Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday May, 25

Marc Lawrence

Blue Jays at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Blue Jays

When Brandon Morrow takes the mound against Derek Holland and the Rangers in Texas Friday evening the Blue Jays will do so knowing he is 4-0 with a microscopic 0.63 ERA in his road tam starts this season. That's in direct contrast to his 2-3 mark with a 4.36 ERA at home this season. With Holland just 1-3 with a 5.81 ERA at The Ballpark in Arlington this year, look for the Jays to take the opener here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Toronto.

Rob Vinciletti

Cubs vs. Pirates
Play: Under 6.5

This game fits a nice system that has cashed 10 of the last 11 times and plays to the under for home teams like the Pirates off a home loss by 2 or more runs, if they scored 4 or less runs with 5 or more men left on base, vs an opponent like the Cubs that come in off a road loss while scoring 4 or less runs with 10+ hits and 10+ men left on base. The Cubs are averaging just 2.7 runs the past week and the Pirates are hitting just .210 here and have played under in 15 of 19 home games including 8 of 10 when the total is 7 or less. They have also gone under in All games vs losing teams. Chicago has Dempster on the mound and he has a 1.80 road era. The Pirates counter with Burnett and he has a 1.57 home era. Look for this one to play under the total.

Freddy Wills

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

Yovani Gallardo looks for a fifth consecutive quality start as he has turned his season around of late. Though he still posts a 6.00 ERA on the road we are thankful for that because we are getting great odds for him on Friday night as he faces off against the Diamondbacks, a team he has absolutely dominated. The Diamondbacks have a combined 76 AB vs. Gallardo posting just a .211 average and a .528 OPS. That has resulted in Gallardo going 7-0 with a 1.23 ERA which includes a 1.59 ERA in three career starts at Chase Field, where he will pitch late Friday night. To make things even better he is on 5 days rest where the Brewers are 20-6 in his last 26 starts on 5 days rest. He'll also face a cold Ian Kennedy.

Kennedy has given up 6 ER twice in his last three starts and he has given up 4 ER twice in 5 career starts to the Brewers who seem to be hitting the ball better right now even on the road I trust them more than an inconsistent Diamondbacks team. Arizona is 2-9 in their last 11 home games and their bullpen has been a major reason why as they post a 5.08 ERA at home while the Brew crew post a 2.95 bullpen ERA on the road.

Notable Hot Starters:
A.J. Burnett (3-0, 1.05 WHIP, 2.45 ERA)
Josh Johnson (3-0, 0.95 WHIP, 2.14 ERA)
Anthony Bass (2-1, 1.22 WHIP, 1.83 ERA)
Tim Hudson (2-1, 1.02 WHIP, 1.25 ERA)
Lucas Harrel (1-2, 1.44 WHIP, 2.70 ERA)
Clayton Kershaw (2-1, 0.79 WHIP, 0.75 ERA)
Bruce Chen (3-0, 1.22 WHIP, 2.75 ERA)
John Lester (2-1, 1.20 WHIP, 2.70 ERA)
Derek Holland (2-1, 1.15 WHIP, 2.95 ERA)
Tyson Ross (1-2, 1.42 WHIP, 2.55 ERA)
Ervin Santana (2-1, 1.14 WHIP, 1.71 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
There are five cold starting pitchers with ERA's over 6.00 and the pitcher I think has the best shot at winning is Anthony Swarzak of the Minnesota Twins. Despite his 0-3 and 6.75 ERA over his last three he's actually been great at home with a 2.70 ERA at home and he faces Drew Smyly who has given up 4 ER in back to back starts.

Notable Cold Starters:
Tim Lincecum (0-3, 1.75 WHIP, 6.75 ERA)
Dillon Gee (2-1, 1.58 WHIP, 7.13 ERA)
Russ Detwiler (1-2, 1.56 WHIP, 7.37 ERA)
Ian Kennedy (0-3, 1.44 WHIP, 2.70 ERA)

Jim Feist

Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto has a winning record both home and away and is playing well, 5th in baseball in runs scored. The Blue Jays are 22-10 in their last 32 games following an off day and 8-2 in Brandon Morrow's last 10 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Morrow (5-2, 2.63 ERA) has a great arm and in his last three starts has fanned 25 in 20 innings with only 9 walks. Texas starter Derek Holland has a 5.55 ERA against Toronto and the Blue Jays are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. Play the Blue Jays!

