3G-Sports
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Arizona D-Backs vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
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Tommy Hanson (Atlanta Braves) The rookie righty was hot before the All-Star break, then cooled off a bit. He is back in rhythm again. Hanson is 3-2 in five starts since the break and the Braves did not score in both losses. He has 30 strikeouts and just six walks in that stretch and pitches very good at home during the day. He has won his last two outings, fanning 14 in 12 2-3 innings while giving up just three earned runs.
Bob Harvey
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles
The Angels exploded for nine runs on Sunday...in the 13th inning alone. Look for another Over tonight in Baltimore when the Halos and Orioles wrap up their series.
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The Angels continue to dismantle opposing pitchers, a trend that I expect to continue today in the series finale against the Orioles.
Camden YardsLos Angeles racked up 17 runs and 23 hits, eight for extra bases en route to a wild 17-8 victory over Baltimore at Camden Yards. The Angels scored nine times in the 13th inning, the biggest extra-inning outburst by any team in 14 years. The Angels have become the masters of the big inning this summer, scoring four or more runs in an inning 21 times in the last 37 games.
The Angels are also getting healthy although they’ll have to wait another day to get Torii Hunter and Vlad Guerrero in the lineup at the same time. Hunter played Sunday while Guerrero rested. Vlad returns today with Hunter getting a day off. Guerrero is hitting .362 with six homers and 12 RBI’s in his last 15 games.
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At 21-8 since the All-Star break, the Angels are hitting .312 with runners in scoring position, tops in the majors. Los Angeles is also hitting a major league-best .295 versus righthanders, which is not good news for Orioles rookie David Hernandez who gets the start today for the Birds. Hernandez is 4-4 with a 3.81 ERA and 1-0 against the Angels this season. He beat the Halos and Ervin Santana on July 3, 6-4.
Santana, coming off the best start of this injury-plagued season, goes for the Angels tonight. He tossed a complete game, three-hit shutout with six strikeouts and two walks to lead the Angels to a 6-0 victory. If he can back that up with another strong performance today, Santana would go a long way toward proving he is over the elbow problems that have sidelined him for two months this season.
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The Angels continue to put up impressive numbers in every offensive category and that’s led to a phenomenal 34-23 road record. The “Beachtown Bashers” are 33-21-3 to the Over away from Orange County. Los Halos are first in the majors in runs scored per game and batting average, they’re second in on-base percentage and stolen bases and 12th in home runs. There’s no way I’m going against those numbers.
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Both bullpens are spent and unless Hernandez and Santana can go deep into the game, I suspect we’re going to see another shoot-out. I’m all over the Over tonight and I’m also leaning towards Santana and the Angels as a side play. If Santana is indeed “back” he gives LA a real advantage tonight in the series finale.
Pick: Angels-Orioles Over 10
Craig Trapp
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
Not in love with the price but love ATL to win today very easily. Starting for ATL today is young phenom Hanson. He has been even better than the hype with a 7-2 record and a 3.05 ERA. The righty posted a 2.13 ERA in winning back-to-back starts after suffering the first two losses of his career in his previous two outings. On the other side ARI goes with Scherzer. He has struggled in last three starts going 1-0 but giving up 11 ER in only 15 innings. Also struggled verse ATL this year going 1-1 giving up 7 runs in only 9 innings. Braves are in a must win whereas the Snakes just are playing out the season. ATL is very good at home and think there bats will show up big today!! SCORE ATL 6 - ARI 2
Nite Owl Sports
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Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Pick: 3 units Over 32.5
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Yes, we know that playing totals in NFL-X games can be “dicey," especially taking the Over in the first game for each team. But the Over records and average points scored in the NFL-X games played in recent years with these two head coaches (Coughlin of NY and Fox of Carolina) are just too compelling to ignore, as is this totals line of 32.5, which is low even for a pre-season game. More specifically, these two head coaches have combined for 44 Overs and 36 Unders over the last several pre-seasons, and Fox is 4-1 to the Over, both in Carolina’s last five pre-season openers, and in his last five road pre-season openers. But even more significant is Carolina’s 6-3-1 road over log for the last five pre-seasons, incl 3-0-1 over in their four roadies in the last two pre-seasons, with an average of 38.5 total ppg scored in those four games. And let’s not forget that during the last five years, these two teams have played each other three times in the pre-season under the same head coaches, and the over has gone 3-0 in those games, with an average of 47 ppg, most recently a 45 point game in NY in August 2007.
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And Coughlin of NY is no “slouch” either as far as his home Over log is concerned, with his Giants going 4-1 to the Over in their L5 home openers and an average of a whopping 48 total points being scored in those games. And if the annual pre-season Meadowlands snorefest between the two NY teams (Giants and Jets) is eliminated from Giants’ home totals record, the G-men are 3-2 to the Over at home, with an average of 44 total ppg, for the last three pre-seasons. So combining and averaging the recent home and road totals records and #s for both of these teams, we get an 6-2-1 advantage to the Over, with a projected 41 points being scored in this game, comfortably higher than the low totals line of 32.5 for this game. But since we never really know how much “experimenting" the head coaches will be doing in these pre-season games, especially the first two, we’ll limit this pick to three units at 32.5 or less (make it two units at 33).
