Matt Fargo
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Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
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Even though the pitching matchup favors the Tigers, the Red Sox are in a solid spot as the value is definitely on their side. Boston has lost six straight games and while going against those types of streaks is dangerous sometimes, it is different here. All of those games were on the road while this one is the beginning of a short four-game homestand and time is all of a sudden running out on the Red Sox. After the sweep at the hands of the Yankees they are now 6.5 games back in the American League East but the good news is that they are tied with the Rangers for the lead in the Wild Card standings. Detroit has won four of its last five games but those were all at home where it is 15.5 games better than it is on the road. The same can be said for the Red Sox who are 11 games better at home than on the road. Brad Penny looks to turn his shaky season around but he has at least been decent at home. He has a 4.72 ERA in 11 home starts with Boston going 7-4 in those games. His recent form shows a 6.23 ERA over his last three starts with a 1.38 WHIP to go along with it. His opponent tonight is Edwin Jackson and he has a WHIP of 1.37 over that same span despite having an ERA that is about three runs less. Jackson has never fared well in Boston as he is 0-4 with a 7.14 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in five starts and one relief appearance at Fenway Park. The Tigers are 1-7 in their last eight road games against a right-handed starter. The Red Sox meanwhile are 5-0 in their last five games as a home underdog and they have taken 19 of the last 26 meetings played in Boston.
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3* Boston Red Sox
Dominic Fazzini
N.Y. Mets at ARIZONA
The Athletics came through Sunday for my sixth win in my last nine complimentary selections. Now I'm turning to a battle of bad teams to gain another victory today!
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The Mets lost three out of four games against the Diamondbacks a week ago, and have dropped four of the last five meetings between the clubs.
Doug Davis (6-10, 3.67 ERA) takes the mound for Arizona today, and the left-hander is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts. He allowed two runs and four hits in seven innings Wednesday in a 4-3 victory at Pittsburgh.
Davis is 2-1 with a 4.83 ERA in seven starts vs. New York. He allowed two runs in six innings on July 31 in his last outing against the Mets, but didn't receive a decision.
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The Mets will send new father Mike Pelfrey (8-7, 4.75) to the mound today. The right-hander will be making his first start after seven days' rest due to the birth of his first child.
Pelfrey is 0-3 with a 4.63 ERA in four career starts against Arizona, and allowed three runs and five hits in five innings in a 5-2 loss to the Diamondbacks on Aug. 2.
Davis is just 3-6 in 12 home starts this year, but his ERA is 3.30 in those outings. Pelfrey is a misleading 4-4 in nine road starts, as his ERA is 5.75.
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The Mets have been struggling for about two months, and have lost eight of their last 11 games. With Davis on the mound for Arizona, I don't see New York stopping its slide today. Take the Diamondbacks on the run line.
2♦ ARIZONA -1 1/2
Sports Gambling Hotline
Detroit at BOSTON +105
Sunday comp play winner on the Yankees. Now 15-3-1 the last 19 days with our comp plays.
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Boston comes back home with plenty of question marks, as the Red Sox just lost 4 straight in the Bronx, and have now lost 6 straight overall as they try to regroup for tonight's game against division-leading Detroit.
The good news is the Sox have won 8 of the last 10 meetings against the Tigers, including ALL 3 this season.
Boston is also 35-17 at Fenway Park this year, while the Tigers come to Beantown with a 23-33 road ledger, and the Tigers have also dropped 9 of their last 11 on the road overall.
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Throw in the fact Detroit is just 7-19 their last 26 played at Fenway, and any pitching advantage the Tigers have with Edwin Jackson opposing Brad Penny is pretty much washed away.
We will back the BoSox to end their 6 game slide with a much-needed victory over the Tigers.
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Play on Boston.
5♦ BOSTON
Bobby Maxwell
Tampa Bay at L.A. ANGELS +105
I'm back and tonight's FREE winner comes from Southern California as I love the Angels in this matchup with the Rays.
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We're loving the Angels in this one as Tampa just got spanked in Seattle on Sunday and has to travel down the coast to Los Angeles to face an Angels' squad that isn't happy with itself for losing two of three at home to the Rangers.
Los Angeles has dominated Tampa is recent meetings, going 50-24 in the last 74 clashes overall and 26-5 in Anaheim. The Angels own this team when they meet out west.
On the hill tonight for the Angels is Sean O'Sullivan (3-1, 4.24 ERA). With O'Sullivan making the start, the Angels are 5-1 in his six starts this season, including impressive home wins over the Orioles and Rockies.
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The Rays have Matt Garza (7-8, 3.63) on the mound. They have lost 11 of his last 16 road starts and they are just 1-4 when he goes against A.L. West teams and when he's on the road against winning teams. He lost his only start against the Angels last season, allowing four runs on seven hits in 6 2 innings of a 5-4 defeat.
Los Angeles has been the hottest team in baseball the last few months, going 36-16 overall, and an impressive 65-33 at home against winning teams. Play the Angels to deliver again tonight.
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4♦ L.A. ANGELS
Karl Garrett
White Sox -120 at SEATTLE
G-Man on a 20-11 comp play run my last 31.
