Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Seattle Mariners -112
Bottom Line: Look for Ian Snell to build off of a great start in Detroit as the M's return home from a 6-game road trip with revenge on their minds against a team team they have owned (6-3 against Oakland this season). In fact, the Athletics are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings and 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Seattle. On top of that, they are 1-8 in Mazzaro's last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the M's.
Nite Owl Sports
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New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens
Pick: 3 units: Over 32.5
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We like the Over as the best value on this game, with the totals line at a low 32.5. But it's more than just a line value play, as Ravens unexpectedly opened up the offense in their opener, a 23-0 win over wash, throwing a ridiculous 54 passes (out of the 54, 15 by #1 QB Joe Flacco and 30 by back-up Troy Smith) and completing 28 of them, for 400 YP. Jets on the other hand, despite losing their opener to the lowly SL Lambs, got some pretty good play from their two QBs, with Erik Ainge throwing for 148 YP on 10-17 and one TD (and a rating of 107) and heralded #1 draft choice, USC product Mark Sanchez, racking up 88 YP on 3-4, and a QB rating of 117. Moreover, Jets allowed 193 YR on 29 carries for a ridiculous 6.65 YPC to the Lambs, not considered a very good running team. So while we realize that it's risky to rely too much on player and team stats week to week in the pre-season, we also believe that the above, including the over-friendly totals line of 32.5, gives us a good recipe for a solid play on the over -- good enough for a 3 unit play on the over at 32.5 or less (make it two units on the over at 33).
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While Balt appears to be a popular play, based largely on their 23-0 home rout of Wash in week one, that plus the fact that NY Jets lost their opener LW is a good enough reason in itself to stay off of Ravens in this game. In addition, we don’t know how Ravens’ HC Harbaugh will react to LW’s blowout win, as he has never had a blowout win in NFL-X, this being just his second year at the helm in Balt. And in LY’s two home games, Ravens were actually pretty unimpressive, losing both SU, 15-23 to Minny and 9-10 to Atlanta. But on the other hand, it’s hard to get excited about backing a team (Jets) that coughed up nearly 200 yards rushing LW to the St L Lambs.
Yankee Capper
Cleveland/Kansas City Over 9
New York Jets +3
Pigskin Prophet
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NEW YORK JETS vs BALTIMORE RAVENS
Take BALTIMORE RAVENS
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The NY Jets have a new coach in Rex Ryan (DC of the Ravens), facing his old team here. He has been vocal in camp, making more bold promises than a presidential candidate. They didn't look so hot in the opener, giving up 193 rushing yards in a 23-20 home loss to the rebuilding Rams. The QB rotation is suspect with rookie Mark Sanchez, Kellen Clemens, Erik Ainge and rookie Chris Pizzotti (Harvard). "Before halftime, both Sanchez and Clemens will be in there," Ryan said. "Is one of them going to play substantially more than the other one? That could happen. Kellen had the majority of the reps in the first preseason game. I could see Sanchez getting the majority of the reps in this one." Erik Ainge will play the majority of the second half. Rookie Chris Pizzotti will get one series. Pizzotti was cut the day after the preseason opener and re-signed this week. Ainge dazzled in the opener, 10-of-17 for 148 yards, 1 TD and no picks. OC Brian Sch! ottenheimer wants to revert to the 2006 offense, which kept opponents off-balance with a myriad of formations, shifts and personnel packages, expertly orchestrated by Chad Pennington. Schottenheimer scaled back in '07 when Clemens replaced Pennington, and he was forced to make it ridiculously simple last season because of Favre's late arrival. Jets offensive line has problems: Alan Faneca (finger) and Damien Woody (head) practiced, but will not play. C Nick Mangold (knee) practiced and is "probable." Ryan said he will likely play, but wasn't sure for how long. On defense, NT Kris Jenkins (calf) didn't practice and is out. Clemens, Sanchez and Erik Ainge make up a very inexperienced QB rotation...and what about that awful run defense in the opener? Baltimore (1-0 SU/ATS) is off a laugher, a 23! -0 blowout of the Redskins. After QB Joe Flacco, they have QBs! Troy Sm ith, Todd Bouman and John Beck. The starters will play into the second quarter and perhaps a half. Injuries to left tackle Jared Gaither (shoulder), left guard Ben Grubbs (ankle) and backup tackle Oniel Cousins (left leg) have caused some major reshuffling on the offensive line. Wide receiver Mark Clayton (hamstring injury) is hurting as is TE Todd Heap (back). Probably not much scoring: Baltimore is 4-1 Under the total the last 5 years in Week 2 of the preseason.
