Mr Vegas
Marlins vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers
The Brewers completed their three game sweep of the Phillies with a 6-1 win. The Brewers have won six of their last 11 games and averaged 5.5 runs per game. Matt Garza starts tonight for the Brewers. Garza has been very good, not allowing more than three runs in any of his last five starts. Moreover, he's allowed just three runs in his last 14 innings of work. The Marlins salvaged the last game of their three game series with the Cardinals. They are 4-7 in their last 11 games. Justin Nicolino will toe the rubber tonight. Nicolino has only three starts for the Marlins. His debut was fantastic, allowing no runs over seven innings to the Reds. However, in his next two starts he's allowed nine runs in 9 2/3 innings. Nicolino also doesn't have overpowering stuff, evidenced by his four total strikeouts and four walks. The Brewers have a big edge here with Garza on the hill. Plus, the Brewers are playing better and have home field tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pllay: Pittsburgh Pirates -180
The Pirates are back home off a 3 game sweep in NY. Tonight they fit a powerful database system that plays on certain home teams off a road dog win vs a team like Arizona off a road favored loss. These teams have an average win by 3.7 runs. The Pirates are 18-3 as a home favorite in this range and have won 9 of 13. They have G. Cole on the hill and have won 9 of his 11 home starts as he has a 2.2.89 home era and is 2-0 with a 1.98 era vs Arizona. The D-backs have Hellickson going and he has a 6.09 road era and a 7.71 era vs the Pirates. Look for Pittsburgh to take the opener.
Jim Feist
Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres
Pick: San Diego Padres
The Braves took two of three in their series with the Diamondbacks. Sunday's win was only the team's second in their last six games. The pitching has been sporadic at best, allowing six runs or more in five of their last 11 games. Don't look for that to improve tonight with Williams Perez on the hill. Perez had a good start last time out, allowing just two runs over eight innings to the Rays. However, prior to that he allowed 14 runs in just 10 1/3 innings. His control is also not good, as he's walked 12 batters in his last four starts, compared to just eight KO's. The Padres have won four of their last six, though they did drop the final game of a three game series with the Rockies on Sunday. The Padres got shut out on Sunday, but they had scored 30 runs over their previous four games. Colin Rea makes only his second start of the season tonight for the Padres. Rea went just five innings in his first start against Cincinnati. Petco park is a decent pitcher's park, which will help Rea tonight. The Padres have finally been hitting the ball well, something they have been looking for all season.
Art Aronson
Twins vs. Yankees
Play: Over 8½
The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Gibson (8-9, 3.75 ERA) who looked decent after a horrendous outing by going six innings and allowing two runs on seven hits vs. the Rangers on Tuesday. Gibson has been hit-or-miss for a while though, previous to his last outing he'd give up eight runs in a brutal start and had allowed a combined 21 earned runs over his past four trips to the mound. Not surprisingly, Gibson is just 3-5 with a 4.57 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with CC Sabathia (4-9, 5.23 ERA) who is also coming off a decent outing, giving up two runs off nine hits over six innings in a 2-1 loss to the Tribe on Wednesday. But just like Gibson, Sabathia's performance has been all over the map this season, he's been trading good starts with bad for a while now, his ERA has been stuck on the 5.00 ERA mark for each of the last three months and unfortunately a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he's a horrible 2-3 with a ballooned 6.13 ERA in The Big Apple. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and with each of these hurlers coming into this one struggling, there's no question that the OVER becomes a very legitimate investment opportunity.
Marc Lawrence
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Seattle Mariners +135
Edges - Mariners: Taijuan Walker 11-6 team starts at night, and 7-4 team starts as a dog this season. Rangers: Chris Hamels 1-2 career team starts versus Seattle, and 2-5 last seven overall away team starts. With Hamels winless in his two starts with Texas, and Walker in sharp KW form with 22 strikeouts and 3 walks his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on Seattle.
Stephen Nover
Marlins vs. Brewers
Play: Over 8
Not only are the two starting pitchers - Justin Nicolino and Matt Garza - not impressive, but both team's bullpens have issues.
Let's start with the Marlins. Rookie Nicolino is being force fed into the majors right now because Jose Fernandez is back on the DL. Nicolino isn't ready for prime time. His ERA is close to 5.00.
Miami's bullpen is taxed after Sunday's starter, David Phelps, had to be removed during the third inning after undergoing elbow discomfort.
The Marlins continue to miss Giancarlo Stanton, but their other star offensive player, Dee Gordon, is back on track batting .407 in his last six games. The Marlins have gone over the total in 12 of their last 15 games.
The Marlins draw Garza, who is having a terrible season with a 6-12 record and 4.82 ERA. The right-hander has a 4.62 lifetime ERA in seven starts versus Miami. The Marlins have gone over 11 of the last 12 times they've faced a righty starter.
The Brewers aren't likely to have closer Francisco Rodriguez, who is a perfect 29-for-29 in saves with a 1.90 ERA. Rodriguez has pitched the past four days. Milwaukee doesn't have any other dependable relievers.