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Late night tonight in the Emerald City I like the White Sox to handle the Mariners.
Chicago has been struggling, but I believe they are the better team on the field tonight, and starter Gavin Floyd has consistently given his team a chance to win.
Floyd has allowed 1 earned run or less in 7 of his last 10 starts, and the righty is 3-0 his last 5 starts, and 5-1 his last 7 starting assignments.
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Seattle counters with newly-aquired Lucas French who did win his Seattle debut, but is just 1-2 his last 3 starts with an ERA near 7.
The Sox have won 2 of the 3 season series meetings this year, and they are 7-2 the last 9 times the teams have met.
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G-Man will back the White Sox in the series opener tonight.
4♦ WHITE SOX
Jeff Benton
I scored my second straight free-play winner Sunday as the A’s easily handled the Royals. I’ll make it three in a row Monday by taking the Giants as a slight home underdog against the Dodgers.
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Obviously, this is an enormous series for San Francisco, which enters tonight tied with Colorado for second-place in the N.L West (and the wild-card lead), 5½ games behind the Dodgers. The good news for the Giants is they’re catching their hated rivals at the right time. Los Angeles, which has been cruising along with the best record in baseball virtually the entire season, is really struggling. It lost three of four to the Braves over the weekend at home, and if not for a miracle three-run, walk-off homer by Andre Ethier on Friday, the Dodgers would’ve gotten swept.
As it is, the Dodgers have lost three in a row for the second time in two weeks – and just the second time this season – and they’ve lost 11 of 17 games dating to June 24. That 6-11 funk has all come against quality, playoff-caliber opponents (St. Louis, Atlanta and Milwaukee). L.A.’s biggest problem lately has been an offense that has gone from explosive to inconsistent. The Dodgers have a solid team average, but they’ve scored three runs or fewer in eight of their last 17 contests.
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Meanwhile, even though the Giants lost two of three at home to the lowly Reds over the weekend, they’re still on a 9-4 roll since July 27, and they’re still 17-6 in their last 23 home games. Not only that, but San Francisco’s 38-18 home mark is the best in the National League and the second best in baseball. Additionally, the Giants took two of three from Los Angeles both at the end of April (at home) and the beginning of May (in L.A.), and they’re 6-2 in the last eight meetings by the Bay.
Finally, Giants lefty starter Jonathan Sanchez is coming off back-to-back wins (8-1 over Houston on the road, 7-2 over Philadelphia at home), and if you include his no-hitter against the Padres on July 10, he’s allowed just two runs and three hits with 18 strikeouts in his last two home starts covering 14 2/3 innings. Throw in the fact that the Dodgers are just 1-3 when starter Hiroki Kuroda faces the Giants (0-2 in San Francisco), and I’ll ride the small home underdog that’s playing better baseball.
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4♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Craig Davis
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Tonight's free play is with Detroit over Boston as I expect the Red Sox to continue their offensive hangover against another solid pitcher in Edwin Jackson tonight. I've backed the Yankees (or against Boston, if you will) as a free play in each of the last three nights and I'm going to continue to play against Boston until they do something to change my mind. Detroit is obviously a better team at home than they are on the road, but that doesn't mean they can't score runs away from Comerica. Boston sends Brad Penny to the hilll having pitched better of late... but he's still Brad Penny. Detroit has enough quality hitters to be able to get to Penny early, forcing the Sox back to a very tired bullpen. Boston emptied its pen twice in the Yankees series and could use a solid 7- or 8-inning outing from their starter. I'm not sure, however, if Penny is the guy to do that. This play is as much about backing Detroit as it is going against Boston. Take the Tigers as your fee play of the day.
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3♦ DETROIT
Tom Freese
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Los Angeles at San Francisco
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San Francisco is 20-7 their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and they are 35-16 their last 51 home games. The Giants are 4-0 off a loss and they are 38-18 their last 56 games vs. righty starters. Los Angeles is 18-37 their last 55 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of 60% or higher and they are 1-4 their last 5 games vs. lefty starters. The Dodgers are 1-5 on the road with Hiroki Kuroda vs. teams with a winning record. PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO +
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles
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The Athletics are going with left-hander Gio Gonzalez and he has pitched well in his last three starts allowing four runs in nearly 19 innings of work. The Orioles are scoring 4.1 runs per game against left-handed starters. Baltimore has gone UNDER the total in 14 of 19 games as a home favorite. Oakland is averaging 4.3 runs per game on the road. Go with the UNDER.
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Play on: UNDER
John Ryan
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Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Toronto as they face the New York Yankees set to start at 7:05 EST. Every season sees the bitter rivals take on each other and ply with great effort and emotion. The post Sox/Yanks games have not been their best. Remember, though that the sole reason we are making this play is based on the AiS grading. The cast of systems, angles, and game analysis serve only to reinforce the grading. Sergio Mitre has not pitched well and sports an 8.76 ERA allowing 24 hits in just 12.3 innings and a 2.271 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Yankee skipper Girardi is just 39-40 (-23.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 10 or higher as the manager of the Yankees.
