Jimmy the Moose
Carolina at NY Giants
The Giants have great depth this season, with Bradshaw backing up Jacobs at running back and a plethora of receivers in their stable. With the Panthers short-handed Monday, go Giants.
Both the Carolina Panthers and the New York Giants have playoff aspirations heading into their first preseason game and both also have several questions with regarding their quarterbacks and what they can expect from them this year.
The Panthers and Giants made the playoffs last season but both went one and out and they are hoping to make a longer run this year. 3
In Carolina's only playoff game last year, they lost 33-13 to the Arizona Cardinals but it's the way they lost that really hurts. Jake Delhomme has been the starting QB for the Panthers for several years but his last game is one that he, the organization and the fans would like to forget.
On January 10, 2009 Delhomme completed 17 of 35 passes for 205 yards and threw 1 TD and 5 interceptions, that's not a typo, 5 INT'S. The Panthers had no chance at winning that game vs. a good Cardinals team with Delhomme playing like he did.
Tonight Delhomme gets back on the field, he won't play a lot, but he'll be facing an aggressive Giants defense that loves getting at the QB and they won't cut him any slack. The Giants have a lot to prove themselves and it will start tonight.
Carolina will try and run the ball like they did last year but tonight Williams will go solo as Stewart is nursing an ankle injury. Steve Smith should also be watching this one from the sidelines making Delhomme's life a little bit harder.
Last season the Giants ended their year on a 1-4 run with them losing to the Eagles 23-11 in the playoffs. The Giants season went downhill when Plaxico Burress shot himself and that distraction, although the Giants say it wasn't, was a big problem. New York continued to run the ball but Eli Manning and his wide receivers couldn't get on the same page.
Tonight Eli, the highest paid QB in the league, gets to show New York that he doesn't need Plax and that he can win with the WR's he has. Smith, Hixon, Manningham and rookies Nick and Barden plus others will have a lot to prove and from what they've shown in camp they are all up for the challenge. Over the last couple of years Manning has relied on Plax but this year he will have more options and that will make him a better QB.
New York will still be a running team first with Jacobs and now Bradshaw leading the way on offense and that will take some of the pressure off of Eli and his WR's. Jacobs will soften the opposing D's and then watch Eli and company take over. Enough talk about the offense, New York's D will be better than it was last year, and it was good in 2008. Led by Pierce, Tuck, Usi and too many more to name this D will be fun to watch.
Tonight's game is in New York and the fans will play a part in getting the Giants off to a winning start. Preseason games are a way for teams to show their depth and in this one New York's depth will shine. Take the Giants to win this one easily.
Lay the small spot with the New York Giants.
LT Profits
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
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Carlos Villanueva of the Milwaukee Brewers is better suited as a starter than he was as a reliever, while Kevin Hart has been impressive in his brief Major League career.
Hart is coming off of his first bad outing since being called up to the majors, but we will grant him a Mulligan for that effort as it was his first career outing in the altitude of Colorado. He had allowed three runs or less in his first five starts, four for the Chicago Cubs and one for the Pirates, and we look for him to return to that form here vs. a Brewers team that has never faced him before.
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Villanueva had some ugly numbers in the Milwaukee bullpen, but he has pitched better since being moved back to the starting rotation. Ironically, it was the bullpen that cost Villanueva a win last time out, when he limited the San Diego Padres to two runs and five hits in 5.2 innings. He is now facing a depleted Pittsburgh lineup that is betting a pathetic .222 over the last 10 games.
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In fact, the Pirates have scored a total of four runs in the last four games, and we do not expect a sudden wake-up call tonight for what is predominantly a AAA lineup.
Pick: Brewers/Pirates Under 9
MATT FARGO
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Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Over 10
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After scoring 22 runs on Friday, the Orioles and Angles combined for just six runs Saturday despite a combined 21 hits. They bounced back yesterday to put up 25 runs in an extra-inning and they will carry that into Monday. After a slow start this year, the Angels offense has risen up as they are hitting .291 on the season including .292 on the road, both of which are first in all of baseball. The Orioles meanwhile are hitting .294 at home which is also first in baseball so we have the situation of the two top teams in the league in home/road situation facing off and topping it off, going up against a couple struggling pitchers. Ervin Santana is a shell of the pitcher that we saw last season as he has not even come close to the solid numbers he put up. In 14 starts, he has a 6.38 ERA and 1.57 WHIP with only four of those 14 games being quality outings. He is coming off his best outing of the season as he allowed just three hits in a shutout of the Rays. I do not expect a repeat of that or one even close to it. His first three quality starts this season were followed up with awful performances as he allowed a combined 18 runs in just 11.2 innings for a horrid 13.89 ERA and 2.49 WHIP. In three starts against Baltimore the last two years, Santana has a 6.88 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. David Hernandez is also coming off a quality start in his last game and he lowered his ERA to 3.81 on the year. However, his WHIP is still a below average 1.49 and despite a 3.22 ERA at home, his WHIP is 1.70 and that is not good against a hot Angels offense. The ‘Over’ is 13-3-1 in the Angels last 17 road games against a right-handed starter while the ‘Over’ is 20-8 in the Orioles last 28 games against a team with a winning percentage greater than .600.
