SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PRESEASON
N.Y. Jets (0-1 SU and ATS) at Baltimore (1-0 SU and ATS)
Mark Sanchez is set to make his first NFL start and he’ll do so against one of the best defenses in the league as the Jets visit M&T Bank stadium for a preseason clash with the Ravens.
Sanchez came off the bench in last week’s 23-20 home loss to the Rams as a three-point favorite, going 3-for-4 for 88 yards and leading the Jets to a touchdown in his only series. The rookie, who is battling Kellen Clemens for the starting job, gets the start tonight and will get the majority of first-half reps, according to new coach Rex Ryan. Ryan, the former longtime Ravens defensive coordinator, said Clemens will also play in the first half, with rookie Erik Ainge once again getting most of the second-half action. No. 4 QB Chris Pizzotti, re-signed this week, will get one series in the fourth quarter.
The Ravens had possibly the most impressive Week 1 performance, blanking the Redskins 23-0 as a three-point home favorite, outgaining Washington 500-196, including 399-140 through the air. Coach Jim Harbaugh said QB Joe Flacco (9-for-15, 103 yards last week) will start tonight and play into the middle of the second quarter and maybe the entire first half, depending on the number of snaps. Troy Smith will replace Flacco, with John Beck and/or rookie Drew Willy finishing up.
Despite last week’s loss, New York is still 7-3 SU and (5-4-1 ATS) in preseason play since the final game of 2006. That includes three consecutive SU and ATS victories in true road games, all as an underdog. Additionally, the Jets are 4-1-1 ATS since 2004 when coming off a SU loss in exhibition play, but they’ve lost back-to-back Week 2 preseason contests (0-2 ATS).
Baltimore ended a three-game SU and ATS preseason losing skid with last week’s win, but is still just 3-5 SU and ATS in August since 2007, including 2-3 SU and ATS at home and 2-4 ATS as a favorite. Like New York, the Ravens have also dropped consecutive Week 2 preseason games both SU and ATS, both at home.
The under is 12-4 in Baltimore’s last 16 exhibition contests, including 4-1 under Harbaugh.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (67-57) at Colorado (70-54)
The top two teams in the race for the National League wild card conclude a four-game set at Coors Field when the Giants’ send left-hander Barry Zito (8-11, 4.26 ERA) to the mound opposite Rockies right-hander Jason Marquis (14-8, 3.58).
Colorado rallied to win Sunday’s contest 4-2 and has won two of the first three in this series to move three games ahead of San Francisco in the chase for the wild card. Colorado has won 13 of the last 18 meetings with the Giants dating back to last season.
San Francisco is 4-2 in its last six games against right-handed starters, but just 3-8 in its last 11 road games against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Rockies are impressive runs of 50-23 overall, 9-3 at home and 7-0 when wrapping up a four-game series.
Zito has a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts and blanked the Reds on Wednesday on two hits over six innings, getting a no-decision in the Giants’ 1-0 win. San Francisco is 5-1 in Zito’s last six starts, and he’s held the opposition to two earned runs or less in six of his last seven outings.
Zito shut out the Rockies for seven innings on May 3, allowing just two hits in the 1-0 victory. Going back to 2006, the Rockies are just 2-6 when facing Zito. However, the former Cy Young winner is just 4-7 with a 4.52 ERA in 13 road outings this season.
Marquis allowed three runs on nine hits in six innings of a 5-4 win in Washington on Wednesday as the Rockies improved to 16-8 behind the veteran pitcher this season, including 6-3 in his last nine starts. Marquis has faced the Giants twice this season, giving up just one run in a complete-game 5-1 win on May 2, but getting hit hard five days later in Colorado, allowing seven runs (five earned) in six innings of an 8-3 loss.
With Marquis on the hill, the Rockies are on runs of 12-5 overall, 5-2 at home and 5-1 against the N.L. West. He’s 6-4 with a 3.86 ERA at Coors Field.
With Zito starting, the Giants are on “under” runs of 6-1 overall, 5-0 on the road and 5-2 on four days of rest, and as a team they have stayed below the total in nine of 12 against right-handers. When Marquis pitches, Colorado is on “under” streaks of 11-5-1 overall, 4-0 on Mondays and 4-1 against the N.L. West, but as a team, the Rockies have topped the total in nine of 16 overall and eight of 10 against winning teams.