Note, too, this trend that the over has cashed the past eight times Garza has pitched at home against a foe with a losing mark.
DAVE COKIN
INDIANS @ RED SOX
PLAY: INDIANS -129
Danny Salazar spent a couple of seasons whetting the appetite of those who believed he had a legit chance to break through as an upper tier starting pitcher. That patience has been rewarded this year. The Indians are going to fall short of most pre-season expectations, but that’s sure not on Salazar.The Salazar numbers speak for themselves. Great BB/K ratio, strong peripherals right across the board, and an analytics display that suggests the best is yet to come.
Tonight, Salazar draws a suddenly tough assignment as the Boston bats have awakened. The Red Sox blasted the ball all over Fenway Park as they took two of three from Seattle. The Red Sox are a monster flop this year, but that lineup still has some guys who can hit, and this might not be a stroll in the park for Salazar.
As for the Boston pitching, that’s still another story. It’s simply terrible. The bullpen has been subpar all season, but has gotten even worse with the loss of closer Koji Uehara for the rest of the year. That definitely enters into the conversation when looking at tonight’s game.
Matt Barnes is back up from Pawtucket to start this game for Boston. Barnes opened the season starting games for the Pawsox, but topped out at five innings. Then he was called up to the parent club and pitched out of the pen, most of the time in mostly low leverage situations. Barnes then went back to Pawtucket and pitched out of the pen, got called back up again for a handful of games, and then returned to Pawtucket yet again. He continued to pitch in relief until earlier this month, when Barnes again became a starter, and his last two appearances were in that role.
The good news for Barnes is that it’s a really short drive between Boston and Pawtucket. The bad news is this kid might not know at this point whether he’s coming or going, nor what he’s supposed to do when he gets there.
The bottom line is that Barnes isn’t especially stretched out, and I’d be shocked if he can go deeper than five innings tonight. That’s assuming he’s doing well, so best case scenario it’s the Boston bullpen for nearly half the game. That cannot be considered as a good thing from the Red Sox perspective.
I make this a big edge on the mound for the Indians with Salazar vs. Barnes and company. It’s also worth noting that for whatever reason, the Tribe has been better on the road than at home, so no issues taking them whole wearing the away uniforms. One concern is the availability of Michael Brantley. He missed the weekend series at Minnesota and had to receive a cortisone shot for his ailing shoulder. The hope is that Brantley will be ready tonight, but check for lineup info as far as that goes. Regardless, I see the Indians having a good shot at collecting a win tonight and I’ll be looking to back Salazar and the Cleveland side in this price range.
Jesse Schule
San Francisco vs. St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis
Carlos Martinez did not have his best stuff on Sunday, and the Cardinals suffered a rare home loss in the series finale versus Miami. They will try to bounce back tonight at home in Game 1 of a new series versus the San Francisco Giants. I like their chances with Michael Wacha on the mound.
Wacha (14-4, 2.93 ERA) is coming off three straight wins, and he's only given up two runs over 20 innings in those games. He's 6-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 10 starts at home in St. Louis this season. The Cardinals are 21-6 in Wacha's last 27 starts overall.
The Giants hand the ball to rookie Chris Heston, who is coming off a home loss to Houston. Heston (11-7, 3.38 ERA) allowed one run on three hits and four walks over 6 1/3 innings losing 2-0 to the Astros his last time out. Prior to that he was rocked for five runs on five hits and two walks over just four innings in a loss to the Cubs at Wrigley. His ERA at home is almost half of what it is on the road, and this looks like a tough spot for the Rookie.
The Cardinals are 59-21 in their last 80 home games.
Matt Fargo
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Miami Marlins +139
Miami won a rare road game yesterday as it defeated the Cardinals as more than a 2-1 underdog and it looks to carry that into its series opener on Monday in Milwaukee. The offense broke through yesterday while the pitching was pretty solid throughout the series against St. Louis. Milwaukee meanwhile is coming off a series sweep against the Phillies to make it four straight wins at home but Miller Park has not been very kind this season as the Brewers are still nine games under .500 at home overall and heading into tonight it has won just one of its last seven series openers. The Marlins turn to Justin Nicolino who is making his fourth start this season and second since coming back into the rotation. He pitched decent against Boston in his last game and in his only road start this year, he tossed seven shutout innings against the Reds. Milwaukee counters with Matt Garza who has turned his season around with three straight quality starts and since the All Star break, he has posted a 2.56 ERA. However, the Brewers are 6-13 in his last 19 starts following a quality outing in his last start.
Larry Ness
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Texas Rangers
I’m NOT the biggest Cole Hamels fan and jumped at the opportunity to play against him in his first start as a Ranger, back on August 1 (cashed a nice underdog play on the Giants, in a 9-7 win, as Hamels allowed five ERs on eight hits over 7.2 innings). The Rangers acquired Hamels in an EIGHT-player trade with Philadelphia on July 31 but they've lost both of his starts as the left-hander has allowed nine ERs on 16 hits (including five HRs!) in just 13.2 innings (that’s a 5.93 ERA). Hamels was scheduled to pitch last Thursday against Minnesota but was scratched because of a groin issue he suffered against Seattle on August 7. He threw a regular bullpen session Friday and told MLB's official website, "It was nice to get on the mound again," "To have something like this with a new team, it's not what you want. You want to come in with guns blazing and throwing shutouts like a couple of guys are doing on their new team. I'd like to be doing that, but it is better to be smart."
