SPORTS ADVISORS
INTERLEAGUE
Boston (22-20) at Philadelphia (26-15)
The Red Sox hit the road to begin interleague play with right-hander John Lackey (4-2, 4.86 ERA) taking the hill at Citizens Bank Park opposite Phillies’ lefty Cole Hamels (4-2, 4.29).
Boston wrapped up a brief two-game home sweep of the Twins on Thursday, winning 6-2 for its seventh win in its last 11 outings. However, the Red Sox went just 2-3 during a recent road trip and are 2-6 in their last eight on the highway and 7-22 in their last 29 as an underdog. On the bright side, Boston has dominated in interleague action, sporting runs against the N.L. of 63-23 overall, 30-12 on the road and 38-13 against the N.L. East.
Philadelphia has won 11 of its last 15 games, including a 5-4 home win over the Cubs on Thursday. The Phillies are 45-19 in their last 64 games as a home favorite and 20-8 in their last 28 against right-handed starters. However, unlike the Red Sox, Philadelphia has struggled in interleague action, as it is on slides of 1-8 at home against the A.L., 5-16 as a favorite and 5-11 against right-handers.
Boston has crushed the Phillies over the last several seasons, winning 13 of the last 16 meetings, including four of the last five Citizens Bank and two of three there last season.
Lackey is coming off back-to-back rough outings, allowing 11 runs on 17 hits in 13 innings (7.62 ERA) against the Blue Jays and Tigers, but he’s still 2-1 in his last three outings. In his long career, Lackey has faced the Phillies just once, back in 2003 as a starter for the Angels, and he allowed one run on five hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 2-1 victory.
Hamels is 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA in his last three starts and is coming off a solid effort in Milwaukee on Sunday, allowing two runs on six hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 4-2 win. The Phillies are 6-2 behind Hamels this season, winning the last four in a row. The only time the San Diego native faced the Red Sox was in 2008, and he held them to two runs on seven hits in seven innings of an 8-2 Phillies’ victory. That said, Philadelphia is 0-4 in Hamels’ last four interleague starts and 3-8 in his last 11 home starts against a winning team.
The Red Sox have topped the total in five of six against southpaws, five of six on the road against National League lefties and three of five on the highway, but they are on “under” runs of 25-11-1 as an underdog, 21-6-1 as a road ‘dog and 29-14-8 on Friday. The Phillies have gone above the posted number in four straight interleague games and eight of Hamels’ last 11 Friday starts, but they’re also on “under” streaks of 14-6-1 as a favorite, 19-6-1 on Friday, 5-2 in Hamels’ last seven interleague starts and 7-3-1 when Hamels is favored at home against A.L. opponents.
Finally, these two have topped the total in eight of the last 11 meetings overall and six of the last eight at Citizens Bank Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
Detroit (24-17) at L.A. Dodgers (23-18)
The surging Tigers send left-hander Dontrelle Willis (1-1, 4.68 ERA) to hill at Dodger Stadium to open an three-game interleague set against the Dodgers and right-hander Chad Billingsley (4-2, 4.03).
Detroit has won seven of its last 10 and finished a two-game sweep in Oakland on Thursday with a 5-2 victory. The Tigers are in slumps oft 2-6 in interleague road games, 17-37 as an interleague ‘dog, 2-7 on Friday and 7-16 in series openers, but they are on positive streaks of 53-23 overall in interleague action, 6-2 versus the N.L. West and 42-19 against N.L. right-handers.
One night after their nine-game winning was streak halted with 10-5 home loss to San Diego, the Dodgers bounced back Thursday and beat the Padres 4-1. In addition to winning 10 of its last 11 games, Los Angeles is on positive runs of 13-7 at home, 7-1 as a favorite, 84-29 as a home favorite, 12-4 at home against winning teams, 4-1 in series openers and 6-1 on Friday. On the flip side, Joe Torre’s troops are in slumps of 29-52 in interleague play, 6-20 versus the A.L. Central, 11-28 against A.L. teams with winning records and 7-20 against left-handed A.L. starters
These teams haven’t met since 2008 when the Tigers swept a three-game set in Detroit, and they haven’t squared off at Dodger Stadium since 2005 when the Dodgers took two of three.
Willis had his worst start of the season on Saturday at home against the Red Sox, giving up four runs on four hits and a season-high seven walks in 3 1/3 innings, but his offense bailed him out and rallied for a 7-6 victory. The former Marlin starter has had no luck against the Dodgers, going 1-5 with a 6.93 ERA in seven career starts against them, including 0-2 with a 5.30 ERA in three starts at Dodger Stadium, allowing 13 runs (11 earned) in just 18 2/3 innings.
The Tigers are just 2-8 in Willis’ last 10 road starts, and the southpaw is 0-1 with a 4.42 ERA in three starts on the highway this season.
