Jeff AlexanderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago White Sox +107
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The white-hot White Sox are showing value at this price. They have won 6 in a row overall, and they are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog. Liriano has been fantastic since coming over from Minnesota. Chicago is 4-1 in his last 5 starts, and he held the opposition to 2 runs or less in each of those 4 victories. Baltimore's Chen hasn't been as sharp lately, as evidenced by the 7.47 ERA he has posted over his last 3 starts. Bet Chicago on the money line.
Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Yankees -1.5 -110
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I'm playing against the struggling Blue Jays, who have lost 7 in a row by an average of 3.1 runs. Their struggles figure to continue with Henderson Alvarez on the hill. The Jays have lost each of his last 4 starts by an average of 4.8 runs, and he has been clocked for at least 6 runs in 2 of his last 3 starts. They have also lost each of his 2 career starts against the Yankees, during which he has posted an ERA of 5.25.
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The Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 against the Yankees, and 3-13 in their last 16 against the Yankees in New York. The Yankees are a ridiculous 57-15 in their last 72 games as a favorite of -201 or greater, but I'm taking them on the run line as I like them to win this one by at least 2 runs.
Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay Rays -110
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The Tampa Bay Rays are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the Texas Rangers tonight. The Rays have a huge edge on the mound in this one, which is the main reason for this selection.
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David Price is putting up AL Cy Young-worthy numbers in 2012. The left-hander is 16-4 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in 25 starts this season. Price has won eight consecutive decisions since June 13th, and he's 2-0 with a 0.60 ERA in his last four starts, giving up just two earned runs over 30 innings.
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Derek Holland is 8-6 with a 4.92 ERA over 20 starts and one relief appearance for Texas. The left-hander is also 4-4 with a 5.50 ERA in 11 home starts this season. Holland sports a 5.90 ERA and 1.613 WHIP in seven career starts against Tampa Bay as well.
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Price is 13-2 against the money line after 2 or more consecutive team losses over the last 2 seasons. The Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Tampa is 7-0 in its last 7 during game 1 of a series. The Rays are 17-4 in Price's last 21 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Bet Tampa Bay Monday.
Rob Vinciletti
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
This ones too highly favored to unit rate. However for a free system play we note that the Dodgers fit a nice system that has won ten of the last eleven times and plays on road favorites off a home favored loss, vs an opponent off a road loss that scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits. The Dodgers are averaging over 5 runs per game the past week and are going for it with their big spike in players and payroll. One of the new additions will be making his first start for the Dodgers in J. Beckett. In his road starts here in Colorado Beckett has thrown a quality start every time and is one of the few pitchers that has not struggled here as he has won 3 of 4 and 5 of 6 overall vs the Rockies. Beckett will be looking forward to the fresh start and should do well here tonight. He will oppose J. Francis, who has a 7 era here at home and is 0-4 in his most recent home starts vs the Dodgers. Francis has also dropped 3 of his last 4 August home starts. Look for the Dodgers to take game one tonight.
Teddy Covers
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Tampa Bay vs. Texas
Pick: OverFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I know that Tampa’s David Price has been nothing short of brilliant since the All Star break, sporting a 5-0 record and a 1.23 ERA in his last eight starts. But his track record against the Rangers leaves much to be desired, with just a single victory to go along with his 5.52 ERA in seven regular season starts against them. His track record at the Ballpark in Arlington is even worse, with a 9.24 ERA; lasting only 12.2 innings in three previous starts on this field. And those numbers don’t even include his 0-3 mark against Texas in the 2010 and 2011 playoffs!FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Rangers starter Derek Holland has a pretty miserable track record of his own against this Rays lineup. Tampa scored five runs against him in his lone start against them this year. The Rays pounded him for nine runs in 12.1 innings of work in two regular season starts against them last year. It was a similar story in 2010: one start, 4.1 innings of work, five runs allowed. It’s certainly not like Holland is in good form right now, with a 5.43 ERA at home this year, while allowing five runs or more four times in his last seven trips to the hill.
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Both of these lineups are capable of approaching or exceeding this total all by themselves. The Rangers have scored five runs or more in seven of their last eight contests; pounding out 44 runs in their last five games alone. And once the Rays leave pitcher friendly Tampa, their offense has been on fire, hammering a solid Angels pitching staff for 44 runs (at least seven in every game) on their last road trip…a trip that started with 23 runs in three games at Minnesota. Expect fireworks! Take the Over.
Joe GavazziFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle -155FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In this contest we have as wide a pitching diversity as you will see in MLB. For the year King Felix is 12-5 with a 2.54 ERA. It is even better more recently where Hernandez is 8-0 with a 1.53 ERA., .184 BAA and a 95/16 KBB his last 13 outings. He should make short work of a Minnesota team who enters on negative runs 3-14, 2-10, 1-5. Seattle dropped a trio of 1 run decisions over the weekend to division leader CWS. They could have won every game against the surging White Sox. Despite those losses, Seattle is still on positive runs since the ASB of 25-16, 12-4, and 8-3. They will clearly enjoy the slants of Hendriks who has a record of 0-6 with a 7.06 ERA. In fact, Hendriks has yet to post a career win in 14 starts. Play this one with Confidence!
