Nelly
Minnesota / New York Under
While the Twins and Yankees have been among the higher scoring teams in the American League, both teams are winning without putting up huge offensive figures. New York averages 5.8 runs per game and Minnesota averages 5.0 runs per game but those averages are both skewed due to a handful of high scoring games at this point in the season. Both teams also have featured two of the best pitching staffs in the league so this series could be much lower scoring than some might expect. Both teams are allowing just 3.6 runs per game and the last time these teams met was a three-game New York sweep in the playoffs, where all three games played 'under'. New York has absolutely dominated this series in recent years including going 10-0 against Minnesota last season but there have been many low scoring games. A.J. Burnett and Francisco Liriano have been two of the most dominant pitchers in the AL so far this season and this is a much higher numbers than a match-up with those hurlers would normally project due to the offensive potential in the lineups.
Chuck O'Brien
St. Louis at CINCINNATI (+115)
That’s 17 of 23 free-play winners – and five in a row – after the Nationals bombed the Rockies as a big underdog last night. In fact, I’ve hit 10 of 11 baseball free plays in May! Friday’s complimentary selection also comes from National League action, and I’ll take the Reds as a home underdog against St. Louis.
Basically, I’m going to ride the hot team here. The Reds have won five in a row (all against division rivals), and they’re 12-4 in their last 16 games (5-2 at home). At the same time, St. Louis just got swept at home by the pathetic Astros, and the Redbirds are just 2-7 in their last nine games. With these teams going in opposite directions, Cincinnati has pulled within a half-game of St. Louis in the N.L. Central standings.
So why are the Cardinals favored on the road tonight? Because of rookie lefty Jaime Garcia, who has been nothing short of spectacular this season, giving up just seven runs (five earned) in 38 innings (1.18 ERA). However, despite Garcia’s brilliance, St. Louis has only managed to split his six starts, averaging just 3.5 runs per game in those contests. (Most recently, Garcia lost 2-0 at Pittsburgh on Saturday.)
Meanwhile, after a rocky start to the season, Cincinnati ace Aaron Harang has turned things around recently, going 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in his last three starts. Control has been the key to the resurgence for Harang, who has walked just two while striking out 21 in those three games (18 2/3 innings).
The Cardinals have lost five straight games against right-handed starters, while Cincinnati has won five straight against left-handed starters overall and 10 of 11 when facing southpaws at home. And over their past 10 games, the Reds are hitting a robust .322 against lefties. Given that fact, don’t be surprised if the Cardinals’ Garcia – who is not going to keep this up all season – comes back to earth with a shaky outing tonight.
4♦ CINCINNATI
Michael Cannon
Boston (-130) at DETROIT
Take the Red Sox for the road win over the Tigers.
Boston has been hitting better as a team and that should continue tonight against Detroit’s Max Scherzer.
Scherzer is 0-2 with a 14.54 ERA in his last three starts.
Boston will counter with Clay Buchholz, who is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA on the road this season. The right-hander has won his last six outings away from Fenway going back to August, posting a 1.91 ERA.
The Red Sox have won four in a row at Comerica Park overall.
Take Boston as they grab the road win.
3♦ BOSTON
Jeff Benton
Another ridiculously easy free-play winner Thursday as the Giants-Padres game (1-0 final) stayed way under the total, with San Diego's Mat Latos throwing a one-hitter. So I’m now on runs of 73-42-2 and 34-20 with plays that I’m giving away! For Friday, I’ll stay in the National League and back the Phillies on the road at Milwaukee.
First off, the Brewers’ offense is hurting in a big way with Ryan Braun sidelined with an elbow injury. Braun had just two at-bats in Milwaukee’s recent three-game series at Atlanta, and the Brewers lost all three games while scoring 2, 3 and 2 runs. (Of course, the pitching staff didn’t help matters any, as Milwaukee got outscored 28-7 by the light-hitting Braves.)
Braun is expected back tonight, but he’s not 100 percent (as it is anyway, he has just one home run in his last 17 games). Aside from Braun, the Milwaukee lineup is loaded with free-swingers – the exact kind of lineup a soft-tosser like Jamie Moyer dominates. The 47-year-old – that’s right; Moyer is 47! – is coming off an incredible complete-game 7-0 win over the Braves (he allowed just two hits and no walks).
Although he’s got a mediocre 4.38 ERA, Moyer’s been a workhorse, pitching at least six innings in all six of his starts (four of which Philadelphia has won). Also, since being traded to the Phillies in 2007, Moyer has faced the Brewers four times in the regular season and Philly won all four games comfortably (8-6, 3-1, 6-3 and 11-4).
