Jack Jones
Los Angeles Angels +121
We are getting the Los Angeles Angels at a tremendous price today against the Chicago White Sox, who have lost six of their last seven. The Angels own the final wild card spot in the American League right now, just three games ahead of the Orioles.
Now we get to back one of the hottest starters in baseball as an underdog. Matt Shoemaker is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in his last three starts, pitching 19 shutout innings while striking out 27.
While there's no doubt Chris Sale is one of the best starters in baseball, he has really struggled of late. Sale is 1-2 with an 8.31 ERA and 1.673 WHIP in his last three starts. He has given up 14 earned runs and 22 base runners over 10 2/3 innings in his last two outings.
The Angels are 15-3 in Shoemaker's last 18 road starts. Los Angeles is 11-1 in Shoemaker's last 12 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Los Angeles is 8-2 in its last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter. The White Sox are 0-5 in their last five games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +129 over LOS ANGELES
One can only imagine how somber that plane ride home for the Dodgers was last night after they were schooled by the Pirates in a three-game set in Pittsburgh. The Dodgers were in a position to win every game of that series but brutal relief pitching and some bad decisions by manager Don Mattingly sealed their fate every game. The Dodgers lost four of six games on this just completed road trip with the only two victories occurring against starters Aaron Harang and David Buchanan of the Phillies. Now it’s Brett Anderson’s turn in the rotation and he’s a big risk as the chalk. Oh, and he’s made of glass too. Anderson has not pitched more than 75 innings in a season since 2009. He’s missed time again this year and is already up to 124 innings. It’s going on seven years since he pitched that many innings in a season and he’s not that good anyway. Anderson put up some pretty mediocre skills in 2014. He has improved his command ratio and groundball rates so far in 2015 but we’re seeing all the signs of fatigue that include a 6% swing and miss rate (down from 9% before that) over his last five starts and a 3.87 xERA over that same span. Over his last 23 frames, Anderson has just 12 K’s. Anderson cannot be relied on to go deep into a game. He’s averaging just 5.2 innings per start and he’s running out of gas. That means the Dodgers pen is likely going to be called upon again or Mattingly will leave Anderson in there longer than he should because he’s now extremely reluctant to go to the next guy.
Washington is not in great form either. In this crucial stretch of the season in which they had a chance to do some damage at home against Arizona and Colorado, the Nats lost four of seven games. Not a disaster but not pretty either. Furthermore, as a pooch, these Nationals are a lot more appealing. Gio Gonzalez has just four losses this year in 20 starts. That means he almost always gives the Nats a chance to win. Gonzalez is inducing a much higher percentage of ground balls (57%) than ever before and his line-drive rate of just 14% over his last 10 starts is in the extremely elite category. Gonzalez is throwing far more sinkers than ever before too so those gains are all legit. Gonzalez also has 27 K’s over his last 27 frames and while we’re seeing a rise in his surface ERA, his underlying skills are stronger than ever. We also like that Washington catches the Dodgers at a very good time, as that sweep in Pittsburgh may not be easy to shake off.
Vegas Butcher
ANGELS / WHITE SOX UNDER 7
Shoemaker has been on a ridiculous run lately going 19 innings in his last 3 starts while allowing 10 hits, 0 runs, and striking out 27. He’ll now get to face a “cupcake” of a lineup in Chicago. At the same time Sale has ‘struggled’ giving up 14 runs in his last 2 starts. Of course when you see that he registered 16 K’s in only 10.1 innings of work in this time-frame, it’s a big surprise that he allowed that many runners to cross the plate. Stuff happens in baseball and on any given day even the ‘best’ pitches can get lit up, even though they’re throwing the ball well. Sale has received an extra day-off prior to tonight’s game, and I expect him to be dominant once again. My model has this game at 5.8 total runs, both bullpens are well rested, and I expect a strong outing by both starters.
Power Sports
Nationals vs Dodgers
Pick: Nationals +1.5
This is a tough spot for the Dodgers, even at home, as they were swept over the weekend in Pittsburgh and come off a crushing loss Sunday night where they blew a 5-1 lead. Washington, a desperate team, is a safe bet +1.5.
The Nats still trail the Mets by 1.5 games in the NL East. With New York hosting Colorado to start the week (they'll likely win that series), there's even more pressure on the Nats to keep pace. They just lost two of three over the weekend, at home, to the Rockies. They've won just three times in the L10 games and as a result a team that is typically one of the most heavily bet on a daily basis isn't receiving it's usual amount of action. This is actually a pretty rare opportunity to take them on the RL as they've only been a dog on the ML 32 times all season.
Coming off the Sunday Night game and having to play the next day almost always puts a team at a disadvantage as the opponent finished up much earlier in the day. Washington also has revenge here after dropping two of three, at home, to the Dodgers last month. Again, they'll have to deal with Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw in the final two games, so that puts even more pressure on them to take the opener, which they did in the last series. LA starter Anderson has been fairly solid, but so too has Gio Gonzalez for Washington as he has allowed 2 ER or less in seven consecutive starts.
Brian Hay
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -143
Philadelphia comes into this game with a 44-67 record, and they are 17-38 away from home. The Phillies send Aaron Harang to the hill tonight. Harang has a 5-12 record on the season, an earned run average of 4.11 and a 1.32 WHIP. The Phillies are 6-13 over his 116 innings pitched and he's also given up 120 hits over that time period. As a team, Philadelphia is batting .252, good for 15th in the league while putting together a .251 average away from home.
