Frank Jordan
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Cleveland Indians vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Cleveland Indians
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Cleveland traded away some of their veterans over the weekend to make room for the young guys to come up and get some experience. One that they kept was Fausto Carmona who is a 10 game winner this year and their ace. He has one other start this year against Boston and did pick up the loss, but pitched well going 6 innings allowing just two earned runs in a 4-1 game. Look for Carmona to pitch well again and the Indian bats to beat around Lackey as the Indians take this one. Play Cleveland
Steve Janus
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Kansas City Royals vs. Oakland Athletics
Pick: Oakland Athletics -1.5
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I am taking the A's to not only beat the Royals on Monday, but I have them covering the run line and winning this game by at least two runs. The A's have Trevor Cahill on the mound, and he has been rock solid all season with a 10-4 record and 2.93 ERA. Cahill is coming off a great showing at Texas in his last start where he allowed no runs in 8 innings of work. The Royals on the other hand have Brian Bannister on the mound, and he has a 7.10 ERA on the road.Bannister is 0-3 in his last three starts, and in each game the Royals have lost by at least two runs. Bet the A's -1.5!
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds -141
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Wood has been rock solid for the Reds, especially on the road where he is 1-0 (4-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.13. The lefty's road success should continue tonight against a Pittsburgh club only averaging 3.7 runs per game against southpaw starters. The Reds are 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in this series, including 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh. The Pirates are just 5-15 in Ohlendorf's last 20 starts, and they have lost both of his starts against the Reds this season. Take Cincy.
Info Plays
3* on Tampa Bay Rays -115
Reasons the Rays win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home teams (TAMPA BAY) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings. This is a 114-56 ML System hitting 67.1% over the last 5 seasons gaining +62.8 units.
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2.) Rarely will you get the Rays at this price at home. Their top pitching prospect goes tonight in Jeremy Hellickson which is a big reason why. But we have no doubt Tampa will give him enough run support to pick up his first major league win in his debut. Plus, Justin Morneau is on the 15-Day DL and Joe Mauer is not expected to be in the starting line-up Monday as he nurses to a shoulder injury.
Doug Upstone
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
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Losing two games in a row at home to Cleveland, who participated in the end of July yard sale of players for non-contending teams, has to leave impression on Toronto players, especially with next opponent on tap. The Yankees lost a series to Tampa Bay, narrowing their lead in the AL East and their potent lineup didn't change the number on the scoreboard yesterday.
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Tonight's free play has us Playing Against teams like the Blue Jays after two straight losses by two runs or less, against opponent after they were shutout. In the past 13 seasons, this system is 37-12.
LARRY NESS
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Houston Astros @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
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The Cards own a half-game lead over the Reds in the NL Central and all season, have been looking for pitchers to fill out their rotation. Carpenter Wainwright and rookie Garcia have been terrific but the four and five-spots have been the team's Achilles' heel all year. Is Jake Westbrook the answer? He was acquired by St Louis on Saturday in a three-team deal that sent Ryan Ludwick to San Diego. Westbrook went 6-7 with a 4.65 ERA in 21 starts for Cleveland (team was 8-13) but many should remember he made 30-plus starts for the Indians in three straight seasons (2005-07) while winning 44 games. LaRussa and Duncan have had a history of reviving pitchers' careers and Westbrook seems a a likely candidate. His NL debut comes tonight vs the Astros, a team on a five-game winning streak. Brett Myers (8-6, 3.10 ERA) gets the start for Houston and the Astros just rewarded the veteran with a two-year extension that could be worth up to $29.5 million if the club picks up the 2013 option and he meets certain performance bonuses. Myers has pitched at least six innings in a franchise-record 21 consecutive starts to open the 2010 season and is already 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA in three starts against the Cardinals this season. The Astros have also won their last four in St Louis but Houston is just 19-30 on the road this year plus look at Myers' home and away numbers in 2010. He's 6-0 (team is 9-1) in his home starts but 2-6 (team is 3-8) in his away starts. Back Westbrook and the Cards in this one.
Sac Lawson
TAM / MIN Under 8
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I've said it before and I'll say it again... Hellickson is legit. This kid is coming in with an 18-4 record in AAA, a WHIP of 1.0, and an ERA around 2.4. He's stuck with an organization right now that simply doesn't have room for him in the big leagues, but there is no doubt about it that this kid would be in the conversation for rookie of the year had he been pitching from april till now. Even though he is a righty, I fully expect the virtually unknown to give the Twins trouble today. The kid simply knows how to pitch, and hits his spots with extreme consistency.