As for Milwaukee starter Randy Wolf, his ERA (3.95) is solid but he’s been playing with fire most of the season, giving up 21 hits and 18 walks in 43 1/3 innings (or 1½ baserunners per inning). And in his last three starts, he’s allowed a total of 31 baserunners in 19 innings. Wolf, a former Phillie, hasn’t had much success against his former team, either, posting a 4.42 ERA in four starts, three of which Philadelphia has won.
Finally, while the Phillies have been better than average on the road this year (10-6), Milwaukee is just 4-11 on its home field this year, including a current five-game home losing streak. What’s more, Philadelphia is on runs of 6-2 overall, 4-0 after a loss (they suffered a walk-off 4-3 defeat at Colorado on Wednesday), 37-16 after a day off, 38-18 against the Central division and 7-3 with Moyer pitching on the road, while the Brewers have lost 12 of 17 after a day off, seven of eight as a home favorite and six of seven against N.L. East teams.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the NY Yankees over Minnesota. There's not a team in baseball they own more than the Twins. The Yanks have taken 16 of the last 20 meetings with Minnesota, including 10 straight in 2009. That's right... the Twins didn't beat the Yankees one time last year and AJ Burnett beat them three times on his own. The Twins, however, are off to their best start since the 2001 season when they began 29-12 and they currently share the exact same record as the Yankees. New York limps in having dropped three of four to the Tigers, including an ugly outing from CC Sabathia yesterday. The Twins are using this three-game series as a barometer for where the team stands through the first six weeks of this young season. The Twins haven't won in New York since July 4, 2007... a 6-2 win. Ouch. Burnett is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two home starts, and they'll need him to provide that type of pitching tonight against a Minny offense that is all-of-a-sudden starting to come on. I like the Yanks, behind a solid effort from Burnett, to win, 6-2.
2♦ NY YANKEES -1.5
VEGAS EXPERTS
Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have played just 12 of their 34 games this season at home. At home they are 8-4, on the road they are just 8-14. Luckily for them they are back at Turner Field to face a hapless Arizona team that has lost six straight games. In those six losses they were outscored 52-15. Atlanta is 3-0 when after playing seven or more consecutive road games. We say to take a look at Atlanta today as a small home favorite.
Play on: Atlanta Braves
Rocketman
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Chicago White Sox
Kansas City is 15-41 the past 3 years when playing on Friday. Kansas City is 2-9 this year after a win. Kansas City is 193-301 since 1997 at home when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Kansas City has lost 7 of their last 8 games overall. White Sox bullpen has a 3.29 ERA on the road this year. Kansas City is scoring only 3.7 runs per game at home this year. Kansas City bullpen has a 5.19 ERA overall this year and a 6.75 ERA at home this season. Gil Meche is 0-4 with an 8.24 ERA overall this year, 0-2 with an 11.37 ERA at home and 0-2 with a 6.16 ERA his last 3 starts. Buehrle is 20-9 with a 3.57 ERA overall vs Kansas City since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Chicago White Sox tonight!
MATT FARGO
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
We are definitely catching some value here on the Angels. With all due respect to Dallas Braden, we won’t see another performance tonight like we saw last Sunday when he tossed a perfect game Tampa Bay. That is what creates part of the value and keeps this line lower than it should be. Oakland comes in with two straight losses after its series loss in Texas to drop to 5-10 on the road this season. The Angels start meanwhile is one of the most disappointing in baseball as they are 16-21 on the year and also riding a two-game skid following a series loss against Tampa Bay. Joe Saunders gets the call for Los Angeles and he is part of the disappointing start. He is 1-5 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in seven starts but there is some light at the end of the tunnel. He is coming off as good start at Seattle last time out and he needs to build some momentum from that. His first start against Oakland this season was anything but spectacular but he is 9-4 in 15 career starts against the A’s and his ERA over the past seven outings is 3.58. Oakland was able to get to him in early April but as a team it is hitting only .221 against lefties including .209 on the road and .208 in its last 10 games. The A’s are 1-4 in their last five road games against a left-handed starter. As for Braden, he has been very solid all season and his last start could finally be a breakthrough but as mentioned, this is the spot to go against him coming off that perfect game. Los Angeles falls into a great contrarian situation as well. Play on home teams that are hitting .240 or worse over their last 15 games and starting a pitcher whose WHIP is 2.25 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 29-11 (72.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Los Angeles Angels
Tom Freese
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
Oakland starter Dallas Braden pitched perfect game in last start. We like him again tonight because he has allowed 3 or less runs in 6 of his 7 starts this year. The A's are 6-1 after scoring two runs or less in their last game and they are 13-5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their last game and they are 13-5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their last game. The A's are 6-2 in the last 8 starts made by Braden. Angels starter Joe Saunders has 13 walks and just 7 strikeouts in his last 3 starts. Los Angeles is 2-5 in 7 starts made by Saunders this year. Saunders is 0-4 home games and the Angels are 3-10 their last 13 games. PLAY ON OAKLAND
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on LA Angels -113
I know Saunders has struggled, but it's only a matter of time before he gets it going. He likely gets it going tonight against a team he has had a lot of success against. In fact, Saunders has a 9-4 career mark against the A's. Meanwhile, this spot has letdown written all over it for Braden, who is coming off a perfect game. In fact, Braden is carrying an 8.10 road ERA. The A's aren't a very good road team. They are just 2-9 in their last 11 road games and 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Angels are an incredible 27-10 in Saunders' last 37 starts with 5 days of rest. Look for a rested Saunders to pitch a gem tonight as the Halos come out on top.
