Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August 2,2010

Marc Lawrence
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Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
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The Brewers and Cubs battle in Game One of this three game division matchup tonight when Yovanni Gallardo takes the mound against Randy Wells at Wrigley Field. Gallardo enters with wins in three of his last five team starts while sporting a 3.42 ERA in those games. With Wells just 3-9 in his last 12 team starts, look for Gallardo to improve to 4-2 in his career team starts in this series here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Milwaukee.

Matt Fargo
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Washington Nationals vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Washington Nationals
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Washington had a very successful homestand where it was able to win both of its series against the Phillies and Braves to put together a tidy 4-2 week. The Nationals now hit the road where things have not been nearly as kind but they are not exactly facing a top caliber team to start the week. Arizona was able to string together a series win against the Mets which snapped a seven-game losing streak and provide the Diamondbacks with a little momentum to move forward. They have owned New York as they swept the Mets at home the week prior and taking those three games and Arizona is a mere 3-13 in its last 16 home games so there is far from an edge for the Diamondbacks here. Livan Hernandez remains one of the top comeback players this season as he continues to pitch extremely well. Prior to his last outing he had allowed only two runs on 15 innings in two starts since the All-Star break and most impressive were that they were on the road. He is coming off an uneven start in his last game against the Braves as his command was clearly not there and it resulted in his shortest outing of the season. He did allow only three runs so it was far from horrible, just not used to what we have been seeing. The Diamondbacks are 8-30 in the 38 games this season against National League starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.50 or better. Rodrigo Lopez counters for Arizona and he has been as inconsistent as they come. 11 of his 21 starts have been quality outings and anything over 50 percent isn’t all that bad. The problem is that when things go bad, they go really bad. In those 10 non-quality outings, he has a 7.34 ERA and to no surprise Arizona has been on the losing side of the vast majority of those including a 1-7 record over the last eight. Washington is 4-1 in its last five games against right-handed starters and 5-1 in the last six meetings with Arizona. 3* Washington Nationals

Steve Merril
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Houston Astros vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Houston Astros +1.5
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The Astros are playing some of their best baseball right now; they have won five straight games and six of their last seven games overall. Tonight they head to St. Louis to begin a series with the Cardinals. The Astros are 4-2 so far in St. Louis and will send their new ace pitcher Brett Myers to the hill. The righty will be pitching after getting a contract extension from the Astros thru 2012. The deal is worth $29.5 million and it includes a team option for 2013. In three starts against St. Louis this season, Myers is 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA. He has given up just five runs over 21 innings pitched against the Redbirds. Yadier Molina (5-23), Randy Winn (2-11), Jason LaRue (2-8), Colby Rasmus (0-8), Brendan Ryan (0-4), and Nick Stavinoha (1-4) have poor numbers against Myers. Jake Westbrook makes his first start for the Cardinals. He's 6-7 with a 4.65 ERA in 21 starts this season. Carlos Lee is the only Houston hitter to have faced him, and he is 12 for 30 against Westbrook. Westbrook went 1-1 in four interleague starts this season. He gave up 15 runs over 24.1 innings pitched against the Reds, Phillies, Nationals, and Mets. Houston is hitting nearly .270 over their last eight games, and they also moved to 28-20 against the rest of the N.L. Central. We expect a close game in St. Louis so we’ll recommend taking Houston on the run line in this game tonight.

Cajun Sports
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Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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The Twins travel to south Florida for a four-game set versus the host Tampa Bay Rays beginning on Monday. Minnesota is 8-16 on the road as an underdog of 100 to 125 and 4-10 on the road with a total in this range. Tampa Bay is 42-29 versus right-handed starters, 28-19 when facing teams with a winning record and 44-29 when playing under the lights this season. We will back the host here as the Rays take Game 1 of this series in Cigar City on Monday night.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Tampa Bay Rays 3 Minnesota Twins 2

Rob Vinciletti
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Reds vs. Pirates
Play: Under 8
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This game fits a nice totals system that plays to the under for road favorites off a home dog win that scored 4 or less runs, vs an opponent that scored 2 or less runs. In the series 13 of the last 20 have played under. The Pirates have struggled offensively and have averaged just 2.5 rpg vover their last 7 games. The Pitching matchup has Ohlendorf for Pittsburgh vs Wood for The Reds. Ohlendorf has gone under in 12 of 15 starts and Wood has a fine 3.13 road era. Look for a low scoring game here tonight.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Royals @ Athletics
Pick: Athletics -1.5
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For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is the Athletic's on the "run line":

Brian Bannister heads to the hill for the visitors; Bannister is a "gas can"; he allowed four runs or more for the eight time in nine outings on Wednesday against Minnesota; he gave up five runs on 11 hits; he's 1-7 with a dismal 7.85 ERA over that time.
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Important to note here that Kansas City is in fact 3-11 (-6.8 units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season; also just 29-41 (-3.5 units) in "night games".

