Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Braves -133FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dodgers have been a pretty big flop to start the season which is surprising when you look at the size of their payroll. They are averaging just 3 runs per game against left handed starters and they have a 6-9 road record combined to a 9-5 home record for Atlanta. The Braves will also face a lefty today and they are averaging 4.6 runs per game with a .337 on base percentage in the 14 games they have went against left handed starters this season.
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Atlanta will have Paul Maholm on the mound today. Maholm has a 3.94 ERA with a 1.208 WHIP in his 8 starts but his numbers are significantly better when playing at home. In his home starts his ERA drops to 1.32 and he has a 0.878 WHIP. For the Dodgers Hyun-Jin Ryu will get the start. He is a big of an unknown as he does not have a single game in his career where he has went up against Atlanta.
MLB Predictions
Kansas City Royals -108
The Kansas City Royals took 2 of 3 vs Los Angeles this week to move to 20-17 on the year and 10-9 on the road. The Oakland Athletics dropped 2 of 3 making them just 2-8 over their last 10 games and they now sit 20-22 on the year and 10-10 at home. The Royals will send James Shield to the mound who is 2-3 on the season with a 2.48 ERA, .205 OBA and 0.97 WHIP. He has been consistently good allowing 3 earned runs against or fewer in 7 of 8 starts (with the other start being 4 ER). Over his last 5 starts he has allowed just 8 earned runs against getting through 6 or more innings in each. A's Jarrod Parker on the other hand is 2-5 with a 6.68 ERA, .321 OBA and 1.84 WHIP. Over his last 4 starts he has allowed 16 earned runs against. Pitching at home hasn't helped him at all as he is 1-3 with a 9.61 ERA at home this year and a WHIP just under 2 at 1.98. The Royals are coming off a series where they managed to score 22 runs in 3 games, while the A's have scored 22 runs in their last 7 games and have only scored more than 3 runs 3 times over their last 10 games. The A's are 1-5 in Parker's last 6 starts as an underdog and 1-4 in his last 5 home starts. I'm hoping on Kansas City to beat a struggling A's team behind Shields.
Rays / Orioles Over 8.5
The Tampa Bay Rays have lost two straight after giving up 3 runs in the 9th last night vs Boston. Before that they had won 6 straight games scoring 38 runs over those 6 games (6.33 runs per game). The Orioles have lost 4 of their last 6 games and they've given up 6+ runs against in 4 of those 6 games. Over their last 10 games they've scored 50 runs (5 per game). Tonight Tampa Bay will send Jeremy Hellickson to the mound who has had his struggles this year. He is 1-2 with a 5.25 ERA, .251 OBA and 1.27 WHIP. Over this last 4 starts he has allowed 18 earned runs against, and his ERA over his past 3 starts is sitting at 7.02. Jason Hammel will take the mound for Baltimore and he is also struggling although he has a 5-1 record. His ERA is sitting at 4.93 with a .278 OBA and 1.47 WHIP. At home his ERA is 5.68 although he has just two home starts this year, and his ERA for his past three starts is 7.20. The team is 7-1 in games he has started, which just shows you how much run support the Orioles are giving him. Take note that these two teams have met 6 times already this year with totals of 16, 8, 9 in Baltimore and 9, 15, and 11 in Tampa Bay. Hellickson gave up 5 earned runs in 6.1 innings pitched vs Baltimore at the start of the season, and Hammels gave up 3 earned runs in 6 innings pitched in Tampa Bay early this year. Also note that the OVER is 9-0-3 in the Rays last 12 road games, 19-5-4 in their last 28 overall, and 9-2-1 in their last 12 games vs a starter with a WHIP over 1.30. The OVER is 5-0 in Hammels last 5 starts overall and 5-1-1 in his last 7 home starts dating back to last season. This season the OVER is 4-0-2 between these two teams, and I'm surprised to see a total at 8.5 for tonight's game. I'm on the OVER.