Mike Rose
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New York Giants -3
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Both teams have very intriguing situations going on at the quarterback position behind their starters. Both Jake Delhomme (Carolina) and Eli Manning (New York) are known commodities, but Carolina backups Matt Moore and Hunter Cantwell and New York backups Andre Woodson and Rhett Bomar really make the second half of this game a crap shoot for football betting enthusiasts to take a stab at. Both teams went 2-2 SU last preseason, but the Giants went 2-0-2 ATS, while the Panthers went 2-0 ATS. Last seasons 24.8 points per game bucked a huge Carolina trend in the preseason though. Over the previous two preseasons, the Panthers had only averaged 13.6 points per game. Bank on that stat to rear its ugly head tonight as the hosts come out and defend their home turf with a victory.
Scott Rickenbach
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Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Under 10.5
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Being patient with the markets has paid off here as this total is now up to a 10.5 in most books. The upward move from a 10 this morning does not surprise us at all. The Orioles are one of the top hitting teams when at home while the Angels are one of the top hitting teams in the majors no matter where they are playing. As a result, Los Angeles has been on an amazing run to the over for a long period of time now. However, what is now happening is an over-adjustment by the markets in this one! Even though the Angels have been an “over” team, the pitching match-up today is absolutely conducive to an under. Look for a pitchers duel at Oriole Park at Camden Yards tonight!
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While Ervin Santana’s 6.38 ERA on the season is very unimpressive, note that he’s pitching better right now than he has all season. The Angels are 5-1 in his last six starts and he’s given up just 33 hits in his last 38.2 innings of work. Also, he’s struck out 30 in his last 30.2 innings as he’s simply on top of his game right now. Another guy who is flying “under the radar” a bit right now is David Hernandez of the Orioles. The right-hander had recently endured a few tough outings and this has caused many to over-react. Sure enough, after back to back subpar outings, Hernandez bounced back with a gem versus Oakland as he allowed just two earned runs in 6.2 innings of work. This was the 7th time in the last 8 starts that Hernandez has made that he’s allowed three earned runs or less. Keep in mind that what makes that stretch even more impressive is that he enjoyed quality outings against the Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels. Those are three of the most dangerous lineups in the league. Now he gets another shot at the Angels and we feel this big total is offering great value to under players. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Baltimore on Monday night.
Jake Timlin
Take the Cardinals as they open their road series in Los Angeles a winner.
St. Louis winners of 8 of their last 9 games and 14 of their last 18 and now with a huge advantage on the mound tonight I look for the Cardinals to narrow the gap for the league’s best record.
Paving the way for the Cardinals tonight will be CY Young candidate Chris Carpenter who has been unbeatable over the past few months by winning his last seven decisions.
Meanwhile, for Los Angeles given that they have lost 6 of their last 9 games as they turn to Haeger who is making his season debut after posting a 16 plus ERA in four relief performances last season.
Simple, given how well St. Louis is playing right now mixed in with Carpenter pitching I don’t see the Cardinals losing tonight.
1♦ St. Louis Cardinals
Michael Cannon
Milwaukee -115 at PITTSBURGH
Take the Brewers for the road win over the Pirates.
Wow, can Pittsburgh get any worse? It’s a good thing the fans have the Steelers and Penguins because they certainly don’t have a baseball team to root for.
Milwaukee has owned the Bucs recently as well, winning 18 of the last 20 matchups.
Pittsburgh has lost 12 of its last 13 and seem primed to take over the bottom spot in the majors from the Nationals. There isn’t anybody in the Bucs lineup that strikes fear into the opposition, so it doesn’t matter how good the pitching is because there won’t be any runs for them to work with.
The Brewers really need to take advantage of this road trip. After the Pirates the Brew Crew will take on the Nationals, so if Milwaukee is going to make a run now’s the time.
I think they’ll be up for the task tonight.
Take the Brewers as they grab the road win.
4♦ MILWAUKEE
Greg Shaker
Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers
Play: Rangers
There are a lot of ways to win at Baseball handicapping and while I certainly do not win every game I play, I always feel that I am putting myself in the best situation to do so. Baseball is a finesse sport and that means that regardless of how good you handicap the result of a contest, shit is going to happen sometimes. We are putting ourselves in the best situation tonight with Texas hosting the Minnesota Twins. First and foremost is the fact that Texas has the second best Home Money Won Stats of all teams in Major League Baseball over the last 12 years, just behind the Rockies. The reason is a simple one. This park at Arlington is quite different than any other in the AL and Texas is Taylormade to suit it. Once again this year, they are showing us why that is true with a 39-22 record here. They also just happen to strike lefties well here with a 20-7 Mark verses these guys in their last 27 played here. Liriano has thrown well verses the Rangers but he is not throwing so well right now save for a nice performance verses the Royals. He has struggled greatly on the road and low and behold the Twins have as well. Minnesota has only a glimmer of hope left for the playoffs and it is showing recently, losing their last two series to the lowly Indians and Royals. Texas is going to be eating at home today, they are going to have plenty of rest, and most will have the comfort of their loved one's waiting on them hand and foot. Twins will not have that and have enjoyed only those complimentary peanuts offered by the airline. Hunter has proven to be a quality Major League Starter, he is throwing well, he is throwing well here and he will have the advantage of throwing at the Twins for the first time. Let's lay this number, which is at bit high, but I think well worth the risk.