EZWINNERS
San Diego Padres -145
The Dodgers starting pitcher Ramon Ortiz gets the spot start tonight against the Padres in what will be Ortiz first major-league start since 2007. Ortiz is one of the worst pitchers in major league baseball in my opinion. Ortiz pitched in Japan for the Orix Buffaloes last year, finishing 4-7 with a 5.82 ERA in 17 starts. He also went 1-2, with a 6.88 ERA in four outings for Licey in the Dominican Winter League this off-season. Ortiz made the Dodgers' Opening Day roster on a Minor League contract and has made 13 relief appearances this season where he has an ERA of 5.16. I don't expect him to make it past five innings against San Diego in this start. The Padres starting pitcher John Garland is off to a very strong start for San Diego. Garland is 4-2 this season with an ERA of 1.71 and in his last three starts Garland is 3-0 with an ERA of only 0.45! Garland has now won four straight starts and I like him to pick up the win here against the Dodgers as I expect the San Diego bats to do their part against Ramon Ortiz. The Padres have won four out of the last five meetings against the Dodgers and I expect that success to continue here. Play on San Diego.
Vernon Croy
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Boston Red Sox
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Red Sox have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight. The Red Sox are a perfect 6-0 in Buchholz's (3-3, 3.82) last 6 starts on the road and he has an ERA of just 1.91 over those 6 starts. Buchholz is 2-0 on the road this season with an ERA of just 2.08 and he should get plenty on run support tonight. Max Scherzer (1-3, 6.81 ERA) get's the start for the Tigers tonight and despite posting an ERA of just 2.63 over his first 4 outings he has struggled with an ERA of 14.54 over his last 3 starts. Take the Red Sox as my MLB Free Play for Friday night.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -1.5 -114
The Rockies have an excellent chance to bounce back tonight and beat the Nats by at least 2 runs when you consider that starter Ubaldo Jimenez is 6-1 with an ERA of just 0.93. Plus, right away you have to like the fact that Colorado is 40-11 as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 6.5 to 4.2 in these games. Hernandez is overachieving for the Nats early on, and I think he'll be hit with a harsh dose of reality tonight when you consider his struggles against the Rockies. Hernandez has dropped 5 straight on the money line to the Rockies with 4 of those 5 losses coming by 2 runs or more. Plus, what happened yesterday is certainly not the norm. The Nationals are just 9-24 in the last 33 meetings, including 4-11 in their last 15 meetings in Colorado. Take the Rockies on the run line.
Stan Lisowski
Oakland
The visitor is 15-5 in this series, and 5-1 in Braden’s last 6 starts against the Angels. Oakland is 5-2 in Braden starts this year overall, while LA is 2-5 in Saunders’ outings, while he has a 6.19 ERA in those games.
Stephen Nover
Arizona at ATLANTA (-120)
It's time for Atlanta's Kenshin Kawakami to get his first victory of the season.
The right-handed Kawakami can get strikeouts and the Diamondbacks are happy to oblige. They lead the National League in striking out by a huge margin with 312 whiffs. Arizona is 9-24 in its last 33 road games versus right-handed starters.
The Diamondbacks are a fade until they turn things around - which might not happen any time soon. The team is a train wreck right now coming off a six-game homestand where they lost all six games. Arizona hadn't lost that many games during a homestand of six of more games since 2004, the year they ended up losing 111 games.
Arizona has the second-worst record in the NL.
The Braves, in contrast to Arizona, are on a high having swept Milwaukee on the road. They outscored the Brewers, 28-7, while rapping out 35 hits in the three games.
I like Ian Kennedy, who is slated to start for Arizona. But the Diamondbacks have a terrible bullpen, low morale and are playing terrible. Kennedy has thrown at least 100 pitches during his past six starts. That high pitch count could catch up to him at some point.
3♦ BRAVES