Jack Jones
Oakland A's +110
The Oakland A's are showing great value at home Friday. Former Oakland starter, Barry Zito, has pitched well this season but he has not fared well at all against his former teammates. Zito is 0-3 with a 9.22 ERA and 2.414 WHIP in three starts against Oakland since 2007. He has allowed 14 earned runs and 33 base runners in 13.2 innings. Oakland starter Trevor Cahill faced the Giants once last season in his rookie year, allowing 1 earned run and 5 base runners in 7 strong innings to pick up the 5-1 victory. Cahill is 1-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.075 WHIP in his last 3 starts for the A's as well.
This play also falls under a system that is 45-21 (68%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (OAKLAND) - with a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (NL). Oakland is 15-9 at home this season. The Athletics are 5-0 in Cahills last 5 home starts. The Giants are 2-8 in Zito's last 10 Interleague starts. Bet Oakland Friday.
Info Plays
3* on St. Louis Cardinals -140
Reasons the Cards win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Any team (LA ANGELS) - poor AL hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a good NL starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70), cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games. This is a 51-13 ML System hitting 79.7% since 1997.
2.) Brad Penny has posted a 1.35 ERA in three home starts this season and a 2.73 ERA through 8 starts this year. Joel Pineiro is a former Cardinal that St. Louis will be very familiar with. Pineiro has posted a 6.61 ERA and 1.653 WHIP through three road starts. Bet the Cardinals at home.
Black Widow
1* on Florida Marlins +102
Ricky Nolasco has been absolutely dominant on the road this season. He is 4-2 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.120 WHIP through 8 starts this season. On the road, Nolasco is 3-0 with a 1.76 ERA and 0.880 WHIP in 2010. Mark Buehrle appears to be on the decline this season, going 2-5 with a 5.26 ERA for the White Sox through 8 starts. Nolasco is 8-1 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in road games after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings since 1997. Nolasco is 14-4 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Finally, Nolasco is 14-2 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons. He'll mow down this weak White Sox line-up. Take the Marlins on the Money Line.
Tom Stryker
TEXAS (-140) over Chicago
The home versus road dichotomy is just too juicy to pass up in this game. Texas has ripped off a stellar 11-1 record inside Rangers Ballpark in Arlington this month while Chicago has quietly posted a disturbing 1-11 record on the road in interleague action!
Right-hander Colby Lewis will get the ball for Texas on Friday night. In his last start at Toronto, Lewis got roughed up a little bit allowing five earned runs and three hits in 5.2 innings of work. Colby allowed four walks in that performance against the Blue Jays and that certainly added to his woes. Thankfully, before that start, No. 48 was right on target against Oakland (twice) and Seattle allowing only six earned runs and 14 hits in 22.0 innings of work.
The Cubs will counter with lefty Ted Lilly. In his last four games against Pittsburgh (twice), Florida and Arizona, Lilly was tagged for 16 earned runs and 27 hits in 25.0 innings. That's bad enough for an 0-3 record and an elevated 5.76 ERA! With No. 30 on the bump on the road, the Cubs have dropped seven of their last nine.
There are a few solid team trends that back this investment too. As an interleague underdog, Chicago has dropped 20 of their last 28. Meanwhile, the Rangers have popped for "W's" in 32 of their last 45 as home chalk and 16 of their last 21 in their own backyard. Take Texas with listed pitcher Lewis.
Stan Lisowski
BOSTON
The Phillies have gotten dominated in this series losing 13 of the past 17 matchups. Against the American League, they are a 70% play against club the last 2 seasons. Boston has won 9 out of 14 games vs. southpaws this year.
John Ryan
LAA Angels vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: LAA Angels
5* graded play on Anaheim as they take on St. Louis in inter-league play set to start at 8:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Anaheim will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-10 making 26.8 units since 2004. Play on all dogs with a money line of +100 or higher and is an ice cold hitting team batting .240 or worse over their last 20 games facing an opponent starting a pitcher who was rocked for 7 or more runs last outing. Angels are a solid are 28-10 (+17.7 Units) against the money line after batting 240 or worse over a 10 game span over the last 3 seasons; 17-6 (+13.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 (+8.9 Units) against the money line in road games in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons. Angel bats have been a disappointment so far this season hitting just 248 on the season and scoring 4.1 RPG. However, the bullpen has done a great job sporting a 1.69 ERA over their past 7 games. When compared to a season ERA of 5.20 ERA clearly reflects that the bullpen has improved dramatically and will continue to pitch well moving forward. It is actually the silent bats of the Cardinals that gives the Angels the opportunity for this road win. The Cardinals are batting just 231 and scoring 2.9 RPG over their last 7 games. Bullpen is strong, but they do not have the ability to get the big K when needed. The bullpen has struck out just 79 batters in 105.7 innings this year; not even close to the 1:1 K/IP ratio that many strong bullpens produce. Take Anaheim.
