Brett Atkins
I delivered you a free winner right here on Thursday as the Celtics wiped out the Cavaliers and won that series 4-2. Tonight, I'm switching over to the diamond for a comp winner on the Phillies as they visit Milwaukee to take on the Brewers.
Philadelphia comes into this one at Milwaukee tonight having beaten the Brewers 11 of the last 16 times they’ve met and on some very good streaks, including 7-3 when Jamie Moyer starts on the road, 26-9 when he pitches the first game of a series, 38-18 against N.L. Central teams and 37-16 after they get a day off.
The Phillies are 4-1 in Moyer’s five career starts against Milwaukee and in Wisconsin he’s allowed three runs in 10 innings of two career outings.
Randy Wolf goes for the Brewers and he’s just 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA in his last three and as a Dodgers’ starter last year, he got beat in two of three starts against the Phillies.
The Brewers have lost five straight at home and seem to struggle at Miller Park. Play Moyer and the Phillies to get this one tonight.
3♦ PHILADELPHIA
Joel Tyson
For Friday night, I will take the Texas Rangers to continue their hot play north of the border.
The Rangers come to Toronto having won 2 in a row, and 6 of their last 7 overall. Pitcher Rich Harden has been consistent enough to keep his team in the game until the later innings, and that will be just long enough for the Texas bats to get to Toronto starter Brett Cecil.
Cecil did record a win against Texas in his lone start against them last season, but he also allowed 7 runs to score in his 5 innings of work.
Toronto is just 7-10 at home this year, and Texas has won 3 of the last 5 played at the Rogers Centre.
Texas to open the weekend with another win.
2♦ TEXAS
Matt Rivers
Take the White Sox for the road win over the Royals.
Normally I would back a team like Kansas City immediately after it fired its manager, but there are too many negatives for me to do that tonight.
First off, Kansas City starter Gil Meche is 0-4 on the year with an 8.24 ERA. The right-hander hasn’t been able to find the strike zone and it’s killing him. Meche has issued 25 walks in just 31 2-3 innings.
The second reason is Chicago’s Mark Buehrle and his extended dominance over the Royals. The left-hander is 20-9 in his career with a 3.55 ERA against Kansas City.
Take the White Sox for the road win.
3♦ CHICAGO WHITE SOX
O.C. Dooley
Brewers -115
It is interesting that Milwaukee would be cast as a favorite tonight considering that they just got swept in a home series where the offense in three games put only 7 runs on the scoreboard. One of the reasons for that offensive outage had to do with the elbow injury to slugger Ryan Braun who RETURNS to the starting lineup tonight. On paper the defending National League champions look like the play considering that ageless Jamie Moyer is coming off a TWO HIT shutout gem. On the other hand Milwaukee so far this season (4-11) has NOT had a home field advantage. But the Brewers actually have the edge in the bullpen right now as regular Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge is dealing with continued elbow issues while his backup Ryan Madson just underwent toe surgery and is on the shelf for a couple of months. Certainly Milwaukee’s closer Trevor Hoffman is “fresh” as he has made only 2 appearances so far in the month of May. For those who may not remember tonight’s Milwaukee starter Randy Wolfe actually started his major league career in Philadelphia and he is in “double revenge” tonight against that former organization. The Phillies certainly have a potent offense but one of their hotter sticks (catcher Carlos Ruiz) suffered a knee INJURY last time out and is questionable. Here is a 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (29-13 past five years in the National League) which plays ON offensive oriented teams like Milwaukee who average at least 4.8 runs per game, when off 3 consecutive contests where the pitchers allowed 8+ runs each time. That system supports Milwaukee and their pitcher Randy Wolf who in front of the HOME fans is on an incredible “19-4” roll in the month of MAY
John Ryan
St Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
3* graded play on the Reds as they take on the Cardinals set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Reds will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 45-19 making 27.7 units since 2004. Play on NL home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher with good control allowing less than 1.75 BB's/start facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season. Harang has done well when facing the Cardinals in their respective careers. Of course Pujols, who hits everyone, is batting 300, but aside form that Harang has been mostly dominating. Reds are 10-3 (+7.8 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. Reds are 43-22 (+30.3 Units) against the money line after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival over the last 2 seasons. Cards starter Garcia has an excellent curve ball, but a horrid change up. The change is what we feel the Reds hitters will sit on and hit hard. Garcia throws this pitch in predictable counts and rarely gets this pitch down in the zone where it is effective. Take the Reds.