Dave Cokin

San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins
Pick: Miami Marlins

The woes continue for Giants righty Tom Lincecum, but Marlins counterpart Josh Johnson has put things together. I'll back Miami tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS

San Francisco +131 over MIAMI

Tim Lincecum is 1-2 on the road with an 8.15 ERA. That’s ridiculous. A nasty 59% strand rate hides the fact that Lincecum, despite the additional free passes, is still near the top of his game with 53 K’s in 48 innings and a 3.64 xERA. He has a solid groundball rate and as a result of all of these top-notch skills, Lincecum’s ERA is sure to take a dramatic dip over the next month. The Marlins have won all four of Josh Johnson’s last four starts but they faced the Padres, Astros, Pirates and Indians over that span. Prior to that, they had won only one of his first five starts. Johnson’s velocity and strikeout rate has dropped for two years running and there could be some health concerns here. He’s certainly a higher risk than Lincecum and so we’ll look to take advantage of some very misleading starter pitcher stats for both sides. Play: San Francisco +131 (Risking 2 units).

David Banks

Yankees / Athletics Under 7.5

The New York Yankees (23-21) are fourth in the American League East despite ranking third in the American League in batting (.261) and second in the majors in home runs (65), which should give you an idea just how bad the pitching has been. Meanwhile, the Oakland Athletics (22-23) are in second place in the American League West despite ranking dead last in the majors with a .210 batting average. The Yankees send Ivan Nova to the hill vs. the Athletics' Tyson Ross when the teams meet on Friday night from the O.co Coliseum in Oakland, CA at 10:05 ET.

The Yankees took their last two games from the Kansas City Royals after dropping the series opener, leaving them 4 games behind those red-hot first place Baltimore Orioles. That said, New York has gotten very little from its starting rotation to this point outside of ace C.C. Sabathia and surprisingly Andy Pettitte, who came back after being retired for a year. Nova has been among the disappointments despite his 4-2 record, as he has a bloated 5.69 ERA and 1.65 WHIP and is allowing an abnormally high .322 opponents' batting average. Yes he has 52 strikeouts against only 16 walks in 49 innings, but he has also allowed 10 home runs already. At least he is facing a weak-hitting offense here as the A's are batting .207 vs. right-handed pitchers while averaging only 3.01 runs per nine innings against them, and the task for the Athletics becomes even more difficult when you consider that they have never faced Nova before.

It is a minor miracle that Oakland is only five games behind the hot-hitting Texas Rangers, as besides its weak hitting, the Oakland starting pitching staff only has a 4.05 cumulative ERA. The saving grace has been the bullpen, which ranks third in the American League with a 2.57 ERA. The A's may be coming back down to earth though after dropping their last two games to the Los Angeles Angels while scoring a grand total of three runs in that three-game series. Their starter Ross is 2-4 with an ugly 5.73 ERA and 1.70 WHIP with opponents hitting .318 off of him. Unlike Nova, Ross is not a strikeout artist that can compensate for allowing so many baserunners, as he has only 19 strikeouts to go along with 16 walks in 37.2 innings. Now to his credit, Ross does allow a ton of groundballs with a fantastic groundball-to-flyball ratio of 4.31. Oddly though, that is not always a good thing in this park where balls put in the air are generally easier to catch with this stadium having the most spacious foul territory in the majors. Like Nova, Ross is making his first ever start vs. his opponents here, and the Yankees have traditionally struggled facing pitchers for the first time.

This is the first meeting between these clubs this year after the Yankees won six of the nine meetings last season including all three matchups here in Oakland. The last time these teams met last August 25th in Yankee Stadium, the Bronx Bombers pummeled the Oakland pitching staff for 21 hits in a 22-9 shellacking in a game the A's once led 7-1.

Ben Burns

Giants @ Marlins
PICK: Under 7

Yesterday, we were able to isolate a pitcher's duel and cashed an "under" ticket with our free play on Seattle/LA "under" the total. The Angels won 3-0. I feel today's Miami/San Francisco game also has a good chance of finishing with a low score.

Johnson has really hit his stride of late. Last time out, he allowed just one run through seven compete innings. He's 2-0 with a stellar 2.14 ERA and 0.952 WHIP his last three starts.

Johnson has made five starts vs. the Giants and four of them have finished below the total. While he hasn't won any of them, he does have a solid 3.18 ERA.

Admittedly, Lincecum has been nothing like "The Freak" of recent years. He hasn't forgotten how to pitch though and a game against the Marlins may prove to be just what the doctor ordered. He's made three starts against the Marlins and is 2-0 with an outstanding 2.11 ERA and 0.844 WHIP. In his last start against them, he had 10 K's and allowed only two hits, hrough seven shutout innings. The Giants won 3-0. In his previous start against the Marlins, Lincecum had a dominating 13 K's with only one walk, also going seven innings.