Finally, the under is 5-1-1 in Zito’s seven career starts against Colorado.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (65-58) at L.A. Angels (74-48)
Division leaders square off in the first of a three-game set in Southern California when Tigers’ ace Justin Verlander (13-7, 3.29 ERA) opposes the Angels’ Jered Weaver (13-4, 3.83) at Angel Stadium.
Detroit dropped two of three in Oakland over the weekend, including Sunday’s 9-4 loss when the A’s sealed the game with a four-run eighth inning. Detroit is on slides of 8-22 on the road and 8-20 on Mondays, but it has won five of its last six series openers.
Los Angeles just wrapped up a 10-game road trip with Sunday’s 8-3 loss at Toronto, going 6-4 on the trip, but just 1-3 in the last four. Despite the mini slump, the Angels remain on a plethora of positive streaks, including 38-16 overall, 68-33 at home against winning teams, 14-5 against the A.L. Central and 4-1 on Mondays.
Against Detroit, the Angels have won 46 of 65 overall and 27 of 35 in Southern California, though the clubs have split six meetings this year, with the host going 4-2.
The Tigers have won five of Verlander’s last seven outings, but dropped a 3-1 decision to the Mariners on Wednesday, yielding all three runs on six hits in eight innings. He was magnificent in his last roadie, blanking the Red Sox on four hits over eight innings of a 2-0 win. However, he’s just 6-5 with a 4.27 ERA in 14 road outings this season.
Verlander faced these Angels on June 5 and blanked them over eight innings on four hits but didn’t get any support, losing 2-1. Six weeks earlier, he made his only career start at Angel Stadium and got destroyed, allowing seven runs on nine hits over five innings, but Detroit rallied for a 12-10 win. It’s the Tigers’ only win in Verlander’s five career starts against Los Angeles.
The Angels have won eight of Weaver’s last nine outings and the young hurler is 8-1 at home this season with a 2.66 ERA. On Wednesday he threw a complete-game shutout at Cleveland, winning 3-0. Back on April 21 he gave up three runs on seven hits in seven innings of a 4-3 home win over the Tigers. With Weaver on the hill, Los Angeles is on runs of 26-9 at home, 6-0 against the A.L. Central and 5-1 in series openers.
With Verlander on the bump, Detroit has topped the total in 10 of 11 Monday starts and 17 of 25 series openers. But as a team, the Tigers are on “under” runs of 4-2-1 overall, 15-8-1 on the road and 14-5-2 against right-handed starters.
It’s been all “overs” lately for the Angels and Weaver, including 10-2 in his last 12 starts, 5-1 when he pitches at home and 4-0 in his last four series openers. Also, the Angels have gone over the posted number in 38 of 55 overall, 24 of 33 at home and 14 of 18 at home against teams with losing road records. Conversely, the under is 10-5 in the last 15 meetings between these clubs (3-3 this year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
DUNKEL
Detroit at LA Angels
The look to build on their 6-0 record in Jered Weaver's last 6 starts with the total set from 7 to 8 1/2 runs. Los Angeles is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120)
MONDAY, AUGUST 24
Game 951-952: Philadelphia at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 15.626; NY Mets (Parnell) 15.796
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-280); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+250); Over
Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.860; Washington (Balester) 13.859
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-185); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-185); Under
Game 955-956: San Francisco at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 15.344; Colorado (Marquis) 16.295
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-175); Under
Game 957-958: Tampa Bay at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 15.144; Toronto (Halladay) 14.505
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Toronto (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+130); Under
Game 959-960: Chicago White Sox at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Garcia) 14.789; Boston (Buchholz) 15.916
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-175); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-175); Under
Game 961-962: Cleveland at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Sowers) 15.041; Kansas City (Meche) 15.232
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-115); Under
Game 963-964: Baltimore at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 14.940; Minnesota (Baker) 15.692
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-220); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-220); Under
Game 965-966: Detroit at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 14.517; LA Angels (Weaver) 14.855
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); Under
Game 967-968: Oakland at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mazzaro) 15.545; Seattle (Snell) 15.250
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+125); Over
NFL
Game 431-432: NY Jets at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 120.141; Baltimore 124.631
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4 1/2; 28
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 32 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3); Under
Doc's Sports
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New York Jets vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: New York Jets +3
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I think that this gives means more to the Jets, as their new coach spent the last few seasons with the Ravens. Coach Rex Ryan admitted he was disappointed when he did not get the Ravens head coaching job last season. He will want to make a good showing in this game and the Ravens could care less. Baltimore looked real good last week, but Coach John Harbaugh went just 1-3 in 2008 straight-up and against the spread in the preseason.