TEDDY COVERS
Padres @ Mariners
PICK: Under 6.5
I’ve gone to the betting window in support of Wade LeBlanc on several occasions already this season, and this matchup with the light hitting Mariners sets up as another excellent opportunity to support this undervalued hurler. LeBlanc was a solid spot starter last year, particularly down the stretch – he allowed only eight runs in his final six starts. LeBlanc’s post All Star break numbers were tremendous, allowing less than a baserunner per inning, holding foes to a .182 batting average against.
Nothing has changed in 2010. LeBlanc continues to mystify opposing hitters, while being virtually ignored by the betting marketplace. He allowed a grand total of six earned runs in his first six starts of the season, including a seven inning, two hit gem against the Dodgers in his last outing. The Padres bullpen behind him ranks third in the majors in ERA, notching six wins while closing out eleven games with a save.
Meanwhile, Seattle’s Cliff Lee appears to be fully recovered from the abdominal strain that forced him on the DL to begin the season. Lee has struck out 25 batters while issuing just a single walk in his first four starts of the season; allowing two runs or less in three of those four outings. The former Cy Young winner has a 1.35 career ERA against San Diego , and the Seattle bullpen behind him has finally rounded into solid form in recent weeks. Expect a true pitcher’s duel tonight, staying Under the total. 2* Take the Under.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -137
The Cardinals are 38-15 in their last 53 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter and 10-3 in their last 13 vs. the American League West. In addition, plays against any team (LA ANGELS) - poor AL hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a good NL starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70), cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games, are 51-13 since 1997. The Angels are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record and 4-10 in their last 14 road games overall. The Cards have quietly won 3 of their last 4 since returning home, and I look for their winning ways to continue in their home ballpark tonight.
Craig Trapp
Giants vs. Athletics
Play: Under 7.5
Zito has struggled against his former team but this is not that same Zito of the last few years. Instead ZITO has been the biggest surprise of maybe any player in the league with a 6-1 2.15 ERA. Zito at his worst this season has been going about 7 innings allowing 2 runs average. Opposing him tonight is Cahill who can really pitch but has been up and down. What he needs is a struggling lineup that strikes out alot just like this SFG lineup he is facing tonight. In fact neither one of these lineups have been hitting well and the under looks like a lock tonight. Last season these two squared off 6 times going under this listed total on 4 of those occacasions with only a 6.33 runs scored in those games. Under looks like easy winner tonight!
Nelly
San Diego + over Seattle
The Padres are still clinging to first place in the NL West but with losses in five of the last seven games, all within the division, the Padres appear to be fading after a hot start. Three of the recent losses came in one-run games so San Diego should actually be capable of turning things right back around. The Padres are a poor offensive team statistically but Seattle has been even worse and the Padres have received far better pitching. Cliff Lee brings a steep price to this match-up but the Mariners are 1-3 in his four starts. Lee has an absurd 25:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio through his four starts but he was hit hard in his last home start. The Mariners snuck out a miraculous ninth-inning win yesterday to snap a five game losing streak but it does not hide a horrible 15-26 overall record including losing marks at home. Wade LeBlanc has allowed two or fewer runs in all seven of his starts this season to compile a 1.54 ERA. He is yet to allow a home run and his numbers on the road have been just as sharp as at home. In the last ten games Seattle is hitting just .224 against left-handed pitching and while San Diego is 7-4 against left-handed starters, Seattle is just 4-8 this season. San Diego has allowed just 3.1 runs per game this season and the pitching staff will now face the worst offensive team in baseball. San Diego has out-scored foes by 43 runs this season compared to the Mariners who have been badly out-scored and continue to lose close games. In what should be a fairly even pitching match-up the underdog Padres should represent the National League well in this game. Lee is a bigger star but he has not necessarily pitched better than LeBlanc and his team has been much worse.