Even with yesterday's high-scoring opener, nine of the last 11 games in this series have fallen below the total. Consider the Under.

Matt Fargo

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Atlanta Braves

The Braves are happy to be home. After winning their series in Tampa to open their roadtrip, they were swept in Cincinnati in their four-game set and now find themselves a game behind the Nationals which makes this a pretty big early season series. Atlanta has played a tough early season schedule as it has played 29 games on the road compared to just 17 games at home so it has hung in there very well. The Braves are 60-28 in their last 88 home games following a roadtrip of seven or more days.

Washington is back in first place thanks to the Braves stumble and after a red hot start to the season, the Nationals have definitely slowed down. They opened 14-4 but have gone 12-14 over their last 26 games and a very inconsistent offense has been the issue. Washington has scored three runs or less in 14 of those games and overall it is hitting just .243 including .233 away from home. The Nationals are 49-102 in their last 151 road games against teams with a winning record.

After a couple tough starts to open the season, Tim Hudson has turned the corner as he has tossed three straight quality outings. He has gone at least seven innings in each of these last three starts and has a 1.25 ERA to show for it. The Braves are 4-1 in his five starts and facing the Nationals should add to that as Hudson has owned them over the years, going 14-3 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 23 career starts. The Braves are 7-1 in Hudson's last eight home starts.

Washington got some great efforts from Ross Detwiler to start the season but things have gone south quickly. He won the spot over John Lannan in spring training which was controversial but it looked genius early on as Detwiler posted a 2.10 ERA through six starts but he has allowed 10 runs over 10 innings in his last two starts. The Nationals have lost his last two road starts, scoring just two runs in each game and going back, they are 3-12 in his last 15 starts as a road underdog.

Bryan Power

Astros @ Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers -1.5

This looks like an excellent opportunity to lay the 1.5 runs with the favored Dodgers Friday night in LA against what is still a sub-par Houston club. Not only are the Astros due to lose after sweeping the terrible Cubs at home, but LA has revenge for a 12-0 loss suffered at Minute Maid Park on April 22nd.

The Dodgers won the first two games of that three game set last month, including a win by tonight's starter Clayton Kershaw, who tossed seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball in a 5-1 Los Angeles victory. Kershaw was even better his last time out, throwing a complete game shutout against St. Louis. In fact, he hasn't allowed a single earned run over his last 16 innings of work.

Don't look for Houston to solve Kershaw, particularly on the road where they are 12-46 as a dog of +150 or higher. With LA already 19-4 in home games, and off a loss to boot, lay the -1.5.

Sean Murphy

San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
PICK: New York Mets

The fact that the Mets lost the opener of this series on Thursday night wasn't a big surprise. It was a big bounce back spot for the Padres after getting swept in St. Louis, while New York was coming off a moderately successful six-game road trip.

Helping the Padres cause was the fact that they sent a left-handed pitcher to the mound. For whatever reason, National League teams have really struggled against southpaws this season, and the Mets are no exception.

San Diego remains a weak road team at 5-13 on the season. I actually believe the Pads' are better-suited to the role of large underdog than in near pk'em games such as this.

Anthony Bass will take the ball for the Padres tonight. He's coming off back-to-back impressive outings against the Nationals and Angels, but we've yet to see him deliver three quality starts in a row this season, and I don't think that changes tonight.

Note that in spite of his sparkling 2.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, Bass has still only managed to post a 3-5 team record in eight starts.

The Mets will counter with Dillon Gee. He had been rocked in back-to-back outings against the Phillies and Brewers before responding with a quality outing against the Blue Jays last Sunday. It's interesting to note that Gee has struggled mightily at home this season, going 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA. The Mets have lost all four of his starts here at Citi Field. That isn't likely to last, as he recorded an 8-5 team record in 13 home starts last year, at one point reeling off five straight wins.

This is a solid rebound spot for Gee, as in his lone previous start against the Padres he allowed only five hits and one earned run over 6 2/3 innings in a 7-3 Mets win in San Diego last August.

The Mets are getting dangerously close to dropping back to .500 again, and their schedule gets scary tough for the next month following this series. Check this out; New York will face the Phillies, Cardinals, Nationals, Yankees, Rays, Reds, Orioles, and finally the Yankees again before catching their next break in the form of a series with the Cubs in the final week of June. That makes these three games against the Padres this weekend all the more important.

