Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August 26

Marc Lawrence

San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: San Diego Padres

When Tyson Ross and the Padres take on Brandon McCarthy and the Diamondbacks in Arizona Monday evening, San Diego will take the field knowing Ross' 4-1 mark with a 1.52 ERA on the road is diametrically opposed to his 0-4 record with a 3.65 ERA at home this season. With McCarthy 7-12 in his career team starts during August, including 0-4 his last four, look for the Padres to capture the opener there tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Diego.

Matt Fargo

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Houston Astros

The hottest team in baseball may surprise many as it is the Chicago White Sox which have won eight of their last 10 games including two of three against the Rangers over the weekend. The pitching has been the key as Chicago has allowed three runs or less in seven of those eight victories including giving up just two runs on Saturday and Sunday against Texas. They have been great in the role of the underdog but the White Sox are 7-19 in their last 26 games as a favorite. The offense remains an inconsistent issue though and I see it struggling again tonight. Andre Rienzo takes the hill for his sixth career start and so far, he has been very solid in his first MLB season. He has a 3.59 ERA through those five starts with four of those being quality performances. All four of those were on the road however where he has a 2.88 ERA in those four games while his lone home start resulted in a 6.75 ERA as he allowed four runs in 5.1 innings against the Twins. Overall, Rienzo has a 1.32 WHIP which is not very good. After taking the first two games against Toronto, the Astros lost on Sunday as they were handcuffed by Mark Buehrle who has suddenly been pitching outstanding. Since suffering through a six-game losing streak, Houston is 6-6 over its last 12 games which is certainly average but a .500 record as big underdogs means profits and we will be backing the Astros again behind Brett Oberholtzer. He is coming off the worst start in his short career but when that worst start was a quality outing, you know things have been good. He allowed three runs in six innings against the Angels and his ERA actually went up where it is now 2.91 through four starts to go along with a 1.09 WHIP. Houston is 3-1 in those games including a perfect 2-0 on the road where it has scored 18 runs in the process.

Jimmy Boyd

Toronto Blue Jays -110

Phil Hughes has been horrible for the Yankees. He has a 4-12 record in 24 starts and he is getting worse as the season progresses. In his last three starts Hughes has a 4.96 ERA, a 1.408 WHIP and a 0-2 record. While New York has been on a bit of a run, the reality is they are a team batting .239 on the road and scoring four runs per game.

Toronto has averaged 4.9 runs per game at home this season. They are coming off a much needed win against Houston as they return home to take on the Yankees. New York lost two of their last three games in the series at Tampa, and now they have to travel for another road series against Toronto. Dickey has 74 strikeouts in 82 innings pitched at home this season and in his last three starts he has posted a 1.091 WHIP. I like Toronto to pick up back-to-back wins by beating the Yankees today.

Jeffrey Brandes

Reds vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 8

Mike Leake was cruising in his last start on Wednesday, retiring the first 10 D-backs he faced. A four-run fifth made things interesting, though, as Leake went on to give up six hits in six innings of work. In his last 3 starts he has a 4.50 ERA.

Tyler Lyons will start Monday in place of the injured Jake Westbrook. The rookie southpaw was recalled last week and pitched two scoreless innings of relief Tuesday. He is 2-4 with a 5.35 ERA in seven big league starts this year. He has a 6.52 ERA in his last 3 starts.

Rob Vinciletti

Giants vs. Rockies
Play: Over 10½

This game fits a solid system that plays on home favorites with a total that is 10 or higher if they are off a road favored win, and are taking on an opponent like the Giants that are off a home dog win. Colorado has won 5 of 6 at home vs San Francisco and 12 of 16 as a home favorite in this range. The Giants are 0-3 on the road with a total that is 10 to 10.5 and 1-4 as a road dog in this range. They have B. Zitio going and He has lost 9 of 10 on the road with a 9.50 road era. In his last 3 starts Zito has an era over 10. He will face Colorado right J. Nicasio who has a 3.11 era in his last 3 starts and 3.95 at Coors this year. Loom for Colorado to take the opener here tonight.

Ray Monohan

Reds vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 8½

In this critical series between NL Central contenders there should be a lot of runs scored in the opener. This is because Reds starter Mike Leake has been hit hard by St. Louis throughout his career (ERA over 5) while Cardinals starter Tyler Lyons has given up 4 runs or more in six straight starts (and doesn't pitch deep). These are two good hitting teams and neither have their ace on the hill tonight so I don’t know why the totals isn’t higher. This is a great chance to steal some value on a Monday where there isn’t a ton of action to choose from.

Doug Upstone

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

This is a pitching play tonight in Toronto. The Yankees Phil Hughes has been brutal this year and appears to be getting worse. Opposite Jays starter R.A. Dickey is much better when the Rogers Centre is closed which it should be tonight with so much rain in the forecast. Blue Jays have lots of offense even without Jose Bautista in the lineup and will club Hughes to victory.