Hollywood Sports
Twins at Yankees
Prediction: Under
Francisco Liriano now takes the hill for the Twins (instead of Scott Baker) -- and Liriano has enjoyed an outstanding season with his 4-1 record that accompanies his 2.36 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Liriano has had success against the Yankees throughout his career as he sports a 2.77 ERA while holding the Pinstripe hitters to just a .234 batting average. He faces A.J. Burnett who is 4-1 with a 3.40 ERA this season. Burnett is coming off a rough outing where he allowed 9 runs (8 earned) in just 4 1/3 innings in Fenway Park against the Red Sox. We look for Burnett to bounce-back with a strong outing as pitchers frequently do after not completing 5 innings of work. Burnett does well in the new Yankee Stadium. Last year, he produced a 3.51 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and opponent's batting average of just .229 at home which compares favorably to his 4.59 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and opponent's batting average of .264 when on the road. And Burnett had a 2.77 ERA against the Twins last season. Both of these clubs have strong 22-12 records -- and the Under is 8-2 in the Twins last 10 games against a team with a winning record while the Under is also 6-1 in the Yanks' last 7 home games with Burnett on the mound against a winning team.
Teddy Covers
White Sox @ Royals
PICK: Over 9
Gil Meche threw 128 pitches in a complete game loss at Texas in his last start. Last year, Meche threw a complete game shutout, needing 132 pitches to complete the task. From that point on, his season was a disaster, with only one quality start in his final nine trips to the hill. He allowed 43 earned runs in 44.2 innings of work in those final nine starts of ’09, including an ugly 3.1 inning, nine earned runs allowed outing in his first appearance following the 132 pitch start. Meche is not a pitcher to trust coming off a 128 pitch outing, plain and simple.
Meche has struggled repeatedly in 2010, entering tonight’s game with an 8.24 ERA and a 17-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The White Sox hit him hard just eleven days ago: 12 baserunners and five earned runs in just five innings of work. Look for Chicago to have continued success tonight against Meche and the mediocre Royals bullpen behind him.
We cashed an Over ticket on the Royals yesterday, as they pounded out six runs against Indians lefty David Huff. KC has been hitting lefties, going Over the total against Matt Harrison, Dontrelle Willis and Ryan Rowland-Smith in recent games. White Sox southpaw Mark Buehrle has been struggling of late. Chicago has lost each of his last five starts, allowing 39 runs in those five ballgames. Buehrle was hit hard in both of his final two starts against the Royals last year – KC scored 18 runs in those ballgames, each contest flying Over the total. Expect more of the same tonight. 2* Take the Over.
Larry Ness
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers
Jamie Moyer (4-2, 4.38 ERA) was scheduled to start the nightcap of a doubleheader at Colorado on Wednesday but it was postponed due to rain and snow (what happened to all that good weather MLB experienced in April?). It's interesting how quickly things change, as the Phillies decided to keep their rotation intact, giving Moyer his first start in a week in the opener this weekend's series at Milwaukee. Just last year, Moyer was dropped from the staring rotation. However, the 47-year-old became the oldest player in major league history to throw a shutout his last time out, pitching a two-hitter in a 7-0 win over Atlanta last Friday. It marked his 262 career win. Moyer is 9-5 with a 3.81 ERA in 18 career starts vs Milwaukee and more importantly, his teams have gone 9-1 in his last 10 starts vs the Brewers. However, Milwaukee's Randy Wolf hasn't allowed more than four earned runs in any of his seven outings in 2010 and takes a 3-2 record with a 3.95 ERA into this game. Wolf's 11th year was a charm in 2009 (second stint with LAD), as he went 11-7, 3.23 with LA going 22-12 (plus-$770) in his 34 starts (11th-best vs ML among all starters). I like the way he's pitched this year and I just believe Moyer will have a tough time matching his last outing (especially seven days between starts) vs a team which bats .272 (5th-best in MLB) and averages 5.47 RPG. I'm taking the home team.
Bryan Leonard
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
The Dodgers are sending Ramon Ortiz to the mound for his first start since 2007. Ortiz wasn't expected to make the team out of Spring Training but because of the pitching shortage in LA he made the roster. The veteran has not been overly impressive with a 5.16 ERA pitching out of the bullpen. Los Angeles are just 7-11 on the road but enter here after a three game sweep at Arizona.
San Diego counters with a rejuvenated Jon Garland. He owns a sparkling 1.71 ERA on the season but has been even better as of late. In his last five starts he's allowed just two earned runs. That's 32 innings of work and just two earned runs scored against him. San Diego is 15-11 on the season vs righties and a sparkling 11-5 at Petco Park. They are coming off a road trip in which they won 5 of 6 in Houston and San Francisco.