Black WidowFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Reds +105
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The Cincinnati Reds are showing excellent value Monday as an underdog to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Cincinnati (77-52) has a commanding lead in the NL Central division after winning 33 of its last 47 overall. At 10-7 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in 25 starts this season, Bronson Arroyo is having a very solid year for the Reds. Arroyo is 3-0 with a 2.82 ERA and 0.940 WHIP in his last three starts. At 64-64 on the season, the Diamondbacks are in a bad spot in terms of trying to make the postseason. They realize their chances are slipping away, especially after three straight home losses to San Diego over the weekend. The Reds are 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Cincinnati is 7-0 in their last 7 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The Reds are 6-1 in Arroyo's last 7 starts. Cincinnati is 9-2 in their last 11 meetings in Arizona. Take the Reds on the Money Line.
Blade, do you have an email that I can contact you at?
Wunderdog
Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago Cubs +120
Futility has followed the Chicago Cubs for a while, while the Brewers are experiencing it for the first time in a few years. This Milwaukee team was a playoff team a year ago, but that's not the case this season. As a result, it would be easy to see them go on the road as a very unmotivated team down the stretch. This is a team that recently lost five out of six road games to Houston and Colorado, so the Cubs as a dog here certainly are carrying some potential bite. Marco Estrada is getting a long look from the Brewers, but he has yet to win on the road where he is 0-3 carrying a 4.6 ERA. The Cubs are a winning team at home on the seasson, and when they have faced a team below .500 at home they are 12-3 in their last 15. Milwaukee is just 5-13 this season on the road vs. teams that are under .470. Play on Chicago.
DAVID BANKS
Rays / Rangers Over 8.5
The Tampa Bay Rays (70-57) are in the American League East title hunt, but they are also in a tight battle in the wild card race as they prepare to take on the division leading Texas Rangers (75-51) at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, TX Monday at 8:00 ET on ESPN. Pending Sunday's results, the Rays trail the New York Yankees by 3 games in the American League East and Tampa Bay tops the wild card chase by one-half game over both the Oakland Athletics and the Baltimore Orioles with the Detroit Tigers just 1 behind. Meanwhile, Texas has a six-game lead over Oakland in the American League West.
The Rays had a chance to open up some daylight in a head-to-head series with the A's, but they dropped the last two game at home in Tropicana Field after winning the series opener. So while they embark on this road trip on a sour note, at least they have their ace and one of the best pitchers in baseball going on Monday in David Price, who is in the hunt for the Cy Young Award. Price is an amazing 16-4 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and he has 167 strikeouts vs. 50 walks in 170 innings. Price is in raging current form as he has allowed a grand total of two runs and only 15 hits in 30 innings over his last four starts with 26 strikeouts vs. five walks. Furthermore, in three of those starts, Price pitched at least seven scoreless innings while allowing three hits or less! Texas is obviously renowned for its offense, but that has not prevented Price from recording Quality Starts in each of his last five outings against the Rangers, the last one of which came this year here in Arlington back in April when he allowed only two runs and six hits in 6.1 innings with six strikeouts and one walk. The southpaw did that vs. a Texas lineup that currently leads the Major Leagues with a .279 batting average including .282 vs. left handed pitching.
The Rangers hit a bit of an offensive funk for a while, but they have snapped out of it while winning seven of their last eight games entering a Sunday meeting with Minnesota, scoring at least eight runs in five of those wins including the last four in a row. Monday's starter Derek Holland hopes to be the next beneficiary of great run support, but that may obviously be a difficult task vs. Price. Holland does not have impressive overall numbers as he is just 8-6 with a 4.92 ERA, but he has been a bit better lately while going 1-0 in his last three starts, as he has a 3.54 ERA and a tiny 0.79 WHIP in 20.1 innings over those outings. He did not pitch well the only time he faced the Rays this season though on April 29th, allowing five earned runs on nine hits in seven innings. Offensive outbursts like that have been rather rare however for a Tampa Bay team that ranks third to last in the Major Leagues with a ,236 batting average, just two percentage points better than Seattle and four percentage points better than Oakland, which is dead last at .232.
The Rays took two out of three here in Arlington the only time these teams have met this season way back in April. The last two games of that series stayed 'under', bringing the 'under' to 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings. Also, the 'under' is 24-11 in the Rays' last 35 games overall and 17-8 in the Rangers' last 25 home games, pending Sunday's result.
Matt Rivers
Free play winner for Monday is the Cardinals over the Pirates.
These teams played that 19-inning marathon just over a week ago, and while Pittsburgh won that battle, they are now losing the war versus the Cardinals, as the Pirates have lost five of six since that lengthy win, while the Cards have been winners in five of their last six since that loss.
Pittsburgh starter A.J. Burnett has been starting to show a little wear and tear, as he has allowed 14 earned runs on 28 hits in just under 19 innings of work.