Art Aronson

Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Play: Under 9

Phil Hughes (4-12, 4.88 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Hughes went six frames vs. the Jays on Tuesday, earning a no-decision for his effort, allowing two earned runs off seven hits with two walks. Despite the decent start, Hughes for the most part has been a disappointment this year, having not won an outing since July 2nd and going 0-5 in the process. That said, the one place where he's shown to be the most adept this season has been on the road, bringing his respectable 3-3, 3.67 ERA record into Toronto to throw opposite RA Dickey (9-12, 4.49 ERA) who was unfortunate to get saddled with a loss vs. the Yanks on Wednesday despite going the distance. The veteran would allow four earned runs off six hits with two walks in the complete game, striking out nine in the process. Dickey has shown flashes of his old brilliance at times this year and with a revenge-rematch on deck tonight, has a big opportunity to pad his stats. Five of these teams last seven in the series have indeed stayed below the posted number and I expect the opener of this three-game set to follow suit; consider a second look at the "under" in this matchup.

Sports Experts 17

Rays at Royals
Pick Under 8.5

Most of the times when 2 GREAT pitchers with a high era like today's matchup between Jeremy Hellickson ERA 5.01 (last 3 games) 7.42 and Jeremy Guthrie ERA 4.27 (last 3 games) 6.63 they come out STRONG with a very good pitching and they just get 2 or 3 earn RUNS in the entire game. This situation apply in 8 of 10 matchups like the one we have today, don't expect a high scoring game, both guys will give their best to win this one and make it a low scoring game.

Bruce Marshall

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: New York Yankees

We wonder if the Yankees might have been denied entry into Canada at Lester Pearson Airport after beating up the Blue Jays so badly. It's 10 wins in a row and 12 of 13 for New York over Toronto, including a 4-game sweep last week in The Bronx. And even after losing two of three over the weekend in St. Pete vs. the Rays, the Yanks lost no ground in the AL wild card race, with the A's still just 3 1/2 games ahead. Yankee starter Phil Hughes hasn't received much support lately, but he had one of his better performances Tuesday against Toronto, allowing two runs over 6 IP. Meanwhile, Toronto's R.A. Dickey is 0-2 with a 5.14 ERA in his last three starts against the Yankees, losing both matchups this season. Dickey has also lost his last three starts (including last Wednesday vs. the Yanks) while posting a mediocre 4.50 ERA in those games.

Jim Feist

San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: San Diego Padres

The Diamondbacks are home from a trip to the East Coast and haven't had a good week. Starter Brandon McCarthy (2-8, 5.44 ERA) has been awful and is getting worse, with an 0-3 record and a 7.80 ERA his last three starts. McCarthy lasted just 2 1/3 innings in his team's 10-7 loss to the Reds, giving up seven earned runs on eight hits and one walk while striking out two to fall to 2-8. San Diego has a fine arm in Tyson Ross (2.85 ERA), with a 76-33 strikeout to walk ratio in 85 innings. He has faced Arizona once and shut them out allowing only 4 hits.

Ben Burns

NY Yankees vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto

I won with the Jays yesterday and I like their chances again here. While they eked out a 3-2 win at Tampa yesterday, the Yankees haven't hit well on the road all season. In fact, the Jays average nearly an extra run per game at home than the Yankees do on the road.

While they didn't oppose each other, both starters just faced this team last time out. Dickey and Hughes did go head-to-head back in the spring, Hughes finishing on top of a 3-2 game. Dickey does have slightly better overall stats though, as he's got a 4.49 ERA and 1.27 WHIP compared to a 4.88 ERA and 1.389 WHIP for Hughes. Note that Dickey has a 1.091 WHIP his last three, compared to a 1.408 mark for Hughes.

The Yankees have beaten up on Toronto this season. I believe the Jays are hungry for some revenge and I like the positive momentum that they bring to the table, from yesterday's comeback win. Consider Toronto

Will Rogers

San Diego vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona

I like Arizona tonight against division rival San Diego. The chances are slim of them making it, but the Diamondbacks are still alive in the National League Wild Card chase. The same cannot be said for the Padres though as they are 12 games under .500 even after yesterday's win, which required 15 innings.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Fatigue - San Diego just played more than a game and a half Sunday while Arizona wrapped their game up around 1 PM local time in Philadelphia. Granted, the Diamondbacks lost in Philly, but they still have the edge. The Padres are 23-39 on the road.

2. Revenge - Arizona dropped two of three games to San Diego last month here at home and is just 4-8 overall this season against their division rival. But they are also 19-12 in double revenge situations.

3. X-Factor - San Diego has scored three runs or less in five of its last six games.

Bryan Power

Houston vs. Chi. White Sox
Pick: Houston

I simply cannot buy into this meaningless late season resurgence from the White Sox. Inexplicably, they have won eight of nine games after beating Texas yesterday 5-2. I feel this has caused them to be overvalued for Monday's opener with the Houston Astros and the underdog is worth a shot here.....

There are two reasons that the typically odious Astros appear attractive tonight. One is that they just took two of three from Toronto over the weekend. But the primary reason would be the fact Brett Oberholtzer is starting. In four starts so far, he has an ERA of 1.69 and a WHIP of 0.975. The team has won three of those four starts. His only loss was by a score of 2-1 to Texas. In 26+ innings, he's allowed just five runs. He's a southpaw and that's even better because Chicago is just 12-19 vs. lefties while averaging 3.8 runs per game.

Earlier this season, Houston took three of four from the White Sox, who will turn to Andre Rienzo this evening. Rienzo has pitched fairly well in his five starts so far, with one exception, that being his lone start here at home. There he allowed four runs in just five innings and also walked five batters. The White Sox are way overvalued here considering they have a losing record this season as a home favorite, dropping nearly 10 units.