Billingsley is 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts, most recently blanking the Padres on Sunday as he scattered four hits over 7 1/3 innings, striking out six and walking one in a 1-0 road victory. The Dodgers have won three of Billingsley’s last four outings, but otherwise they’re 4-10 in his last 14 starts as a favorite, 2-7 in his last nine on Friday and 2-8 when he’s coming off four days of rest.
Detroit has topped the total in seven of its last 11 on the road and 10 of its last 15 as a road ‘dog, but otherwise Jim Leyland’s team carries “under” streaks of 7-1-1 as an underdog, 15-5-1 against N.L. West teams, 14-6-1 in interleague road games, 8-3 as an interleague underdog and 10-4 on the road against National League right-handers. Also, with Willis on the hill, the Tigers have stayed under the total in seven of 10 as ‘dogs, five of six against winning teams and four straight after he gets five days off.
Los Angeles is on “over” runs of 8-3 at home, 8-1 as a home favorite, 11-5-1 in series openers and 18-7-2 when Billingsley starts against a winning team, but it is on “under” streaks of 11-5 in interleague home games, 12-4 at home against American League squads with winning records and 4-1 in Billingsley’s last five outings overall.
Finally, these teams stayed under the total in two of three meetings in 2008 and six of nine clashes since 2003.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Marc Lawrence
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds travel north on I-71 to meet the Indians in this Interleague battle of state rivals when Bronson Arroyo takes the mound against Jake Westbrook at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Arroyo is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his career team starts in this park while Westbrook has dropped two of his three career team starts in this series. With that, look the Reds to make it 11 wins in the last 14 games in this series against the Tribe here tonight.
MTi Sports
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
The Indians are 0-11 as a dog in the first game of a series when they are off a loss. The Reds are 12-0 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after scoring 6+ runs and 8-0 as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last four games. Looks like the Reds are the team on which to be.
Cajun Sports
Florida Marlins vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
This year’s first MLB Interleague Games take place this weekend with a full slate including the Florida Marlins traveling to the Second City for a weekend matchup versus the Chicago White Sox. Florida will send Ricky Nolasco to the bump with his 4-2 record and ERA of 3.59 on the season. Florida is 8-18 versus a starting pitcher who strikes out three or less batters per start during the last two seasons. The Chicago White Sox are 33-17 versus a National League starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 to 4.20 since 1997. They are also are 21-8 as a home underdog in this price range over the last three seasons. Chicago will send Mark Buehrle to the hill with his 2-5 record and ERA of 5.26 but he is 2-1 at home and his ERA improves to 4.23. Mark Buehrle is 12-1 in home games when working on five or six days rest over the last three seasons. With the AL dominating interleague play winning nine of the last thirteen seasons we will back the AL team here as they grab a Game One victory on Friday versus their NL opponent.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Chicago White Sox 4 Florida Marlins 3
BIG AL
Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
This is a matchup of two pitchers headed in opposite directions. John Lackey started off well enough this season, with two solid performances against the Yankees (6 innings, 0 runs), and Twins (6 2-3 innings, 2 runs), but the wheels have come off his cart, so to speak. Over his last two starts -- at home vs. Toronto, and at Detroit -- Lackey has been shelled, giving up 6 runs in 6 innings vs. the Jays, and 5 runs in 7 innings vs. the Tigers. That just won't get the job done against a powerful lineup like the Phillies, and definitely not when his mound opponent is Cole Hamels. The veteran lefty has been masterful over his last three starts, with just 6 runs scored against him in 19 2-3 innings (2.75 ERA). And, even more importantly, the Phils won each of those games! In Hamels' career vs. the BoSox, he has a 2.57 ERA, with a 1.28 WHIP, and his teammates are also pounding right-handed starters this year, hitting .283, and scoring 5.6 runs per game. Take Philly.
Jim Feist
Angels vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 8
The Angels have had offensive problems all season after losing so many key offensive cogs over the winter. They have been on a 5-3 run under the total and now lose the DH, heading to the NL for this series. Joel Pineiro returns to face his old team and the veteran continues to be masterful at painting the corners and not walking anyone, with a 0.84 ERA his last three starts. St. Louis has an excellent control pitcher of their own in Brad Penny (2.73 ERA, 9 walks in 52 innings). Don't look for many runs in St. Louis. Play the Angels/Cardinals Under the total.
