Mike Lundin
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres -137
Two struggling teams will take Petco Park for the opener of a three-game set Monday night as the San Diego Padres will host the Cincinnati Reds. The visitors have won just one of their last five while the home team has dropped six on the bounce, but I like the Friars to end that skid tonight as they send Ian Kennedy to the mound. The 30 year old right-hander has won each of his last two starts in front of the hometown crowd while allowing just a total of three runs through 12 frames and he's 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA in his last five home starts. He's 4-1 with a 2.40 ERA in six career starts against the Reds who are 1-4 in their last five games vs. a right-handed starter. The Reds will turn to David Holmberg who'll make his third appearance for the year. He's conceded four runs on seven hits and seven walks through 11 innings in the first two.
Notes
Cincinnati is 1-4 in its last five games as an underdog.
San Diego is 5-2 in Kennedy's last seven starts as a home favorite.
San Diego has won five of the last six meetings at Petco Park.
Scott Spreitzer
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres -136
The Cincinnati Reds have been a fantastic go-against in the situation they're in tonight, winning just 12 of 46 as a road dog of +125 to +150, scoring just 3 rpg along the way. The Reds are getting very little production in a couple of key categories at the plate, ranked 26th in team batting average and 25th in OBP on the road. Indeed, they're dead last in August with a .198 batting average, while also dwelling near the bottom of the league in August OBP. Padre starter Ian Kennedy stands to benefit tonight. Kennedy owns a sizzling 2.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in his last five home starts, and a 2.89 ERA in his last four against the anemic Reds. I'm backing the Padres as they look to extend their run to 8-1 in head-to-head meetings with the Reds.
Will Rogers
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals -195
The Kansas City Royals swept the White Sox at home over the weekend, and they'll play host to the struggling Detroit Tigers in a three game series at Kauffman Stadium beginning Monday. The Royals send Johnny Cueto to the mound in Game 1, and you have to like the home favorite given the mismatch on the mound.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Cueto (7-7, 2.69 ERA) will be making his home debut for Kansas City, after coming up short in two starts on the road. The right-hander pitched reasonably well in those games, but the Royals failed to get him enough runs at Toronto and Detroit. The Tigers counter with rookie left-hander Matt Boyd, who picked up his first major league win in his debut for the club opposite Cueto last week. He was hammered in his two previous starts for Toronto, giving up 11 runs on 15 hits over 6.2 innings.
2. Home Cookin' - The Royals home record of 37-18 is the best in the American League, and their team batting average of .278 at Kauffman is third overall in the majors behind only Colorado and Toronto.
Marc Lawrence
Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -125
Edges - Dodgers: Brett Anderson 3-1 last four team starts during the month of August, and 7-4 last eleven overall home team starts. Nationals: Gio Gonzalez 4.80 ERA away as opposed to 2.60 ERA home this season. With the Nats just 6-14 their last twenty games in this park, we recommend a 1-unit play on the Dodgers.
Art Aronson
Cincinnati vs. San Diego
Play: Under 7
The visitors hand the ball to David Holmberg (1-0, 3.27 ERA), who gave up two runs off two hits over five-plus innings in his debut vs. the Cards on Wednesday. He'd also strike out three. Holmberg has given up four runs over his 11 innings of work and faces Ian Kennedy (6-10, 4.49 ERA), who is coming off a fourth straight quality start and who has given up 19 runs over his last 60 1/3's innings of work. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and recent performance and with both of these hurlers coming into this one on top form, there's no question in our minds that the UNDER is indeed worthy of a second look in this matchup.