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Ottawa Senators vs.Pittsburgh PenguinsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Take: Pittsburgh Penguins -1½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pittsburgh Penguins will look to take a commanding 2-0 lead in their Eastern Conference Semi-Final series with the Senators when the two teams meet tonight at the Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh. The Penguins easily won Game 1 by the score of 4-1 due in large part to the success of their special teams as they were 2-3 on the power play to go along with a short-handed tally. Tomas Vokoun was excellent once again for Pittsburgh and he will once again be between the pipes for the Penguins. He replaced a shaky Marc-Andre Fleury during the team’s first round series with the Islanders and the team hasn’t looked back since. Vokoun is 3-0 with a 1.28 GAA, .962 save % and a one shut-out in his three starts since replacing Fleury. He will be opposed by Craig Anderson, who will get the start in goal for the Senators. Anderson was good in the first round win over the Canadians but struggled in Game 1 against Pittsburgh, allowing 4 goals on just 30 shots against. The Penguins, who were the best team in the Eastern Conference from the start of the season, have had a ton of success in the spot they are in here tonight. They have been nearly unbeatable at home, winning 40 of their last 52 game at Consol and have been nearly as dominant following a win, posting a 45-15 record in their last 60 games in that situation. The Senators, who clinched their spot in the playoffs on the second to last day of the season have struggled a bit in the situation they find themselves in tonight against the Penguins. They were just 10-11-3 on the road this season and have not been good in Friday games for whatever reason over the past few years, winning just 17 of their last 52 games. They have also had trouble with the Penguins on the road, losing 5 of their last 6 games in Pittsburgh. Pair those numbers with the fact that the Penguins are finally healthy, and that their power play is connecting at a 38% rate in the playoffs and we’ll lay the 1½ goals tonight to get the nice plus price as we see Game 2 of this series being a carbon copy of what happened in Game 1.
Wunderdog
New York Mets at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago Cubs +120
Not too much has gone right for the Mets this season, and despite the win yesterday, the Cubs have a better record. The Mets' offense has been brutal for quite some time, as they have produced 4 runs or less in 16 of their last 19 games, including 9 of their last 10. The Cubs' offense has been the most productive over their last five games where they have averaged 5.8 runs per contest. Harvey has come up aces for the Mets, but despite the fact that he has allowed 2 or fewer runs in seven of eight starts, the pen, and lack of offense has kept him out of the win column in each of his last four starts. The Mets are just 1-9 in their last 10 vs. a right-handed starter doesn't bode well for them here. Take the Cubs.
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Ottawa Senators +180FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Game 1 saw the Senators outshoot Pittsburgh 36-30, but the Penguins won 4-1. The score isn't much of an indication of how close this series should end up being in my opinion. If you can remember in the first series the Penguins won the first game 5-0 but sat back ant dropped the second 4-3 to the Islanders at home. Ottawa was 2-1 on the road in Round 1 and I wouldn't be surprised to see another win here. Craig Anderson has been great for the most part of this year and these playoffs, but had an off game in Game 1 letting in 4 goals (although they weren't bad goals). He has the ability to steal a game, and tonight could be the night for that. I wanted to watch the first game of the series before pulling the trigger on Ottawa, and I think now is the time given the big +180 price tag. Take the Senators as big underdogs to win outright.
Joe Gavazzi
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
In this game, we feature a Toronto Blue Jay offense that is at long last producing at their potential. That offense has led them to a season best 4-0 winning streak in which they have outscored the opposition, 36-15. Meanwhile after going 24-10, the Yankees have lost consecutive games. But before you believe that momentum will continue, consider that Toronto is 5-11/win while NY is 9-5/loss. All other factors point to a NY victory as well. Against the Blue Jays, the Yankees stand 16-2 and 7-0 at this site. Tonight’s NYY sends their most consistent hurler to the mound in Kuroda. For the season, Kuroda is 5-2 what 2.31 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Kuroda has won his last 3 starts from this mound in which he has allowed only 3 runs in 23 IP. In addition in his most recent 4 starts against Toronto, Kuroda is 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA. These numbers are in stark contrast to the work of Buehrle who has a 6.19 ERA for the season. Likewise, he has a 6.19 ERA in 14 starts against the Yankees over which time he has gone 1-9. That includes 0-7 in his last 10 starts against NYY over which time he has an 8.06 ERA. In a pair of starts vs. the Yankees this season, Buehrle has allowed 8 runs in 12 1/3 IP.