Jimmy Boyd

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 +105

The Dodgers are showing value on the run line at home with ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound. First off, L.A. is 19-4 in home games this season, winning them by an average score of 4.7 to 2.7. Secondly, Kershaw has been unbelievable at 4-1 with an ERA of 1.90 through 9 starts. He's 3-1 with an ERA of 1.62 in 6 home starts. The Dodgers have won 22 of his last 27 starts. He hasn't given up a single run in back-to-back wins, during which the Dodgers have outscored the opposition 9-1. Lastly, Houston scheduled starter Lucas Harrell has been awful on the road, where's he's 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA through 5 starts. The Astros have dropped each of those 5 by an average of 2.6 runs. Take L.A. on the run line.

WUNDERDOG

San Antonio at Connecticut
Pick: Connecticut -7

The Connecticut Sun has a lot of quality University of Connecticut players on the roster. Don't underestimate how much these players are used to pressure, and most of all used to winning. They also have great familiarity with each other. Tina Charles is quickly becoming the top post player in the league. And, with Kara Lawson splitting time with Rene Montgomery, the Sun has two true, experienced point guards. Add in Kelana Greene and Asjha Jones, and the UConn stars are mixing it up together. The Siver Stars are feeling good after a big road win over lowly Tulsa, but that will likely hurt them here. San Antonio is just 21-38 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and they are also 8-26 ATS when coming off a rare road win over a division rival. The Stars get a dose of reality here. Play on Connecticut minus the points.

MLB Predictions

Cubs / Pirates Under 7

Ryan Dempster will get the start for Chicago and he has gone 16 games without a win coming into tonight. With that said, Dempster hasn't been bad at all. He is 0-2 this season with a 2.28 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and .211 opponents batting average. He will face a Pirates team that is hitting just .206 against righties as a team with a low .257 OBP. A.J. Burnett will be going up against Dempster, and he has been solid for the Pirates minus one rough outing. Burnett is 2-2 with a 4.78 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and .270 opponents batting average. Although those numbers don't look good he has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs against in 5 of his 6 starts. His start against St Louis back on May 2nd where he allowed 12 earned runs has inflated his numbers. He has struckout 33 and walked 10 this year. Take note that the Cubs are averaging just 3.52 runs per game while the Pirates are averaging just 2.86 runs per game on the year. The UNDER is 8-2-3 in the Cubs last 13 games following a day off, and 5-2-1 in the Pirates last 8 games following a day off. The UNDER is 7-3-1 in Dempster's last 11 starts overall, and 8-1-1 in his last 10 starts with 5 days of rest. The UNDER is 18-5-3 in the Pirates last 26 home games, and 33-16-4 in their last 53 games overall. Neither team has been scoring many runs this year and with two good pitchers on the mound I like the value we have on the UNDER.

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5

I've picked my spot here with another run line play on the Dodgers. Take note that the Dodgers are 30-14 on the season and a stellar 19-4 at home this year. The Astros are a respectable 21-23 this season, but are just 5-13 away from home. Despite some injuries the Dodgers have won 6 of their last 7 games, and scored 6+ runs in those 6 wins with 4 runs in their loss. The Astros have won 3 straight heading into tonight, but those were home games against the 15-29 Cubs. Tonight the Astros go with Lucas Harrell on the mound. Harrell is 3-3 on the season with a 4.09 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and .262 opponents batting average. On the road he is 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and .283 opponents batting average. The Dodgers counter with lefty ace Clayton Kershaw who is 4-1 on the season with a 1.90 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and .193 opponents batting average. At home he is 3-1 with a 1.62 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and .191 opponents batting average. He is trying to repeat his amazing season at home last year where he went 12-1 with a 1.69 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and .191 opponents batting average - and it looks like he could be heading to similar numbers. These two teams have met three times this season in Houston, with the Dodgers winning 2 of 3 and both were by 2 runs or more (including a 5-1 win in a game Kershaw started). Note that the Astros are just 14-44 in their last 58 road games dating back to last season, and 9-29 in their last 38 games vs a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. The Astros are also just 2-6 in Harrrell's last 8 starts, and 0-5 in his last 5 road starts. The Dodgers are 42-16 in their last 58 home games dating back to last season, and 9-2 in their last 11 following a day off. Los Angeles is 35-16 in Kershaw's last 51 starts, and 42-20 in his last 62 home starts. Injuries or not the Dodgers are almost unstoppable at home this season, while the Astros struggle on the road. Behind Kershaw I like the Dodgers to win this game by at least 2 runs. Take Los Angeles on the run line at a good price.