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3* Over Los Angeles Angels/Baltimore Orioles
VEGAS EXPERTS
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St Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
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The St Louis Cardinals are riding strong right now with a combination of good hitting and starting pitching. Tonight, their strongest pitcher Chris Carpenter gets the nod. Carpenter has been spectacular in his last three starts against the Dodgers. He has a 3-0 TSR and allowed just one run in the three starts. In his career, his team has won all five of his starts against Los Angeles. Go with the Cardinals here.
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Play on: St Louis Cardinals
Tommy Gill
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Play: Over 32.5 for 2 units
I feel there is a lot of perception in this number with Carolina and the Giants having two good defenses. But both teams are some what deeper in terms of injuries that have forced several defensive starters out of this game. I see two teams that are looking to establish their ground game and score some points tonight.
Spartan
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Kansas City at Chicago White Sox
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I am sometimes as stubborn as a missouri mule and am going right back against this Kansas City club tonight and suggesting a run line wager on Mark Buehrle and the White Sox to win this one handily. After a slight off stretch of looking human again Mark bounced back with a strong outing his last start tossing 8 shutout frames. He is 20-8 lifetime when dealing with KC with a 3.41 era. Trey Hillman is countering tonight with Brian Bannister, 7-9, 4.26. Bannister has been smacked around some his last couple of starts and I personally think he might be dealing with some arm fatigue issues. I'm passing on the heavy chalk and saying Ozzie's guys on the run line here.
Jeff Benton
Carolina +3 at N.Y. GIANTS
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My five-day free-play winning streak was snapped Sunday, as the Yankees got whipped in Seattle. Still, I’m on a 26-14 roll with my freebies, including hitting my first three NFL preseason selections. For Monday, I make it four in a row in the NFL by backing the Panthers plus the points at the Giants.
Perfection is hard to argue with, and Carolina is a perfect 8-0 in Week 1 preseason games going back to 2001. No, the Panthers didn’t cover in all eight (5-2-1 ATS), but that’s because they were favored in virtually all of those contests. Tonight, they’re catching three points, meaning if they continue their Week 1 winning streak, we’re pocketing money.
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Not only have the Panthers have come out of the gate strong for eight straight wins, but since losing Fox losing three of his first four games in his first year as coach in 2002, John Fox is 17-7 SU in preseason action. I don’t think that’s just some fluky trend; that tells me Fox wants to get his players in a winning mindset from the get-go.
Of course, wanting to win doesn’t guarantee anything. You’ve got to have talent on your roster, and Fox does – remember, the Panthers went 12-4 last year and won the tough NFC South. Most importantly as it pertains to this game, Fox is going to trot out a trio of quarterbacks with NFL experience: starter Jake Delhomme will play most if not all of the first quarter, followed by veteran Josh McCown and third-year pro Matt Moore, who actually played in 10 games (starting three) in 2007.
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As for the Giants, we won’t see Eli Manning for more than two series, and that means New York’s signal-caller for the majority of the game will be former No. 1 overall pick David Carr, second-year pro Andre Woodson (who was a disaster last preseason), and rookie Rhett Bomar. Uh, advantage Carolina!
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Finally, the Giants have lost back-to-back preseason openers, including a 24-21 home loss to Carolina two years ago. Give me the points here, even though I see another outright Panthers win.
3♦ CAROLINA
Rocketman
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Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh
Play: Milwaukee
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Milwaukee is now 58-59 overall this year while Pittsburgh comes in with a 46-70 overall record this season. Pittsburgh is 2-12 in August this year. Milwaukee has won 3 of their last 4 games overall. Pittsburgh has lost 4 in a row and 11 of their last 12 overall. Pittsburgh is scoring only 4 runs per game overall this year. Carlos Villanueva has a 3.37 ERA his last 3 starts. Milwaukee is 30-9 overall vs Pittsburgh last 3 years including winning 6 of 8 against Pittsburgh this year. We'll recommend a small play on Milwaukee tonight!