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LA Dodgers vs. AtlantaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: LA DodgersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Atlanta Braves opened the 2013 season at 12-1 but have hit just .234 during the team’s current 10-17 stretch. Atlanta concluded a 4-6 road trip with Wednesday's 5-3 defeat to Arizona, its fifth loss in six games. The 22-18 Braves still sit atop the NL East but haven't looked much like a first-place team lately. Meanwhile, the disappointing Dodgers are starting to pick up the pace. The Dodgers, just 17-22 and still in last-place in the NL West, have hit .303 as a team while winning FOUR of their last five, following an eight-game losing streak. Zack Greinke (5.1 IP / 5 hits / 1 ER) impressed in his return from the DL in Wednesday’s 3-1 over Washington plus Matt Kemp stayed hot with two hits and two runs scored. "I'm feeling a lot better at the plate," Kemp told MLB's official website, as he’s batting .328 during a 14-game hitting streak.
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Paul Maholm gets the nod for Atlanta and he labored through 4.1 innings during Saturday's 10-1 loss at San Francisco. The left-hander allowed six runs and eight hits, dropping to 1-4 with a 6.83 ERA over his last five outings. "Pauly usually goes through the lineup rather quickly with a limited amount of pitches," bench coach Carlos Tosca said. "His pitch count was up a little bit with that amount of innings. He always competes. But he wasn't the Maholm we're used to knowing.” I’m confused about that statement, as the Maholm I’m used to (and everyone else as well) was the eighth pick in the 2003 draft by Pittsburgh, but was never able to establish himself as a front-line starter with the Pirates. He would go 53-73 with a 4.36 ERA from 2005-11. Yes, he started extremely well in 2013 but don’t ignore that 6.83 ERA over his last five starts!
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The Dodgers will counter with rookie Hyun-Jin Ryu (4-2, 3.40 ERA). The South Korea native gave up one run and five hits over 6.2 innings during Saturday's 7-1 win over Miami and has lasted at least SIX innings in all eight of his starts. He has allowed five hits or fewer four times. Ryu has 51 strikeouts in 50.1 innings and I’m more than willing to “take the price” tonight with the Dodgers.
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Chicago White Sox +106FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I have rode Chris Sale for the WS twice this year for a premium play and cashed out, they guy is on fire and hell of a pitcher. LA is off a 1 run loss last night and before that off a series loss to Kansas City whose good pitchers took LA to task. I like the White Sox here with their ace on the hill against CJ Wilson, who is also a good pitcher, to win this pitchers duel tonight out in LA. LA has a losing record at home and they do not hit southpaws well, and the White Sox do better than them in that arena so I feel the run support will be there for Sale tonight. Chris Sale has less than a 0.70 WHIP and a 1.16 ERA his last 3 starts. Wilson is a solid pitcher but until Chris Sale falters, I am riding him.
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Texas -122FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There are some teams that some pitchers hate to face and Porcello and the Texas Rangers just don't get along. Over his career the Tiger Righthander has faced this team 5 times and in doing so he has allowed them to give him an ERA nearing 8. He certainly is not having a stellar year although throwing better now than he was. Texas is scoring a lot of runs, winning their last 7 of 8 in the process and Righthanded pitching has been their Bitch, averaging Over 5 Per 9 verses these guys, 6.3 Per 9 Over their last 10, and higher than both of those here at Arlington. This just does not look very good if you are a Tiger Supporter and neither does the fact that Texas Sports a Bullpen ERA of just about 1.6 here at this park this year. School is still out on Tepesch but he will be throwing against the Tigers Weakest Hitting Posture facing a Righty and Texas will be here at home. How important is that? Well, over the last 15 years Texas Ranks #1 in Money Made for Bettors for a Home Team in the American League. I'm gonna play it.
