Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, May 17

Marc Lawrence

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees

The Yankees host the Blue Jays in the opener of this three-game series in the Bronx Friday night where Hideki Kuroda matches serves with Mark Buehrle. Kuroda takes the mound in solid current form sporting a 4-1 career team start mark in this series, including 2-0 at home. On the flip side Buehrle is an atrocious 1-13 in his fourteen career team starts against the Pinstripes. With the Blue Jays a rancid 2-16 their last eighteen games as a visitor in this series, look for more of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Yankees.

Dave Price

Colorado Rockies +110

Madison Bumgarner has pitched well this season and has a good track record versus Colorado, but I can't pass up Jorge De La Rosa at home at an underdog price. The Rockies are a ridiculous 26-4 in De La Rosa's last 30 home starts. He is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 2 home starts this season, giving up a total of just 5 hits in those games versus the Diamondbacks and Yankees. The Rockies are also 5-1 in De La Rosa's last 6 home starts versus the Giants. Take Colorado.

Rob Vinciletti

Washington vs. San Diego
Play: Under 7

This game fits a nice totals System that has won 9 of 10 time since 2004 and plays to the under for road favorites of -140 or higher with a total of 8 or less that are off a road favored win by 2 or more runs, while scoring 5 or more runs and are taking on a team off a home dog loss that scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits. We can look for another low scoring game here as Washington is averaging just 3.3 runs per game on .225 hitting on the road . In the series 5 of the last 7 here have gone under. Washington has Gio Gonzalez going and he was stellar in his lone start in this park going 6 strong innings without allowing a run. He will take on B. Smith who will look to improve off his first start where he allowed 6 runs in 1 inning. San Diego follows him up with a Solid 2.14 home bullpen era. Look for this game to go under the total.

Art Aronson

Seattle vs. Cleveland
Play: Under 8½

Brandon Maurer (2-5, 5.97 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Maurer gave up three runs off six hits over five frames in his teams eventual 4-3 loss to the A's on Saturday. Two of his three runs given up would come off solo home runs; he'd finish with four K's and two walks. For the most part the rookie has been as solid as you could possibly expect though and he'll have to be razor focused today vs. this dangerous Indians lineup. Maurer will be opposed by veteran Ubaldo Jimenez (3-2, 5.55 ERA) who started the year in a major slump, but has since looked better, giving up just three earned runs over his last three starts. Are you convinced that Jimenez has made a full turn-around after last season's debacle and the slow start to 2013? It would definitely appear so. Despite going 9-17 with a 5.40 ERA last year, Jimenez would finish with a respectable 3.70 ERA in front of the home town crowd. I expect these starters to battle into the latter frames and for this total to ultimately sneak below the posted number.

Jim Feist

Blue Jays at Yankees
Pick: Over

NY is a great offensive park and the over is 6-2 in the Blue Jays last 8 games as an underdog and the over is 8-3-1 in the Blue Jays last 12 road games. Toronto goes with Mark Buehrle, who may know how to pitch but his aging arm is failing him with a 6.19 ERA. Coming to the AL East from the NL was a bad move and he has a 5.95 ERA his last three starts. Even in his better years he struggled badly against the Bronx Bombers with a 1-9 record and a 6.19 ERA against them. Hiroki Kuroda goes for New York and has an ERA close to 4 against Toronto. The over is 6-2-2 in the Yankees last 10 games as a home favorite. Play the Blue Jays/NY Yankees over the total.

Dave Cokin

Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays let one get away on Thursday night as closer Fernando Rodney fell apart against the Red Sox. Tampa Bay will try and regroup tonight as they open an important divisional series with the Orioles in Baltimore.

I'm expecting the Orioles to garner the majority of the betting action tonight. Players have a tendency to put too much weight on the last thing they saw, which in this case is the Rays getting blown out on Wednesday and blowing a ninth-inning lead on Thursday. The fact the Birds enjoyed a needed day off will also be factored in by lots of wagerers.

But it's not like the Orioles are on fire right now, either. They were just swept by the Padres and the normally solid bullpen was anything but lights out in that series. I don't think there's any real cause for alarm for O's fans in that area, however.

The starting pitching is close to a wash. Jeremy Hellickson has slightly better metrics than Jason Hammel, but neither righty is doing especially well. Hammel has better pitcher vs. hitter stats against this opponent than does Hellickson. I give Baltimore the bullpen edge, and the O's late inning guys are definitely a little fresher than their Rays counterparts.

