SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PRESEASON
Jacksonville at Miami
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The Dolphins and Jaguars meet in August for the seventh consecutive year, this time in the preseason opener for both squads at Landshark Stadium.
Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio said No. 1 quarterback David Garrard will play the first quarter and “maybe a little more.” He added that the other two QBs on the roster – second-stringer Todd Bouman and rookie Paul Smith – will also see action.
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Tony Sparano, entering his second season as Miami’s coach, said veteran Chad Pennington will start under center tonight with second-year pro Chad Henne slated to play the middle two quarters. Rookie Pat White will take over after Henne departs.
The Jags went 3-1 SU in the preseason for the fourth straight year in 2008 and the fifth time in Del Rio’s six years with the team. Jacksonville split its four preseason contests against the number in 2008, but is still 8-4 ATS over the past three summers, including 5-1 SU and ATS on the road. Also, the Jags have been a profitable preseason pup since 2002, going 9-3 ATS.
Like the Jags, Miami won three of its four exhibition contests a year ago (3-1 ATS) and has split its two preseason home games each of the last six years (5-8-1 ATS). The Dolphins are just 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven as a preseason chalk.
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Jacksonville is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in its last four preseason openers, the only loss being an 18-17 setback at Miami as a 1½-point road favorite in 2007. Meanwhile, that was the Dolphins’ only Week 1 victory over the past four summers (1-2-1 ATS). Miami also defeated Jacksonville 19-14 as a 3½-point road underdog last year and is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four August meetings with the Jags.
Miami has stayed under the total in five straight preseason games, including all four last year. Conversely, the Jags have topped the total in 11 of 16 preseason games since 2005.
ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE
Carolina at N.Y. Giants
The Panthers look to open the preseason with a victory for the ninth straight year when they head to the Meadowlands to battle the Giants.
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Carolina coach John Fox said QB Jake Delhomme and the rest of his starters will play “about a quarter.” Josh McCown will replace Delhomme, followed by third-stringer Matt Moore and possibly Hunter Cantwell.
New York coach Tom Coughlin said he expects his starters, including QB Eli Manning to be on the field for 12 to 15 plays, perhaps even the entire first quarter. Coughlin added that he hopes his other three QBs see action, but expect at least David Carr and second-year pro Andre Woodson to get work, with Rhett Bomar being fourth off the bench if time permits.
The Panthers are 17-7 in preseason action since 2003 (14-10 ATS) and a perfect 8-0 SU in exhibition openers going back to 2001 (5-2-1 ATS). On the downside, Carolina dropped both of its preseason roadies last year (1-1 ATS), and they’re 3-5 ATS on the highway the last three summers.
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The Giants, like Carolina, split their four exhibition games last year (2-1-1 ATS), but they went 2-0 SU and ATS in the Meadowlands. In fact, New York is 6-2 SU and ATS in designated preseason home games since Coughlin took over in 2004, and it has also cashed in five straight August games as a favorite. However, the Giants have dropped consecutive preseason openers, including a 24-21 loss to the Panthers as a one-point home favorite in 2007.
The under is 8-4 in New York’s last 12 summer affairs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA and UNDER
MLB
St. Louis (67-52) at L.A. Dodgers (70-48)
The red-hot Cardinals open a seven-game road trip by sending ace Chris Carpenter (12-3, 2.27 ERA) to the hill in Los Angeles against the Dodgers’ Charlie Haeger (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who will be making just the second start of his career.
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St. Louis, currently atop the N.L. Central by 4½ games, has won eight of its last nine and wrapped up a 5-1 homestand with Sunday’s 7-5, walk-off win over the Padres. The Cardinals have won 12 of their last 13 series openers, seven of eight against the N.L. West, four of five on the road and six of seven when a right-handed starter is on the mound.
The struggling Dodgers have seen their lead in the N.L. West close to five games over the Rockies as they have dropped six of nine overall. They did beat the Diamondbacks 9-3 on Sunday to finish a six-game road trip at 3-3. Los Angeles is also on slides of 2-5 against the N.L. Central and 1-4 at home.
The Redbirds are on a 37-17 roll against Los Angeles, including taking eight of the last 11 meetings at Dodger Stadium.
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Carpenter has been outstanding lately for the Cardinals, winning seven straight decisions and going seven or more innings in six straight starts. On Wednesday at home, he held the Reds to two runs in seven innings of a 5-2 victory. Carpenter has won three of his last four road starts where he’s 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA for the season. He is also 4-0 with a 2.18 ERA in five career starts against the Dodgers, including a seven-inning effort on July 27 when he allowed just one run in seven innings of a 6-1 victory.