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Kansas City/ Oakland Over 7: The Royals offense is starting to click as they put up 22 runs in a 3 game set vs a bad pitching staff in the Angels. Now they get to take on another bad staff as the A's rank 25th in the league in ERA (4.35). Tonight they send out a struggling Jarrod Parker, who has allowed 16 ER's on 24 hits and 12 walks in 22.3 innings of work. Not good when your about to face a hot KC offense that is 3rd in the league in hitting and scores 4.89 rpg on the road. The A's offense is no slouch either as they have averaged 4.74 rpg overall and 4.75 rpg at home. James Shields has had a good year so far, but he does have a 3.60 ERA in his last 3 road starts and the A's should be able to get at least 3 off of him here. A's home games have averaged 9.9 rpg (11.75 with Packer on the mound at home), while KC Road games have put up 8.84 rpg (9 rpg when Shields starts on the road). 7 is just too low a number here as these teams put up at least 9 runs.
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Chicago/ Angels Under 7: Chris Sale is in a groove as he has allowed no more than 2 ER's in his lat 5 starts, while in his last start he threw a one hit shutout at these same Angels. In that last start vs the Halos he only threw 98 pitches, so he should be pretty fresh for this one. In 2 career starts vs the Halos, Chris has an 0.63 ERA. He is facing an improving angels offense, but he shut them down last week and will do so again here. On the other side we have CJ Wison, who has been pitching better of late, not allowing more than 3 ER's in any of his last 6 starts, posting a 3.43 ERA over that stretch. He has pitched really well vs the Sox in this park, with a 2.25 ERA in 3 starts vs them here, and today he will be taking on one of the worst offenses in the league. The Sox check in at 26th in scoring and 27th in hitting and they only score 3.1 rpg for Sale on the year. Chris' games have averaged just 5.6 rpg on the year. It was a pitcher's duel on Sunday between these starters and I expect the same here.
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Washington/ San Diego Over 7: Let's go for a west coast totals trifecta. The Nats offense is clearly better with Harper in there and last night they put up 6 runs with him back in the lineup after scoring just 1 total run in the two games he missed this week. This Nationals offense is not overly strong, but they have scored 3.7 rpg in their last 10 games, including 4.5 rpg in their last 8 with Harper in there. Tonight they will face Burch Smith, who allowed 6 ER's in just 1 inning in his only career start his last time out. Gio Gonzalez has not been the same pitcher as ast year and he comes in with a 4.20 ERA and a 7.71 ERA in 3 road starts.The Padres are normally an offensively challenged team, but they have been better this year, scoring 3.9 rpg overall and 3.84 rpg at home. In their last 5 games they have been even better, putting up 4.4 rpg. Petco park is no longer the hardest park to sore in as 7.84 rpg have been scored her this year and with 2 struggling pitchers and two capable offenses I see no reason why at least 8 runs can't be scored in this one.
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New York Yankees -143FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Off back-to-back losses, I look for the New York Yankees (25-16) to bounce back with a blowout victory tonight over the Toronto Blue Jays (17-24). Given the edge they have on the mound in this one, that shouldn't be a problem.
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Hiroki Kuroda continues to be one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues. The right-hander has gone 5-2 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.046 WHIP through eight starts in 2013. Kuroda is 3-1 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in five career starts against Toronto as well.
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This play is as much of a fade against Mark Buehrle as anything. The left-hander is 1-2 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.479 WHIP through eight starts this season, including 0-1 with a 7.15 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four road starts. Buehrle is also 1-9 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.613 WHIP in 14 career starts against New York.
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The Blue Jays are 16-43 in their last 59 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Yankees are 40-18 in their last 58 home games vs. a left-handed starter. New York is 15-1 in Kuroda's last 16 starts when working on 4 days of rest. Bet the Yankees Friday.