Rob Vinciletti
Red Sox vs. Phillies
Play: Under 9
This game fits an 80% under system. What we want to do is play the under when we have both teams coming in off home favored wins scoring 5 or more runs, if the home team won by 1 run. These games have gone under 80% of the time. We also have a nice pitching match up with Lackey and Hamels taking the mound here. Both teams fall into some solid under angles tonight as well. If this total gets to 10 I will make it a late phone play. However at 9 to 9.5 it is a nice free play.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +1.49 over ARIZONA
With Brandon Morrow you’re either going to get a strong outing or a disastrous one and that’s because when he’s on he’s terrific and when he’s wild he gets into a heap of trouble. Morrow just can't seem to harness the control necessary to turn himself into a truly great pitcher but he’s certainly worth taking a chance on because if he comes out throwing strikes, he’s one of the best. The Jays are coming off a heartbreaking loss yesterday but they’re still one of the hottest teams in the majors and it really doesn’t seem to matter who they’re facing. The Jays are seeing BB’s right now and have been for a month or more. This is a great doubles and HR park and that’s right up the Jays alley. The D-Backs are a vulnerable squad with the major’s worst bullpen. That pen has an ERA of 9.20 over its last six games after allowing 14 runs and four bombs over 13.1 innings. Overall the pen has an ERA of 7.71 and an off the charts slugging % of .510. Dan Haren is a decent pitcher but he’s not nearly as sharp as years gone by. He has a BAA of .280, he’s already been taken yard eight times in 59 frames and his ERA at Chase Field is an ugly 5.88 in four starts and that’s after facing NL teams, Pittsburgh, San Diego, St. Louis and the Dodgers. In Haren’s his last two starts, the D-Backs were losers by scores of 13-1 and 13-3 to the Braves and Dodgers respectively. AL vs NL gets the call, as the Jays offer up more great value. Big overlay. Play: Toronto +1.49 (Risking 2 units).
OAKLAND +1.05 over San Francisco
Barry Zito is 6-1 with an ERA of 2.15 and that’s very nice for Barry Zito, it really is. However, one thing you can take to the bank is that a serious regression will happen soon and it might not stop once it does. Basic stats can be very misleading but the real stats are not and overall, Zito’s skills say he's pitching above his head, and that his 6-1 record and 2.15 ERA aren't for real, as his xERA (xERA = expected ERA based on his skills that include command, strand rate, ground ball %, etc) is 4.44. As a favorite on the road, against an AL team, Zito and the Giants offer up very little in terms of value. The Giants offense continues to be a problem and things surely don’t figure to change at the Coliseum. Oakland has its offensive problems too but they’re 15-9 at home and last year Trevor Cahill completely dominated this line-up. Cahill has a 57% GB rate and he also has good command and those two things at this park should allow him to succeed again. Play: Oakland +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. Angels +1.36 over ST. LOUIS
Brad Penny is another Cardinals reclamation project and it’s working out but this isn’t Cincinnati, Houston or San Fran he’s facing. In fact, Penny has faced the Reds and Astros twice this year and the Giants once and that adds up to five of his eight starts. His ERA this month in three starts is 5.00 and the Cards have lost his last four starts. The Cardinals are the most overrated and overvalued team in the majors. Contrary to public belief, the Cards are not a good team at all and that has been masked due to a heavy dose of Brewers, Mets, Astros, Reds and Giants. Current Angel hitters have 101 combined AB’s against Penny and they’re hitting .307 against him and he sure isn’t skinnier this season. Ironically, Joel Pineiro is a former Cards scrap-yard pickup but he’s actually sharper now than he’s ever been. Pinerio has been adding more strikeouts to his high command-high-GB% approach he developed last year, and the results have been terrific. His 3.71 ERA is fully supported by a 55% ground ball rate, and 3.74 xERA. The Cardinals offense is a very beatable one and as long as you don’t allow Albert to beat you, this team is extremely beatable. Mike Scioscia might be the best manager in the game while Tony LaRussa, like the Cards, is the most overrated in the business. The Angels are the superior team here with the vastly superior manager and they offer up one of the best wagers on today’s menu. Play: L.A. Angels +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
MINNESOTA –1½ +1.23 over Milwaukee
After facing the Yanks, Jays and Red Sox all on the road over its last seven games the Twins will be thrilled to come home and see this intruder. Hell, they may even roll out the red carpet for them. The Brewers are a bad NL team that does nothing well. They can’t pitch and the thing they rely on most - its offense, has been pretty much non-existent. The Brewers pen is a mess, its manager is on the hot seat and after this weekend you might be seeing Ken Macha waving goodbye. Milwaukee just ended a nine-game losing streak by defeating the Pirates 4-3 so you’ll have to excuse me while I crap in my pants in awe of the Brewers. And then there’s Dave Bush. Bush (-11 BPV, 0-3-3-2-2 PQS) has spent years posting skills that were better than his surface stats but not this season. He’s no longer fooling anyone and now he’s a broken down pitcher on a broken down squad. It’s a rare day when the Brewers staff allows less than seven runs against. Nick Blackburn isn’t great but he eats innings and can be effective but this has nothing to do with wagering on Blackburn. It has everything to do with wagering on the Twins against the Brewers and frankly, it really does not matter who is on the mound for the Twins. Play: Minnesota –1½ +1.23 (Risking 2 units).