I’m going to risk a small play here on Hamels, mostly on “feel.” He takes the mound for a Texas team tonight against the Mariners, which has won seven straight home games. The Rangers are looking to win EIGHT in a row at home for the first time in more than four years. Texas is coming off a 92-loss season in 2014 but has won 12 of its last 17 overall and trails Baltimore and Los Angeles in a tight race for the second wild card (Orioles currently lead the Angels by a half-game with the Rangers just ONE game back). Adrian Beltre and Ryan Strausborger homered in a 5-3 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday, putting the Rangers on the brink of winning five straight for the first time since a season-best seven-game run May 20-26.
While Texas won just 70 game last season, Seattle won 87, falling just ONE game short of a playoff berth. However, it’s been a HUGELY disappointing season for the Mariners in 2015, as they woke up this morning 55-63, SIX games out of the final wild card spot with SIX teams in front of them. Seattle Taijuan Walker (8-7, 4.60 ERA) has been a streaky pitcher in 2015 but comes in on fairly good run, as he’s 1-0 with a 2.42 ERA in his last three starts (team is 2-1)and has won SIX of his last seven decisions dating back to June 10. However, he still owns a 5.03 road ERA in 13 starts and faces a Texas team which has outscored its opponents 44-20 in winning SEVEN straight at home.
Again, I “feel” a good outing for Hamels coming in this one.
Don Best Consensus
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals
STL are 59-21 in their last 80 home games. San Fran starter Heston's road ERA (4.45) is almost two full runs higher than at home (2.48). He is just 1-2 his L3 starts with a 5.40ERA. STL starter Wacha is on a roll his L3 starts; going 3-0 with a 0.90ERA.
Will Rogers
Minnesota vs. New York
Pick: Minnesota +1.5
The Minnesota Twins are coming off back to back wins over Cleveland, and they begin a new series in the Bronx on Monday night. The Yankees are clinging to a half game lead in the AL East after taking 2-of-3 in Toronto. The Bronx Bombers might need all the offense they can muster tonight with a struggling reliever making a spot start in Game 1 versus the Twins.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Yankees will send 24 year old Bryan Mitchell to the mound, replacing scheduled starter C.C. Sabathia. This will me the kid's second start of the year, and his first was no picnic, giving up four runs on seven hits over just four innings in an 8-2 loss to the White Sox. The Twins counter with Kyle Gibson, who is 0-3 with a 7.39 ERA since the All Star break.
2. Trevor Plouffe - The Twins third baseman was 2-for-4 with a home run last night, and he's hitting .308 with a home run and a pair of RBI's in four games versus the Yankees this season.
3. X-Factor - The bullpen has been a strength for the Yankees this season, but cracks have started to appear lately. Southpaw Andrew Miller has surrendered three runs on six hits in his last three appearances.
Big Al
Cleveland vs. Boston
Pick: Cleveland
First, kudos to Boston, after it piled up 45 runs vs. the Mariners' troika of Montgomery, Hernandez and Nuno over the weekend. The Red Sox won two of those games, but fell 10-8 yesterday. Now, Boston will look to keep its offensive roll going tonight vs. the Indians. Unfortunately, they'll be matched up against one of baseball's best in Danny Salazar. Salazar has a 3.26 ERA on the season, and has won 10 against six losses, in 21 starts. Even better: he owns a 2-0 record and 0.84 WHIP in his last three outings. With Boston turning to Matt Barnes for his first major league start (after generating a poor 5.64 ERA in 21 relief appearances this year), it's a deserved underdog this evening. Finally, the Tribe has a super, long-term record of 213-124 (+37 games on the money line) as a mid-priced road favorite of -125 to -175.
Power Sports
Arizona vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Arizona +1.5
While Pittsburgh is "flying high" off its sweep of the Mets and will be a popular bet tonight w/ ace Cole on the mound, I expect Arizona to put up a fight as each of their last three losses have been by one run. An "outright" win is a possibility.
The Pirates have lost just twice in the L10 games, both times to St. Louis. However, they've had a number of close calls mixed in there, such as three one-run victories plus a two-run victory that went into extra innings. Cole, as good as he is, has allowed at least three runs in three consecutive starts while posting a 4.41 ERA & 1.470 WHIP and hasn't gone more than six innings in any of them. The offense also hasn't been scoring much for him, which is a concern.
Arizona was swept, at home, by Pittsburgh the only previous time they met this season. That puts the revenge angle into play. The D'backs send Jeremy Hellickson to the mound Monday & he's coming off one of his better outings of the year, one where he allowed only an unearned run while striking out six in a complete game effort against the Phillies. He's now made seven consecutive quality starts at home dating back to May.