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Kansas City -113 over OAKLANDFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Royals are 20-17 and just a game behind the Tigers but unlike previous years when a decent start for the Royals meant little, this season is different. The Royals are a legit contender. Amazingly, they’ve had this good start while most of their top young hitters have struggled. Third baseman Mike Moustakas is hitting just .194. Both first baseman Eric Hosmer and catcher Salvador Perez have hit just one jack each. Designated hitter Billy Butler, a career .299 hitter, is batting an uncharacteristic .262. Once that quartet gets going, and they’ve already started to pick it up, the Royals will own the majors most potent offense, if they don’t already. The Royals are third in the league in team batting average behind San Fran and Detroit and will face a struggling Jarrod Parker here. Parker has struggled to repeat the rookie success he had last year and that’s no surprise, as the book on him is out. He comes into this start with a 6.86 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP after walking 22 batters and surrendering 53 hits in 40.2 innings of work. Parker is not THIS bad, but he’s not very good either. With Brett Anderson once again on the DL, the A's can't afford to send Parker down to work out the kinks and we get the benefit of that by fading this righty, who is not very confident right now.
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Then there’s James Shields. Shields’ has been one of the most consistent starters in baseball with consistently strong skills every year since 2010. This year has been no different as Shields enters this matchup with a 53 K’s and 14 walks in 58 frames, a 2.48 ERA a 3.22 xERA, and a 0.97 WHIP. He's thrown seven pure quality starts in eight starts this season so we can expect solid numbers at O.co Coliseum (-31% LHB HR, -12% RHB HR). A pitching mismatch, a hitting mismatch and a cheap price has confidently stepping in.
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San Francisco -110 over COLORADOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jorge De La Rosa is 4-3 with a 2.98 ERA. At home, De La Rosa is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.00 after shutting out both the Yankees and Diamondbacks in a combined 12 innings at Coors Field. Very impressive indeed, on the surface that is, and now we get one of the best “sell high” opportunities of the young season. Surface stats, like W/L records can be very misleading and De La Rosa is at or near the top of that misleading category. De La Rosa has just 28 K’s in 45 frames. Pay more attention to De La Rosa’s 4.21 xERA because the gap between his actual ERA and xERA is guaranteed to narrow. De La Rosa has an ugly 25% line-drive rate, which is pure proof that those frozen ropes are being hit right at people. This is an average pitcher with unsustainable numbers and the best thing about fading him here is that he’s coming off an absolute gem in St. Louis in which he didn’t allow a hit until the seventh inning. In that start, of the 16 batted balls in play only four were hit on the ground. An average pitcher coming off a gem is usually a good fade. That certainly applies here.
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Madison Bumgarner is another pitcher with a profile that has developed its own rhythm and it's full of high notes. An outstanding strikeout rate (54 K’s in 54 IP), rock solid control (13 BB in 54 IP) and pitching to xERA (3.06) make Bumgarner one of the league’s finest. Over his last three starts, Bumgarner has seen is groundball rate jump from 44% to 57%, suggesting he’s beginning to master that skill as well. He's a young virtuoso but is wrongly priced here because the market sees De La Rosa’s numbers. Wager accordingly.
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Cincinnati +114 over PHILADELPHIAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Reds come into this series as one of the hottest teams in the majors with six wins in a row and 10 wins in their past 12 games. After a slow start, Cinci is now 25-16 and just 1½-games back of the Cardinals. The Phillies are three games under .500 and will likely play about .500 ball the entire year. Cliff Lee needs no introductions. At 34, Lee continues to hum along as one of baseball's most dependable starters. He now has five straight seasons or a sub 3.20 ERA and 200 IP. He also has registered 200-plus Ks each of the past two years. However, all those miles eventually take a toll and Lee’s strikeout rate has seen an age-related decline this season. He has 43 K’s in 57 innings and his groundball rate is also trending the wrong way at just 38%. At Citizen’s Bank Park, Lee is 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA and the Reds continue to hit lefties well.
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Tony Cingrani finally hit a speed bump in his rookie season lasting only four innings (85 pitches) in a disaster outing against Milwaukee in his last start. Cingrani's skills to date though have been electric with 37 K’s and just seven walks issued in 28 frames. Cingrani comes in with a 2.89 ERA, a 2.74 xERA and an elite 0.96 WHIP. Expect a rebound outing tonight against a Phillies team hitting only .231 against lefties this year. Cingrani’s fastball is anywhere between 88 and 95 mph and he locates it really well to both sides of the plate. He is an expert at finishing hitters high in the strike zone and he gives the Reds a great chance of winning every time he takes the mound. This one should be no different.