As for St. Louis starter Kyle Lohse, he has not lost a decision since June 15th, going 7-0 with a 2.21 ERA his last dozen starts. Lohse also defeated Pittsburgh in his lone start versus the Pirates back in late April.
Pittsburgh once-vaunted home mark has also taken a hit this month, as the Pirates are on a 3-8 slide at PNC Park their last eleven home games.
Riding the Redbirds to make it a 6-1 run and send the Bucs to their sixth loss in their last seven games tonight.
4♦ ST. LOUIS
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Under in Tampa Bay-Texas.
Texas starter Derek Holland is a bit suspect, but the Rays MO has been to get great pitching and score just enough to get the win. Not surprisingly, Tampa has played Under the total in four of their last six games overall.
Look for tonight's game to follow that format, as Rays hurler David Price has been untouchable this summer. Price comes into this start without having allowed a run in either of his last two starts, and the southpaw has allowed just two runs total in his last 30 innings pitched.
Tampa has played Under the total in each of Price's last four starts, and the Under is now 8-3 the last eleven times Price has taken the hill.
These teams have also played Under the total in four of their last five meetings dating back to last Ocotber's postseason.
Pitchers dominate tonight. Tampa Bay-Texas Under the total.
4♦ TAMPA BAY-TEXAS UNDER
Dom Chambers
The Braves came through for my fourth straight free-pick winner. That puts my current run at 33-14.
For today’s free play, let’s look at the over in the Los Angeles Dodgers-Colorado Rockies game.
You have two name pitchers here, with both having their problems this season.
Josh Beckett makes his debut for the Dodgers. With the Red Sox, he was having a bad year. He is 5-11 with a 5.23 ERA with the Sox. In his last three starts, he was 0-2 with a 9.92 ERA.
I don’t know if change of uniforms will improve his game. But it won’t make that much of a difference.
For the Rockies, Jeff Francis starts, he is 4-4 with a 5.79 ERA. At home, he is even worse, going 2-3 with a 6.99 ERA.
There are going to be some runs scored in this game, especially with the influx of offense the Dodgers have added to the lineup.
Both pitchers are going to give up some runs and it won’t take that much to get to this total.
Take the over.
2♦ DODGERS-ROCKIES OVER
Craig Davis
7-1 free play run the past 8 days.
Monday's free play is the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Admittedly, the Cardinals have been playing much better recently while the Pirates are in a bit of a funk. Still, I can't forget the 19-inning thriller between these two teams back on August 19 in which the Pirates outlasted St. Louis by the count of 6-3.
That win gave Pittsburgh a 2-game lead over the Cards in the Wild Card race, but since then St. Louis has gone 5-1 while Pittsburgh has dropped five of six and now the Cardinals own a two-game lead in the Wild Card standings... and all this happened in the matter of a week.
Now tonight the Pirates have to deal with St. Louis's best starter, Kyle Lohse (13-2, 2.61 ERA), who has been red hot since late-June. He's already 2-0 this month with a 1.01 ERA... and this coming from a pitcher who has been flat out awful the last couple of seasons. I'm baffled, honestly.
Having said that, despite his recent successes, there are a few Pirates hitters who love facing him. Andrew McCutchen is 8 for 25 lifetime against him... Jose Tabata is batting .500 (9 for 18) and Neil Walker is 8 for 29. With so much on the line, I will take my chances with the Pittsburgh bats at home.
A.J. Burnett (15-4, 3.63), who had been absolutely dominant much of the year, has clearly not been himself as of late, and the Pirates have to be wondering which Burnett is going to show up tonight. He was filthy against the Cards in his first meeting with them, striking out seven in seven innings of a 2-0 home win back in April. However, he was tagged for a career-worst 12 runs in just over 2 2/3 innings back in May. Strange.
The good news is... Burnett is 8-1 with a 2.81 ERA in 12 home starts this year.
Tough call, but I like the price. Take the Pirates as your free play of the day.
2♦ PITTSBURGH
Chris Jordan
Not going to lie, I've always been a big Los Angeles Dodgers fan, and I think they pulled off the best possible trade anyone could have asked for. Their lineup has been bolstered with the additions of Shane Victorino, Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez.
Tonight the other piece to the puzzle comes together, as veteran Josh Beckett gets his first start with the Dodgers, and I think this is a great spot for him to get his second chance. Much like we saw A.J. Burnett do with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Though Beckett has struggled this season, he also carried a lot of burden on his shoulders, not to mention his menal game. He flat out took a lot of the blame for what took place last season, and this is a guy who has always been accountable for his actions. He has a lot of pride and will step to the hill with a big chip on his shoulder.
He's a guy that feeds of self-motivation, and that will be large tonight, especially with the status of No. 2 starter Chad Billingsley in question. Beckett is in a new clubhouse, and he's going to want his new teammates excited to have him there.
I suspect he's going to come out throwing hard to get through the first inning, and should coast from there. Take the Dodgers on the Run Line, be sure Beckett is L.A.'s pitcher of record, and in the event Colorado has a scratch, it's your responsibility to re-wager the game.
3♦ L.A. DODGERS -1.5