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On the other side, I don't even need to say much about Pavano, the guy is having a fantastic year, and his success against the Rays earlier in the season leaves me no reason to expect anything but a decent start.
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I really see this being a 4-2 type of game, and quite frankly, it could go to either side. Take the UNDER as the 2nd best play on the board!
Red Dog Sports
Minnesota at Tampa Bay
Play: Under 8
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There are some 8.5 available but mostly 8's. Tampa Bay has played 8 unders, 2 overs and a push in their last 11 overall games. Carl Pavano starts for the Twins and he has given up just 2, 0, 2 and 3 runs in his last 4 starts.
Rookie Jeremy Hellickson starts for the Rays and he pitched well in Durham and it may take the Twins awhile to get used to his stuff. Hudson and Morneau are out for Minnesota and Joe Mauer is doubtful. Pena is doubtful is out for TB and Zobrist is questionable.
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In their last 10 these teams are getting good pitching, as their starters have an ERA of 1.92 and 2.30 while the bullpens are at 0.82 and 3.16.
The last three games in Tampa between these teams in 2009 reached 5, 7 and 8 runs.
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Tampa Bay just faced the Yankees at home and could have a letdown after a big series. They could relax and come out hitting well and back their rookie pitcher. I like our chances for an under with a few key players injured and with Carl Pavano on the hill for the Twins and the Tampa Bay rookie with good stuff.
Jack Jones
Tampa Bay Rays -115
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This is a solid price to back the Rays at home Monday. Tampa Bay sends their top prospect in Jeremy Hellickson to the mound tonight to make his major league debut. Hellickson should have no problem mowing down a Twins line-up that is going to be without Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, their two best hitters. Tampa Bay will want to win this one for Hellickson, and they should be able to get after Carl Pavano tonight to provide enough run support to get the job done.
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The Rays are a perfect 12-0 against the money line in home games after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Tampa Bay is also 25-8 against the money line after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less over the last 3 seasons. Conversely, Minnesota is 3-11 against the money line after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Rays are 18-6 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season. Tampa is 13-3 in their last 16 home games overall, and 76-36 in their last 112 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Rays Monday.
Nelly
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Travis Wood has provided a nice boost to the Cincinnati rotation with a 2.87 ERA in six starts. Wood has picked up just one win but the Reds are 4-2 in his six starts and only once did he allow as many as four earned runs. Wood has had a very successful start to his big league career despite making five of his six starts away from home and pitching in Pittsburgh tonight should not be an intimidating environment. The Reds have taken six of the last seven from the Pirates including beating Ross Ohlendorf twice this season. Ohlendorf was hit in the face in his last start but is expected to pitch tonight and in two of his last three starts he has failed to make it through the second inning. For the season Ohlendorf is 1-8 and he actually owns worse number at home than on the road. The Reds have been the far superior offensive team while batting .286 in the last ten games against right-handers. Pittsburgh is hitting just .227 in the past ten games and the Pirates are now 14-37 in the past 51 games. Even with a steep road favorite price, the Reds look like a solid play for Monday night as Pittsburgh has topped four runs just once in the past ten games. Take Cincy here.
Hollywood Sports
Nationals at Diamondbacks
Prediction: Over
Washington's Livan Hernandez is 7-7 with a solid 3.22 ERA on the season but comes off a rough outing where he failed to get out of the 5th inning against the Braves. While Hernandez has been outstanding at home in Washington this season where he has a 2.77 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .247 opponent's batting average -- these numbers jump to a 3.81 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and a .268 opponent's batting average when on the road. Arizona is hitting .280 at home against right-handers this season so they are in a nice position to score their share of runs tonight. Hernandez faces off against Rodrigo Lopez who is 5-9 with a 4.68 ERA this year. Lopez has not had good success against the Nationals in his career given his 4.91 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and .278 opponent's batting average in 18 1/3 innings of work. And Lopez does not enjoy a home field advantage as he sports a 4.84 ERA with an opponent's batting average of .280 as compared to his 4.50 ERA and .258 opponent's batting average when on the road this season. Washington is hitting .272 in their last ten games against right-handers so they should be in a good position to match the Arizona offense.