Nelly
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Chicago White Sox - over Seattle Mariners
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The White Sox are 20-15 against left-handed starters this season and Chicago can shake off some recent road woes in Seattle tonight. The Mariners are coming off a big win Sunday afternoon but the Mariners are just 5-5 in the past ten games with a 5.32 team ERA in that span as the pitching has faltered a bit. Lucas French struggled in his first start for the M's despite picking up the win. He allowed nine hits and four runs in just five innings. It was the fourth consecutive start that French failed to make it through the sixth inning and in his last two starts he has allowed as many runs as innings pitched. In road games Chicago is batting .302 against left-handed pitching and Chicago has averaged over six runs scored per game in the last ten contests. Gavin Floyd has made three consecutive brilliant starts for the Sox, allowing just three earned runs and 16 hits in over 22 innings of work. The Sox are 13-9 behind Floyd this season and Chicago's bullpen owns a 2.55 ERA over the last ten games. Seattle is just 4-9 in the last 13 games as underdogs and this is a huge game for Chicago to get a big road win.
Alex Smart
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Detroit at Boston
Play: Detroit
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The Boston Red Sox are in a big time let down situation after getting smacked around by their long time rivals the NY Yankees on the weekend. The BoSox lost all 4 games of a 4 game series in NY for their 6th straight overall loss, and now have the unfortunate honor of going against a big time Motown Tigers fire baller Edwin Jackson (8-5,2.62 ERA). To make matters worse the men from Fenway have to respond with the struggling Brad Penny (7-6, 5.20 ERA), who has allowed 5 runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts. Considering the pitching matchup and the Red Sox current form the Tigers look like good bets tonight, even here in enemy territory. Final notes & Key Trends: Boston has lost 9 straight vs a team with an above.500 record. Red Sox are 1-6 in Pennys last 7 starts.
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Play the Detroit Tigers
Drew Gordon
Tampa Bay -120 at LA ANGELS
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Now on a 38-27 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Athletics over the Royals 6-3 Sunday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Tampa Bay/LA Angels match up...
Love this spot for the road-weary Rays, as they look to rebound from a costly series loss at Seattle in their one. Critics of this play will argue that winning at Angel Stadium has never been easy for Tampa, but based on tonight's pitching match up, I'd say the Rays are in the drivers seat.
Matt Garza has been on fire over his L3 starts, going 1-1 with a solid 2.74 ERA over that span. Opposing batters are hitting just .195 against him over that 3-game stretch, and based on his last roadie, he should be just fine in this one. Garza dominated the Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre, allowing 2 runs in a complete game win July 24th, and all signs point to another strong road effort here tonight.
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Opposing Garza is the Angels Sean O'Sullivan, who's been up-and-down this season. True, the Angels are 5-1 in his 6 starts, but let's not get carried away. He's been the beneficiary of some solid run support, and you better believe he won't be nearly as lucky opposed by Garza in this contest. Also, he's pitched twice at Angel Stadium this season, and he's 0-2 with an ugly 5.91 ERA.
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Finally, if there's one edge the Rays enjoy, its in the bullpen, where they've posted a 3.30 ERA over their L3 games. That's leaps and bounds better than the Halos, who's bullpen has posted a laughable 7.58 ERA over the same 3-game span. In the end, you can rest-assured we're going to get a quality outing from Garza, while O'Sullivan has been erratic at home, and the fact the Rays average 5.5 runs per game against rigthies doens't hurt either! Rays roll!
Take Tampa Bay behind Garza over the LA Angels and O'Sullivan in this MLB match up.
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2♦ TAMPA BAY
JR TIPS
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Tigers at Red Sox
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The Boston Red Sox retuen home after being swept by their biggest rivals and look to avoid a seventh straight loss tonight when they face the Detroit Tigers(59-51).Boston (62-48) outscored Detroit 21-9 in sweeping a three-game road set from June 2nd-4th and has won four in a row and seven of eight between the clubs althoughThough the Tigers have won seven of their last 11, they've dropped four of five at Fenway Park.Detroit's starting pitcher Edwin Jackson (8-5, 2.62) has been steady this year but has a 5.56 ERA in eight starts against Boston, including an 0-4 record and 7.67 ERA in five at Fenway. The Red Sox will have to revive their offense with starter Brad Penny (7-6, 5.20) on the mound who looks to avoid losing a third straight start after allowing five runs, three homers in six innings of a 6-4 loss at Tampa Bay on Wednesday. The right-hander has a 9.82 ERA in his last two starts and is 0-2 with a 7.59 ERA against the Tigers. Detroit's Placido Polanco and Miguel Cabrera are each batting .364 against Penny.The Boston Red Sox will get their offense back at home tonight but with Penny on the mound, they will need at least 8 runs against this Detroit offense that has been hot as of late and always puts up runs against Penny.
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TAKE OVER 9 1/2
THE SPREAD
Oakland A’s at Baltimore Orioles
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games
Pick: Baltimore
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Toronto is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
NY Yankees are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home
Pick: Toronto
Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox
Detroit is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Boston
Boston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games
Pick: Detroit