This is a cheap number with a pitcher staying well under the national radar.
PLAY SAN DIEGO
Dave Price
1 Unit on Rangers/Blue Jays UNDER 8.5
The Rangers can't lefty starters (.239 average) and they can't hit on the road (.232 average). Plus, both Harden (2.50 ERA L3 starts) and Cecil (2.33 ERA L3 starts) have been dealing. This sets up a solid Unders situation, especially when you consider that the Under is 38-15-1 in the Rangers' last 54 games vs. a left-handed starter and 12-3-1 in their last 16 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings and 17-7 in the last 24 meetings in Toronto between these two teams. Take the Under.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on LA Angels -113
I know Saunders has struggled, but it's only a matter of time before he gets it going. He likely gets it going tonight against a team he has had a lot of success against. In fact, Saunders has a 9-4 career mark against the A's. Meanwhile, this spot has letdown written all over it for Braden, who is coming off a perfect game. In fact, Braden is carrying an 8.10 road ERA. The A's aren't a very good road team. They are just 2-9 in their last 11 road games and 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Angels are an incredible 27-10 in Saunders' last 37 starts with 5 days of rest. Look for a rested Saunders to pitch a gem tonight as the Halos come out on top.
Nelly
Cleveland + over Baltimore
Mitch Talbot has pitched effectively for the Indians this season while Cleveland is a losing team overall, the Indians are 4-2 when Talbot starts. He has also pitched far better on the road with a 2.60 ERA and he will face an Orioles team with the worst record in baseball. Baltimore is a losing team at home, hitting just .251 at Camden Yards and in the last ten games the Orioles are batting just .209 against right-handed pitching. Cleveland has had the superior bullpen in this match-up and while Brian Matusz is a more acclaimed young pitcher, he has not been better this season. Baltimore is 0-4 in his last four outings and he has allowed at least three runs in every start since his 2010 debut. Matusz can compile strikeouts but he allows a lot of hits and Baltimore is yet to win behind him at home. Cleveland won five of seven in this series last season and after a rough home stand the Indians played well to win a series in Kansas City. While the Indians have not won a lot of games recently they have been scoring runs, scoring at least four runs in each of the last seven games heading into this series. Baltimore has stolen a few recent wins but the team has failed to top two runs in six of the last ten games. Both teams have been out-scored on the year but the margin is much wider for the Orioles as the Indians are likely to be the more competitive team this season and in this series.
Dan Bebe
CIN (+113) vs STL
This game really falls into that "when the top criteria in finding value all point the same way" bucket, so to miss out on the Reds today is denying our most base handicapping tools.
First, the pitchers. Cincinnati's Aaron Harang has been MUCH better over his last 3 starts. His season numbers still look brutal, which creates value on the Reds, but Harang has given his team 3 straight quality starts, allowing a total of 7 runs over almost 19 innings of work, which translates to an ERA of just a shade over 3, significantly lower than his season mark of 6.02. Opposite Harang is Jaime Garcia, whose 1.18 season ERA is not only unsustainable, but also, again, creates value on the Reds. His incredible work thus far this year is driving up the price to back Garcia, even though a regression is coming, sooner than later.
Next, the momentum. The Cardinals are slumping, big time. They got waxed at home by the Astros during the week, and now head on the road to play a Cincinnati team that has quietly won 5 games in a row, and are on the cusp of grabbing the Central Division lead from these very Cardinals. They've been winning with a solid, if unspectacular offense, and very good starting pitching (of late). The pen has also been probably a little better than people expected after getting off to a rocky start.
Finally, the line. Despite the public's continued love for any team with Pujols in the lineup, this line has steadily worked its way down, and then, as of this morning, held pretty steady. Even if this doesn't tell us precisely the side getting the sharp money, it's pretty clear that the Cardinals AREN'T getting the big dollars yet, and I don't expect that to change in the afternoon, even as the public money moves this line back a few cents.
So, I fully expect the price to actually get a tiny bit better for us Reds backers. But, I want to make sure you guys know where I stand on this one. If you have time, feel free to try to wait out a few more pennies, since every little bit counts, but if not, I definitely like this play.
Expect another 6 strong innings from Harang, another decent start from Garcia, but with the game hovering close going into the late innings, you have to love your chances with the underdog playing the better baseball and trying to nab first place!