On a deeper level, an additional reason that we are concerned about both these starting pitchers pertains to a sabermetric statistic that suggests they both have been rather lucky this season: Batting Average for ground balls Put Into Play (GB BABIP) The baseline BABIP sabermetric is determined by this formula: (Hits - Homeruns)/(At-bats - Homeruns - strikeouts + sacrifice flies). The assumption behind the application of this sabermetric is that while pitchers control their strikeouts, walks and HRs allowed, it is defense and luck (and, we argue the skill of the batter when it comes to producing line-drives) that control what happens to the balls that hitters put into play. We look specifically at ground-ball BABIPs because defense and luck play the predominant role in which balls get through the infield. By comparing a pitcher's specific GB BABIP to his team's overall GB BABIP, we seek to neutralize the quality of the defense to identify (luck) discrepancies that deviate from the expected norm. This luck dynamic helps us to predict future pitching performances. Over the long run, pitchers with low GB BABIPs are expected to have this number rise while pitchers with high GB BABIPs are expected to see this number lower. Hernandez and Lopez have GB BABIPs of .183 and .228 each -- as compared to the respective Nationals and Diamondbacks' team GB BABIPs of .208 and .260. This suggests that Hernandez and Lopez hav been lucky regarding where the groundballs he is allowing in play are actually going. As their GB BABIPs moves up towards their team's mean, they should both see even worse results. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starters Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like GB BABIP, we get a better sense as to why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective regarding evaluating this pitcher's future.
Scott Spreitzer
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: San Diego Padres
I'm playing the Padres on Monday night. Los Angeles has made a lot of moves recently, but instead of bolstering the lineup and improving on their run-scoring, they're mired in a five game losing streak as they head home to Dodger Stadium. It's an incredibly important series that begins tonight, because they're eight games behind division leading San Diego, and also have the Giants and Rockies to climb over if they wish to reach the postseason. But one of the amazing stories of the season has been these Padres. Not only are they on top in the NL West, but they're 28-20 on the road. That's the top road record in the NL, and third-best in the Majors. Tonight, they'll send Clayton Richard to the mound as he looks to continue his dominance of the Dodgers. Richard is 2-0 in three career starts against L.A., sporting a 2.60 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and .193 BAA. Bad news for the home team tonight. After all, they have scored a grand total of just 20 runs in their last 11 games, less than 2 rpg. In fact, they have been held to two runs or less in nine of those 11 contests. The Dodgers will send Kuroda to the bump, but it doesn't matter to me who pitches for Joe Torre's squad. The bottom line is that no one is hitting, and Richard is not the "sweet elixir" for this lineup. We'll back the underdog SDG Padres on Monday night. Thanks!
VEGAS EXPERTS
Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona hosts the Washington Nationals at 9:40 PM ET tonight. The Sportsbooks have this total at an extremely high 9.5 runs, which is way too high of a number for tonight’s matchup! Here at Vegas Experts we predict this total to end at 7 runs. Hernandez is on the mound for the Nationals and he has been pitching excellent. In his last three starts he had a very low 2.33 ERA and 1.086 WHIP. On the other side of tonight’s pitching matchup, Arizona sends Lopez to the mound who has been pitching decent and is due for a good starting performance! Over the last three seasons, these teams have had six matchups at Arizona and out of those six games; four have gone under the total! Play on the UNDER!
Play on: The UNDER
Black Widow
1* on Milwaukee Brewers -116
We'll roll with the Brewers who have the better starter on the mound tonight in Yovani Gallardo. The righty is quietly having a great season, going 9-5 with a 2.77 ERA including 130 strikeouts in 120.1 innings. Gallardo has been extremely effective on the road, going 5-1 with a 2.06 ERA in 10 starts away from home. Randy Wells is 5-8 with a 4.10 ERA this year for Chicago. The Cubs have basically packed it in, losers of 5 straight games to drop to 46-59 this year. Wells is 0-8 (-11.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season, with the Cubs losing in this spot by 3.9 runs/game. Take Milwaukee on the Money Line.
Steve Janus
Kansas City Royals vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics -1½
I am taking the A's to not only beat the Royals on Monday, but I have them covering the run line and winning this game by at least two runs. The A's have Trevor Cahill on the mound, and he has been rock solid all season with a 10-4 record and 2.93 ERA. Cahill is coming off a great showing at Texas in his last start where he allowed no runs in 8 innings of work. The Royals on the other hand have Brian Bannister on the mound, and he has a 7.10 ERA on the road.Bannister is 0-3 in his last three starts, and in each game the Royals have lost by at least two runs. Bet the A's -1.5!