Jim Feist
Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners
Pick: Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles still have a shot in the AL East, just five games back of the Yankees. Both the Orioles and Blue Jays are both breathing down the struggling Yankees collective necks. The O's start Wei-Yin Chen today. Chen has pitched well, allowing three runs or less in four of his last five starts. The Mariners took the rubber game of their series with the Rangers on Sunday. The club has won six of the last 11 games. They will start Vidal Nuno today. Nuno was acquired by the Mariners in June and will make only his second start of the season here tonight. Nuno has a decent ERA of 2.52 from mainly the bullpen this season. The southpaw only went 3 2/3 innings in his first start on August 4th in Colorado. The Orioles are the better team with the better pitcher starting. Nuno won't go long in this contest no matter how he pitches. I like the Orioles to continue to improve in the AL East.
Rob Vinciletti
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox -139
Chicago has C. Sale going and he is 3-1 with a 1.35 Era vs the Angels and complete game shut them out the only time he has faced them here. Shoemaker goes for the Angles and he has a 5.40 era vs Chicago. The Angels are 5-25 as a road dog from +125 to +150. Road dogs like LA are 0-9 if the total is 8 or less and they are off a 1 run home favored win where they had 10+ hits and are taking on an opponent off a road dog loss that scored 4 or less runs on 5+ hits. Look for the Whitesox to take the opener.
Mr Vegas
Rockies vs Mets
Play: Over
The New York Mets have to be scratching their heads today. They had seven game win streak and newly captured first place in the NL East heading into the weekend. However, they blew nice leads in both Saturday and Sunday's games against the Rays. Still, they are 7-4 in their last 11 games and 1 1/2 games in first place. Jon Niese will try and get them back on the winning track here tonight. Niese has put together two very nice outings since allowing six runs over three innings to the Dodgers back on July 24. The Mets are also hitting very well, averaging 5.7 runs per game over their last 11 contests. The Mets should get healthy here in the Rockies series. Colorado has allowed 37 runs over their last six games (6.2 rpg). What's a bit surprising is that they are 3-1 in their last four games, thanks in big part to scoring 19 runs over those games. Offense hasn't been an issue with the Rockies, it's been their pitching that has been cause for concern. They start Jon Gray tonight. Gray has just one start and that was four innings against the Mariners on Aug 4. The Mets are still hot, especially with the bats. If Colorado can get us 2 or 3 runs, this one goes over easily. Even if they don't, the Mets could get this one over by themselves.
Alan Harris
Philadelphia at Arizona
Play: Philadelphia
The Philadelphia Phillies will look to stay one of the hottest teams in the league since the All-Star break when they take on the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight at Chase Field in Phoenix. Aaron Harang, who has been a bit up and down this season for the Phillies will get the start for them tonight. He has posted a 5-12 record with a 4.11 ERA and he comes into the game tonight a loser in nine of his last ten starts. However, he has been good against Arizona in his career, posting a 3.28 ERA in 18 starts versus the DBacks and we expect him to be good against them once again this evening. Harang will be opposed by Rubby De La Rosa, who has been pretty good for Arizona this season, posting a 9-5 record with a 4.56 ERA in 22 starts here in 2015. Despite having one of the worst records in the league, the Phillies have actually been pretty good in the spot they are in here tonight. They have gone 14-5 in their last 19 games where they were listed as an underdog and they are a perfect 7-0 in their last seven Game #1's of a series. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, have really struggled in the situation we find them in here tonight. They are just 3-8 in their last 11 games when facing a team from the NL East and they have lost four straight games following a win. Throw in the fact that the Phillies are 4-1 in the last five head to head meetings between these two at Chase Field and we'll take them tonight.
Joe Gavazzi
LA Dodgers -135
Each of these teams travels east to west. Washington begins the first of a lengthy west coast road trip, while the Dodgers return home after being swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates last night. Entering the game, the Dodgers still lead the Giants (losers of 4 straight) by 3 games, while Washington remains 1½ behind the Mets. The Nationals certainly had their chance for victory yesterday. Trailing 6-4 in the bottom of the 9th, the Nationals had the bases loaded with the heart of their order at the plate against the weakest bullpen in the league. They failed to score a run, extending their recent slide to 11-17. Far prefer the home-standing Dodgers who are 37-18 on this field and 82-40/loss L3Y. Washington sends Gonzalez to the mound, who has a PLAY AGAINST 1.60 road WHIP, while the Dodgers have won 7 of 11 Anderson home starts, in which he has a 1.20 home WHIP, as well as a solid 3.13 ERA for the season.
