SPORTS WAGERS
San Francisco +140 over ST. LOUIS
Chris Heston is 6-2 on the road and while his road ERA is shaky, he’s been able to get outstanding run support when pitching away from AT&T Park. Heston posted a 64% groundball rate in 34 innings during July, the highest groundball rate of any starter in the NL that month. It's a mark that helped to make him one of the most valuable starters in MLB during July (1.57 ERA, 0.96 WHIP). He’s also coming off an outstanding start against the Astros in which he allowed just three hits in 6.1 innings. We’re not going to suggest that Heston is the superior pitcher here but he almost always gives the Giants a chance to win and that’s all we ask when backing a dog. Furthermore, the Cardinals not so great offense is likely without Randal Grichuk (listed as doubtful), who was lifted yesterday because of elbow tightness. Matt Holiday and John Jay are still on the DL.
The Giants are precisely the type of dog you want to back when they’re starting to heat up. Heading into the stretch run, the Giants just swept the Nationals in a four-game set while scoring 28 runs. The Nats started Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez and Joe Ross and couldn’t win a single game. The Giants will take that momentum building series to face Michael Wacha and the Cardinals. Wacha is coming off a highly anticipated ESPN televised game against Gerrit Cole and the Pirates. The Cardinals prevailed in that game 4-2 but it was not a breeze for Wacha at all. He allowed nine hits in six innings and also walked three batters. He was pitching out of trouble the entire evening but a lucky 91% strand rate saved him. This is a pitcher that runs hot and cold. In a stretch in July he allowed 13 runs over three straight starts covering 18 innings. He had a similar run in early June too. Wacha has good skills some of the time and not so good at other times. That last game against the Pirates had to take a huge toll on him both physically and mentally. He now becomes a significant risk in this price range against the Giants.
Twins (5 innings) +135 over N.Y.Y
After six games against the Blue Jays in the past nine days, the Yanks may be in a difficult spot here. They took two of three from the Jays in Toronto and had it not been for ball lost in the sun by Carlos Beltran yesterday, the Yanks would have swept the series. They now return home to face the Twins and they may need a day to recover from playing this past weekend in extreme heat in two matinee games. Lefthander Bryan Mitchell gets this start and while this youngster has been highly touted in the past, scouts say he is better suited for the bullpen. Mitchell has made nine appearances this season but eight of those were out of the pen. In his lone start against the light hitting South Side in Chicago, Mitchell was tagged for seven hits and four runs in four innings. Incidentally, against southpaws, Chicago is even weaker with a .237 BA and .630 OPS. Mitchell relies heavily on his fastball. His secondary offerings are decent but he can’t throw strikes consistently and that’s been a huge problem for him. Mitchell has just a 54% first-pitch strike rate overall and just a 49% first-pitch strike rate over his last three appearances. He also has a troubling 30% line-drive rate this year. The Yankees need someone to start and give them innings and Mitchell is their best option right now but he’s far too risky in this price range when he has proven nothing as a starter at this level.
Kyle Gibson is coming along slowly but surely. Gibson’s monthly swing and miss trend is extremely noteworthy: April 7%, May 9%, June 10%, July 12% and August 13%. That shows he's adjusting well to MLB hitting so his recent K’s surge is completely legit. Gibson has 25 K’s in his past 28 innings. Gibson relies heavily on a two-seam fastball that has plenty of sink. He throws the two-seamer over 40% of the time, and it generates a 60% groundball rate. His xERA of 3.47 since June 1 reveal that his skills have improved despite a mediocre ERA. Gibson has recovered nicely from a disastrous April, which did major damage to his year-to-date numbers. His impressive arsenal includes the previously mentioned two-seamer, as well as a slider and changeup that each generate a 17%+ swing and miss rate. This growth is hidden beneath a shaky 2H ERA, which makes Gibson a fine stock that we’re able to snag at a discount. The Yanks bullpen is so damn tough that we’ll attempt to eliminate it, thus the five inning wager.
Mike Lundin
Cleveland Indians vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Cleveland Indians -132
The Cleveland Indians are off back-to-back losses to the Twins but have won five of their last eight. I like them in the opener of a three-game set against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park tonight as they should have a clear advantage on the mound. Danny Salazar will take the ball for the Tribe coming off six straight quality starts. He's allowed just two earned runs on eight hits through 21 1/3 frams in his last three turns and has a respectable 3.35 ERA in 12 road starts this season. The Red Sox will turn to 25 year old Matt Barnes who'll make his first start ever in the big leagues. He's compiled a 5.64 ERA in 22 1/3 innings as a reliever on the season, allowing 12 runs, 10 earned, with four homers through 6 2/3 innings home at Fenway.
Notes
Cleveland is 6-1 in Salazar's last seven starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.
Boston is 2-6 in its last eight games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Cleveland has won five of the last seven meetings.