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Chicago +106 over L.A. ANGELSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Angels have dropped two in a row and they’re now an incredible 11 games under .500 and 12 games back of Texas. The Angels are batting a combined .236 and things certainly don’t get easier here against Chris Sale. Sale has 49 K’s and just 12 walks issued in 56 frames, meaning the Halos are going to have to string together some hits to score some runs, something they are usually not capable of doing. Sale has some of the nastiest stuff in the big leagues. His horizontal slider movement is the highest of any LHP starter with at least 40 IP. Only Matt Moore has gotten more horizontal movement on his changeup than Sale among lefties and only Derek Holland has gotten more horizontal movement on their four-seam fastball than Sale among lefties. His line drive rate is just 15%, he has an elite 0.94 WHIP to go along with an impressive 2.94 ERA. All that with a low strand rate of 74%. If Sale he can maintain his excellent control and stay healthy, he will remain one of the best pitchers in the game. As a pooch here, Sale and the South Side offer up tremendous value.
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The Angels are not going to turn this thing around anytime soon. They are managed by a guy who still thinks he can play small ball with a squad that is not built to do that. Ever since he won the World Series with the Angels back in 2002, Mike Scioscia has not changed his style one bit. He over-manages and it’s getting tiresome. C. J. Wilson's wildness returns. Wilson admitted to pitching through elbow pain during the final few months of 2012 and his backers suffered as a result (5.24 ERA in 2H). Reportedly fully recovered from offseason surgery, Wilson's concerns must now shift to another lingering issue. Wilson is walking a thin line with his control. Wilson has had shaky control throughout his career, even as a reliever and 2011 now looks like an outlier. Most pitchers with this poor control are left on the waiver wire. Wilson has issued 28 walks in 47 frames, which has contributed to his unsightly 1.54 WHIP. Current White Sox batters have a career .264 BA against him and when you throw in the walks, they have a .744 OPS against him. Additionally, the South Side is beginning to heat up with three wins in a row and four wins in five games, not to mention the 18 runs they’ve scored in the past three games. With Chris Sale on the hill and being offered a tag, the White Sox are wrongly being billed as the pooch here.
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Ottawa +181 over PITTSBURGHFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The first game result has the Senators undervalued again and that is going to force us to step in again. The final score read 4-1 in the first game of this series but the Senators played a decent game and applied as much pressure on the Pens as they did on them. The difference: the power-play. In order to defeat the Penguins you have to stay out of the box. Pittsburgh’s PP is truly scary. Every time the Pens set up with the man advantage, they look like they are going to score. Pitt connected twice on the power-play in Game 1, while the Sens went 0-5. Paul MacLean will make adjustments. The past two days at practice has featured a heavy dose of killing off penalties and learning how to prevent the Pens from setting up. When the two teams played 5 on 5, the Senators created more scoring chances and will somehow have to find a way to convert some of them.
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Remember, the Penguins won the first game over the Islanders by a score of 5-0. The Isles came back and took Game 2 as a huge dog and the same thing could happen here. We’re not by any means suggesting that the Penguins are not dangerous. Pittsburgh has a huge advantage at the center position in this series and that’s another problem the Sens have to try and work out. Pittsburgh is also loaded with scorers and role players. Where the Penguins can be had is in their own zone, where they often cough up the puck when pressured. The Islanders exploited that area and the Sens can do the same. We also know that the Senators have a true #1 goaltender and if the Senators can dump the puck out of its own end every chance they get and not allow extended pressure in their own end, they can defeat this team. The matchup is much closer than the line suggests and this game is very likely going to be close too. Even if the Senators don’t win this series, the profit potential is too large to pass up.
Andre Ramirez
Rays/Orioles Over 8½
Today we have two teams that have 2 high powered offenses. Pitcher JEREMY HELLICKSON has a 7.02 ERA in his last 3 starts while JASON HAMMEL pitcher for the Orioles has a 7.20 ERA in his last 3 starts. The orioles are a perfect 4-0 on the overs this year versus the Devil Rays. The Orioles are batting 5.2 runs per game versus Right Handed Pitchers. The oddsmakers have set the total wrong and should be a lot higher. Take the Overs for the win