Stephen Nover
Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Washington Nationals +135
The Dodgers are in a tough spot with an ineffective bullpen carrying a heavy fatigue rating, already without Justin Turner and likely to be minus Howie Kendrick and traveling to the West Coast after getting buried by the Pirates in Pittsburgh in the ESPN Sunday Night Game.
Once you get past Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke, the Dodgers' pitching isn't that good. The Dodgers are just three games above .500 if you discount all the games Kershaw and Greinke have pitched. Lefty Brett Anderson is facing a desperate Washington lineup that now is fully healthy with the exception of Denard Span. The key for the Nationals is that their big right-handed bats, Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth, are hot.
The Nationals are pitching lefty Gio Gonzalez, who has thrown seven straight games where he's allowed two earned runs or fewer. He's 4-0 with a 1.77 ERA during this time frame. Gonzalez also has a good history against the Dodgers with a 2.50 ERA in three career starts. LA is .500 versus southpaws this season.
Skeptics can point to Gonzalez's 3-3, 4.80 ERA on the road this season. Gonzalez, however, has been pitching his best away ball of the season giving up only three earned runs during his past three road outings spanning 15 2/3 innings. Gonzalez has 16 strikeouts during this road span.
Bruce Marshall
Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies
Might as well keep riding the Phillies, off of a sweep over the Padres in San Diego this weekend and an MLB-best 16-5 since the All-Star break. The Phils are suddenly scoring runs galore, with new faces such as 3B Makiel Franco providing extra pop to the attack. Monday starter Aaron Harang is capable is giving Pete Mackanin five or six innings tonight as the Phils go for their eighth win in nine tries on the road and also their 8th in 9 games vs. the host D-backs.
Jimmy Boyd
Arizona Diamondbacks -146
While the Phillies are an MLB-best 16-5 since the All-Star break, I don't like their chances of getting a victory on the road against the Diamondbacks. Even with a 3-game sweep of the Padres in San Diego over the weekend, Philadelphia is just 18-38 on the road this season. I look for those road woes to show up, given the big edge Arizona has on the mound.
The Diamondbacks will send out the red-hot Rubby De La Rosa against the slumping Aaron Harang. De La Rosa has a 2.84 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in his last 3 starts, all of which have results in wins for Arizona. De La Rosa is also 6-1 in 11 home starts. Harang has a 7.80 ERA and 2.467 WHIP in his last 3 outings and owns a 4.31 ERA over 8 road starts (2-6 team record).
The Phillies are 8-30 in their last 38 road games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs, 15-32 in their last 47 after 3 straight wins by 2 runs or less and 6-26 in their last 32 road games after playing 3 or more consecutive games on the road. Diamondbacks are 10-3 in De La Rosa's 13 starts this season with a total set at 8 to 8.5 runs, 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series, 6-0 in their last 6 versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.300 and 7-1 in their last 8 against a team with a losing record.
Brandon Lee
Baltimore Orioles -116
Baltimore is worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Mariners. Seattle's Vidal Nuno will be making his 2nd start of the season after being primarily used out of the bullpen. Nuno gave up 3 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks in just 3 2/3 innings of work in his first start. Keep in mind that Nuno went just 2-12 with a 4.29 ERA over 28 starts in 2014. Hard to not like Baltimore in this spot, given that they will send out Wei-Yin Chen, who has a solid 3.15 ERA and 1.292 WHIP over 8 road starts. Chen also has a respectable 3.33 ERA in 7 career starts against the Mariners and has allowed just 5 runs in his last 22 1/3 innings of work against them. Mariners are 9-19 in their last 28 home games with a money line of +125 to -125 and Chen is 20-6 in his last 26 starts against the AL West.