Jack Jones
Texas Rangers -133
The Texas Rangers (75-55) are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the Seattle Mariners Monday. Texas sits in first place in the AL West by 2.5 games and has a lot more to play for than Seattle (59-70) at this time of the year.
The Mariners are hitting just .242 and scoring 3.9 runs/game this season. They really struggled at the dish over the weekend, scoring a combined two runs while getting swept by the Angels, being outscored 14-2 for the series.
I'll gladly fade Seattle's Joe Saunders, who is 10-12 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.570 WHIP in 26 starts this year. Saunders has really struggled of late, going 0-2 with a 7.98 ERA and 2.183 WHIP in his last three starts. The left-hander is 5-9 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.511 WHIP in 16 career starts against Texas.
The Rangers are hitting .278 and scoring 5.0 runs/game against left-handed starters in 2013. Texas is 41-16 (+16.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. The Rangers are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Mariners are 1-7 in Saunders' last 8 starts with 5 days of rest. Bet the Rangers Monday.
Dave Price
Chicago White Sox -152
The White Sox, winners of eight of their last nine, are playing their best ball of the season. Look for them to continue their surge against the lowly Astros, losers of 39 of their last 53 overall and 134 of their last 185 on the road. Houston's Oberholtzer has pitched well with a 2.91 ERA and 1.088 WHIP, but the White Sox are 4-0 in their last four games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Chicago's Rienzo actually has a lower ERA (2.67) and should find success against a club that's batting just .239. The White Sox are 10-4 in their last 14 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Take Chicago.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Diego +117 over ARIZONA
The Diamondbacks are coming off an exhausting series against the Phillies that left the rotation in shambles and that took a toll on every player in that dugout. Saturday’s marathon 19-inning game that lasted close to seven hours was followed up by an early afternoon game yesterday in which the D-Backs lost 9-5. Yesterday ended a 10-game road swing for the Snakes and they figure to be just as exhausted today as they were yesterday after Saturday’s grueling marathon. Since coming off the DL, Brandon McCarthy has started four games and the D-Backs have lost them all by scores of 10-7, 6-2, 4-1 and 4-0. McCarthy’s longest outing over that span was 5.2 innings and his ERA over that same stretch is 6.98. In two of those starts he didn’t make it out of the fifth inning. McCarthy’s strikeout rate is weak with just 55 K’s in 86 innings. At home he has one win in seven starts with a BAA of .297. McCarthy took a scary line drive off his head last September that ended his season. He was average then and he’s been worse since. The impact of three DL stints in two years for the same shoulder may afford McCarthy less margin for error. This is a guy to avoid, especially when spotting a tag.
You would be hard pressed to find a pitcher in the majors that has pitched better than San Diego’s Tyson Ross over the past month. Since re-joining the starting rotation on July 23, Ross has pitched 40 innings and has 42 K’s with just 12 walks issued, a 0.90 WHIP, a 2.10 ERA and an elite groundball rate of 58%. As a prospect in the Oakland system and even as a starter with the A's, Tyson Ross had the fastball and heavy sinker to excel as a big leaguer. What always seemed to be his downfall was a lack of control and shaky command but Ross has finally appeared to figure things out. He has emerged with his top-tier strikeout groundball levels. As a pooch against an exhausted Arizona squad and a struggling Brandon McCarthy, Ross is as live as they come.
COLORADO -1½ +132 over San Francisco
Barry Zito had a respectable first month of the season in terms of results but his skills were brutal then, just like they are now. He survived on luck in April but it’s been all downhill from there. In August, Zito's been working primarily out of the bullpen but now he's back in the rotation and we can only be thankful, as it allows us to fade this stiff a few more times before his contract runs out at the end of this year. He’ll never pitch again in the majors after this season because his skills are a train wreck out there. Zito's last start was a predictable disaster against the Red Sox in which he lasted 3.2 innings and allowed six earned runs. That was at pitcher friendly AT&T Park. On the road this season, Barry Zito is 0-7 with an ERA of 9.45 and that’s over nine starts and 11 road appearances. The Rockies are a different team at home, where they are first in the NL in several key offensive categories that include team batting average (.282), runs scored (329) and OPS (.790). Zito’s BAA on the road is .404 and there is only one way this outing can turn out for him and it’s not good.
