Cincinnati and these Cubs is a huge step down for Burres. He’s now thrown 13 scoreless innings in a row and suddenly his confidence has to be somewhat restored. He features four pitches (curve, slider, change and fastball) and uses them all. His command is an issue and he could potentially get rocked but at this price against this team he’s certainly worth a look. The Pirates are 6-4 against southpaws and they know Tom Gorzelanny as well as anyone. Prior to this season, Gorzelanny posted a 4.71 career ERA and while he has been pitching great, he simply does not win games because of a big lack of run support. Things could easily go his way this afternoon at Wrigley but how can you trust the Cubs as a 2-1 favorite, especially when Gorzelanny must be frustrated and thinks he has to be near perfect to get a win? Play: Pittsburgh +1.87 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +1.32 over SAN FRANCISCO
It’s truly amazing what a win or two can do for a team’s psyche and the Astros surely are feeling much better after sweeping the Cards in St. Louis and winning its fourth in a row. The Astros scored 19 runs in that three game set after scratching and clawing for anything for over a month. Felipe Paulino vs Todd Wellemeyer is a pitching mismatch and it’s not in the Giants favor. Wellemeyer might just be in the category of the three worst starting pitchers in the majors. He has a BPV of -31 (see under these write-ups for an explanation of BPV and PQS) and is constantly behind in the count and is seldom under 20 pitches an inning. He’s already walked 20 batters in 28 frames and has also surrendered five jacks. Now he has the added pressure of knowing his team is scuffing badly. The Giants were just swept by the Padres at SBC Park and scored four runs over that three-game set. San Fran batted a combined .183 in that series and has now lost five of six. Paulino is coming on strong over his last two starts with a BPV of 181 and an ERA of 3.46. He has a ton of upside and he also has terrific stuff. Paulino has 19 K’s over his last 13 innings and there is no denying that there is something special and deeply hidden about this guy. If he can solve LHB, look out, as Paulino is most definitely on the verge of something good. He’s 0-5 on the year, which is a crime in itself so hopefully he gets some justice here. Play: Houston +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland +1.16 over BALTIMORE
Justin Masterson is not nearly as bad as his 0-3 record and 5.23 ERA suggests. This guy has been very unfortunate indeed. A close look reveals that Masterson has been coming on recently. His combination of ground balls (55%) and strikeouts is very encouraging over his last two starts and that came against the Twins and Tigers. He’ll take a big step down in class when facing the Orioles and with a BPV of 115 he’s definitely on the verge of his first win of the year. The Indians are also playing a lot better with three wins in four games and even though they lost yesterday they still managed eight hits and three runs off Zach Greinke. Before yesterday they scored 19 runs in its previous three games. Jeremy Guthrie had a strong start to 2010, but has faltered lately with a 5.93 ERA over his last four starts. At Camden Yard, Guthrie is 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA and a BAA of .318. The O’s own the majors worst record and in no way can they be trusted laying juice. Of course the Tribe can win here. Play: Cleveland +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago –1½ +1.27 over KANSAS CITY
Mark Buehrle has quietly been one of the more reliable starters in the majors over the last several years and has somehow been pitching under the radar forever. His stock is low right now because of a 2-4 record and an ERA of 4.96 but he’s also faced Boston, the Yanks and the Rays in three of his last four starts. Five of his seven starts have come against MIN, NYY, TAM, TEX, and TOR, five of the six highest-scoring teams in the AL. Now he’ll face the Royals, a team that is 1-6 against southpaws and a team that he's 20-9 against in his career. The Royals have dropped seven of its last eight games and things don’t figure to turn around here. The South Side is a lot better than its 14-20 record suggests. They’ve had the toughest schedule in the majors thus far with series against the aforementioned five. Gil Meche is coming off a 128-pitch performance in Texas in which he issued seven walks. He just faced the White Sox 11 days ago and fired a PQS-1, with 5 ER over 5 IP. In three starts at Kaufman Stadium this year, Meche is 0-2 with an ERA of 11.24 and a BAA of .383. Overall, he’s walked 25 batters and struck out 17 and these White Sox hitters are among the most patient in the game. This one has blowout written all over it. Play: Chicago –1½ +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
James Patrick Sports
Mariners vs. Rays
One of Major League Baseball's biggest surprises has been Seattle's Doug Fister as opponents are hitting just (.205) against him. Tampa Bay has been on an extended road trip and we'll grab a great price with a "Hot Arm" on Seattle Mariners as Big Game James Patrick's Friday selection in Major League Baseball.
Scott Spreitzer
Mets at Marlins
Pick: Marlins
The Mets have been a tremendous "go-against" in tonight's situation. First of all, they have won just 16 of their last 54 road games, including a 1-8 mark the last nine times Oliver Perez has taken the road rubber. Perez has truly struggled in his last three outings, giving up 8 earned runs and 26 base runners, including 15 walks, in just 13 innings. That's a 5.54 ERA & 2.00 WHIP. In six overall starts this season, Perez has issued a whopping 25 free passes in just 30 innings of action, an average of 7.5 walks per 9 IP! The hefty WHIP plays right into Florida's wheelhouse. The Marlins are 5-0 in their last five against pitchers with a WHIP above 1.30. They're also 20-7 as a home fave of -1.50 or less and they're 14-4 the last 18 times at home with Sanchez on the bump. This one gets ugly early, as far as I'm concerned, and I'm laying the price with Florida.