Alex Smart
Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Over 8½
In two starts since being traded to Texas, Hamels has given up nine runs on 16 hits , which includes a whopping five homers in a sloppy 13 2/3 innings of work. There is no doubt in my mind , Hamels is a solid pitcher, but at the moment he is struggling greatly and working through a groin injury, and could easily get lit up by a Seattle team that just scored 21 runs in a 3 game weekend set. Meanwhile, Seattle's Taijuan Walker (8-7, 4.60) owns a bloated 5.03 ERA with his only saving grace is run support, as is evident by getting 44 runs (6.3 rpg) from his offense in his L/7 starts. The linesmakers have compensated for my above observations, and Im just going with the flow and expecting enough offensive fireworks to see a combined 9 runs go on board.
Over is 6-1-1 in Walkers last 8 starts overall.Over is 6-0 in Mariners last 6 road games.Over is 12-5-1 in Rangers last 18 vs. American League West.
Jack Jones
Oakland A's +101
The Oakland A's are 0-6 on their current 7-game road trip. They want to get out of this trip with at least one victory, and they have a chance to do that tonight behind arguably the best starter in the American League in Sonny Gray.
Rarely will you get the opportunity to back Gray as an underdog. Considering he's 12-4 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.959 WHIP in 23 starts this season, I'll jump at this chance. Gray is 8-1 with a 1.64 ERA in 12 road starts, and 2-0 with a 0.72 ERA in his last three starts as well.
Chris Tillman hasn't pitched that well this season for the Orioles. The right-hander is 8-7 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.362 WHIP over 21 starts. He had turned it around recently, but then he gave up five earned runs and eight hits over 2 1/3 innings of a 5-6 loss to the Mariners last time out on August 11.
The A's are 7-0 in Gray's last seven road starts. Oakland is 6-0 in Gray's last six road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 1-7 in their last eight during game 4 of a series. Baltimore is 0-5 in its last five after allowing 2 runs or less in its previous game.
Jimmy Boyd
Seattle Mariners +119
Seattle is showing great value here as a road dog against the Rangers, as they send out the red-hot Taijuan Walker, who owns a 2.42 ERA and 0.717 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Walker has been up and down all season, but when he's on he's been really good. Adding to the value here is the fact that Walker didn't allow an earned run in 7 innings of work at Texas in his only start against the Rangers this season.
Texas will counter with newly acquired Cole Hamels, who is coming off back-to-back poor starts, in which he's allowed 9 runs on 16 hits (5 HRs) in 13 2/3 innings of work. Hamels also has a 4.67 ERA and 1.558 WHIP in 3 career starts against the Mariners.
Rangers are just 20-40 over their last 60 division home games, while the Mariners are 32-19 in their last 51 after losing 2 of their last 3, 4-0 in Walker's last 4 starts as a road underdog and 8-1 in his last 9 following a quality start last time out.
Sleepyj
Marlins / Brewers Over 8
The Brew Crew has won three games in a row now..They are swinging the bats much better and facing a guy like Nicolino should be fun for them tonight....His last two starts have been bad and giving up 9ER in just 9 innings of work tells me this kid doesn't have it together yet..He has given up a total of 15 hits in the last two games as well..These teams have nothing to lose at all..It's all house money at this point of the season..These teams are trying to win games anyway possible right now...Brewers have a good lineup and i expect them to get some runs tonight..Issue for the Brewers is Garza goes tonight....Marlins have been hitting well as of late too...Garza has a 4.82 ERA and he has looked better in his last few games..He has given up only 9 hits in 20 innings of work..That's very good for a guy like Garza who can get bopped at any moment..I expect that tonight..He has been lucky to get out of a few jams or he would have given up more runs in this stretch of games..His walks are up and strikeouts are about the same..Expect 3 or 4 from him tonight..He always seems to give up the long ball as well....His last 10 games he has given up 10 HR's...I expect both teams to come out swinging tonight..This one gets over the 8.
Joe Gavazzi
Houston Astros -1½ +125
Rays are one of the streakiest teams in MLB, going 0-6, 14-4, 12-21, 7-2, 0-3 following the weekend sweep at Texas by combined scores of 22-10. Ramirez pitched 7 strong innings for the Rays, allowing no runs on 5 hits in a 2-0 win vs. Atlanta. But, that was against a flailing Braves team, who has the worst combination of batting, pitching and relief OPS numbers in MLB. Prior to that, in his previous 3 starts, Ramirez had a 5.12 ERA. Must love playing the Astros on this field, where they are 40-19 for the season, including 16-3 recently in which they have averaged 5.5 RPG with a .282 BA and 31 HRs. Kazmir has continued his strong season. Since joining the Astros from Oakland in 4 starts, he has a 1.04 ERA. That includes 7 2/3 IP of scoreless ball in his only home start at Houston. We play the run line, noting that 20/28 Rays' road losses have been by 2 or more runs, while 30/40 Houston home wins and 48/64 overall wins have been by 2 or more runs.