After showing some promise last season, Juan Nicasio has taken a step back this year. He's brought his ERA down, but his skills are worse. That said, he is a different pitcher at home where he has thrown 54 innings with 48/18 K/BB, 6 HR allowed and 3.95 ERA. However, this wager has nothing to do with backing Nicasio and everything to do with fading the worst starting pitcher in the major leagues. If Zito were in the minors, he’d be the worst starting pitcher there too.
TORONTO/N.Y. Yankees Over 9
Phil Hughes is an interesting subject. Here’s a guy that has a rough 5.79 ERA and 1.36 WHIP at Yankee Stadium compared to a nifty 3.67 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the road. What’s so interesting about that is Hughes’ skills at Yankee Stadium have actually been better than they’ve been on the road. Those home and away numbers, according to his xERA, which is a true measure of skills, should actually be reversed. What we can expect from Hughes down the stretch is regression on the road to match his numbers at home. Over his last five starts covering 23 innings, Hughes has a 1.87 WHIP and a 7.43 ERA. Hughes has also allowed an alarming 23 jacks over 131 innings this season and that spells trouble at this venue. In two starts here since 2012, Hughes has posted an ERA of 12.46.
The Blue Jays are playing for nothing. They’ve had a miserable year and were just swept in a four-game set in New York for their 12th loss of the season versus the Yankees in 13 attempts. The Blue Jays are sick of losing to this visitor. The only gratification they can get from this lost season is a strong showing in this series in an attempt to make life just as miserable for the Yankees. The Blue Jays will leave nothing on the table in this series and they have the bats to do some serious damage, even without Jose Bautista. They will score some runs in this series and they are not likely to be fooled by Phil Hughes. Then there’s R.A. Dickey. Dickey cannot keep the ball in the yard at the Rogers Center. In just 82.1 innings at home, Dickey has allowed 19 bombs. The Yankees are sure to go deep once or twice in this game, just like every other opponent has against Dickey this year. The Blue Jays are actually a tempting proposition today, spotting 1½-runs and taking back +180. However, one, three run jack by the Yanks and that makes the 1½-runs difficult to overcome. These two pitchers today both can’t keep the ball in the park. Both also have an atrocious history here and nothing suggests this one will be any different.
Wunderdog
San Francisco at Colorado
Pick: San Francisco +138
Barry Zito is back in the rotation, and he worked seven scoreless innings here earlier in the season, and has proven he can hold down this Rockies' attack. Nicasio owns a 3.38 ERA vs. the Giants in three starts this season. The Rockies have been brutal facing left handed pitching, where they are just 25-54 in their last 79, and they have failed to win six straight times behind Nicasio on regular four days rest. Zito has gotten redemption following an ugly start where he failed to last four innings, as the Giants are 7-1 in his last eight in this spot. The Giants add to their 38-16 mark in the last 54 meetings. Play on San Francisco.
MLB Predictions
Colorado Rockies -147
The Giants enter this game 58-72 on the season and 25-37 on the road. Colorado is 61-71 on the year and 36-27 on the season. Southpaw veteran Barry Zito will get the start tonight for the Giants and he is having a very rough season. He is 4-9 on the year with a 5.63 ERA, .318 OBA and 1.72 WHIP. On the road he is an awful 0-7 with a 9.45 ERA, .404 OBA, and 2.30 WHIP. In 7 appearances (3 starts) since the All Star break he is 0-2 with a 10.26 ERA, and in his latest start he went just 3.2 innings giving up 7 hits and 6 earned runs at home vs Boston. The Rockies will counter with Juan Nicasio who is 7-6 on the season with a 4.79 ERA. Despite being a hitters friendly park, Nicasio has excelled at home going 3-1 with a 3.95 ERA over 10 starts this year, with batters hitting just .212 against him. Take note that the Giants are just 8-22 in their last 30 games as a road underdog, 1-6 in Zito's last 7 starts, and 1-9 in his last 10 road starts. The Rockies are 6-1 in their last 7 home games, and 5-1 in Nicasio's last 6 starts vs divisional opponents. Colorado has won 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Giants at home. We will lay the chalk here on Colorado at home vs the Giants with Zito on the mound, who has been just awful on the road this year and overall as of late.