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Projected Score: Ravens 17, Jets 10
ATS Consultants
San Francisco Giants/Colorado Rockies UNDER 9.5
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Crucial game tonight in the National League wild card race as the Rockies host the Giants in the finale of a 4 game set. Colorado leads San Fran by 3 games in the Wild Card chase.
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Barry Zito (8-11, 4.26) is finally pitching like the former Cy Young winner he is. He’s been a brutal disappointment in his Giants career so far, but has really turned it around of late. He’s 2-1 with a 2.51 ERA in his last 5 starts and is beginning to compliment Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain well in that rotation.
Jason Marquis (14-8, 3.58) has been great as a free agent pickup this season for the Rockies. Colorado could not have expected him to be an All Star and win 14 games. He’s 2-2 with a 3.94 ERA in his last 5 starts.
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Expect a low scoring game tonight in what is somewhat a must win for the Giants.
Freddy Wills
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
Okay, Halladay has not been winning mostly due to the run support, but he comes off arguably his worst start going 5IP and giving up 4ER. He has given up 4ER or more 5 times this year and what has he done after that? He's come back with a 2.13 ERA in the 5 starts following combined. His worst start was 7 IP 3 ER following a performance of 4+ ER. I expect much of the same against the Rays who are traveling from Tampa Bay after striking out 15 times yesterday in a 4-0 loss to the Rangers. Expect Halladay to throw a solid game against the Rays in his 5th start against themt his year. He has 2.10 ERA against TB this year, but TOR is 1-3 in those losses he got 5 total runs of support. He still gives his team a great chance to win and I like the Blue Jays chances at home against Niemann. Niemann has a 4.42 ERA away compared to his 2.67 ERA at home. BB's and the long ball have been what hurt him. Blue Jays if you remember took Josh Becket deep 3HR just a short while ago so why can't they beat up Niemann here? Blue Jays are #20 in BB, but #7 in HR and Rogers Centre is ranked #7 for most HR hit per game at a ball park. The Rays are struggling in their last 5 games with a .234avg and 3.72 r/0 vs. RHP in their last 5 while the Jays are hitting .293 scoring 4.78 r/9 in their last 5 vs. RHP. Rays are also 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. RH starter now facing the best RH starter in the AL in my opinion.
Doc’s Sports
Take Seattle Mariners -120 over Oakland A's
The Mariners open a 10-game homestand with a 3-game set against Oakland before KC comes calling. Both of those clubs are the bottom feeders of their respective divisions. Ian Snell is looking to build on his first win with Seattle since coming over from the Pirates. This is a great opportunity for the Mariners to improve its position in the standings. The price is right!
Jeff Benton
N.Y. Jets at BALTIMORE -3
Got back on the free-play winning track Sunday with a solid 4♦ underdog winner on the Rangers. I’m now on a 30-17 roll with free plays, including 4-1 over the last five days. For Monday, it’s back to the NFL as I’ll lay the small price with the Ravens against the Jets.
I know a lot is being made about New York coach Rex Ryan returning to Baltimore, where he coordinated the NFL’s best defense for a decade. And I’m quite sure Ryan wants to make a statement to his former organization and win this otherwise meaningless game tonight. But you better believe the Ravens – and especially their defensive players – want to show Ryan that they’re getting along just fine without him.
Heck, they did as much 10 days ago when they not only shut out the Redskins 23-0, they completely mauled them, allowing just 196 yards of total offense. Not only that, but Baltimore’s normally pedestrian offense exploded for 500 yards against Washington, and much of that was with second-string QB Troy Smith running the show.
Tonight, we’re going to see more of Joe Flacco and the Ravens’ number-ones on both sides of the ball. That’s not a good thing for this rebuilding Jets squad (which lost 23-20 to St. Louis at home in Week 1). It’s especially not good for rookie QB Mark Sanchez, who is going to learn REAL fast that the Rams’ defense and the Ravens’ defense are two entirely different beasts. Seriously, you think Ray Lewis and Co. don’t want to rattle this kid’s cage a few times tonight and teach him what NFL football is really like?
Bottom line: I expect Sanchez to struggle big time tonight, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see at least one pick-six. At the same time, I like Baltimore’s QB rotation of Flacco, Smith and John Beck a lot more than the Jets’ trio of passers that include two rookies (Sanchez and Erik Ainge, who will play most if not all of the second half) and a veteran (Kellen Clemens) with limited NFL experience who has yet to prove he belongs in this league. It probably won’t be as easy as last week against Washington, but the Ravens should once again get the job done comfortably. Lay the points.