If it sounds like I'm making a less than compelling argument for the road team here, well yeah, I am. This is not one of the great stat plays of all time. More than anything, it's taking what I feel will be an anti-public stance. That normally means little to me in baseball. But in this case, it's looking to me like a substantial majority will land on the Orioles side in a game priced not far from pick 'em. Those are the types of spots where I prefer to line up with the side the house needs, and in this case that will likely be the Tampa Bay Rays.

Bruce Marshall

Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians
Pick: Cleveland Indians -1.5

We haven't seen this sort of form from Indians starter Ubaldo Jimenez since his days in Colorado; over his last three starts, Jimenez has been airtight, with 20 Ks and only three runs allowed in his last 18 2/3 IP (0.96 ERA), and Cleveland has won Ubaldo's last four starts. Moreover, the Indians are scoring plenty of runs and have been the AL's hottest team the past few weeks, winning 14 of their last 18. Seattle's form remains inconsistent, which has been especially true of Friday starter Brandon Maurer (5.97 ERA). Play Indians on Run Line

BRAD WILTON

Your Friday comp play is a Run Line release on the Yankees over the Blue Jays.

Love the value we are getting here with Hiroki Kuroda, as Kuroda has been rock-solid for Joe Girardi this spring, going 5-2 with a 2.31 ERA thus far. His ERA over his last 3 starts is an even better 1.66, and he has allowed just 3 runs in his last 22 frames of work at the big ballpark in the Bronx, while going 3-0.

The Jays do sport a 4 game winning streak heading into this weekend set, but they have lost 16 of the last 18 series meetings at New York, and they have lost 6 of the 7 series meetings already this year versus the Yanks.

Mark Buehrle has not delivered for his new team, as the lefty is just 1-2 for the season with an ERA over 6. He is also just 1-9 for his career against New York, and sports an ERA over 6 in his 14 starts versus the Yankees. The only win comes back in 2004!

With Kuroda among the league-leaders in ERA, and Buehrle struggling both on the year and for his career against the Yankees, I think a Run Line release on the Yankees is in order this Friday night.

2* N.Y. YANKEES -1.5

BRETT ATKINS

Alright, so the Cardinals catch the Brewers on a three-game losing streak, and coming to St. Louis doesn't do the Brew Crew any favors this weekend, as the Redbirds are sure to put it on em.

The Cardinals are going to be pissed off, undoubtedly, after they dropped a matinee contest here at Busch, to the New York Mets yesterday, which ended St. Louis' three-game win streak. Now the Cardinals get a shot at a Brewers team they've dominated.

St. Louis has won six of seven meetings this season, including a four-game sweep in Milwaukee earlier this month.

St. Louis has won 12 of 15 and have opened a 1-1/2-game lead over the Reds in the division, and has the potential to cushion its lead against a Milwaukee team that is 1-6 on its current road trip and is 6-12 on the highway in 2013.

Take St. Louis on the run line.

1* ST. LOUIS -1.5

SCOTT DELANEY

My free pick is on the Texas Rangers in Game 2 of their four-game weekend set against the Detroit Tigers. There really was nothing better than seeing the Rangers take it to the Tigers and Justin Verlander in the series opener, as it proved Verlander can be battered by a decent lineup.

I could be wrong, but I think the Tigers did themselves in by looking ahead to this series, when they lost to the Houston Astros and failed to sweep the Astros in Motown.

While Texas swept the Astros in Houston over the weekend, the Tigers couldn't finish their series off against baseball's worst team Wednesday, losing a 7-5 matinee contest with usually reliable Max Scherzer on the hill.

The Tigers are 10-7 against the American League West this season, but haven't played a full series against the Rangers yet. And, keep in mind that record includes a 6-1 mark against the Astros. That leaves a 4-6 mark against the rest.

Take the Rangers tonight as they continue to roll.

2* RANGERS

CHRIS JORDAN

My free play tonight is on the Toronto Blue Jays plus money against the New York Yankees, and I want you listing both Mark Buehrle and Hiroki Kuroda. These two just met not too long ago, and I expect a bit of revenge in this game, as I think Buehrle - who took the loss last month - will get the best of Kuroda and the Yankees this time around.

It took some time, but Buehrle finally produced his best start of the season - one to brag about - as he allowed just one run and scattered five hits over seven-plus against the Boston Red Sox.

And even though Kuroda has logged six straight quality starts for the Yankees, I'm not so sure I saw him at his best his last time out. Now he takes on a Blue Jays team that has won four straight and is hungry to get out of the cellar of the American League East, a division they were supposed to win this year.

Instead, we've seen the Red Sox and Yankees lead the charge over the first month and a half. The Yankees are currently the division leaders.