Tom Freese
San Francisco at Oakland
San Francisco starter Barry Zito has allowed 3 or less runs in all 8 of his starts this year. Zito has been on the winning side in 6 of those 8 starts this year. The Giants are 5-1 their last 6 Interleague games and they are 7-1 their last 8 games with Oakland. The A's pitcher Trevor Cahill has pitched past the sixth inning in just one start this year. The Athletics are 14-42 their last vs. a starter with WHIP of less than 1.15 and they are 0-5 their last 5 Interleague home games. PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO
EZWINNERS
Tampa Bay Rays -175
Tampa Bay's starting pitcher Matt Garza has been pitching very well this season. Garza is off to a 5-1 start with an ERA of only 2.38 so far this season and I see no reason why he won't have another dominate performance against the horrible Houston lineup. The Astros have gotten off to the worst start offensively of any team in baseball where they are last in almost every offensive category in the major leagues. The heart of the Houston lineup with Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence has done nothing what so ever this season and I don't expect that to change against Matt Garza. Houston's starting pitcher Brett Myers has pitched pretty well this season, but unless he pitches a shutout against the best team in baseball he will most likely take the loss due to a lack of run support. Houston's record is 1-22 this season when scoring three or fewer runs. Play on Tampa Bay.
JR O'Donnell
ATL (-160) vs PIT
Last night's Atlanta Braves come back will power the Bravos again tonight as Hudson is a flat out stud. We are real high on Ace Tim Hudson 4-1 and 2.41 ERA, he has owned the Pirates the last few times he has faced them. He also has spun a couple a gems the last few games. 13-1 winner over the D Backs. He has only given up a lone run the last 4 starts. Laying the lead on the road has been deadly for some MLB cappers, but in this spot it. Let's ride the winning wave and play on the Atlanta Bravos with T. Hudson Friday.
James Patrick Sports
Reds vs. Indians
The Reds travel north on I-71 to meet the Indians in this Interleague battle of state rivals when Bronson Arroyo takes the mound against Jake Westbrook at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Arroyo is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his career team starts in this park while Westbrook has dropped two of his three career team starts in this series. With that, look the Reds to make it 11 wins in the last 14 games in this series against the Tribe here tonight and Big Game James Patrick complimentary selection is Cincinnati Reds.
VEGAS EXPERTS
New York Yankees at New York Mets
The New York Yankees have the best record in Interleague play since its inception in 1997 with a 133-95 record. The New York Mets tied for the N.L.’s worst Interleague record at 5-10 last season. The Yankees swept the three-game series at Citi Field outscoring the Mets 18-3 in those games. The Mets will start their 35-year old left-handed rookie for the very first time against the Yankees. The Yankees are scoring 5.8 runs per game and add that with a three-game losing streak which makes them a dangerous team. Go with the Yankees.
Play on: New York Yankees
BEN BURNS
Giants @ Athletics
PICK: Under 7.5
The 'under' is 13-4-1 the last 18 meetings between the A's and the Giants. This one has the makings of another low-scoring affair.
Zito has admittedly never pitched too well vs. his former team. He's in great current form though and should be highly motivated to finally deliver vs. the A's. For the season, Zito is 6-1 with a 2.15 ERA and 1.086 WHIP. He's averaged nearly seven innings per start and has seen six of his seven starts stay below the total. His road numbers are even more impressive. In three games away from San Francisco, he's got a 0.89 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Not surprisingly, all three of those games stayed below the number.
Cahill has a 2.55 ERA and 1.075 WHIP his last three games, two of which stayed below the total. He's only made one home start this season and he didn't allow a single earned run in that game, a 4-1 win vs. Texas. Cahill was sharp in his lone start vs. the Giants. In seven innings, he allowed only four hits and one run, en route to earning a 5-1 victory.
The A's have averaged a mere 2.9 runs over their last seven games. For the season, they're hitting only .234 (3.5 runs) in games vs. left-handed starters. Looking back further and we find the 'under' at a profitable 65-46-5 (58.6%) their last 116 vs. southpaws. With the line up to 7.5, consider the Under
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 -110
Big letdown spot for Atlanta after such a huge come from behind win against Cincy yesterday that was capped by a walkoff grand slam. It will be tough to travel and get mentally prepared for this one after such an emotional win. Hudson can hurl, but he is certainly overpriced here when you consider that the Braves have lost 6 of his last 8 series opening starts. The Bucs are 1-2 in Ohlendorf's starts this season, but both of those losses only came by a single run. He certainly isn't getting enough respect here when you consider that the Pirates are 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150, 4-1 in his last 5 series opening starts and 7-2 in his last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Plus, the Braves are just 2-6 in their last 8 meetings in Pittsburgh. Take the Pirates on the run line.