Scott Spreitzer
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Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
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LAA is back home where Jered Weaver has been almost untouchable. The Angel righty had a tough run for a few starts, but he jumped right back on track last time out and now toes the home rubber where he's 8-1 in 13 starts with a 2.76 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and .211 BAA. The Halos are 11-2 in Weaver's home starts this season, and they're averaging 5.8 rpg against righthanders, overall. The lineup will face Justin Verlander on Monday. The Tiger righty was clobbered in his only career start at this venue earlier this season. He's made three starts (two bad) against the Angels over the last two seasons, allowing 13 earned runs and 30 base runners in 18 2/3 IP, for a 6.26 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Finally, while the Angels have crushed righties at home, Detroit has been rather pathetic in road night games against righthanders. The Tigers are 8-22 in this situation, scoring an average of just 3.84 rpg.
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Play on: LA Angels
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox
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The Red Sox look very vulnerable at this price considering they have the disadvantage of coming off the Sunday Night game and also considering their poor record when Clay Buchholz is on the mound. They've lost 11 of 14 times when Buchholz has started as a favorite since the start of the '08 season, including a rocky outing a little over a year ago vs. Chicago, who is 14-7 this season when coming off a one run loss. Buchholz also has a 1-9 TSR vs. teams with a winning record.
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Play on: Chicago White Sox
Vernon Croy
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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The Jays have the superior pitcher on the mound here Monday night with Roy Halladay (13-6, 2.78 ERA). Halladay has faced the Rays 4 times already this season with an ERA of just 2.10 against them and I look for him to have a solid outing at home Monday night. The Rays are just 0-4 in their last 4 road games and Halladay has allowed just 2 earned runs in his last 2 starts against the Rays while lasting an average of 8.5 innings per start. Jeff Niemann (11-5, 3.71) has lit up by the Jays back on July.26 allowing 9 hits and 5 earned runs over 6.7 innings and I look for the Jays to hit him hard again at home Monday night. Take the Toronto Blue Jays as my MLB Free Play for Monday night.
Frank Jordan
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Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals
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Cleveland and Kansas City had high expectations at the beginning of the season but have fallen on hard times and are each at least 15 games under .500 and looking toward 2010. Gil Meche was great in 2008, but can't seem to find the same magic in 2009 as he is 6-9 with an ERA closer to 5 than 4. Look for Meche to continue to win in August which he is 2-0 in after spending a month on the DL. Play Kansas City
BIG AL
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Detroit Tigers vs. LAA Angels
Play: LAA Angels
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Jered Weaver must have given his Anaheim teammates and fans quite a scare when the ace righthander completely fell apart in Baltimore against the Orioles on August 14. But he came back in his next start, which was also on the road - this time in Cleveland - to not only pitch much better, but in fact he threw a complete game shutout, allowing Angels players and managers alike to breathe a huge sigh of relief. Now he comes back home, where he does his best work by far (8-1 with a 2.76 ERA in 13 Anaheim starts) to face the Tigers and their #1 pitcher, Justin Verlander. Despite pitching well for the most part in his recent outings, Verlander has only one victory in his last four starts. Verlander has five lifetime starts against the Angels and the Tigers are 1-4 in those starts. By contrast, Weaver has started against the Tigers a total of four times in his career and Los Angeles has won three of the four. One of the biggest differences between these two teams is how they perform at home and away as Los Angeles has almost identical winning records regardless of whether it plays in Anaheim or away, whereas Detroit has been great at home (40-20) and horrible on the road (25-38). Take the Angels.