3♦ BALTIMORE
Michael Cannon
Tampa Bay +120 at TORONTO
Take the Rays for the road win over the Blue Jays.
Roy Halladay will get the start for Toronto and he’s 13-6 with a 2.78 ERA. But the right-hander is just 1-2 with a 2.10 ERA against the Rays in four starts this year.
Tampa will counter with rookie Jeff Niemann, who is 11-5 with a 3.71 ERA. The right-hander is the league leader in wins for rookies and has already outdueled Halladay in a 4-1 win at Toronto on June 29. Niemann allowed just one run over 7 1-3 innings in that game.
Tampa has owned Toronto, winning nine of 12 meetings this year, including four of six at Rogers Centre, and 20 of 30 since the start of last season.
This is a great return on a team that has had such good success against Toronto.
Take the Rays as they grab the road win.
3♦ TAMPA BAY
Chris Jordan
Oakland +110 at SEATTLE
Take the road team, as the Athletics cash the easy ticket over the M's tonight.
Not sure what has gotten into rookie right-hander Vin Mazzaro, but after going 0-8 with a 7.22 ERA in his last 10 starts, he’s turned in a 2-0 mark and 3.52 ERA over his last three outings. Granted, two of those games came against Kansas City and Baltimore, but both were on the road. And what might have been his best performance was his last time out, against the Yankees, who he held to one earned run over five innings.
I’d much rather side with Mazzaro than Ian Snell, who is 3-9 with a 5.60 ERA this season. Opponents are batting .324 against him at Safeco Field, and with the team returning from an East Coast trip (Detroit and Cleveland), I don’t know how much run support he’s going to get.
Nothing big, that’s why it’s a comp play, but I will take the road pup tonight.
2♦ ATHLETICS
Scott Delaney
In another National League Wild Card showdown, I am taking the Rockies again, this time on the Run Line, with Jason Marquis over Barry Zito.
After a win over Tim Lincecum, you can expect the Wild Card-leading Rockies to finish up their series with the Giants with a vengeance. Two straight comeback wins for Colorado, and you best believe the momentum is clearly the most dangerous second-place team in baseball right now.
Forget the Wild Card, the Rockies are thinking they can overtake once-seemingly invincible Dodgers in the National League West, and with confidence like that, anything is possible.
Remember, this is the same team that is just two years removed from advancing to the World Series, and a team that is stinging from not even making the postseason last year.
I am listing both pitchers, as Marquis turned in a 2.77 ERA in his last two wins whi allowing three runs over six innings in last Wednesday’s 5-4 victory at Washington. The right-hander has a 2.30 ERA in eight career starts against the Giants.
With Zito, well, he’s not exactly the best pitcher to support. He’s endured nine starts this season that he has gotten no runs of support – including two in a row for the left-hander. Zito has received a league-low 2.9 runs per outing.
Lay the home run line tonight, as this is an easy blowout win.
1♦ ROCKIES
Jake Timlin
Take the Rockies as they wrap up the four game series against the Giants a huge winner.
Winners of 50 of their last 72 games I look for the Rockies to continue their winning today as they pad their Wild Card lead. Helping the Rockies to the series win will be 14 game winner Jason Marquis who has been solid over his last two starts going 2-0 with an ERA of 2.77. More importantly it’s Marquis who carries a 2.30 ERA in eight career starts against the Giants, including a 5-1 complete game win over San Francisco back in May.
Countering for San Francisco will be Zito who while pitching much better lately the lefty is still 8-11 with an ERA of 4.26 on the year. Well given that Zito is a fly ball pitcher pitching is the league biggest park I see the lefty struggling tonight.
Flat out, with Colorado one night removed from beating Lincecum I see them taking care of business once again tonight as they rough up Zito for the blowout win.
1♦ Colorado Rockies -1½
Craig Davis
Boston send Clay Buchholz to the hill tonight as one of the hottest pitchers on staff over the last month. He's allowed just four earned runs in his last three starts (19 innings) against the Yankees, Tigers and Blue Jays and has finally seen his season ERA dip below 4 for the first time this season. After losing two of three to the Yankees over the weekend, you can bet Boston is going to realize how important their lead in the Wild Card race now is. This is no longer about winning the AL East, but more about making the playoffs and hoping to get some of their pitching back. Chicago, meanwhile, is still battling the Tigers for the Central division lead, but they'd love to see anyone but the Red Sox right now, having dropped 11 of the last 14 meetings with the boys from Beantown. Jose Contreras has been below average in his recent starts and it's not a good thing when he pitches on the road. His lack of control and velocity combined with the Red Sox hunger for a much-needed win will result in a big Boston win tonight.
2♦ BOSTON -1½