Ross King
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
Many handicappers will say picking baseball winners is not as easy as picking the better starting pitchers so let us put this to the test again.Kershaw is 4-1 e.r.a 1.90 whip 0.888 and is 3-0 with an e.r.a of 0.64 in his last 4 starts versus Houston and has only given up 2 runs in his last 28 innings against them.Kershaw is 14-1 at home in his last 20 starts with an e.r.a of 1.50.Dodgers are 6-2 last 3 seasons against Houston and Kershaw is 3-1 e.r.a 2.61 whip 1.026 versus Houston.Dodgers are currently 19-4 at home and 6-1 on Friday while Houston the last 3 seasons on Friday are 17-42.Houston is 5-13 currently on the road and 64-117 the last 3 seasons.Houston has lost the last 5 of Harrel starts on the road and he is 0-3 with a 5.60 e.r.a.Take the better team and starting pitcher and lay the run and a half on the runline as your friday freeplay winner.
Dave Price
Milwaukee Brewers +109
The Brewers get the call as our free play with Gallardo on the bump. Outside of 2 starts he has pitched well this season. Dating back to last year, he has given up 3 earned runs or fewer in 23 of his last 29 starts. He has had his way with Arizona. He's 6-0 (7-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.23 in 7 career starts versus the D-backs. Bet the Brew Crew.
Jeff Alexander
Detroit Tigers -135
After dropping 3 in a row in Cleveland, expect the Tigers to take out their frustration on the lowly Twins. The Twins are 28-72 in their last 100 overall. They have lost 18 of their last 24 versus Detroit, including 8 of their last 10 at home. The Twins have lost each of Swarzak's 3 starts this season, during which he has posted a 6.75 ERA. They are 2-8 in his last 10 starts and 3-10 in his last 13 home starts. Smyly gives the Tigers the better chance to win (2.89 ERA). Take Detroit.
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers -135
After getting swept in their last series by the Cleveland Indians to fall to 20-24, the Detroit Tigers will be very hungry for a victory tonight in Game 1 against the Minnesota Twins. They should have no problem getting a win against a team that is tied for the worst record (15-29) in baseball.
Detroit sends underrated rookie left-hander Drew Smyly to the mound tonight as he looks to continue his success in the early going. Smyly has pitched great, going 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in eight starts. He's 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in four road outings.
Minnesota starter Anthony Swarzak is simply overmatched in this one. Swarzak is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.636 WHIP as a starter this season. He's pitched much better out of the bullpen, but he's been terrible when asked to start. Swarzak is also 0-1 with an 11.57 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two career starts against Detroit.
The Tigers are 26-10 against the money line after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is 6-1 in their last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Tigers are 36-16 in their last 52 games following a loss. The Twins are 13-38 in their last 51 home games, and 3-10 in Swarzak's last 13 home starts. Bet the Tigers Friday.
WUNDERDOG
Colorado at Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati -155
The Colorado Rockies coughed-up a golden opportunity to get off to a good start, build some team confidence and momentum, as their first 27 games saw 18 of them played at home. They didn't get it done. The aftermath is a 16-27 record with just seven of those coming on the road. The Rockies are shaping-up to be a team destined to lose 90+ games before all is said and done. Cincinnati has won six straight, all vs. winning teams, and really has it going. The staff has been rock-solid, allowing 10 runs total in their last five games. They have their top pitching option on the hill tonight in Johny Cueto, who on regular rest has led the Reds to a 22-8 record in his last 30 starts. The Rockies are not benefitting from a rare win and are 1-8 in their last night when following a victory. Play on Cincinnati.
Steve Janus
Philadelphia Phillies -116
The Phillies out-slugged the Cardinals 10-9 in the first game of the series, and I really like their chance of beating St Louis again on Friday.
Philadelphia will send out Cliff Lee against Kyle Lohse. Lee is 0-2 on the season, but has pitched much better than his record indicates. He has a 2.66 ERA in six starts and an amazing 0.56 ERA in two starts on the road. Lee also has a 2.48 ERA in five career starts against St Louis.
Lohse got off to an incredible start, as he comes into tonight's game 5-1 with a 2.91 ERA. However, Lohse has really struggled in his last two starts, giving up eight runs on 20 hits in just over 12 innings of work. Look for the Phillies offense to stay hot and give Lee plenty of run support in this one.