Haeger started 22 games for Triple-A Albuquerque earlier this season, but this is just his second in the major leagues, with his first coming in 2006 as a member of the White Sox. The last time he pitched in the majors was in 2008 with the Padres when he appeared in four games and allowed 10 runs on eight hits in 4 1/3 innings of relief work.
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St. Louis is on several “under” runs, including 7-3 in series openers, 9-3 on Mondays, 8-4 against the N.L. West and 5-3-2 against right-handed starters. Los Angeles has topped the total in nine of its last 13 at home and four of five at home against winning teams. Finally, the “under” is on a 4-1 run in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
Marc Lawrence
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Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
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Chicago opens a three-game series with the Padres in San Diego this evening when Ted Lilly takes the mound for the Cubs in his first start off the DL. Lilly enters tonight's fray with wins in 7 of his last 10 team starts. He's also 5-2 with a 2.97 ERA in his career team starts against the Padres. With San Diego mired in a 4-game losing streak, look for Lilly to continue his winning ways here tonight.
Vernon Croy
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LAA Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Orioles have the better pitcher on the mound Monday night. David Hernandez (4-4, 3.81 ERA) has pitched solid over his 4 home starts this season with an ERA of just 3.22 and he allowed just 6 hits and 3 earned runs in his only start against the Angels this season while lasting 6.7 innings. Ervin Santana (5-6, 6.38) struggled in his last 2 road starts allowing 13 hits and 9 earned runs over 12 innings and he also struggled in his only start against the Orioles this season allowing 8 hits and 4 earned runs over just 5 innings. Santana has allowed 4 or more earned runs in each of his last 3 starts against the Orioles while lasting more than 5 innings just once. The Orioles are hitting .295 as a team at home this season and I look for their bats to stay hot Monday night. Take the Baltimore Orioles Monday night.
Frank Jordan
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Miami Dolphins -3
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Miami won the AFC East last year as the wild cat formation was tough for teams to adjust to, but it wasn't enough to go deep into the playoffs. With Chad Pennington back under center to go with a solid running back in Ronnie Brown, a good burner of a wide out in Ted Ginn Jr. and a sturdy check down tight end in Anthony Fasano the Dolphins are poised for another run at the playoffs. Jacksonville had a miserable season last year that had some injuries, but mainly disappointment The Jags did get rid of veteran running back Fred Taylor and pick up a veteran in Torry Holt so to spare some punishment for Maurice Jones-Drew they should be going to the air some more. In this battle over Florida look for South Florida to get some bragging rights as they win at home. Play Miami
Cajun Sports
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LAA Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: LAA Angels
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The Angels and Orioles square off in the fourth and final game of their weekend set with the Angels leading two games to one. Baltimore won in the opening game on Friday night by a score of 16 to 6 with the Angels bouncing back on Saturday with a 5 to 1 victory and on Sunday they needed 13 innings to decide the contest with LA coming out on top 17 to 8. LA is 69-45 overall this season for +22.5 units of profit including 33-23 on the highway for +14.4 Units. The Angels are ranked number 1 in hitting with a batting average of .289 averaging 5.7 runs per game this season with OPS of .803. Their pitching has not been quite as dominating with a ranking of 26 and an ERA of 4.83 this season. Opponents have a batting average of .276 and an on base percentage of .344. Baltimore is 48-68 overall on the season for -16.0 units including a record of 30-29 at home for -0.6 units. The Orioles are ranked 5 in hitting with a batting average of .269 averaging 4.6 runs per game. Pitching has let them down with a ranking of 29 and an ERA of 5.04. Opponents have a batting average of .284 and an on base percentage of .349. LA will send Ervin Santana to the bump with his 4-2 record on the road with an ERA of 4.50. Over his last three outings he has a record of 2-0 with an ERA of 3.86. The Orioles will counter with David Hernandez who is 2-2 at home with an ERA of 3.22 this season. His last three starts have seen him post a record of 1-2 and an ERA of 5.79. LA is 21-9 (+9.9) when playing against a team with a win percentage of 38 to 46 percent this season while Baltimore is 8-32 (-19.7) when playing against a team with a win percentage of 54 to 62 percent in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. We will back the better team in the role of underdog or even in the role of small favorite if the line happens to move against us here. Take the odds or lay the short price as the Angels continue to play well and grab the series win on Monday over the Orioles.
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Graded Selection: 2* Los Angeles Angels 6 Baltimore Orioles 4
Steve Zukiel
Arizona D-Backs vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
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Atlanta is coming off a loss on Sunday night, but they have still won six of their last eight. The Diamondbacks are just 54-64 on the year and they have lost three straight, allowing 21 runs in the process.
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The Diamondbacks have Max Sherzer on the hill and does have some solid numbers(7-6, 3.94) but in the world of what have you done for me lately, he has an ERA of 6.19 in his last three starts.I also want to point out that in his last two road starts,Sherzer has gone just 9 1/3 innings of work, allowing 9 runs and 13 hits along the way.