Arizona has a 53-56 overall record, including 27-28 at home. Rubby De La Rosa will toe the rubber tonight for the Diamondbacks. He has a record of 9-5 while sporting an earned run average of 4.56 on the year with a 1.28 WHIP. The Diamondbacks have a record of 13-9 over the 136.1 innings he's pitched during which he's given up 135 hits. As a team, they are batting .261, good for 6th in the league while putting together a .261 average at home. Ranked at 8th in the league in on-base percentage, the Diamondbacks sit at .322 and they hold a .401 team slugging percentage.
Dave Price
Cincinnati Reds +132
The San Diego Padres are really wishing they were sellers at the trade deadline now so they could have gotten something back from their better players. But now they appear to have really packed it in. They have lost six straight coming into this one, to Milwaukee and Philadelphia no less, which are two of the worst teams in the National League. David Holmberg has pitched well in two starts for the Reds this year, going 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.182 WHIP. He'll be opposed by Ian Kennedy, who is 6-10 with a 4.49 ERA and 1.269 WHIP in 20 starts. Somehow, Kennedy has been worse in pitcher-friendly San Diego, going 4-4 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.325 WHIP in 10 home starts. The Padres are 1-8 in their last 9 vs. NL Central foes.
Teddy Covers
Washington at Los Angeles
Recommendation: Over 7
Both the Nationals and Dodgers have broken out of offensive slumps in a big way over the course of the last week. Between them, the two teams have scored at least four runs in 13 of their last 14 ballgames. Obviously, if the loser reaches four tonight, we’ll cash our Over ticket with room to spare. And there’s little reason to expect a shutdown showing from either pitching staff this evening.
The Nationals have been an underachieving offensive team for most of the season, struggling with key injuries and numerous unexpected slumps. But Matt Williams finally has the key bats in the middle of the batting order healthy and in good form, with Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth combining for five hits including three dingers yesterday. This team was built to hit and they are showing signs of an offensive resurgence right now.
It’s a similar story for the Dodgers; a team with a potent lineup that is built to hit, despite their underachieving offensive results for most of the campaign. Sill, LA ranks among the Top Four team in the NL in runs scored this year. They cashed only one Under ticket in six games on their just concluded road trip and only two Unders in their last ten games overall. Five different Dodgers had two or more hits yesterday in Pittsburgh against the Pirates top notch pitching staff.
Gio Gonzalez has a road ERA more than two runs higher than his home ERA, and his control issues are clearly problematic against one of the most patient lineups in baseball. The Nationals bullpen behind Gonzalez isn’t fresh and just took a pair of losses in Colorado over the weekend. LA starter Brett Anderson is no shutdown starter either, and LA’s bullpen is every bit as spent as Washington’s bullpen after taking a pair of losses of their own over the weekend. Expect fireworks!
Rob Veno
Philadelphia at Arizona
Play: Over 8.5
With Arizona’s Rubby De La Rosa continuing to struggle versus LH bats this matchup is not a favorable one for him. De La Rosa added a sinker to his pitching repertoire this year in an attempt to help him handle lefties but he’s lacked command of it which has directly led to a left handed field day against him (.305 BA, .360 OBP, and .931 OPS). Tonight he faces a Phillies lineup that’s able to stack six legitimate lefties in the lineup now that Chase Utley is back swinging well so it figures to be a difficult order to navigate through tonight. Since the All-Star Break, Philadelphia is averaging just a shade under 5.5 runs per game and have to believe they’ll have similar production in this spot. They may need a bunch of runs tonight because their pitching looks a bit shaky at the start and at the end. Veteran starter Aaron Harang’s performances have been just miserable lately as indicated by his 7.45 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over his last 8 starts totaling 44.2 IP. Only 1 of those 8 starts has been a quality outing and he’s given up at least 4 earned runs without getting beyond 6 innings in any of those games. With closer Ken Giles unavailable tonight (relieved in all 3 games this weekend throwing a total of 49 pitches), Philadelphia is likely to have pitching issues all night long. Almost all of the significant “under” HP umpires called games this weekend which allows enough confidence to play this one blind. Expect a lot of runs at Chase Field tonight as this one gets over the required 8.5.
Bob Balfe
Dodgers -120
The Dodgers are dominate at home and after they came up empty in Pittsburgh this team will be focused. Just 24 hours ago they were on their way to a victory and gave up 9 runs in just one inning late in the game. This team has tremendous talent and will look to put that loss behind them tonight. Take the Dodgers.
Kevin Rogers
Orioles at Mariners
Play: Mariners
The Mariners haven't won back-to-back games at Safeco Field in eight tries, as Seattle hosts Baltimore on Monday. Wei-Yin Chen wasn't sharp in his last outing against Oakland, but the Orioles beat the A's in extra innings, overcoming four walks in five innings of work. In fact, Chen hasn't fared well of late, allowing at least 3 ER in four of his past five starts, but Baltimore has won each of his last three outings. Vidal Nuno counters for the Mariners, as Seattle beat Colorado in his first start of the season in spite of lasting less than four innings. The Orioles have lost six of the last seven road series openers, as I'll back Seattle to beat Baltimore.