Yankee Capper
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Milwaukee Brewers -115
Milwaukee/Pittsburgh Over 9
St. Louis/LA Dodgers Over 7.5
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Carolina/NY Giants Over 32.5
Tom Freese
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Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Texas Rangers
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Reason: Texas is 9-0 their last 9 games as home favorites and they are 20-6 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30. The Rangers are 20-7 at home vs. lefty starters and they are 13-5 at home vs. losing teams. The Rangers are 4-1 in the last 5 starts made by Tommy Hunter. Minnesota is 4-11 their last 15 games overall and they are 4-11 with Francisco Liriano on the mound with 4 days rest. The Twins are 1-4 their last 5 road games and they are 1-7 vs. AL West teams. PLAY ON TEXAS -
John Ryan
New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Oakland as they host the New York Yankees set to start at 10:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 30-21 making 35.8 units since 1997. Play against AL road favorites with a money line of -175 or more with a team on base percentage of .350 or better on the season and after allowing 8 runs or more. Yankees are just 3-13 (-11.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 9-16 (-15.3 Units) against the money line after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last 3 seasons. Oakland is a solid 11-3 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in home games after allowing 2 runs or less this season. Take Oakland.
Drew Gordon
Now on a 41-31 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Rangers over the Red Sox 4-3 Sunday! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Minnesota/Texas match up...
One day removed from giving you the Rangers as my Free Play winner, I'm going against them tonight versus the Twins. The reasons are simple, but let's start with the fact they're coming off a huge emotional series win over the Sox, and a letdown here should very much concern Rangers-backers in this one.
But that's hardly the only reason to like the Twins in this spot, as you shouldn't understimate Francisco Liriano in this match up either. Twins lefty is coming off his best start of the season, locking down the Royals to 1 run on just 3 hits over 7 innings, while striking out 8 and walking just 1 batter! Liriano backers know when he's "on," he can be downright nasty, and this is precisely one of those times. Not to mention, Liriano has superb numbers in Arlington, posting a miniscule 1.13 ERA in 3 career games (2 starts)!
On the flip side, critics of this play will argue that going against Tommy Hunter is crazy talk, and its hard to argue against a pitcher who's turned in 5 quality starts in his last 6 outings. However, Hunter's ERA is 2+ runs higher at home (0.87 away vs 3.09 at home), and that's a number that's VERY hard to ignore. Not only that, but Minnesota is swinging the bats extremely well, batting a red-hot .316 against righties over their last 10 games! Consider this before you jump aboard the Rangers bandwagon tonight. In the end, look for Liriano to build off his excellent effort against the Royals, (doing it in a place he's got great career numbers), as his teams desperately needs to get back on track.
Take Minnesota behind Liriano over Texas and Hunter in this MLB match up.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Wunderdog
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Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh +110
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The Brewers started the season apparently not missing the big losses in their rotation, but it has caught up to them. Tonight it will be sometimes starter, and sometime-reliever Carlos Villanueva. Villanueva has not had success in either roll and the Brewers are 4-9 in his 13 starts the last two years. The Pirates will get a lift on the mound tonight as Kevin Hart takes the ball. Hart has made six starts and allowed more than three runs in just one of them while pitching to a more than adequate 3.69 ERA. The Brewers are just 5-14 in their last 19 road games against a home team with a winning record on the season, and Villanueva has lost all of his last six starts against the NL Central. I'll go with the Pirates in this one.
Glenn McGrew
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Yankees at Oakland
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NY looks to get back on track after getting blasted at Seattle last night. The top offense in baseball should have no trouble against Oakland starter Brett Tomko, with weak stuff and a 5.23 ERA. A.J. ! Burnett os NY has an ERA just under 5 his last three starts. He walks a few too many batters (73 in 145 innings) and Oakland is a patient team.
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Play the Yankees/Oakland Over the total.
Lenny Del Genio
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Carolina Panthers at New York Giants
Prediction: Carolina Panthers
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The Panthers have been a preseason cash cow for years going 13-4 ATS vs. the NFC and are 5-1 ATS vs. the Giants all-time. Incredibly, Carolina is 16-2 ATS as a preseason dog and 6-2 ATS in preseason openers. They also have revenge for a regular season loss on their minds. Take Carolina.