In the other dugout: Trevor Cahill gets the nod for the home side; Cahill threw eight scoreless frames against Texas on Wednesday; I look for him to build off that victory this evening.
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He's 10-4 on the year with a 2.93 ERA.

And remember, Oakland is already 1-0 (+1 unit) as a home favorite in the -175 to -200 range; also an awesome 24-16 (+7.2 units) when playing against a team with a losing record.

Bottom line: Cahill went an unremarkable 10-13 with a 4.63 ERA last year; this season he's allowed one or no runs in nine of his 18 starts in 2010.

Oakland lost 4-1 on Sunday; I expect this team to play with an extremely concerted effort in front of the home town crowd.
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Kansas City is coming off a satisfying series victory over Baltimore; classic "letdown spot" here.
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When taking all of the above into account, you may want to consider a second look at the A's on the RUN LINE tonight.

JIM FEIST

WASHINGTON NATIONALS/ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
PLAY: WASHINGTON NATIONALS

The Diamondbacks were very active during the last week of the trade deadline. They dealt Dan Haren to the Angels, Edwin Jackson and Chad Qualls also have departed. Still, even with a bit different looking team they took two of three from the Mets, their first winning road series since June. The Nationals are coming off a very successful home stand where they took four of six from the Phillies and first place Braves. Livan Hernandez will start for the Nationals against one of his former clubs. Hernandez, who pitched with the playoff bound D'backs in 2007, is 10-7 with a 2.74 ERA in 20 starts against his old club. Rodrigo Lopez starts for the D'backs. Lopez has lost two straight games and allowed four earned runs in five innings his last start at Philadelphia. I am taking the Nationals here. They have played with a lot of heart taking both series against the Phillies and Braves. The D'backs just have to many new players and faces going on for my likes. Take the Nationals on Monday.

Tom Freese
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Houston Astros at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Houston Astros
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Houston starter Brett Myers has allowed 2 or less runs in five straight starts. Myers has 24 strikeouts and just 4 walks in his last 3 starts. The Astros are 4-0 their last 4 games as underdogs and they are 5-0 their last 5 games vs. NL Central teams. Houston is 7-3 in game one of series. The Cardinals are starting Jake Westbrook who they traded for over the weekend. Westbrook was 10-11 in his teams starts with the Indians this year. St Louis is 2-5 their last 7 meetings with the Astros and they are 0-4 their last 4 home games vs. the Astros.

SPORTS WAGERS
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Milwaukee –1.09 over CHICAGO
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Both these teams were swept on the weekend. The Brewers were wiped out in Houston while the Cubbies were getting clocked in Colorado. The big difference is that the Cubs bullpen, which was called upon to work 15 of the 27 innings, is running on fumes. It’s also difficult to bounce back after playing in the high altitude of Denver and you can double that when you get swept and have dropped five straight. The Cubbies are in “play out the season mode” and they’re in very tough here against Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo ranks eight in the NL with a 2.77 ERA and 9th in strikeouts with 130. He’s been knocked out early in two of his last three starts but the good news is that his pitch count was low and way under 100 in both of those starts. He was also under 100 pitches in between those starts when he threw a near flawless 95 pitches against the Pirates on July 22. Gallardo is a high quality pitcher with electric stuff and has a great chance for success here. Furthermore, the Brewers have a league-leading .777 OPS on the road this season and will face a very hittable Randy Wells. Wells is definitely on a good run right now but current Milwaukee hitters have faced Wells 78 times and have a .333 BA against him. He’s labored at home and while he’s certainly capable of a good game, the Brewers have a big edge on the mound with Gallardo, a bigger edge with its offense and a slight edge hitting against a gassed pitching staff that has allowed 45 runs during Chicago’s losing streak, batted .352 and drew 28 walks in that five-game stretch. Play: Milwaukee –1.09 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Chicago Cubs +111
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Plays on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less, against an opponent that has scored 4 runs or less in 3 straight games, are 58-29 since 1997, including 28-10 the last 3 seasons. While Gallardo is having a solid season, the Cubs' Wells enters in better form, carrying an ERA of only 1.37 over his last 3 starts. Meanwhile, Gallardo has posted an ERA of 4.76 over his last 3 starts. In addition, Wells has slightly better career numbers against the Brewers than Gallardo does against the Cubs. Wells is 2-1 lifetime against the Brew Crew with an ERA of 3.81 while Gallardo is 1-1 lifetime against Chicago with an ERA of 4.30. The Cubs have taken 6 of 9 against Milwaukee this season, and I'll back them at home showing solid value as a dog tonight.