Philadelphia is 20-6 in their last 26 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150, 7-1 in Lees last 8 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, and 10-1 in Lees last 11 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
St Louis/ Philadelphia Over 7.5: (Added) Last night played it safe with this play and had it as a lesser play, but I won't do that here. Cardinal home games have been very high scoring as they have gone 16-5 OVER, with an average of 10.7 rpg being scored. Both offenses have some injuries, yet last night the teams combined for 33 hits and 19 runs. Granted there was weaker pitching last night than today, but it wasn't all the starter's fault last night as the pens combined to allow 6 runs and 15 hits. Cliff Lee goes for Philly tonight and he has pitched well with a 2.66 ERA, but the only good offense he has faced this year was in his last starts vs the BoSox and he allowed 5 ER on 9 hits in that start. Tonight he will face another strong offense as the Cards have averaged 6.2 rpg and have hit .295 at home this year. They also hit .295 and have scored 6.05 rp/9 off of lefties at home with 4 of their 5 home games vs lefties going over the total. The Phils haven't scored a whole lot this year, but they are 5th in the league in hitting, at .267 and hat should continue tonight vs Kyle Loshe, who has struggled of late. Kyle comes in with a 4.77 ERA in his last 5 starts, with all 5 start putting up at least 9 runs. He also has a 5.68 ERA in his last 2 starts at home, with both of those starts hitting at least 10 runs, plus we note that he has a 5.45 ERA in his last 6 starts vs the Phils. St Louis has one of the top hitters parks in the league right now and both of these teams have good enough offenses to put DD on the board again. Look for about 12 runs in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Chicago/ Pittsburgh Over 6.5: Yes I know how low scoring Pittsburgh home games (5.38 rpg) have been this year, but will go with the Over here. AJ Burnett has pitched well for the Pirates this year, as he has allowed more than 2 runs just once so far, but that can't continue forever. He will be taking on a Chicago team that is in desperate nee of a win, plus the Cubs do score 3.8 rpg on the road. AJ has 5 starts vs the Cubs in his career and while he is 4-0 in those starts, he does have a 4.06 ERA in those starts, which would indicate some high scoring games and that's true as 4 of his 5 career starts vs the cubs have put up 7 or more runs. The Pirates don't score a whole lot, especially at home where they have averaged just 2.5 rpg, but they should be able to put up some runs tonight vs Dempster. Ryan Demptster has a nice ERA on the year, at 2.28, but he does come in struggling as he has allowed 4 ER in each of his last 2 starts. Now Ryan has also struggled with Pitt of late as he has a 7.00 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, including posting a 5.25 ERA in 4 starts vs them last year. 3 is the key number and i feel we can get that from both teams. Pittsburgh pitching has allowed 3 runs or more in each of their last 9 games, while Cubs pitching has given up 3 runs or more in 11 of their last 13 games. Both teams should get vat least 3 runs as this one hits 7 runs with ease.
Texas/ Toronto Under 9: (Added) Surprisingly this year Texas home games have gone 12-5-1 UNDER this year, with an average of just 8.4 rpg being scored. Texas does lead the league in scoring at 5.38 rpg, but they only averaged 4.8 rpg at home this year, after putting up 6.1 rpg at home last year. Tonight they should struggle in the hitting department once again as they take on Brandon Morrow, who comes in with a sparkling 0.63 ERA in his 4 road starts this year, with an average of 7 rpg being scored in those starts. Brandon has also allowed just 2 ER in each of his last 3 starts vs the Rangers. Derek Holland has struggled at home with a 5.60 ERA in 4 starts, but his 4 home starts have averaged just 8.3 rpg. He should have a good showing tonight vs a Toronto team that has hit lefties on the road at just a .201 clip. Should Derek get in trouble he does have a solid pen behind him that has a 2.40 ERA at home, plus in his 4 home starts that pen has allowed just 2 runs total after he has left the game. Toronto also has a good pen as they come in with a 2.90 ERA on the road. Wind isn't always a factor for me, but I will look at it tonight as we get about a 17 MPH wind blowing in from right. Texas has struggled to score of late and Toronto averages just 4.2 rpg on the road. Look for this one to struggle to hit 7 runs.
Washington/ Atlanta Over 7: (Added) Risking taking an OVER in an Atlanta game with all the offensive struggles they've had of late, but I still feel these teams can put 7+ runs on the board tonight. Ross Detwiler had a strong start to the year, but he has struggled of late with a 7.31 ERA in his last 3 starts. now tow of the three starts were vs Pittsburgh and San Diego (weak hitting teams) and he allowed 3 and 5 runs to those teams respectively. Atlanta struggled to score on their road trip, but they are back home where they have averaged 5.47 rpg. Digging a little deeper we see that the Braves have hit .268 and have scored a whopping 7.34 rp/9 at home vs lefties on the year. Washington struggles to score everywhere, but they still average 4.1 rp/9 on the road vs righties, compared to just 1.6 rp/9 on the road vs lefties. Tim Hudson does have a 3.00 ERA in 2 home starts this year, but behind him is a pen that has an ERA of 5.05 at home on the year. I fully expect at least 4 runs from the Nats in this one, while the Braves offense should open up a bit now that they are home and put at least 4 runs on the board themselves. Brave home games have averaged 10.1 rpg and that's just about where I expect this one to land.
John Ryan
Blue Jays at Rangers
Prediction: Under
5* graded play UNDER the posted total when Toronto takes on Texas set to start at 8:05 PM ET. Texas is just 4-6 over their last 10 games, but still enjoy a comfortable five game lead over the Oakland A?s in the American League West division. Toronto is in third place in the Al East trailing division leader Baltimore by four games. Texas and Toronto rank first and second in MLB having outscored their opponents by 79 and 35 runs respectively. So, this is clearly a play that qualifies under by Contrarian Betting Method.
The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than nine runs will be scored in this game. One of many way sa game turns into a low scoring battle is not give an opponent four or five out innings. What this simply means is not committing errors. Each error made, essentially adds another out for an offense and can add at least six pitches to the pitcher?s pitch count. Texas ranks eighth in MLB averaging just 0.51 errors per game and have posted a 98.6% fielding percentage. Toronto ranks 24th in MLB averaging 0.84 errors per game with a 97.9% fielding percentage. Although, 24th appears to be poor, MLB as a whole is playing excellent defense, and Toronto?s numbers are strong.
Toronto is 28-13 UNDER making 13.2 units per one unit wagered in road games when facing solid good fielding teams averaging 0.6 or fewer errors per game over the last two seasons. Moreover, Toronto is a solid 42-24 UNDER making 15.1 units per one unit wagered in road games after two or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons.
Texas is 61-29 UNDER making 28.3 units per one unit wagered when revenging two straight losses where opponent scored eight or more runs since 1997. Take the UNDER.