But suddenly, the offense has come around for the Jays, as they've seen the top of their order - Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion - combine to go 21-for-46 (.457) during the winning streak.

I'm going to take the Blue Jays here and will list both.

5* TORONTO

Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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White Sox vs. AngelsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: White SoxFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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My clients and I have cashed in with the White Sox in each of the last two days, and there's no reason to jump ship on Friday, as the oddsmakers have once again missed the mark setting them as an underdog with their ace, Chris Sale taking the hill.
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The betting marketplace is still having an awfully tough time adjusting to the fact that the Angels are not a good baseball team.
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At 15-26 on the season, things obviously haven't gone the 'Halos way. While they have too much talent on board not to turn it around at some point, for now they remain an excellent 'play against' team, especially in the 'favorite' role.
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I've been high on the White Sox from day one this season, and even after a slow start, still believe they have plenty of upside. We've certainly seen signs of life from them lately, as they've notched four wins in their last five games, all starting with last Sunday's masterpiece from Sale against these same Angels.
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The towering left-hander has been simply dominant this season, posting a 2.88 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in eight starts, spanning 56 1/3 innings of work. He's given up only 41 hits while posting a stellar 49:12 stirkeout-to-walk ratio. Home runs have been a bit of an issue as he's been tagged for six, but only two of those have come over his last five starts. Of course, Sale held the Angels to only one hit in a shutout victory last Sunday night in Chicago, and he also defeated them here in Anaheim last year, allowing only one earned run over 5 1/3 innings pitched.
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C.J. Wilson will counter for Los Angeles. He's been pitching well, essentially since the start of the season, but unlike Sale, he hasn't been working deep into ball games and that could cost the Angels again tonight. Note that working behind Wilson is an awful bullpen that has posted a collective 5.02 ERA here at home this season, and coughed up another possible victory last night. Since joining the Angels, Wilson is winless in two starts against the White Sox, both times matching up against Sale.
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The Chicago offense has finally come to life, with Alex Rios leading the charge. Even Adam Dunn has come around over the last couple of days, while it's only a matter of time before Paul Konerko shakes out of his slump (he's collected a hit in back-to-back games and has looked more comfortable at the plate after a couple of days off). The Angels can score, but they've had a miserable time keeping the opposition in check, a big reason why they find themselves in third place in the AL West.

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Seattle vs. ClevelandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ClevelandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Seattle Mariners are in Cleveland on Friday, coming off a three game series in New York that saw them take two of three from the Yankees. They might be in for a rough ride in Game 1 versus the Indians though, with 22 year old rookie Brandon Maurer on the mound. The M's offense will have to contend with a red hot Cleveland hurler in Ubaldo Jimenez.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1: Pitching: Jimenez has been fantastic in three straight starts, only allowing three runs, and winning all three games. It might be worth noting that he was roughed up only twice this year, and both of those starts were in afternoon games. He might not be fooling hitters in the light of day, but he's doing just fine under the lights.
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Maurer (2-5, 5.97 ERA) is coming off consecutive losses. He allowed three runs on six hits over just five innings in his last start, losing 4-3 to Oakland. He allowed a pair of home runs in that game, and it was the third time this season he's given up multiple home runs. That's a recipe for disaster against a Cleveland team that ranks first in the majors in slugging percentage, and fifth in runs scored.
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2: Hitting - Not only do the Indians have a favorable matchup on the mound, but this game features one of baseball's best offensive teams versus one of the worst. The Mariners rank near the bottom of the AL in batting average.
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3: X-Factor - Jason Kipnis was 3-for-4 yesterday, and all three of those hits were for extra bases.

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Arizona vs. MiamiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ArizonaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Trips to South Beach have become even more enjoyable than usual for MLB clubs in 2013 as the Marlins are absolutely horrible, which was honestly to be expected. No one is coming to games and why should they considering the team has lost five in a row and eight of nine? Overall, they are 11-30 on the year, the worst record in Major League Baseball. This should be a big series for Arizona...
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Starting for the D'backs will be Trevor Cahill, who carries a 1.80 ERA in his last three starts. Despite this, his team has lost twice. Look for a different result here. Miami averages just 2.5 runs per game at home where they have a 5-14 WL record. They are 30th (out of 30 teams!) in runs scored, team batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage. So, in other words, they absolutely stink.
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All Cahill will need here are a few runs to work with. The D'backs are 6-2 their last eight games here in Miami. Marlins starter Kevin Slowey allowed five runs and 11 hits his last start. Cahill will get the run production he needs and Arizona should roll to their third straight victory.