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Atlanta goes with young gun Tommy Hanson and his 7-2 won/loss record and his rock solid 3.05 ERA. He has been just as consistent at home, where he has gone 4-1, the team has won five of his six home starts, and his ERA is at 3.41.
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This will be Hanson's first start against Arizona this season while Sherzer will be making his second start against the Braves. His first one is one he definitely wants to forget, allowing a whopping 8 runs and 10 hits in just 3 2/3 innings of work. Take Atlanta one more time.
Rob Vinciletti
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Over 8½
We ended the week big and tonight this comp play comes with a 13-1 totals system.What we want to do is play the over for certain road dogs of +140 or higher that are off a road dog win and scored 4 or less runs on 5+ hits if tonight's opponent is also off a road game where they scored 4 or less runs.This solid system averages 13.6 runs per game.In the pitching matchup we have B.Bannister for Kc. and he has been hit hard over his last 3 outings with a 7.45 era.In 16 innings vs the Sox he has allowed 16 earned runs on 23 hits.Chicago will have Mr.Perfect Buehrle starting tonight.Though he pitched well in his last start he has struggled in his last 2 home appearances allowing 12 earned runs in 12 innings on 23 hits.Both these teams have seen these 2 pitchers several times so there wont be any surprises.I would wait till game time as this total may get down to 8.5.
Brad Diamond Sports
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Play: Los Angeles/Baltimore Over
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After a loss Bird Land has gone Over in 9 of the last 10. Los Angeles is Over at 41-15-3 the last 59 times out, while this series has gone Over in 5 of the last 6. Don’t miss the Brad Diamond Sports red hot pitching box (15-1 angles) on Monday night, you will love the profit angle.
Bobby Maxwell
Minnesota at TEXAS -135
With tonight's FREE winner, we go to Arlington for a comp play on the Rangers as they host the Twins.
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Texas had a very nice weekend, taking two of three from the Red Sox in the battle of the top two teams in the A.L. Wildcard race. It was a big dose of confidence delivered to the team that tells them they are going to be around in the hunt for a playoff spot throughout September.
Now they will continue to crank it up as the Twins come to town. Tonight the Rangers send righty Tommy Hunter (5-2, 2.26 ERA) to the hill to face the Twins' lefty Francisco Liriano (5-11, 5.39).
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Texas has won 11 of its last 14 home games and Hunter has been magnificent lately. He's allowed three runs or less in eight of his last nine starts, including Wednesday when he blanked the Indians on six hits over 7.2 innings of a 5-0 Rangers' win.
Liriano is just 3-6 on the road with a 6.01 ERA and the Twins have dropped each of his last three roadies and four of his last five starts overall. He faced these Rangers back on July 19 in Texas and gave up three runs in six innings of a 5-3 loss. In his last two roadies, he's given up 10 runs in 10.1 innings in losses to the Angels and the Indians.
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Minnesota has struggled lately, dropping 11 of its last 15, including Sunday's home loss to the Tribe. The Twins are also on slides of 5-16 on Mondays, 2-7 against right-handers, 1-7 against the A.L. West and 5-11 when Liriano faces a winning team.
Texas has won 20 of its last 27 against southpaw starters and it is 26-12 at home against teams with losing records.
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Look for the Rangers to continue rolling at home. Play Texas.
4♦ TEXAS
Sports Gambling Hotline
LA Angels +110 at BALTIMORE
Our comp play run is 17-8-1 the last 27 days.
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We are having a hard time understanding the price on this game, as Baltimore is now 48-69 after yesterday's loss, while Los Angeles stands at 70-45 for the year.
Yesterday's win by the Angels also has them at 9-3 the last 12 meetings in Baltimore, and a whopping 36-17 overall the last 53 series meetings with the O's.
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Ervin Santana is fresh off his best start of the season, as he threw a complete game 3 hit shutout at the Tampa Bay Rays his last time out. Even if he does get roughed up by Baltimore, the Halos have plated 28 runs in the first 3 games of this series, so we would tend to believe LA will have enough offense to make up for any of Santana's shortcomings.
David Hernandez is just 1-2 his last 3 starts for the O's, and his ERA in that span is quite close to 6.
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We will go with the AL West leaders, as the make it 3 of 4 versus Baltimore before leaving Camden Yards.
Play on the Halos.
3♦ LA ANGELS
Dominic Fazzini
St. Louis -160 at L.A. DODGERS
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The Rays scored four in the eighth Sunday to give me a victory over Toronto on the run line. That makes it 12 wins in my last 16 complimentary selections, including seven of the last eight, and I don't plan on slowing down now!
Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter (12-3, 2.27 ERA) has been unbeatable since the beginning of July -- literally. The right-hander is 7-0 with a 2.10 ERA in his last eight starts, and allowed two runs and eight hits with 10 strikeouts in seven innings Wednesday against Cincinnati.
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Carpenter is also perfect in five career starts vs. the Dodgers, at 4-0 with a 2.18 ERA.
Los Angeles will send right-hander Charlie Haeger to the mound. Haeger, who will be making his season debut, is 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA in 19 career major league games (one start).
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Haeger, who throws a knuckleball, had a 16.62 ERA in four games with San Diego last year, and was 11-6 with a 3.55 ERA in 22 starts with Triple-A Albuquerque this season.
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St. Louis has won eight of its last nine games, and should have no problems today with its ace going against a marginal big-leaguer. This one might get ugly by the fourth inning. Take the Cardinals on the run line.
4♦ ST. LOUIS -1.5
Karl Garrett
San Francisco at NY METS
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G-Man is on a 23-15 comp play run the last 38 days.
Monday night at Citi Field, I expect the Mets to find a way to win yet another against the Giants.
San Francisco is a "go-with" at home this season, but on the road it has been a different story, as yesterday's 3-2 loss drops the Giants to 24-34 on the highway this season. Worse still, San Fran is just 11-28 the last 39 times they have faced the Mets in New York.
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New York is now a commanding 10-2 the last 12 series meetings against San Francisco, and while Mets hurler Livan Hernandez doesn't fool too many people these days, San Fran starter Joe Martinez is not exactly mowing them down himself.
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Martinez is 2-1 for the season - 1-1 in the starters role - with an ERA of 6.00.
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Sure, the Giants could light up Hernandez tonight, but based on San Francisco's road woes, and the fact the Mets are a decent 32-26 at home this year, the G-Man will side with the Metropolitans to get the job done.
2♦ NY METS
Doc's Sports
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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins
PICK: Jacksonville +3
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It is really hard to ignore Jacksonville’s preseason record under Coach Jack Del Rio. He is 18-6 straight-up in the preseason and getting points is just icing on the cake. He is also impressive ATS going 16-8 in those same 24 games. The Jaguars have lost the last two games to Miami in the preseason and this is certainly a make or break year for Coach Del Rio. They will come out strong tonight and win this game in what will likely be a low scoring affair and taking the points is the only side to consider.
JIM FEIST
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SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS / NEW YORK METS
TAKE: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
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The Giants have had their chance to close in on the division leading Dodgers but have not done so. With the Dodgers losing six of their last 10, so have the Giants and an opportunity. The Giants are one game back in the Wild Card Race too, with Colorado leading the way. But if you think the Giants have had some bad luck, that's nothing compared to the Mets. The Mets lost yet another key player as David Wright went down with a concussion after being struck by a pitch from Giants pitcher Matt Cain. Wright, who leads the team with a .324 BA, joins Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado on the DL and is possibly done for the rest of the season. The injuries have sunk the Mets chances this year as they now trail the Phillies by 11 1/2 games. Veteran Livan Hernandez starts today for the Mets and he's 0-2 his last three starts (8.40 ERA) and 7-7 on the season (5.28 ERA). Joe Martinez will make just his sixth major league appearance for the Giants and has a 2-1 mark on the year with a 6.00 ERA. The Mets just don't have much to offer these days and with the loss of their leading hitter they will have to rely on pitching and they just don't get that here on Monday with Hernandez. Take the Giants.
DUNKEL
NY Yankees at Oakland
The Yankees look to build on their 8-1 record in A.J. Burnett's last 9 starts. New York is the pick (-200) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-200).
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Game 901-902: Arizona at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Scherzer) 15.622; Atlanta (Hanson) 14.978
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+155); Under
Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Villanueva) 13.243; Pittsburgh (Hart) 13.573
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Over
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Game 905-906: San Francisco at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Martinez) 14.414; NY Mets (Hernandez) 14.965
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+100); Under
Game 907-908: Chicago Cubs at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Lilly) 13.903; San Diego (Correia) 14.961
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+115); Over
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Game 909-910: St. Louis at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 17.038; LA Dodgers (Haeger) 15.779
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Over
Game 911-912: LA Angels at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 15.835; Baltimore (Hernandez) 14.282
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+105); Over
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Game 913-914: Minnesota at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 15.808; Texas (Hunter) 15.727
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130); Over
Game 915-916: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 14.399; White Sox (Buehrle) 15.533
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-240); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-240); Under
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Game 917-918: NY Yankees at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.463; Oakland (Tomko) 14.821
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-200); Over
NFL
Game 279-280: Jacksonville at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 124.980; Miami 124.460
Dunkel Line: Even; 26
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 32
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3); Under
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Game 281-282: Carolina at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 121.895; NY Giants 122.500
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 30
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 33 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Under