Stephen Nover

I am 47-29-1 on my past 77 complimentary selections through Saturday. The Monday card is short, but there is value backing the Milwaukee Brewers.
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The Brewers are going with their ace, Yovani Gallardo, against a Chicago Cubs squad that officially gave up on their season this weekend dealing Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot.

The Brewers, by contrast, are not quitting. They refused to deal Prince Fielder or Corey Hart because they still believe they have playoff hopes.
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The Cubs can't be trusted to always give a good effort. Their manager, Lou Piniella, has already said he won't be back next year. Chicago has lost five in a row, allowing 45 runs during its five-game losing streak.

Gallardo is 9-5 with a 2.77 ERA. He is 5-1 on the road with a 2.06 ERA and is 7-1 with a 2.01 ERA in night contests. The Brewers just were swept by the Astros. This is a huge game for them. Gallardo has been their stopper all season.
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The Cubs are going with Randy Wells, who is coming off a season-high five walks in 5 2/3 innings during his last start this past Wednesday against Houston. Chicago has lost in nine of Wells' past 12 starts.
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Third baseman Aramis Ramirez didn't start the Cubs' game on Sunday because his thumb was bothering him again. The injury has been on-and-off and was a reason why Ramirez struggled early in the season. Ramirez rebounded in July to hit .313 with nine homers and 25 RBI's. But having his thumb injury bother him again could render him ineffective.

2♦ MILWAUKEE

Scott Delaney

Kansas City at Oakland

I'll play the Athletics on the Run Line tonight against the Royals.

Trevor Cahill is toeing the slab for the Athletics, should be a no-brainer.
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The 22-year-old All-Star will set a career high in wins when he stifles Kansas City tonight, and the runs should be aplenty in support of him, as the Royals hand the ball to Brian Bannister.

Cahill has allowed one or no runs in nine of his 18 starts in 2010, and is 2-0 in three starts against Kansas City.

And Oakland, as a team, has won nine of 11 against the Royals.
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Bannister is 0-5 with a 7.15 ERA in six starts since June 23, and comes in after allowing five runs and 11 hits in six innings of a 6-4 loss to Minnesota last Wednesday.
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And against Oakland, he has gone 1-5 with a 5.29 ERA in nine starts.

This will be all Athletics tonight!

3♦ OAKLAND -1.5

Rocketman
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Houston @ St Louis
Play: Houston +150
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Houston is 28-20 this year against division opponents. Houston has won 5 games in a row heading into tonight's action. Brett Myers is 8-6 with a 3.10 ERA overall this year and 2-0 with a 1.52 ERA his last 3 starts. Myers has allowed only 4 runs his last 3 starts and is averaging right at 8 innings per start. Myers has struck out 24 and walked only 4 in his last 3 starts. Myers is 6-2 overall vs St Louis since 1997 while Westbrook is 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA overall vs Houston since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight!

Tony Stoffo
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Mets vs. Braves
Play: Under 7
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With Santana getting the start here against Hudson tonight have to look for a very low scoring game and a solid release on the Under in this spot. First off when Santana has started against the Braves the Under has been money in the bank going 9-1. In his last start against Atlanta Johan threw 7 scoreless innings while giving up only 5 hits. So let's look for another impressive start from Santana here. Plus with the hitting problems that the Mets have had on the road so far this season with a .237 avg. and .292 OBP I can also see Tim Hudson having a solid start this evening. Hudson in his only start against the Mets this season was dominating throwing 7 scoreless innings while making the Mets hitters look inferior. So saying this I can see a 2-1 final written all over this game making the Under the strong choice in this spot. Under is 10-1-1 in Mets last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Under is 7-1 in Santana's last 8 starts as a road underdog. Under is 5-0 in Hudsons last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Under is a perfect 8-0 in the Mets-Braves games so far this season.