Kevin Rogers
Mariners at Rangers
Play: Mariners
The Rangers pulled off a three-game sweep of the Rays this past weekend, as Texas welcomes in Seattle. The Mariners are coming off a rough series at Boston in spite of winning on Sunday, allowing 45 runs in the three games. Taijuan Walker looks to fix Seattle's pitching woes tonight, as the M's are 8-2 in his last 10 starts, which includes a blown save in the 9th at Colorado earlier this month. Walker shut down the Rangers in Arlington earlier this season, allowing one unearned run in seven innings of a 3-1 victory. Cole Hamels makes his third start for Texas since getting traded from Philadelphia, giving up 16 hits and 9 ER in a pair of Rangers' losses. I'll back the Mariners here as a road dog to beat the Rangers.
Cajun Sports
Baltimore Orioles (-) vs. Oakland Athletics
The A’s and Orioles finish their four-game weekend series at Camden Yards on Monday night. The Orioles are fighting with the Angels for the AL Wild Card still a half-game back for that final postseason spot. The A’s will send Sonny Gray to the bump with his 12-4 record although his Thursday start was starched due to back spasms. The Orioles will counter with Chris Tillman who is 8-7 on the season. Before Tillman’s last outing he had allowed two runs or less in six straight trips to the bump. We know the Orioles are 11-1 SU in his last twelve home starts versus teams with a losing record. We also see the Orioles are 8-2 SU following a start in which Tillman lasted less than four innings. The A’s are 0-5 SU their last five versus teams with a winning record and 0-7 SU their last seven road games versus right-handed starters. We want to play against Oakland when they were on the road in their last game, 55-30 SU for +2920 Units of profit. We want to play ON MLB home favorites facing a team who won their starters last two trips to the bump. These home favorites are 789-517 SU for 60.4 percent winners and a profit of +7141 Units. With solid support for the home team we will back the Orioles in Game Four on Monday night.
Vernon Croy
Seattle +125
We are getting great value here tonight with a Mariners team that hit .333 against Hamels on August 7th with 3 homeruns in a 4-3 victory. That was actually Hamels last start and I never like a pitcher in the first game coming back from injury, especially a groin injury. The Rangers are just 1-7 in their last 8 home games when playing a team that has a losing record and the Mariners are a red hot 7-1 in their last 8 games against the Rangers including 6-1 in their last 7 trips to Arlington. The Mariners are 10-2 in Walker's last 12 starts overall and Walker allowed 0 earned runs in his only start against the Rangers this season which lasted 7 innings. Play the Seattle Mariners with confidence and make sure you get on my huge 12-Unit MLB 3 Pick Smash Pack that goes Monday night.
GoodFella
NY Yankees TT Over 4.5
Twins SP Gibson has been roughed up when he takes the ball vs the Yankees. Several of the current Yankees have had success vs him & I also like the fact that Gibson has really been regressing over the last 5 weeks. An ERA over 7.00 during this span & I fully expect these Yankees to get to him eventually. Then we get the Twins bullpen, which is not a strong one. Of course we also are getting these NYY vs a RH starter (very short porch in right field with a slew of left-handed sticks in the line-up). Also the time of year when the baseball carries the best in NY and we have a nice weather pattern for this evening. The bottom line for me is that I fully expect these Yankees to plate at least 5 runs before all the dust settles in this game & I am on the OVER 4.5 RUNS tonight.
Brian Hay
San Francisco Giants vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals -148
The Cardinals have a 44-18 home record and have only lost consecutive home games four times this season. The Cardinals have their best pitcher going, Michael Wacha. He's in outstanding form giving up just two runs in his last three starts all victories. Wacha's ERA during this span is 0.90. He's 6-2 at Busch Stadium this season with a 2.56 ERA. The Giants send Chris Heston to the hill tonight. Heston is not in good form and has been much worse on the road that at home. Heston is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in three starts this month. Heston has a 2.48 home ERA, but has a 4.45 road ERA. The last time the Giants were on the road they were swept four games by the Cubs. They are just a .500 team away from AT&T Park.
Tony George
Oakland Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -106
The O’s have been knocking it all over the place against Oakland, outscoring the A’s 30-11 in 3 games, and racking up 18 runs on Sunday, and have swept 3-0 in this series headed into tonight. Oakland has dropped 6 straight games, and playing good teams on the road is an issue for the A’s apparently as Toronto swept them 3-0 before this series. The A’s offense managed a mere 7 runs total in a 3 games series with the Blue Jays. Sonny Grey gets the start tonight for Oakland but will he have run support? The answer is no, not as much as Tillman will get, who has a career ERA of 2.10 against Oakland. Add in the fact the O’s offense has just found a way to get back on track at home here, as they had a whopping 26 hits against the A’s Sunday. They are facing the ace Sonny Grey tonight and it will be no day at the beach so to speak, I expect some runs here as Grey’s last 3 starts against the O’s have resulted in over a 7 ERA. How do you recover from giving up 26 hits and 18 runs and an exhausted bullpen to boot? You don’t.
Hollywood Sports
Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee (51-68) has won 6 straight home games as a favorite. They send out Garza who has been quite good since returning from the disabled list as he owns a 2.86 ERA in his last five starts. The Brewers have won 4 of their last 5 home games with Garza pitching as a favorite. Miami (47-70) has lost 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range.