Tom Freese
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San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: under
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San Francisco is 9-2-1 UNDER their last 12 games vs. righty starters and they are 12-5-1 UNDER off a loss. The Giants are 6-1 UNDER in the last 7 starts made by Barry Zito. The Giants are 11-5-1 UNDER as underdogs of +110 to +150 and they are 5-1-1 UNDER in the last 7 starts made by Zito vs. the Rockies. Colorado is 4-0-1 UNDER off a win and they are 4-1-1 UNDER their last 6 games overall. The Rockies are 4-0 UNDER in 4 starts made by Jason Marquis on Monday and they are 11-5-1 in the last 17 starts made by Marquis. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Craig Trapp
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -1½
If your book offers it take -2.5 at even money that is how strong I like this game. Lee has been great for PHI ever since arriving going 4-0 with a .82 era. Even better he won the 3 starts in CLE so 7 straight starts and all but two were blowouts and covering the R/L. PHI has been hitting well too so even if he would give up 2-3 runs we still will get a cover. Parnell starts for NYM and hopes to bounce back after allowing 9 ER's in only 3 innings last week. Also the lineup is banged up and is struggling to score. Easy blowout winner here. PHI 7 - NYM 2
Rob Vinciletti
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Under 7½
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This game fits a big system that plays on the under when a home team is off a home favored win where the total is 8 or less and the opponent is off a home favored loss at -140 or higher.This system has cashed the last 5 times and barely averages 5 runs per game.Best of all is the pitching matchup between Halladay and Niemann.Roy Halladay has been awesome vs Tampa this year.In his last 2 starts he has pitched 17 innings allowing just 2 runs.He has a fine 2.89 home era and has gone under in his last 3 starts vs the Rays.For Tampa J.Niemann pitches tonight and he is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball this year.He has a solid 3.71 era this year,playing in the strongest division in baseball.This has been an under series with a 5 of the 6 games here playing under the total.Tampa has gone under 6 of 8 times as a road dog in this range.Go with the under 7.5 runs tonight in the Jays at Rays game.
JIM FEIST
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TAMPA BAY RAYS / TORONTO BLUE JAYS
TAKE UNDER
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It isn't too often when you get two excellent pitchers matching up in the same contest. That's just what we get here on Monday as the Rays travel north of the border to take on the Blue Jays. The Rays will send Jeff Niemann to the mound who is having a fantastic season. Niemann is 11-5 on the year with a 3.71 ERA. Niemann has already faced the Jays twice this season and is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA. The Jays will counter with their Ace, Roy Halladay. Halladay is having another solid season with a 13-6 record and 2.78 ERA. Halladay has faced the Rays 29 times in his season with a 3.51 ERA. Good pitching usually dominates good hitting and that's just what we look for here on Monday with two of the AL's best on the mound. Take the UNDER.
DAVE COKIN
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NEW YORK JETS / BALTIMORE RAVENS
TAKE UNDER
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New Jets coach Rex Ryan cannot be pleased with how poorly his defense performed last week. He should have his troops ready to stop a Baltimore offense that he's very familiar with. I can't see NY having much success moving the ball here, either, so playing tonight's Jets-Ravens clash to stay Under the number looks like a decent move.
Brad Diamond Sports
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Play: Philadelphia -1½
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The Phillies continued to pound the Mets yesterday up in New York and should do the same today behind their ace lefty Cliff Lee. Since his exodus from the American League, the former Cy Young award winner has not lost and has been the perfect addition to the Philadelphia staff with Cole Hamels going in the tank. Over the last 8 meetings the Phillies have won 7 games versus the Mets, while championing 20 of 26 wins in Monday action.
JR TIPS
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White Sox at Red Sox
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The Boston Red Sox (70-53) dropped two of three against New York over the weekend to fall 7 1/2 games behind the first-place Yankees in the AL East after they lost 8-4 on Sunday after Josh Beckett allowed five home runs in eight innings.Boston will play the White Sox tonight who have won four times in their last 13 games at Fenway Park and is 2 1/2 games behind the first-place Detroit Tigers in the AL Central. The White Sox (63-61) played their last three series against the worst teams in each division of the AL but went 5-4 over that stretch and they dropped two of three against Baltimore over the weekend, losing 5-4 on Sunday.Chicago hit .219 over the series and will face Clay Buchholz (2-3, 3.99 ERA) who will try to take advantage of Chicago's hitting struggles.Buchholz is coming off a third consecutive impressive start after he allowed one run in six innings to beat Toronto 6-1 on Wednesday.It was the right-hander's first victory since his season debut July 17 and came after he lost his previous two starts despite having allowed three earned runs over 13 innings as the Red Sox failed to score while he was on the mound in either outing.Chicago will start Jose Contreras (5-11, 5.13), who recorded his first win in more than a month after allowing one run and three hits over seven innings in defeating Kansas City 4-2 on Wednesday. The right-hander had gone 0-4 with a 7.62 ERA in his previous six starts, failing to make it out of the fifth four times.Contreras is 3-5 with an 8.82 ERA against the Red Sox in his career and has a 10.26 ERA in seven appearances at Fenway Park and he wont have a chance tonight against this hot Boston offense despite facing sabatha last night who has knocked Contereras by the fifth inning the last 8 times they faced him.
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TAKE BOSTON -1½