Jeff Alexander
St. Louis Cardinals -105
Cincy's Leake has been good on the road, but he's been hit hard in his last two outings and has a poor record against the Cards. He's lost both starts against them this season and gave up seven earned in five innings of a 15-2 loss against them earlier this month. St. Louis has won eight of 12 in the season series, and it is 35-16 in its last 51 home meetings versus the Reds. The Cardinals are also 41-15 in their last 56 home games versus right-handed starters.
Craig Davis
Free play of the day today on the Cincinnati Reds over the St. Louis Cardinals in a huge NL Central battle.
I'm not going to lie, I'm always worried about releasing against the Cardinals at home as they continue to play well in St. Louis, year after year.
Vegas was in a peculiar situation with this one... knowing the Reds are throwing one of their best pitchers vs. a pitcher with a 5.00+ ERA. But the game is in St. Louis!!
Honestly, I believe we're getting tremendous value with Mike Leake on the hill.
Tyler Lyons, the Cardinals lefty starter tonight is just 2-4 on the season with a 5.09 ERA, will replace the injured Jake Westbrook on the bump. Despite having some success in his first two starts of the year, he's since gone 0-4 with a 7.66 ERA over his last five MLB starts.
In fact, one of those losses was to these Reds, 4-2, back in June.
Mike Leake (11-5, 3.12 ERA) has admittedly been awful this month and probably is getting excited to get to September.
The last time he faced the Cardinals I had the under in that game... and the Cards tagged him (and the bullpen) for 15 runs in a 15-2 loss. Needless to say, he was WAY OFF that day and the game DIDN'T quite finish under the total.
In his last start vs. Arizona, he wasn't great, but did get back on track with a 10-7 win by allowing four runs over 6+ innings of work.
Value play here... take the Reds over the Cardinals as your 4♦ free play of the day.
4♦ CINCINNATI
Brad Wilton
Monday's comp play will be to back Cliff Lee and the Phillies to add to the Mets woes.
Philly just ended a 10 game homestand with a win on Sunday in Roy Halladay's return to the rotation, as the Phillies head to New York having won 6 of their last 8 games.
New York has dropped 4 straight, and has been outscored in those losses by a 24-5 count. The Mets have now lost 6 of their last 8 games overall.
Cliff Lee will face rookie Zack Wheeler, as Lee looks for his first win since way back on July 5th. The veteran southpaw is riding an 0-4 skid his last 6 starts, while Wheeler comes into this one with a 2-0 mark his last 3, and an ERA just a shade over 2.
Lee is due, and he is catching the Mets at the right time, as the New York offense of just 5 runs in their last 4 games should be just the recipe for success for Lee and his mates this Monday night.
Back Philly to hand the Mets loss #5 in a row.
3♦ PHILADELPHIA
Chris Jordan
My free pick is on the St. Louis Cardinals in their series opener against the Cincinnati Reds in National League Central play.
The National League Central is crazy busy with playoff contention, and this series can tell us a lot. Personally, I think the St. Louis Cardinals are going to create some distance in the division and might even pull away from the surprising Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Cardinals come into this series riding a 10-4 win streak, and catch the Cincinnati Reds, who have lost two of three after a disappointing series against the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend. Now, to have to play at Busch Stadium, this will be trouble.
The Cardinals have won eight of the last 12 meetings, so the mental edge is with the Redbirds. Lay the cheap chalk.
5♦ ST. LOUIS
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the New York Yankees laying the cheap -110 in Toronto, against the fledgling Blue Jays, who continue their disappointing season.
And while the preseason-hyped Blue Jays have turned into a flop, the Yankees remain in playoff contention and should have plenty of confidence for this series, regardless of it being played in Rogers Centre, as New York swept a four-game set against Toronto at home last week.
The Bronx Bombers improved to 12-1 in the season series with the four-game sweep. And I believe the Yankees will come in fired up after salvaging the finale of their three-game road series against the Tampa Bay Rays yesterday, when Alfonso Soriano scored on Curtis Granderson's sacrifice fly in the 11th inning.
The Yankees are seven games out of first place in the American League East, behind the Boston Red Sox, and are 3-1/2 games back of the Oakland Athletics for the second wild-card spot. Too much motivation for the Bombers to ignore this price.
3♦ N.Y. YANKEES